49ers
1-0
27
Rams
0-1
7
Final
Pregame model pick
LAR 55.5%
Missed
- Model spread
- LAR -2
- Model total
- 47.6
- ATS pick
- Pass
- -0.6 pt edge
- Total pick
- Pass
- -0.9 pt edge
Model breakdown
Why the model likes LAR
The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.
- Market priorhelps LAR+1.9 pts · +5.5%
Opening line LAR -2.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 0 games
Model vs. market
LAR win probability
- GameLens
- 56%
- Market
- 66%
- Difference
- -10%
Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.
Matchup Lens
The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.
Matchup edges appear once both teams have played.
Live win probability
Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.
Win probability
100.0% SF win probability
Key moments
Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.
Key moments
- touchdownQ2 4:28
B.Purdy pass deep middle to D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.
WPA -13.6%EPA +3.90 - defenseQ2 12:09
B.Purdy pass short right intended for G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by Q.Lake at LA 31. Q.Lake to LA 31 for no gain (G.Kittle).
WPA +7.8%EPA -9.49 - touchdownQ3 11:03
B.Purdy pass short left to M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.
WPA -7.5%EPA +1.72 - big playQ1 1:31
(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Stafford pass deep right to P.Nacua to SF 8 for 41 yards (M.Sigle; R.Green).
WPA +5.9%EPA +3.28 - touchdownQ4 12:57
(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short right to D.Samuel for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.
WPA -4.9%EPA +2.28 - touchdownQ2 14:57
K.Williams up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.
WPA +4.4%EPA +1.40
Highlights
Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.
Highlights
Highlight clips post during and after the game.
Player props
Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.
Player props
Passing target maps
Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.
Target maps
35 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
31 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
Play-by-play
EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.
Play-by-play
Play-call model: 79/121 (65%) run/pass correct
- Q4 0:00LAR27–7
END GAME
WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP0.0% - Q4 0:14LAR2nd & 6 at SF 1527–7
R.Rivers left end to SF 13 for 2 yards (R.Green).
EPA-4.82WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards2PredictedPass 93%×incorrect - Q4 0:47LAR1st & 10 at SF 1927–7
R.Rivers right guard to SF 15 for 4 yards (K.Kareem; J.Dugger).
EPA-0.21WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards4PredictedPass 92%×incorrect - Q4 0:47LAR1st & 10 at SF 1927–7
Timeout #1 by LA at 00:47.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 1:05LAR2nd & 2 at SF 2427–7
(No Huddle, Shotgun) S.Bennett pass short middle to R.Rivers to SF 19 for 5 yards (J.Dugger; M.Mustapha). LA-K.Dotson was injured during the play.
EPA+2.00WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards5Air zoneshort middleTargetR.RiversPredictedPass 89%✓correct - Q4 1:26LAR1st & 10 at SF 3227–7
(Shotgun) S.Bennett pass short middle to J.Whittington to SF 24 for 8 yards (M.Mustapha).
EPA+0.30WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards8Air zoneshort middleTargetJ.WhittingtonPredictedPass 92%✓correct - Q4 2:00LAR4th & 2 at SF 3727–7
R.Rivers right tackle to SF 32 for 5 yards (D.Lenoir; M.Sigle). ** Injury Update: LA-K.Mumpfield has returned to the game.
EPA+2.18WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards5PredictedPass 80%×incorrect - Q4 2:00LAR4th & 2 at SF 3727–7
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 2:18LAR3rd & 3 at SF 3827–7
(Shotgun) R.Rivers right guard to SF 37 for 1 yard (G.Wallow).
EPA+1.94WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards1PredictedPass 91%×incorrect - Q4 2:22LAR2nd & 3 at SF 3827–7
(No Huddle, Shotgun) S.Bennett pass incomplete short middle to K.Mumpfield [O.Okoronkwo]. LA-K.Mumpfield was injured during the play.
EPA-0.70WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards0Air zoneshort middleTargetK.Mumpfield (inc)PredictedPass 72%✓correct - Q4 2:46LAR1st & 10 at SF 4527–7
(Shotgun) R.Rivers right guard to SF 38 for 7 yards (C.West).
EPA+0.17WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards7PredictedPass 79%×incorrect - Q4 3:05LAR2nd & 6 at LAR 4627–7
(No Huddle, Shotgun) S.Bennett scrambles up the middle to SF 45 for 9 yards (J.Brown).Penalty on SF, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.
EPA+1.14WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards9PredictedPass 82%×incorrect - Q4 3:29LAR1st & 10 at LAR 4227–7
B.Corum up the middle to LA 46 for 4 yards (F.Warner; J.Brown).
EPA-0.21WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards4PredictedPass 79%×incorrect - Q4 3:34SF4th & 4 at LAR 3427–7
E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 3:34SF4th & 4 at LAR 3427–7
Timeout #2 by SF at 03:34.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 4:03SF4th & 4 at LAR 3427–7
Official Timeout at 04:03.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 4:24SF3rd & 4 at LAR 3427–7
(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short right to C.McCaffrey to LA 34 for no gain (J.Stewart). LA-N.Landman was injured during the play.
EPA+1.60WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards0Air zoneshort rightTargetC.McCaffreyPredictedRun 78%×incorrect - Q4 5:08SF2nd & 8 at LAR 3827–7
K.Black left guard to LA 34 for 4 yards (S.Dolac; K.Turner).
EPA-0.19WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards4PredictedRun 68%✓correct - Q4 5:52SF4th & 1 at LAR 4127–7
K.Black right guard to LA 38 for 3 yards (K.Turner).
EPA+1.38WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards3PredictedRun 79%✓correct - Q4 6:34SF3rd & 1 at LAR 4127–7
B.Purdy up the middle to LA 40 for 1 yard (B.Fiske).
EPA-0.85WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards1PredictedRun 82%✓correct - Q4 7:14SF2nd & 3 at LAR 4327–7
C.McCaffrey up the middle to LA 41 for 2 yards (S.Dolac; N.Landman).
EPA-0.45WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards2PredictedRun 84%✓correct - Q4 7:54SF1st & 10 at 5027–7
C.McCaffrey left guard to LA 43 for 7 yards (D.Johnson; K.Curl).
EPA+0.17WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards7PredictedRun 78%✓correct - Q4 7:54SF1st & 10 at SF 4927–7
Official Timeout at 07:54.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 7:58LAR4th & 5 at SF 4927–7
(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to T.Ferguson [O.Odighizuwa].
EPA-7.28WPA (home)-0.2%Home WP0.1%Yards0Air zonedeep rightTargetT.Ferguson (inc)PredictedPass 97%✓correct - Q4 8:34LAR3rd & 10 at LAR 4627–7
(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short right to P.Nacua to SF 49 for 5 yards (M.Sigle).
EPA-0.21WPA (home)-0.2%Home WP0.3%Yards5Air zoneshort rightTargetP.NacuaPredictedPass 96%✓correct - Q4 8:39LAR2nd & 10 at LAR 4627–7
(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to D.Adams.
EPA-0.70WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP0.5%Yards0Air zonedeep rightTargetD.Adams (inc)PredictedPass 86%✓correct - Q4 8:45LAR1st & 10 at LAR 4627–7
(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to P.Nacua (J.Jones).
EPA-0.72WPA (home)-0.3%Home WP0.7%Yards0Air zoneshort middleTargetP.Nacua (inc)PredictedPass 78%✓correct - Q4 9:08LAR2nd & 6 at LAR 3627–7
(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short left to D.Adams to LA 46 for 10 yards (R.Green).
EPA+1.21WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP0.9%Yards10Air zoneshort leftTargetD.AdamsPredictedPass 80%✓correct - Q4 9:38LAR1st & 10 at LAR 3227–7
(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short right to K.Williams to LA 36 for 4 yards (D.Lenoir).
EPA-0.21WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.8%Yards4Air zoneshort rightTargetK.WilliamsPredictedPass 77%✓correct - Q4 9:43SF27–7
E.Pineiro kicks 64 yards from SF 35 to LA 1. J.Whittington to LA 32 for 31 yards (K.Hodge).
WPA (home)+0.2%Home WP0.8%
Box score
Box score
| Team stats | SF | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 379 | 290 |
| Yards / play | 5.9 | 5.1 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| 3rd down | 7-12 | 2-9 |
| Red zone | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Possession | 33:50 | 26:10 |
San Francisco 49ers
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 B.Purdy | 25/34 | 205 | 3 | 1 |
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 C.McCaffrey | 10 | 68 | 6.8 | 0 |
 K.Black | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 0 |
| B.Purdy | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
 D.Samuel Sr. | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 D.Robinson | 2/3 | 50 | 1 |
 M.Evans | 6/7 | 49 | 1 |
| D.Samuel Sr. | 6/7 | 48 | 1 |
| C.McCaffrey | 5/8 | 20 | 0 |
 L.Farrell | 2/2 | 19 | 0 |
Los Angeles Rams
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 M.Stafford | 15/25 | 155 | 0 | 1 |
 S.Bennett IV | 2/3 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 B.Corum | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 |
 K.Williams | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 1 |
 R.Rivers | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| S.Bennett IV | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| M.Stafford | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 P.Nacua | 5/9 | 74 | 0 |
 D.Adams | 3/6 | 26 | 0 |
| K.Williams | 3/3 | 24 | 0 |
 D.Allen | 1/1 | 13 | 0 |
 T.Higbee | 2/2 | 12 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 Q.Lake | 10 | 0 | 1 |
 K.Kinchens | 9 | 0 | 0 |
 N.Landman | 8 | 0 | 0 |
 K.Turner | 7 | 0 | 0 |