Track record

Model Performance

Every game is graded out of sample. The model predicts each week using only games played before it and is scored against the opening line, so these results show how it would have performed in real time. Week 1 is excluded because there is no prior data for the season.

Straight up

54.8%

17-14 · 31 games

Against the spread

50.0%

10-10 · 52.4% break-even

Over / under

31.3%

5-11

Brier score

0.241

Lower is better · 0.250 = coin flip

Avg. margin error: 10.2 pts
Avg. total error: 11.6 pts
Log loss: 0.671
ATS ROI: -4.5%
O/U ROI: -40.3%
Closing line value: View CLV report

ROI assumes a flat bet at -110 on every pick. Results are analytical and do not guarantee future outcomes.

Calibration

When the model says a team has a 65% chance, it should win about 65% of the time.

50–55%44% actual · 53% expected · 9 G
55–60%63% actual · 58% expected · 8 G
60–65%50% actual · 63% expected · 6 G
65–70%50% actual · 67% expected · 2 G
70–80%50% actual · 72% expected · 4 G
80–100%100% actual · 84% expected · 2 G
The dark tick marks the expected win rate. Small samples will be noisy.

By confidence

How often the pick won at each confidence level.

High—
Medium100% · 4 G
Low48% · 27 G

By week

Week	Straight up	ATS
Week 2	9-7	4-6
Week 3	8-7	6-4

By team picked

Straight-up record when the model picked each team to win.

BUF2-0
SF2-0
KC2-0
PHI1-0
NE1-0
DAL1-0
DET1-0
NYG1-0
MIN1-0
GB1-1
BAL1-1
JAX1-1
SEA1-1
LAR1-1
HOU0-2
ATL0-1
CHI0-1
TB0-1
LAC0-1
CAR0-1
CIN0-1
NO0-1

Every graded pick

Most recent first.

Wk	Game	Pick	Win prob	Result	ATS	O/U
3	LAR @ DEN	LAR	56%	Miss	—	loss
3	LV @ NO	NO	54%	Miss	win	—
3	BAL @ DAL	BAL	59%	Hit	—	—
3	MIN @ TB	MIN	55%	Hit	win	—
3	ARI @ SF	SF	84%	Hit	loss	loss
3	NE @ JAX	JAX	52%	Hit	—	win
3	SEA @ WSH	SEA	65%	Miss	loss	loss
3	CIN @ PIT	CIN	61%	Miss	loss	loss
3	TEN @ NYG	NYG	56%	Hit	—	win
3	KC @ MIA	KC	76%	Hit	win	—
3	HOU @ IND	HOU	52%	Miss	win	loss
3	NYJ @ DET	DET	59%	Hit	win	win
3	CAR @ CLE	CAR	59%	Miss	loss	loss
3	LAC @ BUF	BUF	64%	Hit	win	—
3	ATL @ GB	GB	72%	Miss	—	—
2	NYG @ LAR	LAR	58%	Hit	loss	—
2	IND @ KC	KC	71%	Hit	loss	—
2	MIA @ SF	SF	84%	Hit	win	—
2	SEA @ ARI	SEA	68%	Hit	loss	win
2	WSH @ DAL	DAL	58%	Hit	loss	—
2	LV @ LAC	LAC	59%	Miss	win	—
2	JAX @ DEN	JAX	54%	Miss	loss	—
2	CIN @ HOU	HOU	51%	Miss	win	loss
2	NO @ BAL	BAL	70%	Miss	—	loss
2	CLE @ TB	TB	66%	Miss	—	loss
2	GB @ NYJ	GB	54%	Hit	win	—
2	PIT @ NE	NE	54%	Hit	loss	win
2	PHI @ TEN	PHI	65%	Hit	—	—
2	MIN @ CHI	CHI	62%	Miss	—	loss
2	CAR @ ATL	ATL	54%	Miss	—	loss
2	DET @ BUF	BUF	61%	Hit	—	—