PHI @ TEN

Eagles

2-0

Titans

0-2

Final

Pregame model pick

PHI 64.9%

Correct

Low

Model spread: TEN +5
Model total: 42.4
ATS pick: Pass; -0.7 pt edge
Total pick: Pass; -0.1 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

PHI spread-7

PHI ML-325

Over39.5

TEN spread+7

TEN ML+260

Under39.5

Why the model likes PHI

The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.

Market priorhelps PHI+3.4 pts · +9.6%
Opening line PHI -4.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 1 game
Pass defensehelps PHI+1.2 pts · +3.3%
TEN +0.69 vs PHI -0.44 EPA/dropback allowed (vs. league avg)
Run defensehelps PHI+0.7 pts · +1.9%
TEN +0.27 vs PHI -0.25 EPA/rush allowed (vs. league avg)
Rushing offensehurts PHI-0.6 pts · -1.5%
TEN +0.83 vs PHI +0.00 EPA/rush (vs. league avg)
Point differentialhelps PHI+0.5 pts · +1.3%
TEN -13.0 vs PHI +2.0 per game
Home fieldhurts PHI-0.4 pts · -1.2%
TEN at home (1.7 pts)
Passing offensehelps PHI+0.4 pts · +1.1%
TEN -0.78 vs PHI -0.73 EPA/dropback (vs. league avg)

Early-season sample (1 game), so the stats are shrunk toward average and the market carries more weight.

Model vs. market

PHI win probability

GameLens: 65%
Market: 73%
Difference: -8%

Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.

Matchup Lens

The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.

Edge: PHIClear
PHI big-play defense vs TEN explosive plays
TEN explosive-play rate
4.1% (29th)
PHI explosive-play rate allowed
7.5% (11th)
Edge: PHIClear
PHI secondary vs TEN passing attack
TEN EPA per dropback
-0.76 (28th)
PHI EPA per dropback allowed
-0.42 (11th)
Edge: TENSlight
TEN third-down defense vs PHI third-down offense
PHI third-down conversion rate
43% (12th)
TEN third-down rate allowed
17% (1st)

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% PHI win probability

TEN abovePHI below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

clutchQ4 0:09
(Shotgun) J.Hurts pass short middle to D.Cooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Underwood, Holder-B.Mann.
WPA -40.1%EPA +0.62
clutchQ4 0:20
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Hurts pass deep left to D.Smith pushed ob at TEN 3 for 19 yards (M.Robinson).
WPA -29.8%EPA +2.97
clutchQ4 2:44
(Shotgun) T.Spears left end pushed ob at PHI 9 for 27 yards (J.Hunt). PHI-J.Hunt was injured during the play.
WPA +21.5%EPA +4.05
clutchQ1 6:11
(Shotgun) J.Hurts pass short right intended for D.Smith INTERCEPTED by A.Hooker at TEN -2. A.Hooker to PHI 10 for 92 yards (M.Lemon).
WPA +19.8%EPA -10.00
clutchQ4 4:31
C.Ward pass deep right to E.Ayomanor pushed ob at PHI 24 for 41 yards (J.Campbell).
WPA +14.8%EPA +2.95
clutchQ4 1:48
(Shotgun) J.Hurts pass deep right to D.Wicks to TEN 41 for 20 yards (M.Harris).
WPA -14.5%EPA +2.63

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Highlight clips post during and after the game.

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
Dontayvion Wicks PHI	Receiving Yards	O 31.5	39.8	70%	+17.7%	74Hit
Dallas Goedert PHI	Receiving Yards	O 38.5(+2.0 from open)	46.2	66%	+13.1%	4Miss
Makai Lemon PHI	Receiving Yards	U 24.5(+3.0 from open)	18.6	65%	+12.9%	14Hit
Tony Pollard TEN	Carries	U 11.5(-1.0 from open)	10.6	59%	+6.7%	14Miss
Jalen Hurts PHI	Passing TDs	O 1.5	1.8	58%	+6.0%	2Hit
Saquon Barkley PHI	Receiving Yards	U 11.5	8.6	58%	+5.3%	11Hit
Jalen Hurts PHI	Rushing Yards	O 31.5(+1.0 from open)	34.4	57%	+4.9%	16Miss
Jalen Hurts PHI	Completions	U 18.5(+1.0 from open)	17.6	57%	+4.8%	26Miss
Saquon Barkley PHI	Carries	U 18.5	17.8	56%	+3.2%	4Hit
Tony Pollard TEN	Rush + Rec Yards	U 51.5(-6.0 from open)	48	55%	+3.0%	65Miss
Tyjae Spears TEN	Rush + Rec Yards	U 35.5(-2.0 from open)	33.2	55%	+2.8%	70Miss
Cam Ward TEN	Rushing Yards	O 11.5(-1.0 from open)	13.4	55%	+2.6%	7Miss
DeVonta Smith PHI	Receptions	U 4.5	4.2	55%	+2.5%	10Miss
Tony Pollard TEN	Receiving Yards	U 7.5(-1.0 from open)	5.8	55%	+2.1%	1Hit
Cam Ward TEN	Passing TDs	O 0.5	0.6	54%	+1.6%	0Miss
Will Shipley PHI	Receiving Yards	O 0.5	2	54%	+1.6%	5Hit
Cam Ward TEN	Passing Yards	U 186.5(-4.0 from open)	177.2	54%	+1.6%	183Hit
Tony Pollard TEN	Receptions	U 1.5	1.4	53%	+0.4%	1Hit
Saquon Barkley PHI	Receptions	U 1.5	1.4	53%	+0.4%	1Hit
Tyjae Spears TEN	Rushing Yards	U 16.5(-1.0 from open)	15.6	52%	0.0%	41Miss
Gunnar Helm TEN	Receiving Yards	O 23.5(+1.0 from open)	24.4	52%	0.0%	13Miss
Saquon Barkley PHI	Rush + Rec Yards	U 93.5	90.8	52%	-0.1%	20Hit
Tyjae Spears TEN	Receptions	U 2.5	2.4	52%	-0.2%	2Hit
Dontayvion Wicks PHI	Receptions	U 2.5	2.4	52%	-0.2%	5Miss
Makai Lemon PHI	Receptions	O 2.5	2.6	52%	-0.2%	1Miss
Carnell Tate TEN	Receiving Yards	U 43.5(+3.0 from open)	42.4	52%	-0.4%	27Hit
Tyjae Spears TEN	Receiving Yards	U 15.5	14.8	52%	-0.5%	29Miss
Dallas Goedert PHI	Receptions	O 3.5	3.6	52%	-0.5%	1Miss
Gunnar Helm TEN	Receptions	O 3.5(+1.0 from open)	3.6	52%	-0.5%	2Miss
Carnell Tate TEN	Receptions	O 3.5	3.6	52%	-0.5%	3Miss
Tony Pollard TEN	Rushing Yards	U 39.5(-5.0 from open)	38.6	52%	-0.6%	64Miss
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN	Receptions	O 4.5	4.6	52%	-0.8%	1Miss
DeVonta Smith PHI	Receiving Yards	U 58.5(-2.0 from open)	57.4	51%	-0.9%	117Miss
Jalen Hurts PHI	Carries	U 7.5	7.4	51%	-1.1%	5Hit
Saquon Barkley PHI	Rushing Yards	O 77.5	78.6	51%	-1.3%	9Miss
Cam Ward TEN	Completions	O 18.5	18.6	51%	-1.6%	13Miss
Jalen Hurts PHI	Passing Yards	U 206.5(+2.0 from open)	205.8	50%	-2.1%	264Miss
Tank Bigsby PHI	Receiving Yards	U 0.5	0.4	50%	-2.1%	5Miss
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN	Receiving Yards	U 38.5(+2.0 from open)	38.4	50%	-2.2%	9Hit
Dallas Goedert PHI	Anytime TD	Yes	2	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Dontayvion Wicks PHI	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Elic Ayomanor TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Tony Pollard TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Britain Covey PHI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Saquon Barkley PHI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Jalen Hurts PHI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
DeVonta Smith PHI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	1Hit
Daniel Bellinger TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Tyjae Spears TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Tank Bigsby PHI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	1Hit
Chimere Dike TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Will Shipley PHI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Gunnar Helm TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Cam Ward TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	2Hit
Darius Cooper PHI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	1Hit
Makai Lemon PHI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Carnell Tate TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Philadelphia Eagles

deep left21/2 · 19 yds

deep middle11/1 · 27 yds

deep right53/5 · 60 yds

short left76/7 · 41 yds

short middle53/5 · 40 yds

short right1412/14 · 77 yds

Line of scrimmage

34 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Tennessee Titans

deep left0—

deep middle0—

deep right32/3 · 66 yds

short left65/6 · 53 yds

short middle31/3 · 6 yds

short right65/6 · 58 yds

Line of scrimmage

18 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 82/128 (64%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00TEN24–20
END GAME
WPA (home)-1.0%
Home WP0.0%
Q4 0:04TEN1st & 10 at 5024–20
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass incomplete short middle.
EPA-2.80
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP1.0%
Yards0
PredictedPass 84%✓correct
Q4 0:04TEN1st & 10 at 5024–20
Timeout #3 by TEN at 00:04.
WPA (home)-1.4%
Home WP1.0%
Q4 0:09TEN1st & 10 at TEN 3524–20
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass short right to C.Tate to 50 for 15 yards (T.Woolen).
EPA+4.68
WPA (home)+1.6%
Home WP2.4%
Yards15
Air zoneshort right
TargetC.Tate
PredictedPass 84%✓correct
Q4 0:09PHI24–20
J.Elliott kicks 65 yards from PHI 35 to end zone, Touchback to the TEN 35.
WPA (home)+0.6%
Home WP0.8%
Q4 0:09PHI1st & Goal at TEN 3Score24–20
(Shotgun) J.Hurts pass short middle to D.Cooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Underwood, Holder-B.Mann.
EPA+0.62
WPA (home)-40.1%
Home WP0.2%
Yards3
Air zoneshort middle
TargetD.Cooper
PredictedRun 68%×incorrect
Q4 0:14PHI1st & 3 at TEN 317–20
Timeout #2 by TEN at 00:14.
WPA (home)+11.0%
Home WP40.4%
Q4 0:20PHI3rd & 6 at TEN 2217–20
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Hurts pass deep left to D.Smith pushed ob at TEN 3 for 19 yards (M.Robinson).
EPA+2.97
WPA (home)-29.8%
Home WP29.4%
Yards19
Air zonedeep left
TargetD.Smith
PredictedPass 95%✓correct
Q4 0:45PHI2nd & 10 at TEN 2617–20
(Shotgun) J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to TEN 22 for 4 yards (M.Harris).
EPA-0.19
WPA (home)-2.6%
Home WP59.2%
Yards4
PredictedPass 86%×incorrect
Q4 0:51PHI1st & 10 at TEN 2617–20
(Shotgun) J.Hurts pass incomplete short right [J.Martin].
EPA-0.71
WPA (home)+5.5%
Home WP61.9%
Yards0
PredictedPass 77%✓correct
Q4 0:56PHI2nd & 1 at TEN 3217–20
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Hurts pass short right to D.Smith ran ob at TEN 26 for 6 yards.
EPA+0.65
WPA (home)+8.3%
Home WP56.3%
Yards6
Air zoneshort right
TargetD.Smith
PredictedPass 69%✓correct
Q4 1:20PHI1st & 10 at TEN 4117–20
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Hurts pass short right to D.Smith to TEN 32 for 9 yards (A.Taylor).
EPA+0.43
WPA (home)-11.9%
Home WP48.0%
Yards9
Air zoneshort right
TargetD.Smith
PredictedPass 77%✓correct
Q4 1:48PHI3rd & 6 at PHI 3917–20
(Shotgun) J.Hurts pass deep right to D.Wicks to TEN 41 for 20 yards (M.Harris).
EPA+2.63
WPA (home)-14.5%
Home WP59.9%
Yards20
Air zonedeep right
TargetD.Wicks
PredictedPass 95%✓correct
Q4 1:52PHI2nd & 10 at PHI 3517–20
(Shotgun) J.Hurts pass short right to D.Smith ran ob at PHI 39 for 4 yards.
EPA-0.19
WPA (home)-2.3%
Home WP74.5%
Yards4
Air zoneshort right
TargetD.Smith
PredictedPass 86%✓correct
Q4 1:56PHI1st & 10 at PHI 3517–20
(Shotgun) J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to D.Wicks.
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)+4.3%
Home WP76.7%
Yards0
Air zoneshort middle
TargetD.Wicks (inc)
PredictedPass 77%✓correct
Q4 1:56TEN17–20
J.Slye kicks 65 yards from TEN 35 to end zone, Touchback to the PHI 35.
WPA (home)-6.0%
Home WP72.4%
Q4 1:56TEN & Goal at TEN 3517–20
Official Timeout at 01:56.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP78.4%
Q4 1:56TEN4th & Goal at PHI 14Score17–20
J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Cox, Holder-T.Townsend. PHI-J.Carter was injured during the play.
WPA (home)+10.1%
Home WP78.4%
Q4 2:00TEN4th & 14 at PHI 1417–17
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)+3.3%
Home WP68.3%
Q4 2:26TEN3rd & Goal at PHI 1517–17
(Shotgun) T.Spears left tackle to PHI 14 for 1 yard (M.Ojomo). ** Injury Update: PHI-J.Hunt has returned to the game.
EPA+0.29
WPA (home)-1.5%
Home WP65.0%
Yards1
PredictedPass 89%×incorrect
Q4 2:26TEN3rd & 15 at PHI 1517–17
Timeout #3 by PHI at 02:26.
WPA (home)+1.3%
Home WP66.5%
Q4 2:33TEN2nd & Goal at PHI 1817–17
T.Pollard left tackle to PHI 15 for 3 yards (A.Ebiketie; A.Mukuba).
EPA+0.76
WPA (home)+1.0%
Home WP65.2%
Yards3
PredictedPass 70%×incorrect
Q4 2:33TEN2nd & 20 at PHI 2017–17
Timeout #2 by PHI at 02:33.
WPA (home)-0.3%
Home WP64.2%
Q4 2:37TEN1st & Goal at PHI 917–17
C.Ward sacked at PHI 18 for -9 yards (J.Carter).
EPA-0.64
WPA (home)-9.2%
Home WP64.5%
PredictedPass 57%✓correct
Q4 2:44TEN3rd & 22 at PHI 3617–17
(Shotgun) T.Spears left end pushed ob at PHI 9 for 27 yards (J.Hunt). PHI-J.Hunt was injured during the play.
EPA+4.05
WPA (home)+21.5%
Home WP73.7%
Yards27
PredictedPass 89%×incorrect
Q4 3:29TEN2nd & 28 at PHI 4217–17
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass short left to C.Tate to PHI 36 for 6 yards (Q.Mitchell).
EPA+0.06
WPA (home)+4.1%
Home WP52.2%
Yards6
Air zoneshort left
TargetC.Tate
PredictedPass 70%✓correct
Q4 3:33TEN2nd & 23 at PHI 3717–17
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass incomplete deep right to W.Robinson.PENALTY on TEN-J.Latham, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 37 - No Play.
EPA-0.64
WPA (home)-4.8%
Home WP48.1%
Yards-5
Air zonedeep right
TargetW.Robinson (inc)
PredictedPass 70%✓correct
Q4 4:15TEN1st & 20 at PHI 3417–17
T.Spears left tackle to PHI 37 for -3 yards (M.Ojomo).
EPA-1.37
WPA (home)-3.8%
Home WP52.9%
Yards-3
PredictedPass 68%×incorrect
Q4 4:21TEN1st & 10 at PHI 2417–17
T.Pollard left tackle to PHI 22 for 2 yards (B.Young; A.Mukuba).PENALTY on TEN-A.Schlottmann, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 24 - No Play.
EPA-1.00
WPA (home)-8.9%
Home WP56.7%
Yards-10
PredictedPass 57%×incorrect
Q4 4:31TEN1st & 10 at TEN 3517–17
C.Ward pass deep right to E.Ayomanor pushed ob at PHI 24 for 41 yards (J.Campbell).
EPA+2.95
WPA (home)+14.8%
Home WP65.6%
Yards41
Air zonedeep right
TargetE.Ayomanor
PredictedPass 57%✓correct

Box score

Team stats	PHI	TEN
Total yards	341	291
Yards / play	4.7	5.7
Turnovers	2	0
3rd down	11-18	6-13
Red zone	3-4	2-4
Possession	36:25	23:35

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
J.Hurts	26/37	264	2	2

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
T.Bigsby	13	33	2.5	1
W.Shipley	7	24	3.4	0
J.Hurts	5	16	3.2	0
H.Brown	2	12	6.0	0
S.Barkley	4	9	2.3	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
D.Smith	10/13	117	1
D.Wicks	5/6	74	0
D.Cooper	2/3	26	1
M.Lemon	1/1	14	0
S.Barkley	1/2	11	0

Defense	TKL	SACK
J.Campbell	10	0
N.Smith Jr.	3	1
Q.Mitchell	6	0
A.Mukuba	6	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
C.Ward	13/20	183	0	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
T.Pollard	14	64	4.6	0
T.Spears	7	41	5.9	0
N.Singleton	4	10	2.5	0
C.Ward	4	7	1.8	2

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS
E.Ayomanor	2/3	69
C.Ridley	2/2	35
T.Spears	2/2	29
C.Tate	3/5	27
G.Helm	2/2	13

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
M.Harris	6	0	1
A.Hooker	6	0	1
J.Simmons	6	1	0
A.Hill Jr.	10	0	0

Model breakdown

Why the model likes PHI

Model vs. market

Matchup Lens

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Tennessee Titans