Playoff Lens
Playoff race
6,000 simulations of the 225 remaining regular-season games, using the model's win probability for each one. Seeds follow the NFL format (4 division winners, 3 wild cards per conference) with simplified tiebreakers: win percentage, division record, conference record, then team strength.
AFC odds and seeding
Seed columns show the chance of finishing in each playoff spot.
| Team | Division | Record | Proj. | Playoffs | Division | Bye | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JAX | South | 2-1 | 11.3-5.7 | 94% | 90% | 21% | 21 | 19 | 22 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 BUF | East | 3-0 | 11.5-5.5 | 90% | 79% | 23% | 23 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
 KC | West | 3-0 | 11.0-6.0 | 85% | 54% | 17% | 17 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 8 |
 CIN | North | 2-1 | 11.0-6.0 | 84% | 43% | 12% | 12 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 13 | 9 |
 BAL | North | 2-1 | 10.7-6.3 | 81% | 42% | 12% | 12 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 10 |
 LV | West | 3-0 | 10.3-6.7 | 76% | 35% | 9% | 9 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 10 |
 PIT | North | 2-1 | 9.3-7.7 | 48% | 14% | 2% | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 13 |
 DEN | West | 2-1 | 9.0-8.0 | 41% | 10% | 2% | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 13 |
 NYJ | East | 1-2 | 8.3-8.7 | 39% | 12% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 |
 NE | East | 1-2 | 8.1-8.9 | 28% | 9% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 9 |
 IND | South | 1-2 | 7.3-9.7 | 15% | 6% | <1% | · | · | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
 HOU | South | 0-3 | 6.7-10.3 | 8% | 4% | <1% | · | · | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 CLE | North | 2-1 | 6.9-10.1 | 7% | 1% | <1% | · | · | · | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 LAC | West | 0-3 | 5.7-11.3 | 3% | 1% | 0% | · | · | · | · | · | 1 | 2 |
 TEN | South | 0-3 | 4.1-12.9 | <1% | <1% | 0% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
 MIA | East | 0-3 | 3.6-13.4 | <1% | <1% | 0% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
NFC odds and seeding
Seed columns show the chance of finishing in each playoff spot.
| Team | Division | Record | Proj. | Playoffs | Division | Bye | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SF | West | 3-0 | 12.8-4.2 | 98% | 79% | 56% | 56 | 18 | 6 | · | 12 | 5 | 2 |
 MIN | North | 3-0 | 11.4-5.6 | 91% | 65% | 20% | 20 | 31 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 6 |
 PHI | East | 2-0 | 10.2-6.8 | 72% | 59% | 7% | 7 | 16 | 29 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
 SEA | West | 2-1 | 10.2-6.8 | 71% | 14% | 7% | 7 | 5 | 2 | · | 26 | 18 | 13 |
 LAR | West | 1-2 | 9.4-7.6 | 60% | 7% | 3% | 3 | 3 | 1 | · | 21 | 17 | 15 |
 DET | North | 2-1 | 9.6-7.4 | 55% | 20% | 4% | 4 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 12 |
 CHI | North | 1-1 | 9.0-8.0 | 48% | 12% | 2% | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 13 |
 NO | South | 1-2 | 7.9-9.1 | 44% | 41% | 1% | 1 | 2 | 8 | 30 | · | 1 | 2 |
 NYG | East | 2-1 | 8.4-8.6 | 33% | 19% | 1% | 1 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
 DAL | East | 1-2 | 8.1-8.9 | 31% | 16% | 1% | 1 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
 CAR | South | 1-2 | 7.1-9.9 | 30% | 27% | <1% | · | 1 | 5 | 21 | · | 1 | 1 |
 TB | South | 0-3 | 6.7-10.3 | 23% | 21% | <1% | · | 1 | 3 | 17 | · | 1 | 1 |
 GB | North | 1-2 | 7.7-9.3 | 17% | 4% | <1% | · | 1 | 2 | · | 2 | 5 | 6 |
 WSH | East | 1-2 | 7.4-9.6 | 16% | 6% | <1% | · | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
 ATL | South | 1-2 | 6.2-10.8 | 12% | 10% | <1% | · | · | 1 | 9 | · | 1 | 1 |
 ARI | West | 1-2 | 5.2-11.8 | 1% | <1% | <1% | · | · | · | · | · | 1 | 1 |