2026 Season · Week 3
Game predictions & model confidence
EPA-based team ratings blended with the opening market. Every pick is made using only games played before kickoff.
Straight up
59.6%
28-19 season
Against the spread
51.9%
14-13 · 52.4% breakeven
Avg CLV
+1.26 pts
43 tracked bets
Beat the close
53%
Share of bets with positive CLV
Week 3 slate
16 games · win probability, model spread & best bets
Games
Eagles
2-0
Bears
1-1
Pick
CHI 55%
Spread
CHI -1.5
mkt +3.5
Confidence
Falcons
1-2
Packers
1-2
Pick
GB 72%
Missed
Spread
GB -8
mkt -4.5
Confidence
Chargers
0-3
Bills
3-0
Pick
BUF 64%
Correct
Spread
BUF -5
mkt -7
Confidence
Panthers
1-2
Browns
2-1
Pick
CAR 59%
Missed
Spread
CLE +3
mkt +2.5
Confidence
Jets
1-2
Lions
2-1
Pick
DET 59%
Correct
Spread
DET -3
mkt -7
Confidence
Texans
0-3
Colts
1-2
Pick
HOU 52%
Missed
Spread
IND +0.5
mkt +1.5
Confidence
Chiefs
3-0
Dolphins
0-3
Pick
KC 76%
Correct
Spread
MIA +9.5
mkt +10
Confidence
Titans
0-3
Giants
2-1
Pick
NYG 56%
Correct
Spread
NYG -2
mkt -2.5
Confidence
Bengals
2-1
Steelers
2-1
Pick
CIN 61%
Missed
Spread
PIT +4
mkt +3.5
Confidence
Seahawks
2-1
Commanders
1-2
Pick
SEA 65%
Missed
Spread
WSH +5
mkt +8.5
Confidence
Patriots
1-2
Jaguars
2-1
Pick
JAX 52%
Correct
Spread
JAX -0.5
mkt -3
Confidence
Cardinals
1-2
49ers
3-0
Pick
SF 84%
Correct
Spread
SF -13.5
mkt -7.5
Confidence
Vikings
3-0
Buccaneers
0-3
Pick
MIN 55%
Correct
Spread
TB +1.5
mkt -1.5
Confidence
Ravens
2-1
Cowboys
1-2
Pick
BAL 59%
Correct
Spread
DAL +3
mkt +3
Confidence
Raiders
3-0
Saints
1-2
Pick
NO 54%
Missed
Spread
NO -1.5
mkt -3.5
Confidence
Rams
1-2
Broncos
2-1
Pick
LAR 56%
Missed
Spread
DEN +2
mkt -1.5
Confidence
Best player props
Highest model hit-probability across the week, tracked live once games kick off.
