HOU @ IND

Texans

0-3

Colts

1-2

Final

Pregame model pick

HOU 51.6%

Missed · ATS win

Low

Model spread: IND +0.5
Model total: 48.0
ATS pick: IND +1.5; +1.0 pt edge
Total pick: O 45.5; +2.5 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

HOU spread-1.5

HOU ML-120

Over42.5

IND spread+1.5

IND ML+100

Under42.5

Why the model likes HOU

The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.

Passing offensehelps HOU+1.1 pts · +3.2%
IND -0.24 vs HOU +0.13 EPA/dropback (vs. league avg)
Pass defensehurts HOU-1.1 pts · -3.1%
IND +0.08 vs HOU +0.43 EPA/dropback allowed (vs. league avg)
Run defensehelps HOU+1.0 pts · +3.0%
IND +0.59 vs HOU +0.17 EPA/rush allowed (vs. league avg)
Rushing offensehurts HOU-1.0 pts · -3.0%
IND +0.32 vs HOU -0.20 EPA/rush (vs. league avg)
Market priorhelps HOU+1.0 pts · +3.0%
Opening line HOU -1.5, weighted 67% while the sample is 2 games
Home fieldhurts HOU-0.6 pts · -1.7%
IND at home (1.7 pts)
Point differentialhelps HOU+0.1 pts · +0.2%
IND -10.5 vs HOU -9.5 per game

Early-season sample (2 games), so the stats are shrunk toward average and the market carries more weight.

Model vs. market

HOU win probability

GameLens: 52%
Market: 52%
Difference: -1%

Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.

Matchup Lens

The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.

Edge: INDClear
IND explosive plays vs HOU big-play defense
IND explosive-play rate
12.0% (5th)
HOU explosive-play rate allowed
12.6% (28th)
Edge: HOUClear
HOU explosive plays vs IND big-play defense
HOU explosive-play rate
10.5% (12th)
IND explosive-play rate allowed
12.5% (27th)
Edge: INDSlight
IND run game vs HOU run defense
IND EPA per rush
+0.32 (7th)
HOU EPA per rush allowed
+0.17 (18th)
Edge: HOUSlight
HOU passing attack vs IND secondary
HOU EPA per dropback
+0.13 (8th)
IND EPA per dropback allowed
+0.08 (22nd)

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% IND win probability

IND aboveHOU below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

clutchQ4 0:16
S.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.
WPA +32.6%
clutchQ4 1:43
(Shotgun) D.Jones pass deep middle to L.Treadwell to HST 45 for 20 yards (C.Bullock).
WPA +18.9%EPA +2.16
clutchQ4 0:21
Timeout #3 by HST at 00:21.
WPA +16.4%
clutchQ4 4:45
(Shotgun) D.Jones sacked at HST 45 for -6 yards (W.Anderson). FUMBLES (W.Anderson) [W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HST-T.Togiai at HST 46. Fumble Forced by 55-D.Hunter.
WPA -14.1%EPA -5.39
defenseQ1 11:28
D.Jones sacked at IND 39 for -8 yards (W.Anderson). FUMBLES (W.Anderson), touched at IND 44, RECOVERED by HST-W.Anderson at IND 42. W.Anderson to IND 40 for 2 yards (M.Alie-Cox). FUMBLES (M.Alie-Cox), recovered by HST-K.Lassiter at IND 40.
WPA -11.5%EPA -6.10
clutchQ4 0:29
(Shotgun) J.Taylor left end to HST 41 for -1 yards (W.Anderson).
WPA -11.1%EPA +2.12

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Recaps
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts: Game Highlights
Touchdowns
Keenan Allen scores his first TD as a Colt
Touchdowns
C.J. Stroud connects with Foster Moreau for a Texans TD
Touchdowns
Daniel Jones gets picked off by Reed Blankenship in front of the end zone
Big plays
Spencer Shrader's 53-yard FG lifts Colts past Texans

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
Dalton Schultz HOU	Receiving Yards	O 50.5	62.8	69%	+16.3%	30Miss
C.J. Stroud HOU	Completions	O 20.5	23	68%	+16.0%	16Miss
Tyler Warren IND	Receiving Yards	U 47.5(+3.0 from open)	37.3	67%	+14.2%	55Miss
Woody Marks HOU	Receptions	O 1.5	2	64%	+11.5%	1Miss
Dalton Schultz HOU	Receptions	O 5.5	6.3	62%	+9.7%	3Miss
Jaylin Noel HOU	Receiving Yards	O 28.5(+4.0 from open)	33	62%	+9.4%	17Miss
Keenan Allen IND	Receiving Yards	U 33.5	28.5	62%	+9.3%	63Miss
C.J. Stroud HOU	Rushing Yards	O 10.5	14.3	60%	+7.7%	10Miss
Jonathan Taylor IND	Receiving Yards	O 20.5(+1.0 from open)	24.2	60%	+7.3%	4Miss
David Montgomery HOU	Receptions	O 1.5	1.8	59%	+7.0%	2Hit
Daniel Jones IND	Carries	U 3.5	3	59%	+6.8%	3Hit
C.J. Stroud HOU	Passing Yards	O 239.5(+2.0 from open)	264.2	58%	+5.8%	167Miss
David Montgomery HOU	Rushing Yards	U 49.5(+2.0 from open)	44.7	58%	+5.3%	33Hit
Jonathan Taylor IND	Receptions	O 2.5	2.8	57%	+4.9%	2Miss
Jaylin Noel HOU	Receptions	U 2.5	2.2	57%	+4.9%	2Hit
Laquon Treadwell IND	Receiving Yards	O 23.5(+6.0 from open)	25.8	56%	+3.8%	20Miss
David Montgomery HOU	Receiving Yards	O 9.5(+1.0 from open)	11.8	56%	+3.8%	15Hit
Jared Wayne HOU	Receiving Yards	O 15.5(+1.0 from open)	17.8	56%	+3.8%	20Hit
Kayshon Boutte HOU	Receiving Yards	U 37.5(+3.0 from open)	34.7	56%	+3.6%	21Hit
Jonathan Taylor IND	Carries	O 19.5	20.2	55%	+2.8%	23Hit
Daniel Jones IND	Passing TDs	U 1.5	1.3	55%	+2.3%	1Hit
C.J. Stroud HOU	Passing TDs	U 1.5	1.3	55%	+2.3%	1Hit
David Montgomery HOU	Rush + Rec Yards	U 62.5(+1.0 from open)	58.8	55%	+2.3%	48Hit
Jonathan Taylor IND	Rush + Rec Yards	O 108.5(+4.0 from open)	114.5	54%	+2.0%	72Miss
Woody Marks HOU	Rush + Rec Yards	U 44.5(+1.0 from open)	42.2	54%	+1.8%	21Hit
Jonathan Taylor IND	Rushing Yards	O 82.5(+2.0 from open)	86.7	54%	+1.6%	68Miss
Woody Marks HOU	Rushing Yards	U 29.5(+2.0 from open)	28	54%	+1.6%	15Hit
Kayshon Boutte HOU	Receptions	U 2.5	2.3	54%	+1.3%	2Hit
Jonathan Taylor IND	Anytime TD	Yes	2	53%	+0.9%	0Miss
Tyler Warren IND	Anytime TD	Yes	1	53%	+0.9%	0Miss
Daniel Jones IND	Rushing Yards	U 10.5(-1.0 from open)	9.3	53%	+0.7%	5Hit
Xavier Hutchinson HOU	Receptions	U 3.5	3.3	53%	+0.7%	3Hit
Daniel Jones IND	Passing Yards	U 212.5(-8.0 from open)	204.3	53%	+0.7%	235Miss
Xavier Hutchinson HOU	Receiving Yards	U 38.5(-1.0 from open)	37.2	53%	+0.4%	51Miss
Josh Downs IND	Receiving Yards	O 50.5(-1.0 from open)	51.8	52%	-0.3%	77Hit
David Montgomery HOU	Carries	O 12.5(+1.0 from open)	12.7	52%	-0.8%	11Miss
Woody Marks HOU	Receiving Yards	O 11.5	11.8	51%	-1.5%	6Miss
Daniel Jones IND	Completions	O 20.5(-1.0 from open)	20.5	50%	-2.4%	24Hit
Woody Marks HOU	Carries	O 8.5	8.5	50%	-2.4%	5Miss
Keenan Allen IND	Receptions	O 3.5	3.5	50%	-2.4%	6Hit
Laquon Treadwell IND	Receptions	O 1.5	1.5	50%	-2.4%	1Miss
Jared Wayne HOU	Receptions	O 1.5	1.5	50%	-2.4%	1Miss
Tyler Warren IND	Receptions	O 4.5	4.5	50%	-2.4%	9Hit
Josh Downs IND	Receptions	O 4.5	4.5	50%	-2.4%	5Hit
David Montgomery HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	1.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Ashton Dulin IND	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
British Brooks HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Cade Stover HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Anthony Gould IND	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Deion Burks IND	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Marlin Klein HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Keenan Allen IND	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Laquon Treadwell IND	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Dalton Schultz HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Foster Moreau HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Daniel Jones IND	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Kayshon Boutte HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Woody Marks HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Jared Wayne HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
C.J. Stroud HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Jaylin Noel HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Xavier Hutchinson HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Seth McGowan IND	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Josh Downs IND	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Drew Ogletree IND	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Houston Texans

deep left20/2 · 0 yds

deep middle11/1 · 20 yds

deep right53/5 · 62 yds

short left75/7 · 25 yds

short middle53/5 · 25 yds

short right74/7 · 35 yds

Line of scrimmage

27 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Indianapolis Colts

deep left20/2 · 0 yds

deep middle22/2 · 38 yds

deep right31/3 · 26 yds

short left109/10 · 45 yds

short middle85/8 · 57 yds

short right107/10 · 69 yds

Line of scrimmage

35 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 82/121 (68%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00HOU17–19
END GAME
WPA (home)+7.2%
Home WP100.0%
Q4 0:01HOU2nd & 10 at HOU 4817–19
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right.
EPA-1.94
WPA (home)+1.2%
Home WP92.8%
Yards0
PredictedPass 88%✓correct
Q4 0:05HOU1st & 10 at HOU 4817–19
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass incomplete short right.
EPA-0.71
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP91.6%
Yards0
PredictedPass 81%✓correct
Q4 0:05HOU1st & 10 at HOU 4817–19
Timeout #2 by IND at 00:05.
WPA (home)+5.6%
Home WP91.6%
Q4 0:11HOU1st & 10 at HOU 3117–19
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass deep right to D.Schultz pushed ob at HST 48 for 17 yards (L.Latu). ** Injury Update: HST-X.Hutchinson has returned to the game.
EPA+4.97
WPA (home)-7.9%
Home WP86.0%
Yards17
Air zonedeep right
TargetD.Schultz
PredictedPass 81%✓correct
Q4 0:16IND17–19
R.Sanchez kicks 60 yards from IND 35 to HST 5. J.Noel pushed ob at HST 31 for 26 yards (K.Gushiken).
WPA (home)-5.8%
Home WP94.0%
Q4 0:16IND4th & 1 at HOU 36Score17–19
S.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.
WPA (home)+32.6%
Home WP99.8%
Q4 0:21IND4th & 1 at HOU 360–0
Timeout #3 by HST at 00:21.
WPA (home)+16.4%
Home WP67.3%
Q4 0:24IND3rd & 6 at HOU 4117–16
(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left to K.Allen to HST 35 for 6 yards (K.Lassiter).The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left to K.Allen to HST 36 for 5 yards (K.Lassiter).
EPA+2.38
WPA (home)+1.4%
Home WP50.8%
Yards5
Air zoneshort left
TargetK.Allen
PredictedPass 95%✓correct
Q4 0:24IND3rd & 6 at HOU 4117–16
Timeout #2 by HST at 00:24.
WPA (home)-0.2%
Home WP49.4%
Q4 0:29IND2nd & 5 at HOU 4017–16
(Shotgun) J.Taylor left end to HST 41 for -1 yards (W.Anderson).
EPA+2.12
WPA (home)-11.1%
Home WP49.7%
Yards-1
PredictedPass 78%×incorrect
Q4 0:29IND2nd & 5 at HOU 4017–16
Timeout #1 by HST at 00:29.
WPA (home)+0.7%
Home WP60.8%
Q4 1:11IND1st & 10 at HOU 4517–16
J.Taylor left guard to HST 40 for 5 yards (A.Al-Shaair; K.Lassiter).
EPA+2.80
WPA (home)+5.0%
Home WP60.1%
Yards5
PredictedPass 75%×incorrect
Q4 1:43IND2nd & 10 at IND 3517–16
(Shotgun) D.Jones pass deep middle to L.Treadwell to HST 45 for 20 yards (C.Bullock).
EPA+2.16
WPA (home)+18.9%
Home WP55.1%
Yards20
Air zonedeep middle
TargetL.Treadwell
PredictedPass 84%✓correct
Q4 1:48IND1st & 10 at IND 3517–16
(Shotgun) D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to K.Allen.
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)-8.2%
Home WP36.2%
Yards0
Air zoneshort middle
TargetK.Allen (inc)
PredictedPass 75%✓correct
Q4 1:48HOU17–16
K.Fairbairn kicks 65 yards from HST 35 to end zone, Touchback to the IND 35.
WPA (home)+6.9%
Home WP44.4%
Q4 1:48HOU1st & Goal at IND 1Score17–16
B.Fisher reported in as eligible. W.Marks right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.
EPA+0.42
WPA (home)-8.4%
Home WP37.5%
Yards1
PredictedRun 56%✓correct
Q4 1:50HOU1st & 1 at IND 110–16
Timeout #1 by IND at 01:50.
WPA (home)-1.2%
Home WP45.9%
Q4 2:00HOU2nd & 4 at IND 610–16
B.Fisher reported in as eligible. W.Marks left tackle to IND 1 for 5 yards (C.Ward).
EPA+1.06
WPA (home)-4.9%
Home WP47.1%
Yards5
PredictedPass 68%×incorrect
Q4 2:00HOU2nd & 4 at IND 610–16
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)-0.2%
Home WP52.0%
Q4 2:14HOU1st & 10 at IND 1210–16
C.Stroud pass short left to K.Boutte to IND 6 for 6 yards (A.Davis-Gaither).
EPA+0.48
WPA (home)-4.6%
Home WP52.2%
Yards6
Air zoneshort left
TargetK.Boutte
PredictedPass 64%✓correct
Q4 2:52HOU1st & 10 at IND 2710–16
C.Stroud pass short middle to K.Boutte to IND 12 for 15 yards (A.Gardner).
EPA+1.08
WPA (home)-9.2%
Home WP56.8%
Yards15
Air zoneshort middle
TargetK.Boutte
PredictedPass 64%✓correct
Q4 3:21HOU1st & 10 at IND 4410–16
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass deep right to X.Hutchinson to IND 27 for 17 yards (C.Ward). HST-X.Hutchinson was injured during the play.
EPA+1.22
WPA (home)-4.2%
Home WP66.0%
Yards17
Air zonedeep right
TargetX.Hutchinson
PredictedPass 64%✓correct
Q4 3:59HOU2nd & 1 at IND 4510–16
B.Fisher reported in as eligible. X.Hutchinson right end to IND 44 for 1 yard (A.Davis-Gaither).
EPA+0.29
WPA (home)+1.6%
Home WP70.2%
Yards1
PredictedPass 54%×incorrect
Q4 4:40HOU1st & 10 at HOU 4610–16
W.Marks right tackle to IND 45 for 9 yards (A.Davis-Gaither; A.Haulcy). ** Injury Update: IND-A.Gardner has returned to the game.
EPA+0.43
WPA (home)-4.3%
Home WP68.6%
Yards9
PredictedPass 64%×incorrect
Q4 4:45IND2nd & 10 at HOU 39Turnover10–16
(Shotgun) D.Jones sacked at HST 45 for -6 yards (W.Anderson). FUMBLES (W.Anderson) [W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HST-T.Togiai at HST 46. Fumble Forced by 55-D.Hunter.
EPA-5.39
WPA (home)-14.1%
Home WP72.9%
PredictedRun 68%×incorrect
Q4 5:22IND1st & 10 at HOU 3910–16
J.Taylor right tackle to HST 39 for no gain (T.Togiai). HST-M.Edwards was injured during the play.
EPA-0.71
WPA (home)-3.4%
Home WP87.0%
Yards0
PredictedRun 61%✓correct
Q4 6:06IND2nd & 3 at HOU 4210–16
(Shotgun) J.Taylor left guard to HST 39 for 3 yards (W.Anderson).
EPA+0.55
WPA (home)+1.4%
Home WP90.4%
Yards3
PredictedRun 70%✓correct
Q4 6:51IND1st & 10 at HOU 4910–16
J.Taylor right tackle to HST 42 for 7 yards (A.Al-Shaair; L.Hall).
EPA+0.17
WPA (home)+2.3%
Home WP88.9%
Yards7
PredictedRun 61%✓correct
Q4 7:33IND1st & 10 at IND 3510–16
D.Jones pass short right to M.Alie-Cox to HST 49 for 16 yards (R.Blankenship).
EPA+1.15
WPA (home)+2.7%
Home WP86.7%
Yards16
Air zoneshort right
TargetM.Alie-Cox
PredictedRun 61%×incorrect

Box score

Team stats	HOU	IND
Total yards	223	300
Yards / play	4.4	4.2
Turnovers	0	3
3rd down	4-11	7-15
Red zone	2-3	1-3
Possession	24:47	35:13

Houston Texans

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
C.Stroud	16/27	167	1	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
D.Montgomery	11	33	3.0	0
W.Marks	5	15	3.0	1
C.Stroud	2	10	5.0	0
J.Noel	1	8	8.0	0
X.Hutchinson	2	4	2.0	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS
X.Hutchinson	3/6	51
D.Schultz	3/3	30
K.Boutte	2/2	21
J.Wayne	1/4	20
J.Noel	2/2	17

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
W.Anderson Jr.	7	2.5	0
R.Blankenship	9	0	1
A.Al-Shaair	11	0	0
K.Lassiter	9	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
D.Jones	24/36	235	1	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
J.Taylor	23	68	3.0
S.McGowan	4	14	3.5
D.Jones	3	5	1.7
T.Warren	1	2	2.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
J.Downs	5/11	77	0
K.Allen	6/9	63	1
T.Warren	9/10	55	0
L.Treadwell	1/1	20	0
M.Alie-Cox	1/1	16	0

Defense	TKL	SACK
D.Buckner	7	1.5
A.Adebawore	3	1.5
C.Ward	8	0
A.Davis-Gaither	7	0

Model breakdown

Why the model likes HOU

Model vs. market

Matchup Lens

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts