Saints
1-1
24
Ravens
1-1
17
Final
Pregame model pick
BAL 70.1%
Missed
- Model spread
- BAL -7
- Model total
- 48.3
- ATS pick
- Pass
- -0.4 pt edge
- Total pick
- O 46.5
- +1.8 pt edge
Model breakdown
Why the model likes BAL
The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.
- Market priorhelps BAL+5.6 pts · +15.7%
Opening line BAL -7.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 1 game
- Point differentialhelps BAL+0.6 pts · +1.6%
BAL +18.0 vs NO -1.0 per game
- Pass defensehelps BAL+0.4 pts · +1.2%
BAL -0.84 vs NO -0.60 EPA/dropback allowed (vs. league avg)
- Home fieldhelps BAL+0.4 pts · +1.1%
BAL at home (1.7 pts)
- Passing offensehurts BAL-0.4 pts · -1.0%
BAL -0.27 vs NO +0.08 EPA/dropback (vs. league avg)
- Rushing offensehelps BAL+0.3 pts · +0.8%
BAL +0.38 vs NO +0.34 EPA/rush (vs. league avg)
- Run defensehelps BAL+0.1 pts · +0.2%
BAL +0.18 vs NO +0.24 EPA/rush allowed (vs. league avg)
Early-season sample (1 game), so the stats are shrunk toward average and the market carries more weight.
Model vs. market
BAL win probability
- GameLens
- 70%
- Market
- 75%
- Difference
- -5%
Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.
Matchup Lens
The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.
- Edge: NOClear
NO red-zone offense vs BAL red-zone defense
- NO red-zone TD rate
- 80% (8th)
- BAL red-zone TD rate allowed
- 100% (18th)
- Edge: BALClear
BAL explosive plays vs NO big-play defense
- BAL explosive-play rate
- 14.1% (4th)
- NO explosive-play rate allowed
- 11.1% (18th)
- Edge: BALSlight
BAL run game vs NO run defense
- BAL EPA per rush
- +0.41 (5th)
- NO EPA per rush allowed
- +0.27 (20th)
- Edge: NOSlight
NO secondary vs BAL passing attack
- BAL EPA per dropback
- -0.24 (19th)
- NO EPA per dropback allowed
- -0.57 (8th)
Live win probability
Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.
Win probability
100.0% NO win probability
Key moments
Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.
Key moments
- clutchQ4 2:03
(Shotgun) T.Shough pass short right to J.Johnson to BLT 5 for 25 yards (J.Hawkins).PENALTY on BLT-T.Hendrickson, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at BLT 5.
WPA -22.6%EPA +3.69 - clutchQ4 1:28
T.Shough up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-R.Wright.
WPA -18.5%EPA +2.44 - clutchQ4 5:41
(No Huddle) T.Shough up the middle to BLT 43 for 1 yard (K.Hamilton).
WPA -13.8%EPA +1.84 - clutchQ4 1:40
T.Shough up the middle to BLT 1 for no gain (K.Hamilton).
WPA +13.4%EPA -0.78 - clutchQ4 9:42
(Shotgun) T.Shough pass deep middle to C.Olave for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. T.Etienne rushes right end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
WPA -10.7%EPA +2.50 - clutchQ4 9:42
Official Timeout at 09:42.
WPA -10.7%
Highlights
Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.
Highlights
Highlight clips post during and after the game.
Player props
Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.
Player props
Passing target maps
Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.
Target maps
34 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
31 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
Play-by-play
EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.
Play-by-play
Play-call model: 76/121 (63%) run/pass correct
- Q4 0:00NO24–17
END GAME
WPA (home)-1.5%Home WP0.0% - Q4 0:13NO1st & 10 at NO 924–17
T.Shough kneels to NO 8 for -1 yards.
EPA+0.15WPA (home)+0.9%Home WP1.5%Yards-1PredictedRun 50%✓correct - Q4 0:20BAL2nd & 10 at NO 37Turnover24–17
(Shotgun) L.Jackson pass deep left intended for R.Bateman INTERCEPTED by J.Blackmon at NO 7. J.Blackmon to NO 9 for 2 yards (R.Bateman).
EPA-2.87WPA (home)-5.8%Home WP0.7%Yards2Air zonedeep leftTargetR.Bateman (inc)PredictedPass 86%✓correct - Q4 0:21BAL1st & 10 at NO 3724–17
(No Huddle) L.Jackson spiked the ball to stop the clock.
EPA-0.71WPA (home)-4.8%Home WP6.4%Yards0PredictedPass 78%✓correct - Q4 0:38BAL1st & 10 at 5024–17
(No Huddle, Shotgun) L.Jackson scrambles left guard to NO 37 for 13 yards (K.Elliss).
EPA+0.94WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP11.2%Yards13PredictedPass 78%×incorrect - Q4 0:59BAL3rd & 3 at BAL 3624–17
(No Huddle, Shotgun) L.Jackson pass short middle to M.Andrews to 50 for 14 yards (P.Werner).
EPA+2.04WPA (home)+1.3%Home WP11.3%Yards14Air zoneshort middleTargetM.AndrewsPredictedPass 90%✓correct - Q4 1:14BAL2nd & 10 at BAL 2924–17
(Shotgun) L.Jackson pass short left to R.Bateman to BLT 36 for 7 yards (Q.Riley).
EPA+0.19WPA (home)+3.0%Home WP10.0%Yards7Air zoneshort leftTargetR.BatemanPredictedPass 86%✓correct - Q4 1:21BAL1st & 10 at BAL 2924–17
(Shotgun) L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to D.Walker.
EPA-0.72WPA (home)-2.0%Home WP7.0%Yards0Air zoneshort rightTargetD.Walker (inc)PredictedPass 78%✓correct - Q4 1:28NO24–17
D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to BLT 5. C.Moore to BLT 29 for 24 yards (C.Donaldson; D.Stutsman).
WPA (home)+1.7%Home WP9.0% - Q4 1:28NO4th & Goal at BAL 1Score24–17
T.Shough up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-R.Wright.
EPA+2.44WPA (home)-18.5%Home WP7.3%Yards1PredictedRun 64%✓correct - Q4 1:32NO4th & 1 at BAL 117–17
Timeout #3 by BLT at 01:32.
WPA (home)-3.6%Home WP25.8% - Q4 1:40NO3rd & Goal at BAL 117–17
T.Shough up the middle to BLT 1 for no gain (K.Hamilton).
EPA-0.78WPA (home)+13.4%Home WP29.4%Yards0PredictedPass 65%×incorrect - Q4 1:40NO3rd & 1 at BAL 117–17
Timeout #2 by BLT at 01:40.
WPA (home)-2.6%Home WP16.0% - Q4 1:50NO2nd & Goal at BAL 717–17
(Shotgun) T.Shough pass short left to J.Johnson to BLT 1 for 6 yards (M.Starks; R.Smith).The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
EPA+0.13WPA (home)-2.8%Home WP18.5%Yards6Air zoneshort leftTargetJ.JohnsonPredictedPass 88%✓correct - Q4 1:54NO1st & Goal at BAL 717–17
(Shotgun) T.Shough pass incomplete short left to D.Vele.
EPA-0.63WPA (home)+1.8%Home WP21.3%Yards0Air zoneshort leftTargetD.Vele (inc)PredictedPass 80%✓correct - Q4 1:54NO1st & Goal at BAL 217–17
(Shotgun) PENALTY on NO-N.Fant, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 2 - No Play.
WPA (home)+3.3%Home WP19.5% - Q4 1:54NO1st & 2 at BAL 217–17
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)-0.8%Home WP16.2% - Q4 2:03NO3rd & 8 at BAL 3017–17
(Shotgun) T.Shough pass short right to J.Johnson to BLT 5 for 25 yards (J.Hawkins).PENALTY on BLT-T.Hendrickson, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at BLT 5.
EPA+3.69WPA (home)-22.6%Home WP17.0%Yards25Air zoneshort rightTargetJ.JohnsonPredictedPass 89%✓correct - Q4 2:48NO2nd & 14 at BAL 3617–17
(Shotgun) T.Shough pass short left to D.Vele to BLT 30 for 6 yards (M.Humphrey).
EPA+0.06WPA (home)-5.5%Home WP39.6%Yards6Air zoneshort leftTargetD.VelePredictedPass 70%✓correct - Q4 3:29NO1st & 10 at BAL 3217–17
A.Kamara right tackle to BLT 36 for -4 yards (K.Hamilton).
EPA-1.22WPA (home)+6.5%Home WP45.1%Yards-4PredictedPass 57%×incorrect - Q4 4:13NO3rd & 2 at BAL 3517–17
(Shotgun) T.Shough pass short left to C.Olave to BLT 32 for 3 yards (M.Humphrey).
EPA+1.19WPA (home)-3.1%Home WP38.6%Yards3Air zoneshort leftTargetC.OlavePredictedPass 52%✓correct - Q4 4:50NO2nd & 3 at BAL 3617–17
A.Kamara right tackle to BLT 35 for 1 yard (J.Jenkins).
EPA-0.57WPA (home)+0.8%Home WP41.7%Yards1PredictedRun 53%✓correct - Q4 4:55NO1st & 10 at BAL 4317–17
(Shotgun) T.Shough pass short right to K.Austin ran ob at BLT 36 for 7 yards.
EPA+0.17WPA (home)-4.4%Home WP40.9%Yards7Air zoneshort rightTargetK.AustinPredictedPass 57%✓correct - Q4 5:41NO4th & 1 at BAL 4417–17
(No Huddle) T.Shough up the middle to BLT 43 for 1 yard (K.Hamilton).
EPA+1.84WPA (home)-13.8%Home WP45.3%Yards1PredictedPass 57%×incorrect - Q4 6:06NO3rd & 6 at BAL 4917–17
(Shotgun) T.Shough pass short middle to D.Vele to BLT 44 for 5 yards (K.Hamilton).
EPA-0.22WPA (home)+5.5%Home WP59.1%Yards5Air zoneshort middleTargetD.VelePredictedPass 89%✓correct - Q4 6:46NO2nd & 10 at NO 4717–17
(Shotgun) T.Etienne left tackle to BLT 49 for 4 yards (K.Hamilton).
EPA-0.19WPA (home)-0.6%Home WP53.6%Yards4PredictedPass 70%×incorrect - Q4 6:49NO1st & 10 at NO 4717–17
(Shotgun) T.Shough pass incomplete short right to D.Vele (T.Jones).
EPA-0.71WPA (home)+3.5%Home WP54.2%Yards0Air zoneshort rightTargetD.Vele (inc)PredictedPass 57%✓correct - Q4 7:31NO2nd & 10 at NO 3217–17
(Shotgun) T.Shough pass short right to C.Olave to NO 47 for 15 yards (K.Hamilton; N.Wiggins).
EPA+1.80WPA (home)-8.4%Home WP50.7%Yards15Air zoneshort rightTargetC.OlavePredictedPass 70%✓correct - Q4 8:06NO1st & 10 at NO 3217–17
T.Etienne right tackle to NO 32 for no gain (B.Washington; K.Hamilton).
EPA-0.72WPA (home)+3.5%Home WP59.1%Yards0PredictedPass 57%×incorrect - Q4 8:06NO1st & 10 at NO 3217–17
Official Timeout at 08:06.
Box score
Box score
| Team stats | NO | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 298 | 312 |
| Yards / play | 4.7 | 5.6 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| 3rd down | 8-15 | 4-9 |
| Red zone | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Possession | 32:45 | 27:15 |
New Orleans Saints
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 T.Shough | 27/34 | 252 | 1 | 0 |
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 T.Etienne Jr. | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| T.Shough | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 1 |
 A.Kamara | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 0 |
 C.Donaldson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 P.Werner | 11 | 1 | 0 |
 C.Young | 2 | 1.5 | 0 |
 J.Blackmon | 2 | 0 | 1 |
 N.Shepherd | 4 | 0.5 | 0 |
