ARI @ SF

Cardinals

1-2

49ers

3-0

Final

Pregame model pick

SF 83.7%

Correct · ATS loss

Medium

Model spread: SF -13.5
Model total: 44.7
ATS pick: SF -11.5; +1.8 pt edge
Total pick: U 46.5; -1.8 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

ARI spread+7.5

ARI ML+310

Over48.5

SF spread-7.5

SF ML-395

Under48.5

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% SF win probability

SF aboveARI below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

clutchQ4 1:52
(Shotgun) B.Purdy scrambles left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty.PENALTY on SF-G.Kittle, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARZ 10.
WPA +11.1%EPA +2.68
clutchQ4 2:03
(Shotgun) C.McCaffrey up the middle to ARZ 42 for 12 yards (W.Williams).
WPA +9.3%EPA +4.60
clutchQ4 1:56
C.McCaffrey left end to ARZ 45 for -3 yards (J.Gibbens).
WPA -8.9%EPA +2.09
touchdownQ1 8:26
(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short left to M.Evans to SF 20 for 2 yards. Lateral to D.Samuel for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.
WPA +6.5%EPA +8.03
touchdownQ4 8:42
B.Purdy pass short middle to G.Kittle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.
WPA +3.5%EPA +1.32
touchdownQ4 13:06
J.Brissett pass short right to J.Love for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.
WPA -3.4%EPA +0.89

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Big plays
49ers move to 3-0 after beating the Cardinals 36-30
Clutch
Evans pulls off some sweet trickery with a lateral to Samuel for an 80-yard TD
Touchdowns
Purdy floats it to Evans for a 49ers TD
Touchdowns
Christian McCaffrey leaps over the line of scrimmage for a TD
Touchdowns
Jacoby Brissett tosses it to Jeremiyah Love for a short TD
Touchdowns
Purdy connects with Kittle on a Niners TD
Touchdowns
George Kittle cushions the 49ers' lead with a TD from Brock Purdy
Big plays
Mike Evans carted off with a rib injury

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
Kendrick Bourne ARI	Receptions	O 2.5	3.3	68%	+15.3%	2Miss
Kendrick Bourne ARI	Receiving Yards	O 24.5(+7.0 from open)	30.7	66%	+13.6%	22Miss
Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI	Receptions	U 2.5	1.8	64%	+11.9%	3Miss
Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI	Receiving Yards	U 32.5(+7.0 from open)	27.2	63%	+10.5%	40Miss
Kaelon Black SF	Rushing Yards	O 31.5(-1.0 from open)	36	61%	+8.8%	17Miss
Christian McCaffrey SF	Carries	U 13.5	12.3	61%	+8.5%	15Miss
Brock Purdy SF	Rushing Yards	O 17.5(+1.0 from open)	21.5	61%	+8.1%	34Hit
Kyle Juszczyk SF	Receiving Yards	O 8.5	12.2	60%	+7.3%	0Miss
Brock Purdy SF	Passing TDs	O 1.5	1.8	59%	+7.0%	4Hit
Christian McCaffrey SF	Rush + Rec Yards	U 100.5(+1.0 from open)	92.7	56%	+3.8%	116Miss
Deebo Samuel Sr. SF	Receptions	O 3.5	3.8	56%	+3.8%	0Miss
Christian McCaffrey SF	Rushing Yards	U 57.5(+3.0 from open)	53.5	56%	+3.1%	75Miss
Michael Wilson ARI	Receiving Yards	U 46.5(+1.0 from open)	43.3	55%	+3.0%	89Miss
Jeremiyah Love ARI	Carries	U 11.5(+1.0 from open)	11	55%	+2.7%	21Miss
Jeremiyah Love ARI	Rush + Rec Yards	U 58.5(+2.0 from open)	54.8	55%	+2.6%	109Miss
Jacoby Brissett ARI	Passing Yards	U 227.5(+4.0 from open)	213.7	55%	+2.4%	280Miss
Christian McCaffrey SF	Receiving Yards	U 38.5(+1.0 from open)	36.2	55%	+2.4%	41Miss
Jacoby Brissett ARI	Passing TDs	U 1.5	1.3	55%	+2.3%	2Miss
Trey McBride ARI	Receptions	O 7.5	7.8	54%	+1.8%	9Hit
Trey McBride ARI	Anytime TD	Yes	1	53%	+0.9%	0Miss
George Kittle SF	Receptions	U 3.5	3.3	53%	+0.7%	6Miss
Jeremiyah Love ARI	Rushing Yards	U 39.5(+2.0 from open)	38	53%	+0.6%	90Miss
Kyle Juszczyk SF	Receptions	O 1.5	1.6	53%	+0.4%	0Miss
Jacoby Brissett ARI	Rushing Yards	O 7.5	8.5	53%	+0.3%	4Miss
Jeremiyah Love ARI	Receiving Yards	U 15.5(+1.0 from open)	14.5	53%	+0.3%	19Miss
Brock Purdy SF	Completions	O 21.5(+1.0 from open)	21.8	52%	+0.1%	15Miss
Tyler Allgeier ARI	Receiving Yards	O 7.5	8	51%	-1.1%	10Hit
Deebo Samuel Sr. SF	Receiving Yards	U 41.5(+3.0 from open)	40.8	51%	-1.1%	80Miss
Jacoby Brissett ARI	Completions	U 22.5(+1.0 from open)	22.3	51%	-1.2%	38Miss
Brock Purdy SF	Passing Yards	O 237.5(+1.0 from open)	240.3	51%	-1.4%	297Hit
George Kittle SF	Receiving Yards	U 47.5(+1.0 from open)	47	51%	-1.6%	82Miss
Tyler Allgeier ARI	Rushing Yards	O 34.5(+2.0 from open)	34.8	51%	-1.6%	-1Miss
Tyler Allgeier ARI	Rush + Rec Yards	U 45.5(+2.0 from open)	45.2	51%	-1.8%	9Hit
Trey McBride ARI	Receiving Yards	U 68.5(+1.0 from open)	68.3	50%	-2.2%	75Miss
Mike Evans SF	Receiving Yards	O 51.5(-3.0 from open)	51.5	50%	-2.4%	34Miss
Mike Evans SF	Receptions	O 4.5	4.5	50%	-2.4%	3Miss
Christian McCaffrey SF	Receptions	O 4.5	4.5	50%	-2.4%	4Miss
Michael Wilson ARI	Receptions	O 3.5	3.5	50%	-2.4%	11Hit
Jeremiyah Love ARI	Receptions	O 2.5	2.5	50%	-2.4%	5Hit
Kyle Juszczyk SF	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Mike Evans SF	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	1Hit
George Kittle SF	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	2Hit
Christian McCaffrey SF	Anytime TD	Yes	1	37%	-15.7%	1Hit
Deebo Samuel Sr. SF	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	1Hit
Brock Purdy SF	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Jeremiyah Love ARI	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	1Hit
Hunter Long ARI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Brayden Willis SF	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Simi Fehoko ARI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Elijah Higgins ARI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Bam Knight ARI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Jordan James SF	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Jalen Brooks ARI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Jacoby Brissett ARI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Kendrick Bourne ARI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
KhaDarel Hodge SF	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Devin Duvernay ARI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Luke Farrell SF	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Michael Wilson ARI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Tyler Allgeier ARI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Jacob Cowing SF	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Kaelon Black SF	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Arizona Cardinals

deep left30/3 · 0 yds

deep middle22/2 · 37 yds

deep right42/4 · 35 yds

short left1611/16 · 70 yds

short middle43/4 · 19 yds

short right2521/25 · 123 yds

Line of scrimmage

54 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

San Francisco 49ers

deep left21/2 · 34 yds

deep middle0—

deep right32/3 · 43 yds

short left105/10 · 121 yds

short middle116/11 · 87 yds

short right21/2 · 12 yds

Line of scrimmage

28 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 83/132 (63%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00SF30–36
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP100.0%
Q4 0:33SF1st & 10 at ARI 4530–36
B.Purdy kneels to ARZ 46 for -1 yards.
EPA-3.16
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 60%✓correct
Q4 0:34ARI30–36
C.Ryland kicks onside 10 yards from ARZ 35 to ARZ 45. D.Samuel (didn't try to advance) to ARZ 45 for no gain.
WPA (home)+0.7%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 0:34ARI2nd & 10 at SF 31Score30–36
C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.
WPA (home)-0.7%
Home WP99.2%
Q4 0:39ARI2nd & 10 at SF 3127–36
Timeout #1 by SF at 00:39.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 0:40ARI1st & 10 at SF 3127–36
(No Huddle) J.Brissett spiked the ball to stop the clock.
EPA+1.52
WPA (home)+0.2%
Home WP99.9%
Yards0
PredictedPass 85%✓correct
Q4 0:57ARI1st & 10 at SF 4927–36
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Brissett pass deep right to Mi.Wilson to SF 31 for 18 yards (J.Jones).
EPA+1.30
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.6%
Yards18
Air zonedeep right
TargetMi.Wilson
PredictedPass 85%✓correct
Q4 1:17ARI2nd & 1 at ARI 4327–36
(Shotgun) J.Brissett pass short middle to J.Love to SF 49 for 8 yards (D.Lenoir).
EPA+0.80
WPA (home)+0.2%
Home WP99.6%
Yards8
Air zoneshort middle
TargetJ.Love
PredictedPass 79%✓correct
Q4 1:26ARI1st & 10 at ARI 3427–36
(Shotgun) J.Brissett pass short right to T.McBride pushed ob at ARZ 44 for 10 yards (F.Warner).The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) J.Brissett pass short right to T.McBride pushed ob at ARZ 43 for 9 yards (F.Warner).
EPA+0.43
WPA (home)-0.4%
Home WP99.4%
Yards9
Air zoneshort right
TargetT.McBride
PredictedPass 85%✓correct
Q4 1:31SF27–36
E.Pineiro kicks 55 yards from SF 35 to ARZ 10. J.Brooks to ARZ 34 for 24 yards (G.Wallow).
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.8%
Q4 1:31SF2nd & 10 at ARI 20Score27–36
B.Purdy pass deep right to G.Kittle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.
EPA+2.75
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP99.8%
Yards20
Air zonedeep right
TargetG.Kittle
PredictedRun 75%×incorrect
Q4 1:37SF2nd & 10 at ARI 2027–29
Timeout #3 by ARZ at 01:37.
WPA (home)+2.1%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 1:41SF1st & 10 at ARI 2027–29
C.McCaffrey right guard to ARZ 20 for no gain (B.Browning; W.Nolen).
EPA+0.72
WPA (home)-2.1%
Home WP97.8%
Yards0
PredictedRun 53%✓correct
Q4 1:52SF2nd & 13 at ARI 4527–29
(Shotgun) B.Purdy scrambles left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty.PENALTY on SF-G.Kittle, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARZ 10.
EPA+2.68
WPA (home)+11.1%
Home WP99.9%
Yards15
PredictedPass 61%×incorrect
Q4 1:52SF2nd & 14 at ARI 4627–29
Timeout #2 by ARZ at 01:52.
WPA (home)+3.3%
Home WP88.8%
Q4 1:56SF1st & 10 at ARI 4227–29
C.McCaffrey left end to ARZ 45 for -3 yards (J.Gibbens).
EPA+2.09
WPA (home)-8.9%
Home WP85.5%
Yards-3
PredictedRun 53%✓correct
Q4 1:56SF1st & 10 at ARI 4227–29
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)+0.8%
Home WP94.4%
Q4 2:03SF2nd & 10 at SF 4627–29
(Shotgun) C.McCaffrey up the middle to ARZ 42 for 12 yards (W.Williams).
EPA+4.60
WPA (home)+9.3%
Home WP93.6%
Yards12
PredictedRun 65%✓correct
Q4 2:07SF1st & 10 at SF 4627–29
(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to K.Juszczyk (Z.Collins).
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)-2.9%
Home WP84.4%
Yards0
Air zoneshort middle
TargetK.Juszczyk (inc)
PredictedRun 77%×incorrect
Q4 2:51SF1st & 10 at SF 3527–29
B.Purdy pass short left to C.McCaffrey to SF 46 for 11 yards (Ma.Wilson; J.Gibbens).
EPA+0.79
WPA (home)+1.7%
Home WP87.3%
Yards11
Air zoneshort left
TargetC.McCaffrey
PredictedRun 77%×incorrect
Q4 2:51ARI27–29
C.Ryland kicks 65 yards from ARZ 35 to end zone, Touchback to the SF 35.
WPA (home)+2.7%
Home WP85.6%
Q4 2:51ARI2nd & Goal at SF 1Score27–29
(No Huddle) J.Brissett up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on SF-O.Odighizuwa, Defensive Offside, declined. C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.
EPA+0.89
WPA (home)-2.8%
Home WP82.9%
Yards1
PredictedRun 69%✓correct
Q4 3:19ARI1st & Goal at SF 420–29
(Shotgun) J.Brissett pass short right to T.McBride to SF 1 for 3 yards (M.Sigle).
EPA-0.17
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP85.7%
Yards3
Air zoneshort right
TargetT.McBride
PredictedPass 65%✓correct
Q4 3:51ARI3rd & 2 at SF 820–29
(Shotgun) J.Brissett pass short left to T.McBride to SF 4 for 4 yards (G.Wallow).
EPA+1.43
WPA (home)-1.2%
Home WP85.7%
Yards4
Air zoneshort left
TargetT.McBride
PredictedPass 60%✓correct
Q4 3:56ARI2nd & 2 at SF 820–29
(Shotgun) J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to Mi.Wilson (O.Odighizuwa, J.Brown).
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)+1.9%
Home WP86.9%
Yards0
Air zoneshort left
TargetMi.Wilson (inc)
PredictedPass 55%✓correct
Q4 4:29ARI1st & 10 at SF 1620–29
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Brissett pass short left to K.Bourne to SF 8 for 8 yards (U.Stout; M.Sigle).
EPA+0.30
WPA (home)-3.2%
Home WP85.0%
Yards8
Air zoneshort left
TargetK.Bourne
PredictedPass 64%✓correct
Q4 4:52ARI3rd & 1 at SF 3020–29
(No Huddle) J.Brissett pass short right to K.Bourne to SF 16 for 14 yards (R.Green).
EPA+1.93
WPA (home)-1.6%
Home WP88.2%
Yards14
Air zoneshort right
TargetK.Bourne
PredictedPass 60%✓correct
Q4 5:12ARI2nd & 4 at SF 3320–29
(Shotgun) J.Love left guard to SF 30 for 3 yards (S.Valdez; F.Warner).
EPA-0.32
WPA (home)-1.2%
Home WP89.8%
Yards3
PredictedPass 68%×incorrect
Q4 5:47ARI1st & 10 at SF 3920–29
(Shotgun) J.Brissett pass short left to T.McBride to SF 33 for 6 yards (R.Green).
EPA+0.05
WPA (home)-1.3%
Home WP91.0%
Yards6
Air zoneshort left
TargetT.McBride
PredictedPass 64%✓correct
Q4 6:22ARI3rd & 1 at SF 4120–29
(No Huddle) J.Brissett up the middle to SF 39 for 2 yards (K.Kareem).
EPA+1.06
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP92.4%
Yards2
PredictedPass 59%×incorrect

Box score

Team stats	ARI	SF
Total yards	365	437
Yards / play	4.5	8.7
Turnovers	0	1
3rd down	9-18	5-8
Red zone	3-5	2-2
Possession	38:44	21:16

Arizona Cardinals

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
J.Brissett	38/52	280	2	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
J.Love	21	90	4.3	0
J.Brissett	4	4	1.0	1
T.Allgeier	2	-1	-0.5	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
M.Wilson	11/17	89	1
T.McBride	9/11	75	0
M.Harrison Jr.	3/5	40	0
K.Bourne	2/3	22	0
E.Higgins	3/3	20	0

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
A.Wingard	10	0	0
J.Gibbens	8	0	0
M.Wilson Sr.	6	0	0
M.Melton	4	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
B.Purdy	15/27	297	4	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
C.McCaffrey	15	75	5.0	1
B.Purdy	2	34	17.0	0
K.Black	4	17	4.3	0
D.Samuel Sr.	2	14	7.0	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
G.Kittle	6/7	82	2
J.Watkins	2/2	60	0
C.McCaffrey	4/5	41	0
M.Evans	3/6	34	1
K.Black	0/1	0	0

Defense	TKL	SACK
F.Warner	17	0
R.Green	13	0
D.Greenlaw	8	0
K.White	3	1

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers