SEA @ WSH

Seahawks

2-1

Commanders

1-2

Final

Pregame model pick

SEA 64.8%

Missed · ATS loss

Low

Model spread: WSH +5
Model total: 44.9
ATS pick: SEA -3.5; -1.6 pt edge
Total pick: U 46.5; -1.6 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

SEA spread-8.5

SEA ML-410

Over40.5

WSH spread+8.5

WSH ML+320

Under40.5

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% WSH win probability

WSH aboveSEA below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

clutchQ4 3:57
S.Darnold pass short middle intended for A.Barner INTERCEPTED by K.Medrano at 50. K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.PENALTY on WAS, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. D.Stevens extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.
WPA +34.1%EPA -8.88
clutchQ4 1:55
(Shotgun) R.White right end to SEA 47 for 19 yards (J.Jobe).
WPA +22.1%EPA +6.11
clutchQ4 8:40
(Shotgun) M.Mariota pass short left to T.McLaurin to SEA 34 for 6 yards (J.Jobe).
WPA +14.0%EPA +2.26
touchdownQ3 10:43
(Shotgun) M.Mariota pass deep left to T.McLaurin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.
WPA +13.1%EPA +3.37
defenseQ3 12:10
(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass short left intended for J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by S.Styles (T.Settle) at SEA 42. S.Styles to SEA 43 for -1 yards (G.Holani).
WPA +12.8%EPA -4.81
clutchQ4 1:47
A.Wylie reported in as eligible. R.White up the middle to SEA 47 for no gain (D.Witherspoon; J.Reed).
WPA -10.8%EPA +2.67

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Touchdowns
Rachaad White scores first TD as a Commander
Touchdowns
Sam Darnold links up with JSN for a TD
Touchdowns
Marcus Mariota fires a TD pass to Treylon Burks
Touchdowns
Marcus Mariota lofts a TD pass to Terry McLaurin
Touchdowns
Eric Saubert manages to hang on to the ball for a Seahawks TD
Touchdowns
Darnold, JSN link up for a tying TD in the 4th quarter
Defense
Kain Medrano comes up with clutch pick-six for Commanders
Recaps
Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Commanders: Game Highlights

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
Sam Darnold SEA	Completions	U 18.5	15	76%	+23.6%	31Miss
Antonio Williams WSH	Receiving Yards	O 13.5(-2.0 from open)	23.7	75%	+22.7%	15Hit
Antonio Williams WSH	Receptions	O 1.5	2.2	68%	+15.8%	2Hit
Emanuel Wilson SEA	Rushing Yards	O 29.5(+1.0 from open)	35.5	66%	+13.1%	14Miss
Sam Darnold SEA	Passing Yards	U 223.5(+1.0 from open)	181.4	65%	+12.3%	379Miss
Jacory Croskey-Merritt WSH	Carries	O 10.5(-1.0 from open)	11.7	62%	+9.9%	19Hit
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	Receiving Yards	O 94.5(+5.0 from open)	109.2	62%	+9.8%	128Hit
Stefon Diggs WSH	Receiving Yards	O 35.5(-3.0 from open)	40.7	61%	+9.1%	33Miss
Rachaad White WSH	Rushing Yards	O 19.5(+1.0 from open)	23.8	61%	+9.0%	35Hit
Jacory Croskey-Merritt WSH	Rushing Yards	O 37.5(-2.0 from open)	42.7	61%	+8.5%	36Miss
Rachaad White WSH	Receptions	O 2.5	3	61%	+8.4%	1Miss
Marcus Mariota WSH	Rushing Yards	U 23.5(+1.0 from open)	19.4	61%	+8.4%	11Hit
Marcus Mariota WSH	Completions	U 17.5	16.2	61%	+8.3%	19Miss
Rachaad White WSH	Rush + Rec Yards	O 39.5(+1.0 from open)	44.7	60%	+7.9%	41Hit
Terry McLaurin WSH	Receptions	U 3.5	3	59%	+6.8%	6Miss
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	Receptions	O 6.5	7.2	59%	+6.6%	10Hit
Rashid Shaheed SEA	Receiving Yards	U 29.5(+4.0 from open)	26.2	59%	+6.4%	14Hit
Sam Darnold SEA	Passing TDs	U 1.5	1.2	58%	+6.0%	4Miss
AJ Barner SEA	Receiving Yards	U 19.5(-2.0 from open)	16.5	58%	+5.5%	69Miss
AJ Barner SEA	Receptions	U 2.5	2.2	57%	+4.9%	5Miss
Cooper Kupp SEA	Receiving Yards	O 19.5(-1.0 from open)	22.2	57%	+4.7%	46Hit
Elijah Arroyo SEA	Receiving Yards	O 4.5	7	57%	+4.2%	0Miss
Jadarian Price SEA	Carries	U 13.5(+1.0 from open)	12.8	56%	+3.9%	5Hit
Stefon Diggs WSH	Receptions	O 3.5	3.8	56%	+3.8%	4Hit
Terry McLaurin WSH	Receiving Yards	U 41.5(-2.0 from open)	38.3	56%	+3.7%	77Miss
Marcus Mariota WSH	Passing Yards	U 171.5(-1.0 from open)	159.4	56%	+3.2%	183Miss
Rachaad White WSH	Receiving Yards	O 16.5(+1.0 from open)	18.5	55%	+2.9%	6Miss
Dyami Brown WSH	Receptions	O 1.5	1.7	55%	+2.3%	0Miss
Jadarian Price SEA	Rush + Rec Yards	U 69.5(+4.0 from open)	66	54%	+1.6%	22Hit
Marcus Mariota WSH	Passing TDs	O 0.5	0.6	54%	+1.6%	3Hit
Elijah Arroyo SEA	Receptions	O 0.5	0.6	54%	+1.6%	0Miss
Cooper Kupp SEA	Receptions	U 2.5	2.3	54%	+1.3%	4Miss
Rashid Shaheed SEA	Receptions	U 2.5	2.3	54%	+1.3%	2Hit
Sam Darnold SEA	Rushing Yards	U 6.5	5.2	53%	+1.1%	5Hit
Stefon Diggs WSH	Anytime TD	Yes	1.5	53%	+0.9%	0Miss
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	Anytime TD	Yes	2	53%	+0.9%	2Hit
Jadarian Price SEA	Rushing Yards	U 56.5(+5.0 from open)	55	52%	-0.3%	15Hit
Dyami Brown WSH	Receiving Yards	O 8.5	9.2	52%	-0.6%	0Miss
Jadarian Price SEA	Receiving Yards	U 8.5	8	51%	-1.1%	7Hit
Jadarian Price SEA	Receptions	O 1.5	1.5	50%	-2.4%	1Miss
Jacory Croskey-Merritt WSH	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
AJ Barner SEA	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Antonio Williams WSH	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Marcus Mariota WSH	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Eric Saubert SEA	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	1Hit
Sam Darnold SEA	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
John Bates WSH	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Brady Russell SEA	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Treylon Burks WSH	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	1Hit
Elijah Arroyo SEA	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Ben Sinnott WSH	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Cooper Kupp SEA	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Terry McLaurin WSH	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Rashid Shaheed SEA	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Colson Yankoff WSH	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Dyami Brown WSH	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
George Holani SEA	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Jaylin Lane WSH	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Kaytron Allen WSH	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Jadarian Price SEA	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Rachaad White WSH	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Emanuel Wilson SEA	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Seattle Seahawks

deep left11/1 · 16 yds

deep middle22/2 · 37 yds

deep right53/5 · 61 yds

short left138/13 · 77 yds

short middle108/10 · 90 yds

short right169/16 · 99 yds

Line of scrimmage

47 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Washington Commanders

deep left62/6 · 48 yds

deep middle0—

deep right20/2 · 0 yds

short left87/8 · 52 yds

short middle53/5 · 24 yds

short right127/12 · 60 yds

Line of scrimmage

33 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 79/129 (61%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00WSH31–33
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP100.0%
Q4 0:32WSH2nd & 11 at SEA 3631–33
M.Mariota kneels to SEA 37 for -1 yards.
EPA-3.04
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedPass 63%×incorrect
Q4 0:52WSH1st & 10 at SEA 3531–33
M.Mariota kneels to SEA 36 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.84
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 51%✓correct
Q4 1:36WSH3rd & 7 at SEA 4431–33
(Shotgun) M.Mariota right end to SEA 35 for 9 yards (J.Jobe).
EPA+1.90
WPA (home)+7.8%
Home WP99.9%
Yards9
PredictedPass 86%×incorrect
Q4 1:36WSH3rd & 7 at SEA 4431–33
Timeout #3 by SEA at 01:36.
WPA (home)+6.8%
Home WP92.1%
Q4 1:42WSH2nd & 10 at SEA 4731–33
R.White right tackle to SEA 44 for 3 yards (J.Reed; E.Jones).
EPA+2.85
WPA (home)-2.1%
Home WP85.2%
Yards3
PredictedPass 63%×incorrect
Q4 1:42WSH2nd & 10 at SEA 4731–33
Timeout #2 by SEA at 01:42.
WPA (home)+7.0%
Home WP87.3%
Q4 1:47WSH1st & 10 at SEA 4731–33
A.Wylie reported in as eligible. R.White up the middle to SEA 47 for no gain (D.Witherspoon; J.Reed).
EPA+2.67
WPA (home)-10.8%
Home WP80.3%
Yards0
PredictedRun 51%✓correct
Q4 1:47WSH1st & 10 at SEA 4731–33
Timeout #1 by SEA at 01:47.
WPA (home)+7.3%
Home WP91.1%
Q4 1:55WSH3rd & 9 at WSH 3431–33
(Shotgun) R.White right end to SEA 47 for 19 yards (J.Jobe).
EPA+6.11
WPA (home)+22.1%
Home WP83.8%
Yards19
PredictedPass 86%×incorrect
Q4 2:00WSH2nd & 9 at WSH 3431–33
M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to A.Williams [D.Lawrence].
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)-5.6%
Home WP61.7%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetA.Williams (inc)
PredictedRun 64%×incorrect
Q4 2:00WSH2nd & 9 at WSH 3431–33
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)+3.9%
Home WP67.3%
Q4 2:46WSH1st & 10 at WSH 3331–33
(Shotgun) J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to WAS 34 for 1 yard (B.Murphy; E.Jones).
EPA+4.16
WPA (home)-7.2%
Home WP63.3%
Yards1
PredictedRun 76%✓correct
Q4 2:51SEA31–33
J.Myers kicks 63 yards from SEA 35 to WAS 2. L.McCaffrey to WAS 33 for 31 yards (B.Russell).
WPA (home)+3.2%
Home WP70.5%
Q4 2:51SEA1st & Goal at WSH 7Score31–33
(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass short right to C.Kupp for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.
EPA+1.02
WPA (home)-8.8%
Home WP67.3%
Yards7
Air zoneshort right
TargetC.Kupp
PredictedRun 52%×incorrect
Q4 3:00SEA1st & 10 at WSH 2424–33
(No Huddle, Shotgun) S.Darnold pass deep right to T.Horton ran ob at WAS 7 for 17 yards (Q.Martin).
EPA+1.31
WPA (home)-9.0%
Home WP76.1%
Yards17
Air zonedeep right
TargetT.Horton
PredictedPass 59%✓correct
Q4 3:23SEA1st & 10 at WSH 3924–33
(No Huddle, Shotgun) S.Darnold pass short middle to J.Smith-Njigba to WAS 24 for 15 yards (A.Robertson).
EPA+1.08
WPA (home)-3.5%
Home WP85.1%
Yards15
Air zoneshort middle
TargetJ.Smith-Njigba
PredictedPass 59%✓correct
Q4 3:46SEA1st & 10 at 5024–33
(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass short middle to J.Smith-Njigba to WAS 39 for 11 yards (S.Styles).
EPA+0.79
WPA (home)-2.3%
Home WP88.6%
Yards11
Air zoneshort middle
TargetJ.Smith-Njigba
PredictedPass 59%✓correct
Q4 3:52SEA1st & 10 at SEA 3224–33
(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass deep right to J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at 50 for 18 yards (J.Reaves).
EPA+1.30
WPA (home)-3.2%
Home WP90.9%
Yards18
Air zonedeep right
TargetJ.Smith-Njigba
PredictedPass 59%✓correct
Q4 3:57WSH24–33
D.Stevens kicks 62 yards from WAS 35 to SEA 3. T.Horton to SEA 32 for 29 yards (J.Josephs; A.Kaho).
WPA (home)-3.1%
Home WP94.1%
Q4 3:57SEA2nd & 15 at WSH 49ScoreTurnover24–33
S.Darnold pass short middle intended for A.Barner INTERCEPTED by K.Medrano at 50. K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.PENALTY on WAS, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. D.Stevens extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.
EPA-8.88
WPA (home)+34.1%
Home WP97.2%
Yards50
Air zoneshort middle
TargetA.Barner (inc)
PredictedPass 72%✓correct
Q4 4:17SEA1st & 15 at WSH 4924–27
(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to J.Price (R.Douglas) [O.Oweh].
EPA-0.85
WPA (home)+2.8%
Home WP63.1%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetJ.Price (inc)
PredictedPass 61%✓correct
Q4 4:24SEA1st & 10 at WSH 4424–27
(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to R.Shaheed (R.Douglas, J.Reaves) [K.Medrano]. ** Injury Update: SEA-R.Shaheed has returned to the game. PENALTY on SEA, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 44 - No Play.
WPA (home)+9.9%
Home WP60.3%
Air zonedeep right
TargetR.Shaheed
Q4 4:30SEA1st & 10 at SEA 3024–27
S.Darnold pass deep right to J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at WAS 44 for 26 yards.
EPA+1.87
WPA (home)-10.3%
Home WP50.4%
Yards26
Air zonedeep right
TargetJ.Smith-Njigba
PredictedRun 51%×incorrect
Q4 4:34WSH24–27
D.Stevens kicks 62 yards from WAS 35 to SEA 3. R.Shaheed to SEA 30 for 27 yards (P.Butler). SEA-R.Shaheed was injured during the play.
WPA (home)-2.7%
Home WP60.6%
Q4 4:34WSH & Goal at WSH 3524–27
Official Timeout at 04:34.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP63.3%
Q4 4:34WSH4th & 6 at SEA 18Score24–27
D.Stevens 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.
WPA (home)+6.5%
Home WP63.3%
Q4 5:22WSH3rd & 8 at SEA 2024–24
(Shotgun) M.Mariota scrambles right tackle to SEA 18 for 2 yards (E.Jones).
EPA-0.66
WPA (home)-2.1%
Home WP56.8%
Yards2
PredictedPass 85%×incorrect
Q4 6:01WSH2nd & 8 at SEA 2024–24
(Shotgun) R.White right guard to SEA 20 for no gain (B.Murphy; U.Nwosu).
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)-1.5%
Home WP58.9%
Yards0
PredictedPass 62%×incorrect
Q4 6:37WSH1st & 10 at SEA 2224–24
M.Mariota scrambles right end pushed ob at SEA 20 for 2 yards (E.Jones).
EPA-0.46
WPA (home)-0.3%
Home WP60.4%
Yards2
PredictedRun 52%✓correct

Box score

Team stats	SEA	WSH
Total yards	437	258
Yards / play	6.8	4
Turnovers	3	0
3rd down	3-9	3-13
Red zone	4-5	2-3
Possession	28:32	31:28

Seattle Seahawks

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
S.Darnold	31/45	379	4	2
J.Smith-Njigba	1/1	14	0	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
J.Price	5	15	3.0
E.Wilson	9	14	1.6
G.Holani	3	10	3.3
S.Darnold	1	5	5.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
J.Smith-Njigba	10/14	128	2
A.Barner	5/9	69	0
G.Holani	5/5	48	0
T.Horton	3/3	48	0
C.Kupp	4/5	46	1

Defense	TKL	SACK
D.Thomas	9	0
D.Hall	4	1
E.Jones IV	8	0
L.Williams	3	1

Washington Commanders

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
M.Mariota	19/31	183	3	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
J.Croskey-Merritt	19	36	1.9
R.White	8	35	4.4
M.Mariota	5	11	2.2

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
T.McLaurin	6/9	77	1
S.Diggs	4/7	33	0
J.Lane	1/1	21	0
A.Williams	2/4	15	0
T.Burks	2/2	13	1

Defense	TKL	INT
S.Styles	5	1
K.Medrano	5	1
J.Reaves	7	0
A.Robertson	6	0

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Washington Commanders