IND @ KC

Colts

0-2

Chiefs

2-0

Final/OT

Pregame model pick

KC 71.5%

Correct · ATS loss

Low

Model spread: KC -7.5
Model total: 47.8
ATS pick: KC -5.5; +2.1 pt edge
Total pick: Pass; +0.3 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

IND spread+6

IND ML+215

Over46.5

KC spread-6

KC ML-265

Under46.5

Why the model likes KC

The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.

Market priorhelps KC+4.1 pts · +11.2%
Opening line KC -5.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 1 game
Point differentialhelps KC+1.3 pts · +3.2%
KC +21.0 vs IND -18.0 per game
Passing offensehelps KC+0.6 pts · +1.6%
KC -0.58 vs IND -0.84 EPA/dropback (vs. league avg)
Run defensehelps KC+0.6 pts · +1.5%
KC -0.10 vs IND +0.38 EPA/rush allowed (vs. league avg)
Home fieldhelps KC+0.4 pts · +1.1%
KC at home (1.7 pts)
Pass defensehelps KC+0.4 pts · +0.9%
KC -0.38 vs IND -0.27 EPA/dropback allowed (vs. league avg)
Rushing offensehelps KC+0.3 pts · +0.7%
KC +0.31 vs IND +0.18 EPA/rush (vs. league avg)

Early-season sample (1 game), so the stats are shrunk toward average and the market carries more weight.

Model vs. market

KC win probability

GameLens: 71%
Market: 70%
Difference: +2%

Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.

Matchup Lens

The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.

Edge: KCClear
KC third-down defense vs IND third-down offense
IND third-down conversion rate
30% (19th)
KC third-down rate allowed
17% (1st)
Edge: KCClear
KC explosive plays vs IND big-play defense
KC explosive-play rate
11.9% (11th)
IND explosive-play rate allowed
14.1% (29th)
Edge: KCClear
KC secondary vs IND passing attack
IND EPA per dropback
-0.81 (29th)
KC EPA per dropback allowed
-0.35 (13th)
Edge: KCClear
KC run game vs IND run defense
KC EPA per rush
+0.34 (8th)
IND EPA per rush allowed
+0.41 (26th)
Edge: KCSlight
KC pass rush vs IND offensive line
IND sack rate allowed
6.1% (12th)
KC sack rate generated
15.6% (2nd)

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% KC win probability

KC aboveIND below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

clutchQ4 0:00
END QUARTER 4
WPA -40.2%
clutchQ4 0:03
(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass short middle to R.Rice to IND 23 for 31 yards (C.Taylor-Britt; H.Wohler).
WPA +39.4%EPA -2.51
clutchQ5 5:04
Daniel Jones Pass Complete for 48 Yds to Laquon Treadwell
WPA -34.9%EPA +3.46
clutchQ5 8:38
(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass deep right to T.Thornton to IND 40 for 30 yards (H.Wohler).
WPA +21.7%EPA +3.69
clutchQ5 1:30
P.Mahomes pass short left to K.Walker to IND 24 for 22 yards (C.Bynum).
WPA +19.8%EPA +4.23
clutchQ4 0:40
(Shotgun) D.Jones pass incomplete short right [F.Anudike-Uzomah].
WPA +16.1%EPA -2.00

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Highlight clips post during and after the game.

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
Emmett Johnson KC	Rush + Rec Yards	O 28.5	36.4	70%	+17.7%	35Hit
Emmett Johnson KC	Receiving Yards	O 7.5	14.8	69%	+16.3%	20Hit
Kenneth Walker III KC	Rushing Yards	O 83.5(+5.0 from open)	101.4	67%	+14.2%	117Hit
Patrick Mahomes KC	Carries	O 3.5	4.2	63%	+10.4%	2Miss
Kenneth Walker III KC	Rush + Rec Yards	O 107.5(+4.0 from open)	124.2	62%	+9.8%	178Hit
Tyler Warren IND	Receiving Yards	U 42.5(-3.0 from open)	36.6	61%	+8.5%	21Hit
Travis Kelce KC	Receiving Yards	O 42.5	48.2	61%	+8.2%	101Hit
Rashee Rice KC	Receiving Yards	U 48.5(-4.0 from open)	42.6	60%	+7.2%	83Miss
Keenan Allen IND	Receptions	O 3.5	4	59%	+6.8%	1Miss
Tyquan Thornton KC	Receiving Yards	U 16.5(+3.0 from open)	13.2	59%	+6.3%	86Miss
Xavier Worthy KC	Receiving Yards	U 39.5(+2.0 from open)	35.2	59%	+6.2%	25Hit
Tyquan Thornton KC	Receptions	U 1.5	1.2	58%	+6.0%	4Miss
Rashee Rice KC	Receptions	U 4.5	4	58%	+5.7%	4Hit
Josh Downs IND	Receptions	U 4.5(+1.0 from open)	4	58%	+5.7%	7Miss
Kenneth Walker III KC	Carries	O 18.5	19.4	57%	+4.8%	24Hit
Patrick Mahomes KC	Completions	U 19.5(-1.0 from open)	18.6	57%	+4.6%	32Miss
Alec Pierce IND	Receptions	O 2.5	2.8	57%	+4.2%	1Miss
Alec Pierce IND	Receiving Yards	O 45.5(+2.0 from open)	48.6	55%	+3.0%	11Miss
Tyler Warren IND	Receptions	U 4.5	4.2	55%	+2.5%	6Miss
Daniel Jones IND	Completions	U 21.5	21	54%	+1.3%	22Miss
Daniel Jones IND	Passing Yards	U 215.5	205.6	54%	+1.3%	210Hit
Emmett Johnson KC	Rushing Yards	O 17.5(+3.0 from open)	18.8	53%	+1.1%	15Miss
Noah Gray KC	Receiving Yards	U 11.5	10.2	53%	+1.1%	0Hit
Jonathan Taylor IND	Receiving Yards	O 16.5	17.8	53%	+1.1%	40Hit
Jonathan Taylor IND	Rushing Yards	O 81.5(-6.0 from open)	84.8	53%	+0.8%	92Hit
Jonathan Taylor IND	Rush + Rec Yards	O 101.5(-8.0 from open)	105.4	53%	+0.7%	132Hit
Patrick Mahomes KC	Passing TDs	O 1.5	1.6	53%	+0.4%	3Hit
Daniel Jones IND	Passing TDs	U 1.5	1.4	53%	+0.4%	1Hit
Noah Gray KC	Receptions	U 1.5	1.4	53%	+0.4%	0Hit
Emmett Johnson KC	Receptions	O 1.5	1.6	53%	+0.4%	2Hit
Patrick Mahomes KC	Passing Yards	U 222.5(+3.0 from open)	214.8	53%	+0.4%	382Miss
Patrick Mahomes KC	Rushing Yards	O 18.5(+3.0 from open)	19.4	52%	0.0%	17Miss
Daniel Jones IND	Rushing Yards	U 8.5	7.6	52%	0.0%	10Miss
Seth McGowan IND	Rushing Yards	U 4.5(-1.0 from open)	3.6	52%	0.0%	0Hit
Jonathan Taylor IND	Receptions	O 2.5	2.6	52%	-0.2%	4Hit
Josh Downs IND	Receiving Yards	U 42.5(+6.0 from open)	41.4	52%	-0.3%	72Miss
Travis Kelce KC	Receptions	U 3.5	3.4	52%	-0.5%	9Miss
Kenneth Walker III KC	Receptions	U 3.5(+1.0 from open)	3.4	52%	-0.5%	6Miss
Xavier Worthy KC	Receptions	U 3.5	3.4	52%	-0.5%	5Miss
Kenneth Walker III KC	Receiving Yards	U 19.5	19.2	51%	-1.6%	61Miss
Jonathan Taylor IND	Carries	U 19.5	19.4	51%	-1.6%	24Miss
Keenan Allen IND	Receiving Yards	O 30.5	30.8	51%	-1.6%	5Miss
Patrick Mahomes KC	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Jonathan Taylor IND	Anytime TD	Yes	2	44%	-8.4%	2Hit
Rashee Rice KC	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Tyler Warren IND	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	1Hit
Kenneth Walker III KC	Anytime TD	Yes	2	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Keenan Allen IND	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Travis Kelce KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	1Hit
Laquon Treadwell IND	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Daniel Jones IND	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Ashton Dulin IND	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Noah Gray KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Alec Pierce IND	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Tyquan Thornton KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Ben VanSumeren KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Nikko Remigio KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Jake Briningstool KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Xavier Worthy KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	1Hit
Seth McGowan IND	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Josh Downs IND	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Drew Ogletree IND	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Emmett Johnson KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Cyrus Allen KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Jalen Royals KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	1Hit

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Indianapolis Colts

deep left41/4 · 20 yds

deep middle0—

deep right10/1 · 0 yds

short left107/10 · 55 yds

short middle33/3 · 18 yds

short right129/12 · 64 yds

Line of scrimmage

30 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Kansas City Chiefs

deep left0—

deep middle11/1 · 16 yds

deep right42/4 · 75 yds

short left139/13 · 87 yds

short middle75/7 · 71 yds

short right1815/18 · 133 yds

Line of scrimmage

43 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 90/144 (63%) run/pass correct

QOT 0:00KC30–33
END GAME
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP100.0%
QOT 0:00KC2nd & 8 at IND 22Score30–33
H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.
WPA (home)+9.8%
Home WP100.0%
QOT 0:01KC2nd & 8 at IND 2230–30
Timeout #2 by KC at 00:01.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP90.3%
QOT 0:42KC1st & 10 at IND 2430–30
(Shotgun) H.Nourzad and K.Tonga reported in as eligible. K.Walker left guard to IND 22 for 2 yards (L.Latu; C.Bynum).
EPA+1.12
WPA (home)+1.6%
Home WP90.3%
Yards2
PredictedPass 69%×incorrect
QOT 0:42KC1st & 10 at IND 2430–30
Timeout #1 by KC at 00:42.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP88.6%
QOT 1:30KC3rd & 1 at IND 4630–30
P.Mahomes pass short left to K.Walker to IND 24 for 22 yards (C.Bynum).
EPA+4.23
WPA (home)+19.8%
Home WP88.6%
Yards22
Air zoneshort left
TargetK.Walker
PredictedPass 65%✓correct
QOT 1:30KC3rd & 1 at IND 4630–30
Timeout #2 by IND at 01:30.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP68.8%
QOT 1:39KC2nd & 5 at 5030–30
(No Huddle, Shotgun) P.Mahomes scrambles right end to IND 46 for 4 yards (G.Stewart).
EPA+3.12
WPA (home)+2.8%
Home WP68.8%
Yards4
PredictedPass 72%×incorrect
QOT 2:00KC1st & 10 at KC 4530–30
(Shotgun) K.Walker up the middle to 50 for 5 yards (H.Wohler; D.Buckner).
EPA-0.08
WPA (home)-1.9%
Home WP66.0%
Yards5
PredictedRun 57%✓correct
QOT 2:00KC1st & 10 at KC 4530–30
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP67.9%
QOT 2:29KC2nd & 1 at KC 4130–30
K.Walker left end to KC 45 for 4 yards (J.Walley).
EPA+4.47
WPA (home)+4.3%
Home WP67.9%
Yards4
PredictedRun 67%✓correct
QOT 3:06KC1st & 10 at KC 3230–30
(Shotgun) K.Walker up the middle to KC 41 for 9 yards (C.Bynum; D.Buckner).
EPA+0.43
WPA (home)+4.2%
Home WP63.6%
Yards9
PredictedRun 57%✓correct
QOT 3:11IND30–30
S.Shrader kicks 58 yards from IND 35 to KC 7. B.Smith to KC 32 for 25 yards (H.Wohler; L.Treadwell).
WPA (home)-2.9%
Home WP59.4%
QOT 3:11IND & Goal at IND 3530–30
Official Timeout at 03:11.
QOT 3:11IND4th & 13 at KC 20Score30–30
S.Shrader 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.
QOT 3:15IND4th & 8 at KC 1527–30
(Shotgun) PENALTY on IND, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at KC 15 - No Play.
WPA (home)+2.3%
Home WP62.3%
QOT 3:15IND4th & 8 at KC 1527–30
Timeout #1 by IND at 03:15.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP60.0%
QOT 3:22IND3rd & 13 at KC 2027–30
(Shotgun) D.Jones scrambles left end pushed ob at KC 15 for 5 yards (J.Hicks).
EPA+0.87
WPA (home)+2.8%
Home WP60.0%
Yards5
PredictedPass 89%×incorrect
QOT 4:05IND2nd & 11 at KC 1827–30
(Shotgun) J.Taylor left guard to KC 20 for -2 yards (N.Bolton).
EPA-0.95
WPA (home)+7.6%
Home WP57.2%
Yards-2
PredictedPass 70%×incorrect
QOT 4:50IND1st & 10 at KC 1727–30
J.Taylor left end to KC 18 for -1 yards (D.Tranquill).
EPA-0.84
WPA (home)+14.4%
Home WP49.6%
Yards-1
PredictedPass 57%×incorrect
QOT 5:04IND1st & 10 at IND 3527–30
Daniel Jones Pass Complete for 48 Yds to Laquon Treadwell
EPA+3.46
WPA (home)-34.9%
Home WP35.2%
Yards48
PredictedPass 57%✓correct
QOT 5:09KC27–30
H.Butker kicks 58 yards from KC 35 to IND 7. A.Gould to IND 35 for 28 yards (C.Christiansen).
WPA (home)-5.5%
Home WP70.1%
QOT 5:09KC & Goal at KC 3527–30
Official Timeout at 05:09.
QOT 5:09KC4th & 9 at IND 13Score27–30
H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.
WPA (home)+4.0%
Home WP75.5%
QOT 5:18KC3rd & 9 at IND 1327–27
(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to K.Walker.
EPA-1.10
WPA (home)-2.6%
Home WP71.6%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetK.Walker (inc)
PredictedPass 82%✓correct
QOT 5:24KC2nd & 9 at IND 1327–27
P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle.
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)-1.7%
Home WP74.2%
Yards0
PredictedPass 57%✓correct
QOT 6:05KC1st & 10 at IND 1427–27
K.Walker right tackle to IND 13 for 1 yard (J.Tuimoloau; A.Davis-Gaither).
EPA-0.59
WPA (home)-3.3%
Home WP75.8%
Yards1
PredictedRun 57%✓correct
QOT 6:49KC2nd & 8 at IND 2727–27
(Shotgun) P.Mahomes scrambles left end to IND 14 for 13 yards (H.Wohler).
EPA+1.54
WPA (home)+9.5%
Home WP79.1%
Yards13
PredictedPass 57%×incorrect
QOT 6:49KC2nd & 3 at IND 2227–27
PENALTY on KC-J.Moore, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at IND 22 - No Play.
WPA (home)-3.9%
Home WP69.6%
QOT 7:20KC1st & 10 at IND 2927–27
K.Walker left guard to IND 22 for 7 yards (B.Boettcher; H.Wohler).
EPA+0.17
WPA (home)+2.2%
Home WP73.6%
Yards7
PredictedRun 57%✓correct

Box score

Team stats	IND	KC
Total yards	329	523
Yards / play	5.2	6.7
Turnovers	1	0
3rd down	5-12	5-13
Red zone	2-3	3-5
Possession	33:00	37:00

Indianapolis Colts

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
D.Jones	22/31	210	1	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
J.Taylor	24	92	3.8	2
D.Burks	2	14	7.0	0
D.Jones	3	10	3.3	0
T.Warren	1	3	3.0	0
S.McGowan	2	0	0.0	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
J.Downs	7/9	72	0
L.Treadwell	3/3	61	0
J.Taylor	4/4	40	0
T.Warren	6/7	21	1
A.Pierce	1/1	11	0

Defense	TKL	SACK
A.Davis-Gaither	14	0
D.Buckner	5	1
C.Bynum	9	0
H.Wohler	8	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
P.Mahomes	32/47	382	3	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
K.Walker III	24	117	4.9
P.Mahomes	2	17	8.5
E.Johnson	2	15	7.5
K.Tonga	1	3	3.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
T.Kelce	9/11	101	1
T.Thornton	4/4	86	0
R.Rice	4/6	83	0
K.Walker III	6/10	61	0
X.Worthy	5/7	25	1

Defense	TKL	INT
N.Bolton	13	0
J.Hicks	10	0
D.Tranquill	8	0
K.Fulton	2	1

Model breakdown

Why the model likes KC

Model vs. market

Matchup Lens

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Kansas City Chiefs