gameLens

Browns

1-1

23

Buccaneers

0-2

19

Final

Final · Game report

Cleveland Browns rally past TB, 23-19

Cleveland Browns were down to a 9% win probability at their low point and still came back to win by 4.

Play for play, TB had the more efficient offense: -0.29 EPA per play for CLE versus +0.05 for TB. CLE won anyway, which usually comes down to turnovers, field position or finishing drives.

GameLens picked TB at 66% before kickoff, and this is one the model missed.

Play of the game · Q4 0:45 · 43% win-prob swing

(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to T.Hurst.PENALTY on TB-G.Barton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLV 13 - No Play.

How it was won

  • Turnover battle: CLE won it 1-0, and that margin mattered in a 4-point game.
  • CLE won through the air, averaging 0.37 EPA per dropback compared with -0.97 per run.
Team stat comparison
CLEStatTB
-0.29EPA / play+0.05
40%Success rate42%
267Total yards313
4.9Yards / play5.0
0Turnovers1
5-133rd down7-16
1-3Red zone1-4
29:22Possession30:38

Standouts

Pregame model pick

TB 65.5%

Missed

Low
Model spread
TB -5.5
Model total
44.0
ATS pick
Pass
-0.1 pt edge
Total pick
O 42.5
+1.5 pt edge
Market · DraftKings
CLE spread+8.5
CLE ML+330
Over41.5
TB spread-8.5
TB ML-425
Under41.5

Model breakdown

Why the model likes TB

The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.

  • Market priorhelps TB+4.1 pts · +11.8%

    Opening line TB -5.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 1 game

  • Rushing offensehurts TB-0.6 pts · -1.6%

    TB -0.55 vs CLE +0.10 EPA/rush (vs. league avg)

  • Pass defensehelps TB+0.6 pts · +1.6%

    TB +0.32 vs CLE +1.02 EPA/dropback allowed (vs. league avg)

  • Passing offensehelps TB+0.6 pts · +1.6%

    TB -0.09 vs CLE -0.55 EPA/dropback (vs. league avg)

  • Point differentialhelps TB+0.6 pts · +1.6%

    TB -6.0 vs CLE -24.0 per game

  • Home fieldhelps TB+0.4 pts · +1.2%

    TB at home (1.7 pts)

  • Run defensehurts TB-0.3 pts · -0.9%

    TB +0.21 vs CLE -0.08 EPA/rush allowed (vs. league avg)

Early-season sample (1 game), so the stats are shrunk toward average and the market carries more weight.

Model vs. market

TB win probability

GameLens
66%
Market
78%
Difference
-12%

Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.

Matchup Lens

The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.

Momentum tracker

0–100 score for who controls the game right now, weighted toward the most recent plays by EPA.

Final momentum

25/100CLE · Edge

Last 60 plays
CLETB

Recent swing plays

  • -63Q4 0:22(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to E.Egbuka.
  • -30Q4 0:45(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to T.Hurst.PENALTY on TB-G.Barton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLV 13 - No Play.
  • +19Q4 0:33(Shotgun) B.Mayfield scrambles right end to CLV 20 for 3 yards (C.Schwesinger).

Positive values push momentum toward TB.

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

Win probability

100.0% CLE win probability

TB aboveCLE below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

Key moments

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Highlights

Highlight clips post during and after the game.

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player props

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Target maps

Cleveland Browns
deep left10/1 · 0 yds3% of targets
deep middle0—
deep right0—
short left1715/17 · 128 yds55% of targets
short middle64/6 · 70 yds19% of targets
short right75/7 · 40 yds23% of targets
Line of scrimmage

31 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
deep left41/4 · 21 yds11% of targets
deep middle31/3 · 49 yds8% of targets
deep right51/5 · 24 yds14% of targets
short left109/10 · 21 yds28% of targets
short middle43/4 · 32 yds11% of targets
short right107/10 · 43 yds28% of targets
Line of scrimmage

36 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-by-play

Play-call model: 74/122 (61%) run/pass correct

  1. Q4 0:00CLE23–19

    END GAME

    WPA (home)-0.1%
    Home WP0.0%
  2. Q4 0:18CLE1st & 10 at CLE 2023–19

    D.Watson kneels to CLV 19 for -1 yards.

    EPA-0.64
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP0.1%
    Yards-1
    PredictedRun 53%✓correct
  3. Q4 0:22TB4th & 11 at CLE 2023–19

    (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to E.Egbuka.

    EPA-3.28
    WPA (home)-19.7%
    Home WP0.1%
    Yards0
    Air zonedeep middle
    TargetE.Egbuka (inc)
    PredictedPass 97%✓correct
  4. Q4 0:22TB4th & 11 at CLE 2023–19

    Timeout #3 by CLV at 00:22.

    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP19.8%
  5. Q4 0:22TB4th & 11 at CLE 2023–19

    Timeout #2 by TB at 00:22.

    WPA (home)-0.3%
    Home WP19.9%
  6. Q4 0:33TB3rd & 14 at CLE 2323–19

    (Shotgun) B.Mayfield scrambles right end to CLV 20 for 3 yards (C.Schwesinger).

    EPA+0.97
    WPA (home)+0.5%
    Home WP20.2%
    Yards3
    PredictedPass 96%×incorrect
  7. Q4 0:38TB2nd & 14 at CLE 2323–19

    (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to T.Hurst (M.Blackmon).

    EPA-0.70
    WPA (home)-5.6%
    Home WP19.7%
    Yards0
    Air zonedeep left
    TargetT.Hurst (inc)
    PredictedPass 88%✓correct
  8. Q4 0:45TB2nd & 4 at CLE 1323–19

    (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to T.Hurst.PENALTY on TB-G.Barton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLV 13 - No Play.

    EPA-1.27
    WPA (home)-42.5%
    Home WP25.4%
    Yards-10
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetT.Hurst (inc)
    PredictedPass 83%✓correct
  9. Q4 0:45TB2nd & 4 at CLE 1323–19

    Timeout #1 by TB at 00:45.

    WPA (home)-0.5%
    Home WP67.9%
  10. Q4 0:51TB1st & 10 at CLE 1923–19

    (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short left to T.Hurst to CLV 13 for 6 yards (M.Blackmon).

    EPA+0.98
    WPA (home)+12.7%
    Home WP68.4%
    Yards6
    Air zoneshort left
    TargetT.Hurst
    PredictedPass 81%✓correct
  11. Q4 1:23TB3rd & 1 at CLE 2523–19

    B.Irving left tackle to CLV 19 for 6 yards (M.Blackmon).

    EPA+1.35
    WPA (home)-0.4%
    Home WP55.6%
    Yards6
    PredictedPass 78%×incorrect
  12. Q4 2:00TB2nd & 4 at CLE 2823–19

    B.Irving up the middle to CLV 25 for 3 yards (M.Collins). ** Injury Update: CLV-R.Hickman has returned to the game.

    EPA-0.32
    WPA (home)+6.1%
    Home WP56.1%
    Yards3
    PredictedPass 62%×incorrect
  13. Q4 2:00TB2nd & 4 at CLE 2823–19

    Two-Minute Warning

    WPA (home)-0.5%
    Home WP50.0%
  14. Q4 2:33TB1st & 10 at CLE 3423–19

    B.Irving up the middle to CLV 28 for 6 yards (M.Graham; C.Schwesinger).

    EPA+2.06
    WPA (home)+4.3%
    Home WP50.5%
    Yards6
    PredictedPass 58%×incorrect
  15. Q4 2:37TB3rd & 1 at CLE 4223–19

    B.Mayfield pass short left to C.Godwin pushed ob at CLV 34 for 8 yards (M.Harden).

    EPA+1.50
    WPA (home)+2.5%
    Home WP46.1%
    Yards8
    Air zoneshort left
    TargetC.Godwin
    PredictedPass 54%✓correct
  16. Q4 3:18TB2nd & 6 at CLE 4723–19

    B.Irving right guard to CLV 42 for 5 yards (C.Schwesinger; I.McGuire).

    EPA-0.06
    WPA (home)+4.3%
    Home WP43.6%
    Yards5
    PredictedPass 62%×incorrect
  17. Q4 3:29TB2nd & 6 at CLE 4723–19

    Official Timeout at 03:29.

    WPA (home)-0.5%
    Home WP39.4%
  18. Q4 3:44TB1st & 10 at TB 4923–19

    B.Mayfield pass short right to C.Otton to CLV 47 for 4 yards (Q.Williams). CLV-R.Hickman was injured during the play.

    EPA+3.18
    WPA (home)-2.0%
    Home WP39.9%
    Yards4
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetC.Otton
    PredictedPass 58%✓correct
  19. Q4 3:51CLE23–19

    A.Szmyt kicks 64 yards from CLV 35 to TB 1. K.Johnson pushed ob at TB 49 for 48 yards (E.McNeil-Warren).

    WPA (home)+9.4%
    Home WP41.9%
  20. Q4 3:51CLE3rd & 2 at TB 17Score23–19

    D.Watson pass short left to B.Whiteheart for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Sunahara, Holder-C.Bojorquez.

    EPA+2.80
    WPA (home)-22.3%
    Home WP32.5%
    Yards17
    Air zoneshort left
    TargetB.Whiteheart
    PredictedRun 81%×incorrect
  21. Q4 4:03CLE2nd & 10 at TB 2516–19

    (Shotgun) D.Watson pass short left to D.Boston pushed ob at TB 17 for 8 yards (B.Morrison).

    EPA+0.32
    WPA (home)-10.1%
    Home WP54.8%
    Yards8
    Air zoneshort left
    TargetD.Boston
    PredictedPass 67%✓correct
  22. Q4 4:07CLE1st & 10 at TB 2516–19

    (Shotgun) D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to J.McLaughlin (Y.Diaby).

    EPA-0.71
    WPA (home)+3.9%
    Home WP64.9%
    Yards0
    Air zoneshort middle
    TargetJ.McLaughlin (inc)
    PredictedPass 54%✓correct
  23. Q4 4:53CLE3rd & 1 at TB 3116–19

    D.Watson pass short middle to H.Fannin to TB 25 for 6 yards (J.Trotter; A.Robinson).

    EPA+1.35
    WPA (home)+0.2%
    Home WP61.0%
    Yards6
    Air zoneshort middle
    TargetH.Fannin
    PredictedRun 52%×incorrect
  24. Q4 4:53CLE3rd & 1 at TB 3116–19

    Timeout #2 by CLV at 04:53.

    WPA (home)+1.1%
    Home WP60.8%
  25. Q4 5:36CLE2nd & 2 at TB 3216–19

    (Shotgun) R.Sanders up the middle to TB 31 for 1 yard (Y.Diaby; T.Smith).

    EPA+1.66
    WPA (home)+0.1%
    Home WP59.7%
    Yards1
    PredictedRun 57%✓correct
  26. Q4 6:22CLE1st & 10 at TB 4016–19

    (Shotgun) D.Watson pass short left to H.Fannin to TB 32 for 8 yards (K.Scott).

    EPA+0.30
    WPA (home)-6.1%
    Home WP59.6%
    Yards8
    Air zoneshort left
    TargetH.Fannin
    PredictedPass 53%✓correct
  27. Q4 6:48CLE3rd & 3 at TB 4916–19

    (Shotgun) D.Watson pass short right to D.Boston ran ob at TB 40 for 9 yards (Z.McCollum).

    EPA+1.68
    WPA (home)-5.0%
    Home WP65.7%
    Yards9
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetD.Boston
    PredictedPass 75%✓correct
  28. Q4 7:24CLE2nd & 5 at CLE 4916–19

    (Shotgun) D.Watson pass short left to Q.Judkins ran ob at TB 49 for 2 yards.

    EPA-0.45
    WPA (home)+0.8%
    Home WP70.7%
    Yards2
    Air zoneshort left
    TargetQ.Judkins
    PredictedPass 57%✓correct
  29. Q4 8:03CLE1st & 10 at CLE 4416–19

    D.Watson pass short left to Q.Judkins to CLV 49 for 5 yards (A.Anzalone; R.Nunez-Roches).

    EPA-0.08
    WPA (home)-0.8%
    Home WP69.9%
    Yards5
    Air zoneshort left
    TargetQ.Judkins
    PredictedPass 53%✓correct
  30. Q4 8:18CLE1st & 10 at CLE 4416–19

    (No Huddle) J.McLaughlin left tackle to CLV 46 for 2 yards (R.Nunez-Roches).Penalty on CLV-Z.Johnson, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at CLV 44 - No Play.Penalty on TB, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, offsetting.Penalty on TB-Y.Diaby, Defensive Offside, offsetting.

    EPA0.00
    WPA (home)+0.1%
    Home WP70.7%
    Yards0
    PredictedPass 53%×incorrect

Box score

Box score

Team statsCLETB
Total yards267313
Yards / play4.95
Turnovers01
3rd down5-137-16
Red zone1-31-4
Possession29:2230:38

Cleveland Browns

PassingC/ATTYDSTDINT
D.Watson24/3023820
RushingCARYDSYPCTD
D.Watson7223.10
Q.Judkins12211.80
R.Sanders242.00
J.McLaughlin133.00
K.Concepcion1-6-6.00
ReceivingREC/TGTYDSTD
D.Boston5/7951
H.Fannin Jr.5/6540
K.Concepcion6/6280
Q.Judkins5/5270
B.Whiteheart1/2171
DefenseTKLSACKINT
M.Harden501
C.Schwesinger1000
G.Delpit510
R.Hickman310

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

PassingC/ATTYDSTDINT
B.Mayfield21/3418211
RushingCARYDSYPCTD
B.Irving17895.20
B.Mayfield4297.30
C.Godwin Jr.11212.00
K.Gainwell2105.00
E.Egbuka1-3-3.00
ReceivingREC/TGTYDSTD
T.Johnson1/4490
C.Godwin Jr.3/3460
C.Otton5/6380
T.Hurst III2/7270
E.Egbuka3/5161
DefenseTKLSACKINT
J.Trotter1300
A.Robinson510
A.Anzalone800
B.Morrison700