NE @ JAX

Patriots

1-2

Jaguars

2-1

Final

Pregame model pick

JAX 51.8%

Correct

Low

Model spread: JAX -0.5
Model total: 41.5
ATS pick: Pass; -0.9 pt edge
Total pick: U 45.5; -4.0 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

NE spread+3

NE ML+130

Over46.5

JAX spread-3

JAX ML-155

Under46.5

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% JAX win probability

JAX aboveNE below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

defenseQ2 1:02
D.Maye pass short right intended for E.Chism INTERCEPTED by T.Hunter [F.Oluokun] at JAX -9. Touchback.
WPA +11.6%EPA -5.92
defenseQ1 3:58
D.Maye sacked at JAX 42 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by JAX-D.Hamilton at JAX 38.
WPA +11.1%EPA -10.00
defenseQ2 11:13
(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short middle intended for B.Strange INTERCEPTED by M.Jones (J.Reed) at JAX 33. M.Jones to JAX 21 for 12 yards (E.Cleveland; J.Meyers).
WPA -10.9%EPA -5.53
touchdownQ2 13:25
(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short middle to J.Cameron for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.
WPA +7.2%EPA +2.18
big playQ2 3:33
(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep left to D.Douglas to JAX 33 for 38 yards (T.Hunter).
WPA -5.6%EPA +3.40
touchdownQ2 4:23
(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short middle to J.Meyers for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.
WPA +5.4%EPA +2.03

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Recaps
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Game Highlights
Defense
Drake Maye loses grip on the ball as Jags recover the fumble
Touchdowns
Trevor Lawrence threads the needle to Josh Cameron for a Jaguars TD
Touchdowns
Trevor Lawrence slings it to Jakobi Meyers for a Jaguars TD
Touchdowns
Parker Washington makes a great snag off Trevor Lawrence's pass for a Jags TD
Defense
Jarrian Jones picks off Drake Maye to set up a Chris Rodriguez Jr. TD

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
DeMario Douglas NE	Receiving Yards	U 30.5(+1.0 from open)	25.2	64%	+11.3%	38Miss
Rhamondre Stevenson NE	Carries	O 8.5	9.7	64%	+11.2%	7Miss
Jakobi Meyers JAX	Receptions	U 3.5	2.8	62%	+9.8%	7Miss
Romeo Doubs NE	Receptions	U 3.5	2.8	62%	+9.8%	3Hit
TreVeyon Henderson NE	Rushing Yards	O 43.5(+3.0 from open)	50	62%	+9.3%	23Miss
TreVeyon Henderson NE	Carries	O 10.5(+2.0 from open)	11.6	62%	+9.2%	8Miss
Trevor Lawrence JAX	Rushing Yards	U 16.5(+1.0 from open)	12.5	61%	+8.1%	25Miss
Brenton Strange JAX	Receiving Yards	U 32.5(+5.0 from open)	28.3	60%	+7.7%	32Hit
Drake Maye NE	Passing TDs	U 1.5	1.2	59%	+7.0%	0Hit
Brenton Strange JAX	Receptions	U 3.5(+1.0 from open)	3	59%	+6.8%	3Hit
Rhamondre Stevenson NE	Rushing Yards	O 35.5(-5.0 from open)	39.3	59%	+6.1%	22Miss
TreVeyon Henderson NE	Receptions	U 1.5	1.2	58%	+6.0%	1Hit
Bhayshul Tuten JAX	Rushing Yards	O 50.5(-4.0 from open)	55.5	58%	+5.4%	73Hit
Rhamondre Stevenson NE	Rush + Rec Yards	O 54.5(-5.0 from open)	59.8	58%	+5.4%	38Miss
Trevor Lawrence JAX	Completions	U 20.5(+1.0 from open)	19.5	58%	+5.2%	19Hit
Parker Washington JAX	Receiving Yards	O 70.5(+9.0 from open)	77.2	58%	+5.1%	40Miss
Rhamondre Stevenson NE	Receiving Yards	O 15.5(+1.0 from open)	18.2	57%	+4.7%	16Hit
Hunter Henry NE	Receiving Yards	U 42.5(+1.0 from open)	39.3	56%	+3.5%	5Hit
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX	Receiving Yards	O 33.5(-5.0 from open)	35.7	55%	+2.7%	8Miss
Drake Maye NE	Completions	U 20.5(+1.0 from open)	19.8	55%	+2.7%	14Hit
TreVeyon Henderson NE	Receiving Yards	U 9.5(+2.0 from open)	7.6	55%	+2.6%	6Hit
Bhayshul Tuten JAX	Carries	O 12.5(-1.0 from open)	13	55%	+2.5%	15Hit
Drake Maye NE	Rushing Yards	O 26.5(+1.0 from open)	28.3	55%	+2.5%	18Miss
TreVeyon Henderson NE	Rush + Rec Yards	O 58.5(+5.0 from open)	62	55%	+2.4%	29Miss
Trevor Lawrence JAX	Passing TDs	O 1.5	1.7	55%	+2.3%	3Hit
Drake Maye NE	Passing Yards	U 225.5(+10.0 from open)	214.7	54%	+1.4%	199Hit
Mack Hollins NE	Receptions	O 2.5	2.7	54%	+1.3%	6Hit
DeMario Douglas NE	Receptions	O 2.5	2.7	54%	+1.3%	1Miss
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX	Receptions	O 2.5	2.7	54%	+1.3%	1Miss
Rhamondre Stevenson NE	Receptions	O 2.5	2.7	54%	+1.3%	3Hit
Romeo Doubs NE	Receiving Yards	O 42.5(+1.0 from open)	44.3	53%	+1.0%	49Hit
Kyle Williams NE	Receiving Yards	U 8.5(+1.0 from open)	7.3	53%	+0.7%	34Miss
Hunter Henry NE	Receptions	U 3.5	3.3	53%	+0.7%	1Hit
Bhayshul Tuten JAX	Rush + Rec Yards	O 67.5(-1.0 from open)	70	53%	+0.6%	90Hit
Parker Washington JAX	Receptions	O 5.5(+1.0 from open)	5.7	52%	+0.1%	3Miss
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX	Rushing Yards	U 20.5	19.7	52%	-0.2%	37Miss
Jakobi Meyers JAX	Receiving Yards	U 36.5(+3.0 from open)	35.7	52%	-0.6%	64Miss
Trevor Lawrence JAX	Passing Yards	U 229.5(+4.0 from open)	225.3	51%	-1.0%	182Hit
Bhayshul Tuten JAX	Receiving Yards	U 10.5(+1.0 from open)	10.2	51%	-1.5%	17Miss
Travis Hunter JAX	Receiving Yards	U 4.5(+4.0 from open)	4.3	50%	-2.0%	0Hit
Drake Maye NE	Carries	O 5.5	5.5	50%	-2.4%	4Miss
Mack Hollins NE	Receiving Yards	O 34.5(+2.0 from open)	34.5	50%	-2.4%	87Hit
Kyle Williams NE	Receptions	O 0.5	0.5	50%	-2.4%	1Hit
Travis Hunter JAX	Receptions	O 0.5	0.5	50%	-2.4%	0Miss
Bhayshul Tuten JAX	Receptions	O 1.5	1.5	50%	-2.4%	2Hit
TreVeyon Henderson NE	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Jakobi Meyers JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	1Hit
Brenton Strange JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Parker Washington JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	1Hit
Eli Raridon NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Josh Cameron JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	1Hit
Bhayshul Tuten JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	1Hit
Reggie Gilliam NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Cameron Latu NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Nate Boerkircher JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Efton Chism III NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
LeQuint Allen Jr. JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Ameer Abdullah JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Mack Hollins NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Hunter Henry NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Quintin Morris JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Trevor Lawrence JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Romeo Doubs NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
DeMario Douglas NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Corey Kiner NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Drake Maye NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Rhamondre Stevenson NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Kyle Williams NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Travis Hunter JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

New England Patriots

deep left52/5 · 59 yds

deep middle11/1 · 20 yds

deep right62/6 · 52 yds

short left64/6 · 50 yds

short middle31/3 · 6 yds

short right118/11 · 28 yds

Line of scrimmage

32 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Jacksonville Jaguars

deep left11/1 · 17 yds

deep middle0—

deep right0—

short left147/14 · 71 yds

short middle65/6 · 61 yds

short right76/7 · 33 yds

Line of scrimmage

28 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 74/120 (62%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00NE6–35
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP100.0%
Q4 0:23NE1st & 10 at NE 406–35
C.Kiner up the middle to NE 42 for 2 yards (D.Striggow).
EPA-2.08
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards2
PredictedPass 95%×incorrect
Q4 0:34JAX4th & 8 at JAX 276–35
L.Cooke punts 51 yards to NE 22, Center-R.Matiscik. E.Chism to NE 40 for 18 yards (J.Cameron).
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 0:34JAX4th & 8 at JAX 276–35
Timeout #2 by JAX at 00:34.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 1:18JAX3rd & 10 at JAX 256–35
A.Abdullah right guard to JAX 27 for 2 yards (J.Farmer; E.Hunter).
EPA+4.66
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards2
PredictedRun 77%✓correct
Q4 2:00JAX2nd & 7 at JAX 286–35
A.Abdullah right end to JAX 25 for -3 yards (E.Hunter).
EPA-1.08
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-3
PredictedRun 92%✓correct
Q4 2:00JAX2nd & 7 at JAX 286–35
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 2:33JAX1st & 10 at JAX 256–35
A.Abdullah right guard to JAX 28 for 3 yards (C.Canada).
EPA+4.85
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards3
PredictedRun 95%✓correct
Q4 2:39NE4th & 7 at JAX 256–35
(Shotgun) T.DeVito pass incomplete deep left to D.Douglas.
EPA-3.50
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards0
Air zonedeep left
TargetD.Douglas (inc)
PredictedPass 97%✓correct
Q4 2:43NE3rd & 7 at JAX 256–35
(Shotgun) T.DeVito pass incomplete deep left to K.Williams.
EPA-0.85
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards0
Air zonedeep left
TargetK.Williams (inc)
PredictedPass 97%✓correct
Q4 2:49NE2nd & 8 at JAX 266–35
T.DeVito pass short right to E.Chism pushed ob at JAX 25 for 1 yard (J.Jones).
EPA-0.57
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards1
Air zoneshort right
TargetE.Chism
PredictedPass 92%✓correct
Q4 3:27NE1st & 10 at JAX 286–35
C.Kiner up the middle to JAX 26 for 2 yards (J.Tavai; M.Dickerson).
EPA-0.46
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards2
PredictedPass 86%×incorrect
Q4 4:03NE2nd & 8 at JAX 376–35
(Shotgun) T.DeVito pass short left to C.Kiner to JAX 28 for 9 yards (R.Orhorhoro; R.Lane).
EPA+1.25
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards9
Air zoneshort left
TargetC.Kiner
PredictedPass 91%✓correct
Q4 4:45NE1st & 10 at JAX 396–35
C.Kiner up the middle to JAX 37 for 2 yards (M.Dickerson).
EPA-0.46
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards2
PredictedPass 86%×incorrect
Q4 5:25NE3rd & 8 at NE 416–35
(Shotgun) T.DeVito pass deep middle to R.Doubs to JAX 39 for 20 yards (C.Ransaw).
EPA+2.74
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards20
Air zonedeep middle
TargetR.Doubs
PredictedPass 97%✓correct
Q4 6:01NE2nd & 8 at NE 416–35
C.Kiner up the middle to NE 41 for no gain (R.Orhorhoro).
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards0
PredictedPass 91%×incorrect
Q4 6:38NE1st & 10 at NE 396–35
(Shotgun) T.DeVito scrambles right end to NE 41 for 2 yards (E.Murray).
EPA-0.46
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards2
PredictedPass 85%×incorrect
Q4 7:18NE2nd & 3 at NE 346–35
(Shotgun) C.Kiner up the middle to NE 39 for 5 yards (R.Orhorhoro; F.Oluokun).
EPA+0.69
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards5
PredictedPass 79%×incorrect
Q4 7:57NE1st & 10 at NE 276–35
C.Kiner up the middle to NE 34 for 7 yards (A.Johnson; R.Orhorhoro).
EPA+0.17
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards7
PredictedPass 85%×incorrect
Q4 8:02JAX6–35
C.Little kicks 64 yards from JAX 35 to NE 1. K.Williams to NE 27 for 26 yards (B.Combs; J.Mcleod).
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 8:02JAX & Goal at NE 156–35
Official Timeout at 08:02.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 8:02JAX1st & Goal at NE 1Score6–35
B.Tuten up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.
EPA+0.42
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards1
PredictedRun 92%✓correct
Q4 8:06JAX1st & 1 at NE 16–28
Timeout #1 by NE at 08:06.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 8:56JAX3rd & 4 at NE 166–28
(Shotgun) T.Lawrence left end to NE 1 for 15 yards.
EPA+2.48
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards15
PredictedRun 64%✓correct
Q4 9:40JAX2nd & 7 at NE 196–28
B.Tuten up the middle to NE 16 for 3 yards (K.Byard).
EPA-0.32
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards3
PredictedRun 71%✓correct
Q4 10:26JAX1st & 10 at NE 226–28
B.Tuten left end to NE 19 for 3 yards (J.Pharms; R.Spillane).
EPA-0.33
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards3
PredictedRun 81%✓correct
Q4 11:04JAX2nd & 7 at NE 356–28
T.Lawrence pass short right to J.Meyers pushed ob at NE 22 for 13 yards (C.Woods).
EPA+1.49
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards13
Air zoneshort right
TargetJ.Meyers
PredictedRun 71%×incorrect
Q4 11:46JAX1st & 10 at NE 386–28
B.Tuten up the middle to NE 35 for 3 yards (M.Brown; R.Spillane).
EPA-0.33
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards3
PredictedRun 81%✓correct
Q4 12:34JAX2nd & 4 at NE 436–28
B.Tuten right end to NE 38 for 5 yards (C.Elliss; C.Woods).
EPA+0.75
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards5
PredictedRun 78%✓correct
Q4 13:09JAX1st & 10 at NE 496–28
B.Tuten right end pushed ob at NE 43 for 6 yards (C.Woods).
EPA+0.05
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.8%
Yards6
PredictedRun 81%✓correct

Box score

Team stats	NE	JAX
Total yards	317	315
Yards / play	5.3	5.2
Turnovers	3	1
3rd down	4-12	8-12
Red zone	0-3	5-5
Possession	28:07	31:53

New England Patriots

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	INT
D.Maye	14/25	199	2
T.DeVito	3/5	30	0
E.Chism III	1/1	16	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
T.Henderson	8	23	2.9
R.Stevenson	7	22	3.1
D.Maye	4	18	4.5
C.Kiner	6	18	3.0
T.DeVito	1	2	2.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS
M.Hollins	6/9	87
R.Doubs	3/4	49
D.Douglas	1/5	38
K.Williams	1/3	34
R.Stevenson	3/3	16

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
M.Jones	4	0	1
C.Davis III	8	0	0
G.Jacas	5	0.5	0
R.Spillane	7	0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
T.Lawrence	19/29	182	3	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
B.Tuten	15	73	4.9	1
C.Rodriguez Jr.	8	37	4.6	1
T.Lawrence	4	25	6.3	0
A.Abdullah	3	2	0.7	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
J.Meyers	7/8	64	1
P.Washington	3/5	40	1
B.Strange	3/5	32	0
B.Tuten	2/2	17	0
J.Cameron	1/2	12	1

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
R.Orhorhoro	6	1	0
J.Jones	4	0	1
T.Hunter	4	0	1
D.Hamilton	5	0.5	0

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

New England Patriots

Jacksonville Jaguars