CAR @ CLE

Panthers

1-2

Browns

2-1

Final

Pregame model pick

CAR 58.9%

Missed · ATS loss

Low

Model spread: CLE +3
Model total: 43.9
ATS pick: CAR -1.5; -1.5 pt edge
Total pick: O 39.5; +4.4 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

CAR spread-2.5

CAR ML-130

Over41.5

CLE spread+2.5

CLE ML+110

Under41.5

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% CLE win probability

CLE aboveCAR below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

clutchQ4 1:48
(Shotgun) D.Watson pass short left to H.Fannin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-Ja.Horn was injured during the play. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. D.Watson pass to D.Boston is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
WPA +36.2%EPA +3.02
clutchQ4 2:36
(Shotgun) D.Watson pass deep right intended for K.Concepcion INTERCEPTED by A.Evans (W.Lee) at CAR -3. Touchback. CLV-D.Watson was injured during the play. PENALTY on CAR-B.Okereke, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 29 - No Play.
WPA +20.2%
clutchQ4 0:37
(Shotgun) B.Young pass deep middle to B.Tremayne to CAR 42 for 20 yards (C.Schwesinger) [M.Collins].
WPA -16.9%EPA +2.49
clutchQ4 9:38
(Shotgun) D.Watson sacked at CAR 38 for -10 yards (T.Gipson).
WPA -12.9%EPA -1.98
touchdownQ2 1:37
(Shotgun) D.Watson pass short right to H.Fannin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on CAR-T.Moehrig, Defensive Holding, declined. A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Sunahara, Holder-C.Bojorquez.
WPA +12.6%EPA +2.57
clutchQ4 4:25
(Shotgun) B.Young pass short left to J.Metchie for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. C.Hubbard rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT FAILS. CAR-D.Lewis was injured during the play.
WPA -11.2%EPA +1.12

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Defense
Mason Graham gets huge fourth-down sack on Bryce Young
Touchdowns
Deshaun Watson pads Browns' lead with TD pass to Harold Fannin Jr.
Big plays
Brycen Tremayne leaps to haul in tough 35-yard catch for Panthers
Touchdowns
Bryce Young TD pass gives Panthers lead in fourth quarter
Clutch
Deshaun Watson finds Harold Fannin Jr. for late TD to give Browns the lead
Recaps
Carolina Panthers vs. Cleveland Browns: Game Highlights

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
Jalen Coker CAR	Receiving Yards	O 57.5(-4.0 from open)	72.3	70%	+17.3%	18Miss
Raheim Sanders CLE	Receptions	O 0.5	1	69%	+16.7%	4Hit
Jalen Coker CAR	Receptions	O 4.5(-1.0 from open)	5.7	68%	+16.0%	2Miss
Denzel Boston CLE	Receiving Yards	O 46.5(-2.0 from open)	56.7	67%	+14.5%	41Miss
Xavier Legette CAR	Receiving Yards	O 12.5(+1.0 from open)	19	67%	+14.4%	0Miss
Chuba Hubbard CAR	Carries	U 16.5(-1.0 from open)	14.7	65%	+12.9%	19Miss
Quinshon Judkins CLE	Rushing Yards	U 61.5(+6.0 from open)	50	65%	+12.2%	70Miss
Bryce Young CAR	Passing TDs	O 1.5	2	64%	+11.5%	1Miss
Bryce Young CAR	Passing Yards	O 218.5(-6.0 from open)	253.7	63%	+10.2%	291Hit
Quinshon Judkins CLE	Carries	U 16.5(+2.0 from open)	15	63%	+10.2%	18Miss
Bryce Young CAR	Carries	U 3.5	2.8	62%	+9.8%	0Hit
Raheim Sanders CLE	Receiving Yards	O 2.5	7	62%	+9.4%	34Hit
Tetairoa McMillan CAR	Receiving Yards	O 61.5(+3.0 from open)	70.3	61%	+8.9%	17Miss
Quinshon Judkins CLE	Rush + Rec Yards	U 78.5(+5.0 from open)	68.7	60%	+7.5%	79Miss
Darren Waller CAR	Receiving Yards	O 19.5	23.2	60%	+7.3%	51Hit
KC Concepcion CLE	Receptions	O 3.5	4	59%	+6.8%	2Miss
Bryce Young CAR	Completions	O 19.5(-1.0 from open)	20.7	59%	+6.7%	26Hit
Chuba Hubbard CAR	Receiving Yards	O 14.5(-1.0 from open)	17.8	59%	+6.4%	28Hit
Blake Whiteheart CLE	Receiving Yards	O 5.5	8.8	59%	+6.4%	0Miss
Quinshon Judkins CLE	Receiving Yards	O 13.5	16.3	57%	+5.1%	9Miss
Quinshon Judkins CLE	Receptions	O 2.5	2.8	57%	+4.9%	2Miss
Jerry Jeudy CLE	Receiving Yards	U 20.5	18	57%	+4.2%	0Hit
Blake Whiteheart CLE	Receptions	O 0.5	0.7	57%	+4.2%	0Miss
Chuba Hubbard CAR	Rushing Yards	U 67.5(-4.0 from open)	62	56%	+4.1%	82Miss
Bryce Young CAR	Rushing Yards	U 14.5(-1.0 from open)	12.3	56%	+3.3%	0Hit
Deshaun Watson CLE	Carries	O 5.5	5.8	55%	+2.5%	11Hit
Deshaun Watson CLE	Passing Yards	O 187.5(-2.0 from open)	198.8	55%	+2.4%	144Miss
Jerry Jeudy CLE	Receptions	U 1.5	1.3	55%	+2.3%	0Hit
Tommy Tremble CAR	Receptions	O 1.5	1.7	55%	+2.3%	3Hit
Xavier Legette CAR	Receptions	U 1.5	1.3	55%	+2.3%	0Hit
Tommy Tremble CAR	Receiving Yards	O 9.5	11.2	54%	+2.0%	41Hit
Deshaun Watson CLE	Completions	O 18.5	19	54%	+1.6%	16Miss
Deshaun Watson CLE	Rushing Yards	O 25.5(-2.0 from open)	27	54%	+1.6%	45Hit
Raheim Sanders CLE	Rushing Yards	U 6.5(-1.0 from open)	5.2	54%	+1.1%	17Miss
Chuba Hubbard CAR	Anytime TD	Yes	1.5	53%	+0.9%	0Miss
Denzel Boston CLE	Anytime TD	Yes	1	53%	+0.9%	0Miss
Chuba Hubbard CAR	Rush + Rec Yards	U 85.5(-6.0 from open)	82.2	53%	+0.7%	110Miss
Tetairoa McMillan CAR	Receptions	O 4.5	4.7	53%	+0.3%	2Miss
KC Concepcion CLE	Receiving Yards	O 33.5(+1.0 from open)	34.2	52%	-0.8%	9Miss
KC Concepcion CLE	Rush + Rec Yards	U 42.5(+2.0 from open)	41.7	52%	-0.8%	9Hit
AJ Dillon CAR	Rushing Yards	U 13.5	13.2	51%	-1.5%	16Miss
KC Concepcion CLE	Rushing Yards	U 5.5	5.2	51%	-1.5%	0Hit
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE	Receiving Yards	O 36.5(-2.0 from open)	36.8	51%	-1.7%	51Hit
Deshaun Watson CLE	Passing TDs	O 1.5	1.5	50%	-2.4%	2Hit
Darren Waller CAR	Receptions	O 2.5	2.5	50%	-2.4%	5Hit
Chuba Hubbard CAR	Receptions	O 2.5	2.5	50%	-2.4%	4Hit
Denzel Boston CLE	Receptions	O 3.5	3.5	50%	-2.4%	2Miss
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE	Receptions	O 3.5	3.5	50%	-2.4%	7Hit
Darren Waller CAR	Anytime TD	Yes	1	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Blake Whiteheart CLE	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Bryce Young CAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Jalen Coker CAR	Anytime TD	Yes	1	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
John Metchie III CAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	1Hit
Carsen Ryan CLE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Jaleel McLaughlin CLE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Isaiah Bond CLE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Deshaun Watson CLE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Feleipe Franks CAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
AJ Dillon CAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Jerry Jeudy CLE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Brycen Tremayne CAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Tommy Tremble CAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Xavier Legette CAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Raheim Sanders CLE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Malachi Corley CLE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Mitchell Evans CAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Tetairoa McMillan CAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Quinshon Judkins CLE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
KC Concepcion CLE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	2Hit

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Carolina Panthers

deep left31/3 · 31 yds

deep middle41/4 · 20 yds

deep right0—

short left1811/18 · 103 yds

short middle43/4 · 49 yds

short right1410/14 · 88 yds

Line of scrimmage

43 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Cleveland Browns

deep left0—

deep middle20/2 · 0 yds

deep right31/3 · 28 yds

short left147/14 · 58 yds

short middle22/2 · 19 yds

short right137/13 · 39 yds

Line of scrimmage

34 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 92/138 (67%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00CLE18–21
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP100.0%
Q4 0:09CLE1st & 10 at CLE 4418–21
D.Watson kneels to CLV 43 for -1 yards.
EPA-2.37
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 51%✓correct
Q4 0:16CAR3rd & 10 at CAR 42Turnover18–21
(Shotgun) B.Young pass short left intended for D.Waller INTERCEPTED by R.Hickman (D.Barnett) at CLV 46. R.Hickman to CLV 44 for -2 yards (D.Moore).
EPA-3.18
WPA (home)+8.1%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-2
Air zoneshort left
TargetD.Waller (inc)
PredictedPass 96%✓correct
Q4 0:21CAR2nd & 10 at CAR 4218–21
(Shotgun) B.Young pass incomplete deep middle to D.Moore [D.Barnett].
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)+2.4%
Home WP91.8%
Yards0
Air zonedeep middle
TargetD.Moore (inc)
PredictedPass 88%✓correct
Q4 0:22CAR1st & 10 at CAR 4218–21
(No Huddle) B.Young spiked the ball to stop the clock.
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)+7.9%
Home WP89.5%
Yards0
PredictedPass 80%✓correct
Q4 0:37CAR2nd & 16 at CAR 2218–21
(Shotgun) B.Young pass deep middle to B.Tremayne to CAR 42 for 20 yards (C.Schwesinger) [M.Collins].
EPA+2.49
WPA (home)-16.9%
Home WP81.5%
Yards20
Air zonedeep middle
TargetB.Tremayne
PredictedPass 88%✓correct
Q4 0:37CAR2nd & 10 at CAR 2818–21
(Shotgun) PENALTY on CAR-M.Freeling, False Start, 6 yards, enforced at CAR 28 - No Play.
WPA (home)+7.1%
Home WP98.4%
Q4 0:41CAR1st & 10 at CAR 2818–21
(No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Young pass incomplete short left to D.Waller.
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)+7.6%
Home WP91.3%
Yards0
Air zoneshort left
TargetD.Waller (inc)
PredictedPass 80%✓correct
Q4 1:01CAR1st & 10 at CAR 1718–21
(Shotgun) B.Young pass short left to D.Waller to CAR 28 for 11 yards (M.Harden).
EPA+0.79
WPA (home)-5.3%
Home WP83.7%
Yards11
Air zoneshort left
TargetD.Waller
PredictedPass 80%✓correct
Q4 1:05CLE4th & 1 at CAR 1518–21
Q.Judkins up the middle to CAR 17 for -2 yards (P.Jones).
EPA-3.97
WPA (home)-6.3%
Home WP89.1%
Yards-2
PredictedRun 51%✓correct
Q4 1:05CLE4th & 1 at CAR 1518–21
Timeout #3 by CAR at 01:05.
WPA (home)+2.8%
Home WP95.4%
Q4 1:09CLE3rd & 1 at CAR 1518–21
(Shotgun) D.Watson left end to CAR 15 for no gain (T.Dodson).
EPA+0.23
WPA (home)-7.3%
Home WP92.7%
Yards0
PredictedRun 56%✓correct
Q4 1:13CLE2nd & 2 at CAR 1618–21
Q.Judkins right tackle to CAR 15 for 1 yard (T.Dodson; B.Okereke).Penalty on CLV, Illegal Formation, declined.
EPA-0.57
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards1
PredictedRun 61%✓correct
Q4 1:13CLE2nd & 2 at CAR 1618–21
Timeout #2 by CAR at 01:13.
WPA (home)+0.5%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 1:17CLE1st & 10 at CAR 2418–21
Q.Judkins up the middle to CAR 16 for 8 yards (W.Lee).
EPA+1.45
WPA (home)+2.0%
Home WP99.4%
Yards8
PredictedRun 51%✓correct
Q4 1:27CAR4th & 16 at CAR 1618–21
(Shotgun) B.Young pass short left to D.Waller to CAR 24 for 8 yards (M.Harden; C.Schwesinger).
EPA-2.43
WPA (home)+4.4%
Home WP97.4%
Yards8
Air zoneshort left
TargetD.Waller
PredictedPass 97%✓correct
Q4 1:27CAR4th & 16 at CAR 1618–21
Timeout #1 by CAR at 01:27.
WPA (home)+2.3%
Home WP93.0%
Q4 1:34CAR3rd & 10 at CAR 2218–21
(Shotgun) B.Young sacked at CAR 16 for -6 yards (M.Graham).
EPA+4.44
WPA (home)+9.0%
Home WP90.7%
PredictedPass 96%✓correct
Q4 1:40CAR2nd & 10 at CAR 2218–21
(Shotgun) B.Young pass short right to C.Hubbard pushed ob at CAR 22 for no gain (Q.Williams).
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)+2.7%
Home WP81.7%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetC.Hubbard
PredictedPass 88%✓correct
Q4 1:44CAR1st & 10 at CAR 2218–21
(Shotgun) B.Young pass incomplete short left to J.Metchie (D.Ward). ** Injury Update: CAR-D.Lewis has returned to the game.
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)+4.0%
Home WP78.9%
Yards0
Air zoneshort left
TargetJ.Metchie (inc)
PredictedPass 80%✓correct
Q4 1:48CLE18–21
A.Szmyt kicks 59 yards from CLV 35 to CAR 6. D.Moore to CAR 22 for 16 yards (M.Corley; E.McNeil-Warren).
WPA (home)+9.0%
Home WP74.9%
Q4 1:48CLE3rd & 10 at CAR 14Score18–21
(Shotgun) D.Watson pass short left to H.Fannin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-Ja.Horn was injured during the play. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. D.Watson pass to D.Boston is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
EPA+3.02
WPA (home)+36.2%
Home WP65.9%
Yards14
Air zoneshort left
TargetH.Fannin
PredictedPass 85%✓correct
Q4 2:00CLE2nd & 10 at CAR 1418–13
(Shotgun) D.Watson pass incomplete short right to D.Boston. ** Injury Update: CLV-D.Watson has returned to the game.
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)-5.1%
Home WP29.7%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetD.Boston (inc)
PredictedPass 70%✓correct
Q4 2:00CLE2nd & 10 at CAR 1418–13
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP34.8%
Q4 2:29CLE1st & 10 at CAR 1418–13
(Shotgun) S.Sanders pass short right to Q.Judkins to CAR 14 for no gain (W.Lee; T.Dodson).
EPA+0.29
WPA (home)-8.3%
Home WP34.7%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetQ.Judkins
PredictedPass 57%✓correct
Q4 2:36CLE2nd & 15 at CAR 2918–13
(Shotgun) D.Watson pass deep right intended for K.Concepcion INTERCEPTED by A.Evans (W.Lee) at CAR -3. Touchback. CLV-D.Watson was injured during the play. PENALTY on CAR-B.Okereke, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 29 - No Play.
WPA (home)+20.2%
Home WP43.0%
Air zonedeep right
TargetK.Concepcion
Q4 2:41CLE2nd & 10 at CAR 2418–13
(Shotgun) D.Watson pass short left to K.Concepcion to CAR 19 for 5 yards (L.Ransom).PENALTY on CLV-M.Corley, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 24 - No Play.
WPA (home)-7.3%
Home WP22.8%
Air zoneshort left
TargetK.Concepcion
Q4 2:48CLE1st & 10 at CAR 2418–13
(Shotgun) D.Watson pass incomplete short left.
EPA-0.71
WPA (home)-6.3%
Home WP30.1%
Yards0
PredictedPass 57%✓correct
Q4 2:55CLE3rd & 3 at CAR 4518–13
(Shotgun) D.Watson scrambles left guard ran ob at CAR 24 for 21 yards (L.Ransom).
EPA+2.54
WPA (home)+10.8%
Home WP36.4%
Yards21
PredictedPass 77%×incorrect
Q4 3:34CLE2nd & 10 at CLE 4818–13
(Shotgun) D.Watson pass short left to H.Fannin to CAR 45 for 7 yards (Z.Wheatley).
EPA+0.19
WPA (home)+3.5%
Home WP25.6%
Yards7
Air zoneshort left
TargetH.Fannin
PredictedPass 70%✓correct

Box score

Team stats	CAR	CLE
Total yards	360	259
Yards / play	4.9	4.1
Turnovers	1	1
3rd down	4-15	5-15
Red zone	1-3	2-3
Possession	29:53	30:07

Carolina Panthers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
B.Young	26/48	291	1	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
C.Hubbard	19	82	4.3	0
A.Dillon	4	16	4.0	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS
B.Tremayne	4/6	83
D.Waller	5/8	51
T.Tremble	3/4	41
M.Evans	3/3	36
C.Hubbard	4/4	28

Defense	TKL	SACK
L.Ransom	8	0
P.Umanmielen	3	1
W.Lee III	6	0
T.Dodson	6	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
D.Watson	16/30	144	2	0
S.Sanders	1/1	0	0	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
Q.Judkins	18	70	3.9
D.Watson	11	45	4.1
R.Sanders	1	17	17.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
H.Fannin Jr.	7/9	51	2
D.Boston	2/4	41	0
R.Sanders	4/5	34	0
Q.Judkins	2/2	9	0
K.Concepcion	2/9	9	0

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
M.Graham	7	2	0
R.Hickman	8	0	1
Q.Williams	9	0	0
M.Blackmon	8	0	0

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Cleveland Browns