CIN @ HOU

Bengals

2-0

Texans

0-2

Final

Pregame model pick

HOU 51.3%

Missed · ATS win

Low

Model spread: HOU -0.5
Model total: 48.4
ATS pick: CIN +2.5; -2.0 pt edge
Total pick: O 46.5; +1.9 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

CIN spread+3

CIN ML+124

Over45.5

HOU spread-3

HOU ML-148

Under45.5

Why the model likes HOU

The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.

Market priorhelps HOU+1.9 pts · +5.5%
Opening line HOU -2.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 1 game
Pass defensehurts HOU-1.3 pts · -3.8%
HOU +0.82 vs CIN -0.09 EPA/dropback allowed (vs. league avg)
Home fieldhelps HOU+0.4 pts · +1.3%
HOU at home (1.7 pts)
Point differentialhurts HOU-0.4 pts · -1.0%
HOU -5.0 vs CIN +6.0 per game
Run defensehurts HOU-0.2 pts · -0.7%
HOU -0.29 vs CIN -0.55 EPA/rush allowed (vs. league avg)
Rushing offensehelps HOU+0.1 pts · +0.3%
HOU +0.29 vs CIN +0.21 EPA/rush (vs. league avg)
Passing offensehurts HOU-0.1 pts · -0.2%
HOU +0.28 vs CIN +0.32 EPA/dropback (vs. league avg)

Early-season sample (1 game), so the stats are shrunk toward average and the market carries more weight.

Model vs. market

HOU win probability

GameLens: 51%
Market: 57%
Difference: -6%

Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.

Matchup Lens

The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.

Edge: HOUMajor
HOU red-zone defense vs CIN red-zone offense
CIN red-zone TD rate
40% (19th)
HOU red-zone TD rate allowed
33% (2nd)
Edge: CINMajor
CIN explosive plays vs HOU big-play defense
CIN explosive-play rate
12.7% (7th)
HOU explosive-play rate allowed
15.7% (31st)
Edge: CINClear
CIN passing attack vs HOU secondary
CIN EPA per dropback
+0.35 (7th)
HOU EPA per dropback allowed
+0.85 (30th)
Edge: CINSlight
CIN run defense vs HOU run game
HOU EPA per rush
+0.32 (9th)
CIN EPA per rush allowed
-0.52 (2nd)
Edge: CINSlight
CIN pass rush vs HOU offensive line
HOU sack rate allowed
7.3% (18th)
CIN sack rate generated
12.5% (6th)

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% CIN win probability

HOU aboveCIN below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

clutchQ4 2:00
Two-Minute Warning
WPA +47.7%
clutchQ4 2:00
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short right to D.Schultz to HST 30 for 11 yards (D.Hill; D.Knight).
WPA -47.6%EPA +7.46
touchdownQ2 3:29
(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass deep right to J.Chase for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner, Holder-R.Rehkow.
WPA -11.1%EPA +2.90
touchdownQ3 3:03
(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass deep right to J.Chase for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner, Holder-R.Rehkow.
WPA -8.5%EPA +3.09
big playQ1 3:57
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short right to D.Schultz to 50 for 35 yards (J.Battle).
WPA +6.1%EPA +3.55
big playQ2 10:08
C.Stroud pass short middle to F.Moreau to CIN 42 for 25 yards (B.Cook).
WPA +3.8%EPA +1.80

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Highlight clips post during and after the game.

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
Mike Gesicki CIN	Receiving Yards	O 22.5	33.6	77%	+24.6%	0Miss
Jaylin Noel HOU	Receiving Yards	O 27.5(+2.0 from open)	32.6	63%	+10.9%	31Hit
Ja'Marr Chase CIN	Receiving Yards	U 76.5(+4.0 from open)	63.6	63%	+10.8%	75Hit
Ja'Marr Chase CIN	Receptions	U 6.5	5.6	62%	+9.7%	7Miss
Samaje Perine CIN	Receiving Yards	O 7.5	12	62%	+9.4%	16Hit
Foster Moreau HOU	Receptions	O 0.5	0.8	62%	+9.4%	2Hit
Joe Burrow CIN	Carries	O 2.5	3	61%	+8.4%	1Miss
Mike Gesicki CIN	Receptions	O 2.5	3	61%	+8.4%	0Miss
C.J. Stroud HOU	Completions	O 19.5	20.8	60%	+7.7%	30Hit
Kayshon Boutte HOU	Receptions	U 3.5(+1.0 from open)	3	59%	+6.8%	3Hit
Samaje Perine CIN	Receptions	O 1.5	1.8	58%	+6.0%	1Miss
Drew Sample CIN	Receptions	O 1.5	1.8	58%	+6.0%	0Miss
David Montgomery HOU	Receptions	O 1.5	1.8	58%	+6.0%	2Hit
David Montgomery HOU	Carries	O 15.5(-1.0 from open)	16.4	58%	+5.5%	6Miss
Kayshon Boutte HOU	Receiving Yards	U 36.5(+3.0 from open)	33.4	57%	+4.3%	37Miss
Woody Marks HOU	Receiving Yards	U 10.5	8	57%	+4.2%	27Miss
Woody Marks HOU	Rushing Yards	O 30.5	32.8	56%	+3.6%	8Miss
Joe Burrow CIN	Rushing Yards	O 9.5	11.6	56%	+3.2%	-1Miss
Drew Sample CIN	Receiving Yards	O 8.5(-1.0 from open)	10.6	56%	+3.2%	0Miss
Chase Brown CIN	Receptions	O 3.5	3.8	56%	+3.1%	3Miss
Chase Brown CIN	Carries	O 13.5(-1.0 from open)	14	55%	+2.3%	20Hit
Nico Collins HOU	Receptions	O 5.5	5.8	54%	+2.0%	0Miss
Foster Moreau HOU	Receiving Yards	O 7.5(+1.0 from open)	9	54%	+1.6%	34Hit
David Montgomery HOU	Receiving Yards	O 11.5	13	54%	+1.6%	14Hit
Woody Marks HOU	Carries	O 7.5	7.8	54%	+1.4%	8Hit
C.J. Stroud HOU	Passing Yards	O 221.5(-19.0 from open)	232	54%	+1.4%	353Hit
Dalton Schultz HOU	Receiving Yards	U 43.5(+6.0 from open)	41.8	53%	+0.7%	140Miss
Joe Burrow CIN	Passing TDs	U 1.5	1.4	53%	+0.4%	2Miss
C.J. Stroud HOU	Passing TDs	O 1.5	1.6	53%	+0.4%	0Miss
Andrei Iosivas CIN	Receptions	O 1.5	1.6	53%	+0.4%	1Miss
Woody Marks HOU	Receptions	U 1.5	1.4	53%	+0.4%	5Miss
Jaylin Noel HOU	Receptions	U 2.5	2.4	52%	-0.2%	1Hit
Joe Burrow CIN	Completions	O 23.5	23.8	52%	-0.3%	20Miss
Tee Higgins CIN	Receiving Yards	O 52.5(+1.0 from open)	53.8	52%	-0.4%	95Hit
Woody Marks HOU	Rush + Rec Yards	U 45.5(+1.0 from open)	44.4	52%	-0.5%	35Hit
C.J. Stroud HOU	Rushing Yards	O 11.5	12.2	52%	-0.5%	29Hit
Tee Higgins CIN	Receptions	U 3.5	3.4	52%	-0.5%	5Miss
Xavier Hutchinson HOU	Receptions	U 3.5(+1.0 from open)	3.4	52%	-0.5%	3Hit
Samaje Perine CIN	Carries	O 4.5	4.6	52%	-0.8%	2Miss
Dalton Schultz HOU	Receptions	U 4.5(+1.0 from open)	4.4	52%	-0.8%	12Miss
Samaje Perine CIN	Rushing Yards	O 17.5	18	51%	-1.1%	6Miss
Nico Collins HOU	Receiving Yards	O 69.5	70.6	51%	-1.1%	0Miss
David Montgomery HOU	Rushing Yards	U 63.5(-3.0 from open)	62.8	51%	-1.5%	10Hit
Chase Brown CIN	Receiving Yards	O 20.5	20.8	51%	-1.6%	2Miss
Andrei Iosivas CIN	Receiving Yards	U 13.5(-1.0 from open)	13.2	51%	-1.6%	7Hit
Xavier Hutchinson HOU	Receiving Yards	U 33.5(+6.0 from open)	33.2	51%	-1.7%	37Miss
David Montgomery HOU	Rush + Rec Yards	U 81.5(-1.0 from open)	81	50%	-1.9%	24Hit
Chase Brown CIN	Rushing Yards	O 54.5(-4.0 from open)	54.8	50%	-2.0%	80Hit
Chase Brown CIN	Rush + Rec Yards	U 79.5(-2.0 from open)	79.2	50%	-2.1%	82Miss
Joe Burrow CIN	Passing Yards	O 249.5(-1.0 from open)	250.4	50%	-2.1%	207Miss
Mike Gesicki CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
David Montgomery HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	3	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Nico Collins HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Chase Brown CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Tanner Hudson CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Samaje Perine CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Dalton Schultz HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Drew Sample CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Foster Moreau HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Joe Burrow CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Tee Higgins CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Ja'Marr Chase CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	2Hit
Andrei Iosivas CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Dohnte Meyers CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Cade Stover HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Kayshon Boutte HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Woody Marks HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Tahj Brooks CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Jared Wayne HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
C.J. Stroud HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Jaylin Noel HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Xavier Hutchinson HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Marlin Klein HOU	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Cincinnati Bengals

deep left0—

deep middle0—

deep right33/3 · 73 yds

short left84/8 · 21 yds

short middle119/11 · 93 yds

short right94/9 · 20 yds

Line of scrimmage

31 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Houston Texans

deep left32/3 · 52 yds

deep middle11/1 · 25 yds

deep right50/5 · 0 yds

short left106/10 · 59 yds

short middle136/13 · 81 yds

short right2016/20 · 141 yds

Line of scrimmage

52 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 106/139 (76%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00CIN20–6
END GAME
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.0%
Q4 0:12CIN1st & 10 at CIN 3820–6
J.Burrow kneels to CIN 37 for -1 yards.
EPA-1.94
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 87%✓correct
Q4 0:19HOU4th & 17 at CIN 1920–6
(Shotgun) C.Stroud sacked at CIN 38 for -19 yards (C.Johnson).
EPA-4.32
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
PredictedPass 97%✓correct
Q4 0:25HOU3rd & 17 at CIN 1920–6
(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to X.Hutchinson (D.Hill).
EPA-0.85
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
Air zonedeep right
TargetX.Hutchinson (inc)
PredictedPass 97%✓correct
Q4 0:45HOU2nd & 10 at CIN 1220–6
(Shotgun) C.Stroud sacked at CIN 19 for -7 yards (S.Stewart).
EPA-1.59
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.1%
PredictedPass 93%✓correct
Q4 0:51HOU1st & 10 at CIN 1220–6
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass incomplete short right to K.Boutte.
EPA-0.71
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.2%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetK.Boutte (inc)
PredictedPass 88%✓correct
Q4 1:01HOU3rd & 10 at CIN 4020–6
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short left to J.Wayne to CIN 25 for 15 yards (D.Turner).PENALTY on CIN-D.Turner, Face Mask, 13 yards, enforced at CIN 25.
EPA+3.43
WPA (home)+0.3%
Home WP0.4%
Yards15
Air zoneshort left
TargetJ.Wayne
PredictedPass 97%✓correct
Q4 1:07HOU2nd & 10 at CIN 4020–6
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to X.Hutchinson.
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
Air zonedeep right
TargetX.Hutchinson (inc)
PredictedPass 93%✓correct
Q4 1:08HOU1st & 10 at CIN 4020–6
(No Huddle) C.Stroud spiked the ball to stop the clock.
EPA-0.71
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
PredictedPass 88%✓correct
Q4 1:25HOU3rd & 5 at HOU 3520–6
(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Stroud pass deep middle to D.Schultz to CIN 40 for 25 yards (J.Battle).
EPA+2.94
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards25
Air zonedeep middle
TargetD.Schultz
PredictedPass 97%✓correct
Q4 1:43HOU2nd & 10 at HOU 3020–6
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short right to D.Schultz to HST 35 for 5 yards (D.Hill).
EPA-0.06
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards5
Air zoneshort right
TargetD.Schultz
PredictedPass 93%✓correct
Q4 1:44HOU1st & 10 at HOU 3020–6
(No Huddle) C.Stroud spiked the ball to stop the clock.
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
PredictedPass 88%✓correct
Q4 2:00HOU3rd & 3 at HOU 1920–6
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short right to D.Schultz to HST 30 for 11 yards (D.Hill; D.Knight).
EPA+7.46
WPA (home)-47.6%
Home WP0.1%
Yards11
Air zoneshort right
TargetD.Schultz
PredictedPass 87%✓correct
Q4 2:00HOU3rd & 3 at HOU 190–0
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)+47.7%
Home WP47.8%
Q4 2:06HOU2nd & 10 at HOU 1220–6
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short right to D.Schultz to HST 19 for 7 yards (D.Hill; D.Knight).
EPA+6.02
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards7
Air zoneshort right
TargetD.Schultz
PredictedPass 82%✓correct
Q4 2:10HOU1st & 10 at HOU 1220–6
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass incomplete short right to D.Schultz.
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetD.Schultz (inc)
PredictedPass 71%✓correct
Q4 2:16CIN4th & 8 at HOU 3920–6
R.Rehkow punts 27 yards to HST 12, Center-W.Wagner, fair catch by J.Noel.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 2:17CIN4th & 8 at HOU 3920–6
PENALTY on CIN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at HST 39 - No Play.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 2:17CIN4th & 9 at HOU 3920–6
Timeout #2 by CIN at 02:17.
WPA (home)-0.2%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 3:04CIN3rd & 12 at HOU 4320–6
J.Bayer reported in as eligible. C.Brown left guard to HST 39 for 4 yards (W.Anderson; A.Al-Shaair).
EPA+2.41
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP0.3%
Yards4
PredictedRun 51%✓correct
Q4 3:04CIN3rd & 13 at HOU 4320–6
Timeout #3 by HST at 03:04.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.2%
Q4 3:08CIN2nd & 12 at HOU 4320–6
C.Brown right tackle to HST 43 for no gain (W.Anderson; T.Togiai).
EPA+2.34
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP0.2%
Yards0
PredictedRun 78%✓correct
Q4 3:08CIN2nd & 13 at HOU 4320–6
Timeout #2 by HST at 03:08.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.2%
Q4 3:15CIN1st & 10 at HOU 4120–6
C.Brown up the middle to HST 43 for -2 yards (W.Anderson).
EPA+2.07
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP0.2%
Yards-2
PredictedRun 86%✓correct
Q4 3:20HOU4th & 1 at HOU 4120–6
(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to J.Wayne (J.Battle).
EPA-3.83
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
Air zoneshort middle
TargetJ.Wayne (inc)
PredictedPass 71%✓correct
Q4 3:40HOU3rd & 9 at HOU 3320–6
(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short middle to W.Marks to HST 41 for 8 yards (J.Battle).
EPA+0.17
WPA (home)-0.3%
Home WP0.2%
Yards8
Air zoneshort middle
TargetW.Marks
PredictedPass 94%✓correct
Q4 4:08HOU2nd & 1 at HOU 4120–6
(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Stroud sacked at HST 33 for -8 yards (J.Allen).
EPA-1.72
WPA (home)-1.3%
Home WP0.6%
PredictedPass 62%✓correct
Q4 4:24HOU1st & 5 at HOU 3720–6
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short right to D.Schultz to HST 41 for 4 yards (D.Knight).
EPA-0.07
WPA (home)+0.5%
Home WP1.9%
Yards4
Air zoneshort right
TargetD.Schultz
PredictedPass 71%✓correct
Q4 4:24HOU1st & 10 at HOU 3220–6
(No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on CIN-M.Murphy, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at HST 32 - No Play.
WPA (home)+0.2%
Home WP1.4%
Q4 4:44HOU2nd & 1 at HOU 3020–6
(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short right to D.Schultz to HST 32 for 2 yards (D.Turner).
EPA+0.36
WPA (home)-0.5%
Home WP1.2%
Yards2
Air zoneshort right
TargetD.Schultz
PredictedPass 62%✓correct

Box score

Team stats	CIN	HOU
Total yards	267	374
Yards / play	4.5	4.8
Turnovers	0	0
3rd down	5-15	5-17
Red zone	1-1	0-4
Possession	30:49	29:11

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
J.Burrow	20/31	207	2	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
C.Brown	20	80	4.0
S.Perine	2	6	3.0
J.Burrow	1	-1	-1.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
T.Higgins	5/10	95	0
J.Chase	7/9	75	2
S.Perine	1/1	16	0
A.Iosivas	1/1	7	0
C.Young	1/1	7	0

Defense	TKL	SACK
C.Johnson	4	2
D.Knight Jr.	12	0
D.Hill	10	0
J.Battle	8	0

Houston Texans

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
C.Stroud	30/55	353	0	0
K.Kroeger	0/1	0	0	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
C.Stroud	3	29	9.7
J.Noel	1	13	13.0
D.Montgomery	6	10	1.7
W.Marks	8	8	1.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS
D.Schultz	12/14	140
K.Boutte	3/5	37
X.Hutchinson	3/9	37
F.Moreau	2/2	34
J.Wayne	2/7	33

Defense	TKL	SACK
W.Anderson Jr.	8	1
A.Al-Shaair	12	0
S.Rankins	3	1
L.Hall	3	1

Model breakdown

Why the model likes HOU

Model vs. market

Matchup Lens

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Houston Texans