ATL @ GB

Falcons

1-2

Packers

1-2

Final

Pregame model pick

GB 71.7%

Missed

Low

Model spread: GB -8
Model total: 45.2
ATS pick: Pass; +0.3 pt edge
Total pick: Pass; -1.3 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

ATL spread+4.5

ATL ML+195

Over43.5

GB spread-4.5

GB ML-238

Under43.5

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% ATL win probability

GB aboveATL below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

touchdownQ2 0:59
(Shotgun) M.Penix pass short left to A.Hooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.
WPA -8.5%EPA +2.10
big playQ1 9:18
(Shotgun) J.Love pass deep right to M.Golden to ATL 43 for 45 yards (M.Hughes).
WPA +7.4%EPA +4.71
big playQ1 3:06
Bi.Robinson left end to GB 5 for 55 yards (Z.Franklin; D.Dennis-Sutton).
WPA -6.5%EPA +4.10
defenseQ2 3:47
T.Smack 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (Z.Harrison), Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.
WPA -6.5%
big playQ3 9:21
Bi.Robinson right end pushed ob at ATL 45 for 31 yards (J.Bullard).
WPA -6.3%EPA +2.62
defenseQ1 13:33
(Shotgun) M.Penix pass short middle intended for J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by X.McKinney at GB 40. X.McKinney to GB 45 for 5 yards (D.London).
WPA +5.5%EPA -4.60

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Highlight clips post during and after the game.

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
Jonnu Smith GB	Receiving Yards	O 8.5	16.8	71%	+18.6%	16Hit
Kyle Pitts Sr. ATL	Receiving Yards	U 36.5(-1.0 from open)	26.8	70%	+17.8%	5Hit
Kaleb Johnson GB	Carries	U 9.5	7.7	70%	+17.4%	4Hit
Kyle Pitts Sr. ATL	Receptions	U 3.5	2.5	68%	+15.5%	1Hit
Brian Robinson Jr. ATL	Carries	O 6.5(+1.0 from open)	7.7	65%	+13.1%	10Hit
Kaleb Johnson GB	Rushing Yards	U 37.5(+4.0 from open)	30.3	65%	+12.5%	6Hit
Brian Robinson Jr. ATL	Rushing Yards	O 24.5	30	64%	+11.9%	50Hit
Jordan Love GB	Carries	U 2.5	1.8	64%	+11.9%	1Hit
MarShawn Lloyd GB	Carries	O 6.5(-1.0 from open)	7.5	63%	+10.9%	4Miss
Chris Brooks GB	Carries	O 3.5(-1.0 from open)	4.2	62%	+9.8%	0Miss
Drake London ATL	Receptions	U 5.5(+1.0 from open)	4.7	62%	+9.7%	9Miss
Austin Hooper ATL	Receptions	O 0.5	0.8	62%	+9.4%	2Hit
Drake London ATL	Receiving Yards	U 68.5(+7.0 from open)	59	61%	+8.5%	194Miss
Tucker Kraft GB	Receptions	U 4.5(+1.0 from open)	3.8	61%	+8.4%	4Hit
Chris Brooks GB	Receptions	U 1.5	1.2	59%	+7.0%	1Hit
Matthew Golden GB	Receiving Yards	O 56.5(+4.0 from open)	63.2	59%	+6.9%	100Hit
Bijan Robinson ATL	Receiving Yards	O 37.5(-4.0 from open)	41.5	58%	+6.0%	19Miss
Christian Watson GB	Receiving Yards	O 72.5(+7.0 from open)	79.7	58%	+5.4%	96Hit
Jordan Love GB	Rushing Yards	U 8.5	5.7	57%	+5.1%	0Hit
Skyy Moore GB	Receiving Yards	U 11.5(+2.0 from open)	8.7	57%	+5.1%	31Miss
Bijan Robinson ATL	Receptions	O 4.5	4.8	55%	+3.0%	2Miss
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL	Receiving Yards	U 9.5	7.7	55%	+2.5%	9Hit
Chris Brooks GB	Rushing Yards	O 14.5(-3.0 from open)	16.3	55%	+2.5%	0Miss
Jordan Love GB	Passing TDs	O 1.5	1.7	55%	+2.3%	2Hit
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL	Receptions	U 1.5	1.3	55%	+2.3%	2Miss
MarShawn Lloyd GB	Receptions	U 1.5	1.3	55%	+2.3%	2Miss
Skyy Moore GB	Receptions	U 1.5	1.3	55%	+2.3%	3Miss
Tucker Kraft GB	Receiving Yards	U 46.5(+5.0 from open)	44.3	54%	+1.3%	26Hit
Chris Brooks GB	Rush + Rec Yards	O 23.5(-3.0 from open)	24.8	54%	+1.1%	4Miss
Jordan Love GB	Passing Yards	O 235.5(+3.0 from open)	245.7	53%	+1.0%	312Hit
Christian Watson GB	Anytime TD	Yes	1.5	53%	+0.9%	1Hit
Jonnu Smith GB	Receptions	O 1.5	1.6	53%	+0.4%	2Hit
Matthew Golden GB	Receptions	O 4.5	4.7	53%	+0.3%	5Hit
MarShawn Lloyd GB	Rushing Yards	O 25.5(-6.0 from open)	26.5	53%	+0.3%	11Miss
Jordan Love GB	Completions	U 19.5	19.2	53%	+0.2%	28Miss
Christian Watson GB	Receptions	U 5.5(+1.0 from open)	5.3	52%	+0.1%	7Miss
Jahan Dotson ATL	Receiving Yards	U 17.5(-1.0 from open)	16.7	52%	-0.2%	11Hit
MarShawn Lloyd GB	Rush + Rec Yards	U 33.5(-7.0 from open)	32.8	52%	-0.8%	18Hit
MarShawn Lloyd GB	Receiving Yards	U 4.5(-1.0 from open)	4	51%	-1.1%	7Miss
Bijan Robinson ATL	Rush + Rec Yards	O 122.5(-6.0 from open)	124	51%	-1.4%	213Hit
Chris Brooks GB	Receiving Yards	O 6.5(-1.0 from open)	6.8	51%	-1.5%	4Miss
Bijan Robinson ATL	Rushing Yards	U 79.5(-2.0 from open)	78.8	51%	-1.7%	194Miss
Bijan Robinson ATL	Carries	O 18.5	18.5	50%	-2.4%	29Hit
Jahan Dotson ATL	Receptions	O 1.5	1.5	50%	-2.4%	1Miss
MarShawn Lloyd GB	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Bijan Robinson ATL	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	2Hit
Austin Hooper ATL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	1Hit
Jonnu Smith GB	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Charlie Woerner ATL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Nick Muse ATL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Chris Brooks GB	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Jordan Love GB	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Brian Robinson Jr. ATL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Bo Melton GB	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Kyle Pitts Sr. ATL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Jahan Dotson ATL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Chris Blair ATL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Drake London ATL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Skyy Moore GB	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Tucker Kraft GB	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Matthew Golden GB	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Kaleb Johnson GB	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Zachariah Branch ATL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Atlanta Falcons

deep left62/6 · 84 yds

deep middle0—

deep right11/1 · 40 yds

short left98/9 · 65 yds

short middle42/4 · 36 yds

short right65/6 · 31 yds

Line of scrimmage

26 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Green Bay Packers

deep left41/4 · 34 yds

deep middle11/1 · 22 yds

deep right51/5 · 45 yds

short left107/10 · 74 yds

short middle116/11 · 54 yds

short right2212/22 · 83 yds

Line of scrimmage

53 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 97/128 (76%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00ATL35–14
END GAME
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.0%
Q4 0:38ATL2nd & 11 at ATL 1935–14
M.Penix kneels to ATL 18 for -1 yards.
EPA+0.20
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 88%✓correct
Q4 1:11ATL1st & 10 at ATL 2035–14
M.Penix kneels to ATL 19 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.84
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 93%✓correct
Q4 1:18GB2nd & Goal at ATL 10Turnover35–14
(Shotgun) J.Love pass short middle intended for J.Smith INTERCEPTED by X.Watts [B.Dorlus] at ATL 3. X.Watts to ATL 20 for 17 yards.
EPA-5.61
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards17
Air zoneshort middle
TargetJ.Smith (inc)
PredictedPass 96%✓correct
Q4 1:20GB1st & Goal at ATL 1035–14
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Love pass incomplete short middle to S.Moore (B.Bowman).
EPA-0.71
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
Air zoneshort middle
TargetS.Moore (inc)
PredictedPass 94%✓correct
Q4 1:28GB3rd & 10 at ATL 3035–14
(Shotgun) J.Love pass short left to M.Golden ran ob at ATL 10 for 20 yards (B.Bowman).
EPA+2.86
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards20
Air zoneshort left
TargetM.Golden
PredictedPass 97%✓correct
Q4 1:31GB2nd & 10 at ATL 3035–14
(Shotgun) J.Love pass incomplete short left.
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
PredictedPass 96%✓correct
Q4 1:37GB1st & 10 at ATL 3035–14
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Love pass incomplete deep left to B.Melton.
EPA-0.71
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
Air zonedeep left
TargetB.Melton (inc)
PredictedPass 94%✓correct
Q4 1:56GB4th & 6 at ATL 4035–14
(Shotgun) J.Love pass short right to J.Sturdivant to ATL 30 for 10 yards (M.Hughes).
EPA+2.76
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards10
Air zoneshort right
TargetJ.Sturdivant
PredictedPass 97%✓correct
Q4 2:00GB3rd & 6 at ATL 4035–14
(Shotgun) J.Love pass incomplete short right to M.Golden [C.Thomas].
EPA-0.85
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetM.Golden (inc)
PredictedPass 97%✓correct
Q4 2:00GB3rd & 6 at ATL 4035–14
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 2:10GB2nd & 10 at ATL 4435–14
(Shotgun) J.Love pass short right to C.Brooks to ATL 40 for 4 yards (H.Perkins). GB-J.Monk was injured during the play.
EPA+2.69
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards4
Air zoneshort right
TargetC.Brooks
PredictedPass 89%✓correct
Q4 2:15GB1st & 10 at ATL 4435–14
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Love pass incomplete short middle [B.Dorlus].
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
PredictedPass 83%✓correct
Q4 2:36GB3rd & 1 at GB 4135–14
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Love pass short middle to C.Watson to ATL 44 for 15 yards (C.Henderson) [M.Smith].
EPA+2.00
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards15
Air zoneshort middle
TargetC.Watson
PredictedPass 80%✓correct
Q4 3:02GB2nd & 6 at GB 3635–14
(Shotgun) J.Love pass short left to C.Watson pushed ob at GB 41 for 5 yards (C.Henderson).
EPA-0.06
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards5
Air zoneshort left
TargetC.Watson
PredictedPass 85%✓correct
Q4 3:07GB2nd & 1 at GB 4135–14
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Love pass incomplete short middle to K.Johnson (H.Perkins).PENALTY on GB, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at GB 41 - No Play.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Air zoneshort middle
TargetK.Johnson
Q4 3:26GB1st & 10 at GB 3235–14
(Shotgun) J.Love pass short right to J.Smith to GB 41 for 9 yards (J.Bates; H.Perkins).
EPA+0.43
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards9
Air zoneshort right
TargetJ.Smith
PredictedPass 82%✓correct
Q4 3:33ATL35–14
N.Folk kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to GB 0. S.Moore to GB 32 for 32 yards (N.Muse).
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 3:33ATL & Goal at ATL 3535–14
Official Timeout at 03:33.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 3:33ATL1st & Goal at GB 2Score35–14
C.Levin and M.Jerrell reported in as eligible. Bi.Robinson left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. M.Penix pass to C.Blair is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
EPA+0.52
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards2
PredictedRun 95%✓correct
Q4 3:35ATL1st & 2 at GB 227–14
Timeout #1 by GB at 03:35.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 3:39ATL2nd & 1 at GB 427–14
Bi.Robinson up the middle to GB 2 for 2 yards (D.Wyatt).
EPA+0.73
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards2
PredictedRun 91%✓correct
Q4 4:26ATL1st & 10 at GB 1327–14
(Shotgun) Bi.Robinson left guard to GB 4 for 9 yards (J.Bullard; I.McDuffie).
EPA+0.43
WPA (home)-0.2%
Home WP0.1%
Yards9
PredictedRun 87%✓correct
Q4 5:17ATL2nd & 8 at ATL 4727–14
(Shotgun) M.Penix pass deep right to D.London to GB 13 for 40 yards (E.Williams).
EPA+3.48
WPA (home)-2.0%
Home WP0.4%
Yards40
Air zonedeep right
TargetD.London
PredictedRun 61%×incorrect
Q4 6:01ATL1st & 10 at ATL 4527–14
(Shotgun) Br.Robinson left end to ATL 47 for 2 yards (Z.Franklin; D.Dennis-Sutton).
EPA-0.46
WPA (home)+0.4%
Home WP2.4%
Yards2
PredictedRun 73%✓correct
Q4 6:44ATL3rd & 2 at ATL 4127–14
Bi.Robinson left guard to ATL 45 for 4 yards (J.Hargrave).
EPA+1.26
WPA (home)-1.3%
Home WP1.9%
Yards4
PredictedRun 77%✓correct
Q4 7:28ATL2nd & 5 at ATL 3827–14
Bi.Robinson left tackle to ATL 41 for 3 yards (B.Sorrell; E.Williams).
EPA-0.32
WPA (home)-0.5%
Home WP3.3%
Yards3
PredictedRun 70%✓correct
Q4 8:11ATL1st & 10 at ATL 3327–14
Bi.Robinson right tackle to ATL 38 for 5 yards (K.Nixon; E.Williams).
EPA-0.08
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP3.8%
Yards5
PredictedRun 73%✓correct
Q4 8:18GB27–14
T.Smack kicks 62 yards from GB 35 to ATL 3. Br.Robinson to ATL 33 for 30 yards (C.Brooks).
WPA (home)-1.0%
Home WP3.8%
Q4 8:18GB & Goal at ATL 1527–14
Official Timeout at 08:18.
WPA (home)+0.2%
Home WP4.8%

Box score

Team stats	ATL	GB
Total yards	498	328
Yards / play	7.5	5.2
Turnovers	1	1
3rd down	6-10	6-15
Red zone	4-5	2-4
Possession	37:05	22:55

Atlanta Falcons

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
M.Penix Jr.	18/25	256	1	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
B.Robinson	29	194	6.7	2
B.Robinson Jr.	10	50	5.0	1
M.Penix Jr.	2	-2	-1.0	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
D.London	9/10	194	0
B.Robinson	2/2	19	0
A.Hooper	2/2	11	1
J.Dotson	1/3	11	0
O.Zaccheaus	2/2	9	0

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
X.Watts	5	0	1
C.Henderson	8	0	0
M.Hughes	7	0	0
C.Thomas	2	1	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
J.Love	28/53	312	2	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
M.Lloyd	4	11	2.8
K.Johnson	4	6	1.5
J.Love	1	0	0.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
M.Golden	5/12	100	1
C.Watson	7/10	96	1
S.Moore	3/7	31	0
T.Kraft	4/8	26	0
J.Sturdivant	3/3	22	0

Defense	TKL	INT
X.McKinney	5	1
E.Williams	10	0
Z.Franklin	10	0
B.Cisse	7	0

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Green Bay Packers