MIN @ TB

Vikings

3-0

Buccaneers

0-3

Final

Pregame model pick

MIN 54.5%

Correct · ATS win

Low

Model spread: TB +1.5
Model total: 43.7
ATS pick: MIN +1.5; -3.0 pt edge
Total pick: Pass; +0.2 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

MIN spread+1.5

MIN ML-105

Over42.5

TB spread-1.5

TB ML-115

Under42.5

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% MIN win probability

TB aboveMIN below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

touchdownQ2 4:11
Jordan Addison 41 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Will Reichard Kick)
WPA -15.3%EPA +4.86
clutchQ4 10:49
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to E.Egbuka to TB 46 for 10 yards (J.Metellus; B.Murphy).PENALTY on MIN-J.Metellus, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 46.
WPA +14.0%EPA +4.26
touchdownQ1 8:43
R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 14, Center-E.Deckers. M.Price for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.PENALTY on MIN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-J.Hekker.
WPA -13.2%
clutchQ4 3:10
W.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-J.Hekker.
WPA -12.5%
clutchQ4 6:08
(Shotgun) A.Jones up the middle to TB 32 for 3 yards (K.Scott).
WPA -11.5%EPA +1.99
defenseQ3 8:41
(Shotgun) K.Murray pass short middle intended for J.Addison INTERCEPTED by A.Robinson (V.Vea) at MIN 22. A.Robinson to MIN 22 for no gain (B.Brandel).
WPA +9.7%EPA -4.78

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Recaps
Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Game Highlights
Touchdowns
Myles Price returns punt 86 yards for a Vikings TD
Touchdowns
Baker Mayfield zips a 40-yard TD pass
Touchdowns
Kyler Murray throws a 41-yard touchdown pass to Jordan Addison

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
Kyler Murray MIN	Completions	U 19.5	16.2	74%	+21.8%	15Hit
Bucky Irving TB	Receptions	O 2.5	3.5	71%	+18.5%	2Miss
Jordan Addison MIN	Receiving Yards	U 36.5(+4.0 from open)	27.8	68%	+15.9%	90Miss
Jordan Addison MIN	Receptions	U 3.5(+1.0 from open)	2.7	65%	+12.7%	5Miss
Kyler Murray MIN	Passing Yards	U 212.5(+9.0 from open)	173.6	64%	+11.9%	168Hit
Aaron Jones Sr. MIN	Receptions	U 1.5(-1.0 from open)	1	64%	+11.5%	5Miss
Kenny Gainwell TB	Rush + Rec Yards	U 31.5(-2.0 from open)	26.5	62%	+10.1%	10Hit
Aaron Jones Sr. MIN	Carries	O 13.5(-1.0 from open)	14.8	62%	+10.0%	17Hit
Aaron Jones Sr. MIN	Receiving Yards	U 12.5	8.3	61%	+8.5%	34Miss
Josh Oliver MIN	Receiving Yards	O 10.5	14.7	61%	+8.5%	0Miss
Aaron Jones Sr. MIN	Rushing Yards	O 51.5(-17.0 from open)	58.5	61%	+8.3%	58Hit
Baker Mayfield TB	Rushing Yards	O 18.5	22.2	60%	+7.3%	6Miss
Baker Mayfield TB	Passing TDs	U 1.5	1.2	59%	+7.0%	1Hit
Kyler Murray MIN	Passing TDs	U 1.5	1.2	58%	+6.0%	1Hit
Jauan Jennings MIN	Receptions	U 1.5	1.2	58%	+6.0%	1Hit
Jauan Jennings MIN	Receiving Yards	U 14.5(+1.0 from open)	11.6	58%	+5.3%	1Hit
Bucky Irving TB	Receiving Yards	O 16.5(+1.0 from open)	19.2	57%	+4.7%	12Miss
Baker Mayfield TB	Completions	O 19.5	20.3	57%	+4.1%	17Miss
Kyler Murray MIN	Rushing Yards	U 20.5(-1.0 from open)	18.2	56%	+3.7%	17Hit
Bucky Irving TB	Carries	U 14.5(-1.0 from open)	13.8	56%	+3.7%	15Miss
Emeka Egbuka TB	Receiving Yards	U 50.5(+3.0 from open)	46.8	56%	+3.4%	62Miss
Kenny Gainwell TB	Rushing Yards	U 18.5	16.5	55%	+2.9%	-4Hit
Ted Hurst III TB	Receiving Yards	O 25.5(+5.0 from open)	27.5	55%	+2.9%	40Hit
Kenny Gainwell TB	Receiving Yards	U 9.5(-1.0 from open)	7.7	55%	+2.5%	14Miss
Chris Godwin Jr. TB	Receiving Yards	O 36.5(+3.0 from open)	38.7	55%	+2.3%	25Miss
Kenny Gainwell TB	Receptions	O 1.5	1.7	55%	+2.3%	2Hit
Bucky Irving TB	Rush + Rec Yards	O 79.5(+4.0 from open)	83.5	54%	+1.6%	58Miss
Bucky Irving TB	Rushing Yards	O 58.5(+5.0 from open)	61.3	54%	+1.5%	46Miss
Cade Otton TB	Receiving Yards	O 28.5(+1.0 from open)	29.7	53%	+0.7%	56Hit
Cade Otton TB	Receptions	O 3.5(+1.0 from open)	3.7	53%	+0.7%	3Miss
Emeka Egbuka TB	Receptions	U 4.5	4.3	53%	+0.3%	5Miss
Baker Mayfield TB	Passing Yards	U 218.5(+1.0 from open)	212	52%	0.0%	217Hit
T.J. Hockenson MIN	Receiving Yards	O 30.5(+2.0 from open)	31.2	52%	-0.7%	11Miss
Aaron Jones Sr. MIN	Rush + Rec Yards	O 69.5(-1.0 from open)	70.5	51%	-1.3%	92Hit
Justin Jefferson MIN	Receiving Yards	U 74.5(+5.0 from open)	74.2	50%	-2.0%	32Hit
Chris Godwin Jr. TB	Receptions	O 3.5	3.5	50%	-2.4%	3Miss
Josh Oliver MIN	Receptions	O 1.5	1.5	50%	-2.4%	0Miss
T.J. Hockenson MIN	Receptions	O 3.5	3.5	50%	-2.4%	2Miss
Justin Jefferson MIN	Receptions	O 5.5	5.5	50%	-2.4%	2Miss
Ted Hurst III TB	Receptions	O 2.5	2.5	50%	-2.4%	1Miss
Aaron Jones Sr. MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Baker Mayfield TB	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
T.J. Hockenson MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Justin Jefferson MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	1	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Emeka Egbuka TB	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Bucky Irving TB	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Jauan Jennings MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Kyler Murray MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Demond Claiborne MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Bauer Sharp TB	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Chris Godwin Jr. TB	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Josh Oliver MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
DeeJay Dallas MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Cade Otton TB	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Kenny Gainwell TB	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Jordan Addison MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Myles Price MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Tez Johnson TB	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Kameron Johnson TB	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Ted Hurst III TB	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Minnesota Vikings

deep left41/4 · 30 yds

deep middle21/2 · 22 yds

deep right10/1 · 0 yds

short left65/6 · 6 yds

short middle52/5 · 15 yds

short right85/8 · 34 yds

Line of scrimmage

26 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

deep left10/1 · 0 yds

deep middle31/3 · 40 yds

deep right40/4 · 0 yds

short left118/11 · 59 yds

short middle63/6 · 40 yds

short right145/14 · 78 yds

Line of scrimmage

39 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 80/120 (67%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00MIN23–16
END GAME
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.0%
Q4 0:08TB4th & 1 at TB 40Turnover23–16
(Shotgun) J.Daniels pass deep right intended for T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by I.Rodgers at MIN 3. I.Rodgers to MIN 3 for no gain (T.Hurst).
EPA-0.31
WPA (home)-0.6%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
Air zonedeep right
TargetT.Hurst (inc)
PredictedPass 84%✓correct
Q4 0:14TB3rd & 1 at TB 4023–16
(Shotgun) J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to K.Gainwell.
EPA-0.85
WPA (home)-1.9%
Home WP0.7%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetK.Gainwell (inc)
PredictedPass 81%✓correct
Q4 0:21TB2nd & 10 at TB 3123–16
(Shotgun) J.Daniels scrambles left end ran ob at TB 41 for 10 yards (E.Wilson).The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) J.Daniels scrambles left end ran ob at TB 40 for 9 yards (E.Wilson).
EPA+0.44
WPA (home)+1.7%
Home WP2.6%
Yards9
PredictedPass 90%×incorrect
Q4 0:28TB1st & 10 at TB 3123–16
(Shotgun) J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to T.Hurst.
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)-0.4%
Home WP1.0%
Yards0
Air zonedeep right
TargetT.Hurst (inc)
PredictedPass 84%✓correct
Q4 0:33MIN23–16
W.Reichard kicks 66 yards from MIN 35 to TB -1. K.Gainwell ran ob at TB 31 for 32 yards (C.Chambliss).
WPA (home)+0.8%
Home WP1.3%
Q4 0:33MIN4th & 6 at TB 25Score23–16
W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-J.Hekker.
WPA (home)-1.3%
Home WP0.5%
Q4 0:37MIN4th & 6 at TB 2520–16
Timeout #1 by MIN at 00:37.
WPA (home)-4.0%
Home WP1.8%
Q4 1:22MIN3rd & 7 at TB 2620–16
A.Jones left guard to TB 25 for 1 yard (S.Dennis; A.Robinson).
EPA+1.08
WPA (home)+2.9%
Home WP5.8%
Yards1
PredictedPass 82%×incorrect
Q4 1:22MIN3rd & 7 at TB 2620–16
Timeout #3 by TB at 01:22.
WPA (home)-1.2%
Home WP2.9%
Q4 1:28MIN2nd & 8 at TB 2720–16
A.Jones up the middle to TB 26 for 1 yard (E.Simmons).
EPA+1.30
WPA (home)+1.1%
Home WP4.1%
Yards1
PredictedPass 56%×incorrect
Q4 1:28MIN2nd & 8 at TB 2720–16
Timeout #2 by TB at 01:28.
WPA (home)-1.3%
Home WP3.0%
Q4 1:32MIN1st & 10 at TB 2920–16
D.Dallas up the middle to TB 27 for 2 yards (S.Dennis; A.Winfield).
EPA+1.48
WPA (home)+2.6%
Home WP4.3%
Yards2
PredictedRun 58%✓correct
Q4 1:32MIN1st & 10 at TB 2920–16
Timeout #1 by TB at 01:32.
WPA (home)-1.6%
Home WP1.7%
Q4 1:39MIN1st & 10 at TB 4120–16
K.Murray pass short right to A.Jones to TB 29 for 12 yards (T.Smith).
EPA+2.95
WPA (home)-1.3%
Home WP3.4%
Yards12
Air zoneshort right
TargetA.Jones
PredictedRun 58%×incorrect
Q4 1:54TB4th & 13 at TB 39Turnover20–16
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right intended for K.Gainwell INTERCEPTED by A.Van Ginkel [B.Cashman] at TB 41. A.Van Ginkel to TB 41 for no gain (K.Gainwell). TB-B.Mayfield was injured during the play.
EPA-3.03
WPA (home)-7.9%
Home WP4.6%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetK.Gainwell (inc)
PredictedPass 97%✓correct
Q4 2:00TB3rd & 13 at TB 3920–16
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to E.Egbuka.
EPA-0.85
WPA (home)-3.7%
Home WP12.5%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetE.Egbuka (inc)
PredictedPass 90%✓correct
Q4 2:00TB3rd & 13 at TB 3920–16
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)-1.7%
Home WP16.2%
Q4 2:25TB2nd & 14 at TB 3820–16
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short left to K.Gainwell to TB 39 for 1 yard (I.Rodgers; A.Van Ginkel).
EPA+3.82
WPA (home)-3.1%
Home WP17.9%
Yards1
Air zoneshort left
TargetK.Gainwell
PredictedPass 71%✓correct
Q4 2:58TB1st & 10 at TB 4220–16
K.Gainwell right end to TB 38 for -4 yards (K.Van Noy).
EPA-1.22
WPA (home)-9.1%
Home WP21.1%
Yards-4
PredictedPass 58%×incorrect
Q4 3:05TB1st & 10 at TB 2920–16
B.Mayfield pass short left to K.Gainwell ran ob at TB 42 for 13 yards (B.Cashman).
EPA+0.94
WPA (home)+4.4%
Home WP30.1%
Yards13
Air zoneshort left
TargetK.Gainwell
PredictedPass 58%✓correct
Q4 3:10MIN20–16
W.Reichard kicks 59 yards from MIN 35 to TB 6. K.Gainwell pushed ob at TB 29 for 23 yards (J.Pierre).
WPA (home)+2.2%
Home WP25.8%
Q4 3:10MIN & Goal at MIN 3520–16
Official Timeout at 03:10.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP23.5%
Q4 3:10MIN4th & 16 at TB 38Score20–16
W.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-J.Hekker.
WPA (home)-12.5%
Home WP23.5%
Q4 3:52MIN3rd & 27 at TB 4917–16
(Shotgun) K.Murray pass short middle to A.Jones to TB 38 for 11 yards (C.Rozeboom).
EPA+2.48
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP36.1%
Yards11
Air zoneshort middle
TargetA.Jones
PredictedPass 65%✓correct
Q4 3:58MIN3rd & 22 at TB 4417–16
(Shotgun) K.Murray pass short left to J.Addison to TB 35 for 9 yards (Y.Diaby).PENALTY on MIN-D.Jackson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 39.
EPA-0.63
WPA (home)+0.7%
Home WP36.0%
Yards-15
Air zoneshort left
TargetJ.Addison
PredictedPass 65%✓correct
Q4 4:02MIN3rd & 13 at TB 3517–16
(Shotgun) K.Murray pass incomplete short middle to A.Jones (E.Roberts).PENALTY on MIN-W.Fries, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at TB 35 - No Play.
WPA (home)+4.3%
Home WP35.3%
Air zoneshort middle
TargetA.Jones
Q4 4:49MIN2nd & 15 at TB 3717–16
(Shotgun) K.Murray pass short right to A.Jones to TB 35 for 2 yards (A.Winfield).
EPA-0.45
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP31.0%
Yards2
Air zoneshort right
TargetA.Jones
PredictedRun 65%×incorrect
Q4 5:24MIN1st & 10 at TB 3217–16
K.Murray sacked at TB 37 for -5 yards (A.Nelson).
EPA-1.35
WPA (home)+7.0%
Home WP31.0%
PredictedRun 58%×incorrect
Q4 6:08MIN4th & 1 at TB 3517–16
(Shotgun) A.Jones up the middle to TB 32 for 3 yards (K.Scott).
EPA+1.99
WPA (home)-11.5%
Home WP24.1%
Yards3
PredictedRun 58%✓correct

Box score

Team stats	MIN	TB
Total yards	230	243
Yards / play	4.2	3.8
Turnovers	1	2
3rd down	2-15	2-17
Red zone	0-0	0-2
Possession	29:03	30:57

Minnesota Vikings

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
K.Murray	15/29	168	1	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
A.Jones Sr.	17	58	3.4
K.Murray	2	17	8.5
D.Dallas	1	2	2.0
D.Claiborne	3	1	0.3

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
J.Addison	5/9	90	1
A.Jones Sr.	5/6	34	0
J.Jefferson	2/2	32	0
T.Hockenson	2/4	11	0
J.Jennings	1/2	1	0

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
E.Wilson	10	1.5	0
B.Cashman	8	1	0
K.Van Noy	5	1.5	0
I.Rodgers	6	0	1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
B.Mayfield	17/34	217	1	1
J.Daniels	0/3	0	0	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
B.Irving	15	46	3.1
J.Daniels	1	9	9.0
B.Mayfield	2	6	3.0
K.Gainwell	3	-4	-1.3

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
E.Egbuka	5/9	62	0
C.Otton	3/6	56	0
T.Hurst III	1/4	40	1
C.Godwin Jr.	3/4	25	0
K.Gainwell	2/5	14	0

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
A.Anzalone	5	1	0
A.Robinson	3	0	1
D.Walker	3	1	0
A.Nelson	1	1	0

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers