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WR · #18

Justin Jefferson

Minnesota Vikings
Position
Wide Receiver
Height / Weight
6' 1", 195 lbs
Born
16/6/1999 in Saint Rose, LA
Age
27
College
LSU
Draft
2020: Rd 1, Pk 22 (MIN)
Experience
7th Season
Status
Active

Why he's performing this way

The usage, efficiency, schedule and team factors behind his recent numbers.

Trending down

Justin Jefferson has cooled off. He's at 5.2 fantasy pts / game (PPR) over his last game, down from 18.9.

Recent
5.2
Season
14.3

fantasy pts / game (PPR)

  • Shrinking role

    He's averaging 2.0 targets over his last game, compared with 7.5 before that. Fewer chances cap his ceiling no matter how efficient he is.

  • Focal point of the passing game

    He draws 25% of MIN's targets. Target shares this high are sticky and give him a steady floor every week.

  • Efficient with his chances

    10.5 yards per target on the season (the typical WR is at 8.4), and 16.0 over his last game. He is turning volume into yards better than most at his position.

  • Tough recent schedule

    Opponents in his last game (TB) give up less EPA per play than the league average. He has been producing against strong opponents, so the numbers are probably underselling him.

  • Struggling offense around him

    MIN are averaging -0.17 EPA per play on offense. Stalled drives and fewer red-zone trips limit what he can produce.

Play style & archetype

Compares 2026 play-by-play and box score data against 54 qualified WRs across 3 games.

Archetype

Big-slot / middle-of-field weapon

with red-zone specialist traits

Works the seams and the middle of the field, where he beats zone coverage and gains yards after the catch.

EPA / target of 1.32 ranks in the top 4% of qualified WRs.

Catch rate of 76.5% ranks in the top 10% of qualified WRs.

He does a lot of his work between the numbers (middle-of-field rate 29.4%, top 15% of WRs).

Yards / target of 10.5 ranks in the top 19% of qualified WRs.

He also shows traits of a red-zone specialist.

7 NFL seasons and 8,659 career receiving yards. Best year: 1,809 in 2022.

Strengths

  • EPA / target (1.32)
  • Catch rate (76.5%)
  • Yards / target (10.5)

Areas to watch

Nothing stands out.

Percentile vs. WRs

  • Targets / gamestyle5.7 · 26
  • Target sharestyle20.2% · 55
  • Deep target ratestyle35.3% · 73
  • Middle-of-field ratestyle29.4% · 85
  • Catch rate76.5% · 90
  • Yards / reception13.8 · 62
  • Yards / target10.5 · 81
  • Red-zone target ratestyle17.6% · 69
  • EPA / target1.32 · 96

Colored bars are quality measures. Gray "style" bars show how often he does something, not whether it's good.

Where he's targeted

29%

left

29%

middle

41%

right

35% of targets deep (15+ air yards), 65% short

Career statistics

Regular season, by year and team. Career bests are highlighted.

Passing

SeasonTeamGPCMPATTCMP%YDSAVGTDINTLNGSACKRTGQBR
2020MIN16000.000.0000039.6-
2021MIN172450.0358.80024080.248.7
2022MIN1722100.03417.000230118.895.2
2023MIN10010.000.0000039.614.6
2024MIN1711100.02222.000220118.823.7
2025MIN17000.000.0000039.6-
2026MIN3000.000.0000039.6-
Career975862.59111.400240101.6-

Rushing

SeasonTeamGPCARYDSAVGTDLNGFDFUMLST
2020MIN16122.002000
2021MIN176142.3011100
2022MIN174246.0110200
2023MIN101-12-12.00-12000
2024MIN17133.003000
2025MIN17273.504000
Career9715382.5111300

Receiving

SeasonTeamGPRECTGTSYDSAVGTDLNGFDFUMLST
2020MIN16881251,40015.97715810
2021MIN171081671,61615.010567511
2022MIN171281841,80914.18648000
2023MIN10681001,07415.85525111
2024MIN171031541,53314.910976210
2025MIN17841411,04812.52504700
2026MIN3131717913.8239800
Career975928888,65914.6449738142

Defense

SeasonTeamGPTOTSOLOASTSACKFFFRYDSINTYDSAVGTDLNGPDSTFSTFYDSKB
2020MIN161100000000.0000000
2022MIN172200000000.0000000
2023MIN102200000000.0000000
2024MIN171100000000.0000000
2025MIN172110000000.0000000
Career978710000000.0000000

Scoring

SeasonTeamGPPASSRUSHRECRETTD2PTPATFGPTS
2020MIN160070720046
2021MIN17001001000060
2022MIN170180910056
2023MIN100050500030
2024MIN17001001000060
2025MIN170020200012
2026MIN30020210014
Career970144045400278

2026 game log

Box score lines from completed games this season.

WkOppC/AttPass YdsPass TDINTCarRush YdsRush TDTgtRecRec YdsRec TDPPR
1vs GB———————9892229.2
2@ CHI———————635508.5
3@ TB———————223205.2