gameLens

Packers

0-1

22

Vikings

1-0

39

Final

Final · Game report

Minnesota Vikings rally past GB, 39-22

Minnesota Vikings were down to a 8% win probability at their low point and still came back to win by 17.

Play for play, MIN had the more efficient offense: -0.21 EPA per play for MIN versus -0.33 for GB.

GameLens picked GB at 52% before kickoff, and this is one the model missed.

Play of the game · Q4 5:01 · 19% win-prob swing

(Shotgun) J.Love sacked at GB 11 for -12 yards (sack split by A.Van Ginkel and B.Cashman). FUMBLES (A.Van Ginkel) [B.Cashman], RECOVERED by MIN-A.Van Ginkel at GB 8. A.Van Ginkel to GB 1 for 7 yards (Z.Bako-Bewele).

How it was won

  • Turnover battle: MIN won it 2-1, and that margin mattered in a 17-point game.
  • Red zone: MIN finished drives (4-4) while GB stalled (1-4).
  • Third downs: MIN converted 8-15, which kept drives alive and the other offense off the field.
  • GB outgained MIN by 180 yards and still lost. Yardage without points doesn't win games.
Team stat comparison
GBStatMIN
-0.33EPA / play-0.21
40%Success rate40%
419Total yards239
6.3Yards / play3.9
2Turnovers1
3-123rd down8-15
1-4Red zone4-4
27:02Possession32:58

Standouts

Pregame model pick

GB 52.1%

Missed

Low
Model spread
MIN +0.5
Model total
44.6
ATS pick
Pass
+0.8 pt edge
Total pick
Pass
+0.1 pt edge
Market · DraftKings
GB spread+2.5
GB ML+120
Over46.5
MIN spread-2.5
MIN ML-142
Under46.5

Model breakdown

Why the model likes GB

The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.

  • Market priorhelps GB+1.1 pts · +3.3%

    Opening line GB -1.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 0 games

  • Home fieldhurts GB-0.4 pts · -1.3%

    MIN at home (1.7 pts)

Model vs. market

GB win probability

GameLens
52%
Market
44%
Difference
+8%

Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.

Matchup Lens

The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.

Matchup edges appear once both teams have played.

Momentum tracker

0–100 score for who controls the game right now, weighted toward the most recent plays by EPA.

Final momentum

36/100MIN · Edge

Last 60 plays
GBMIN

Recent swing plays

  • +64Q4 1:31(Shotgun) J.Love pass incomplete short middle to S.Moore.
  • -58Q4 2:13(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Love pass short middle to J.Smith to MIN 20 for 7 yards (H.Smith).
  • -23Q4 0:50C.Wentz kneels to MIN 14 for -1 yards.

Positive values push momentum toward MIN.

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

Win probability

100.0% MIN win probability

MIN aboveGB below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

Key moments

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Highlights

Highlight clips post during and after the game.

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player props

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Target maps

Green Bay Packers
deep left42/4 · 62 yds10% of targets
deep middle32/3 · 123 yds8% of targets
deep right42/4 · 63 yds10% of targets
short left106/10 · 66 yds25% of targets
short middle94/9 · 37 yds23% of targets
short right105/10 · 36 yds25% of targets
Line of scrimmage

40 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Minnesota Vikings
deep left11/1 · 39 yds4% of targets
deep middle11/1 · 16 yds4% of targets
deep right30/3 · 0 yds12% of targets
short left42/4 · 15 yds16% of targets
short middle74/7 · 39 yds28% of targets
short right97/9 · 42 yds36% of targets
Line of scrimmage

25 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-by-play

Play-call model: 86/129 (67%) run/pass correct

  1. Q4 0:00MIN22–39

    END GAME

    WPA (home)+0.1%
    Home WP100.0%
  2. Q4 0:33MIN3rd & 8 at MIN 1422–39

    C.Wentz kneels to MIN 13 for -1 yards.

    EPA+1.10
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP99.9%
    Yards-1
    PredictedRun 57%✓correct
  3. Q4 0:50MIN2nd & 7 at MIN 1522–39

    C.Wentz kneels to MIN 14 for -1 yards.

    EPA-0.83
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP99.9%
    Yards-1
    PredictedRun 82%✓correct
  4. Q4 1:28MIN1st & 10 at MIN 1222–39

    J.Mason right tackle to MIN 15 for 3 yards (B.Cox).

    EPA-0.33
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP99.9%
    Yards3
    PredictedRun 89%✓correct
  5. Q4 1:31GB4th & 2 at MIN 1222–39

    (Shotgun) J.Love pass incomplete short middle to S.Moore.

    EPA-3.78
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP99.9%
    Yards0
    Air zoneshort middle
    TargetS.Moore (inc)
    PredictedPass 91%✓correct
  6. Q4 1:35GB3rd & 2 at MIN 1222–39

    (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Love pass incomplete short middle to M.Golden.

    EPA-0.85
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP99.9%
    Yards0
    Air zoneshort middle
    TargetM.Golden (inc)
    PredictedPass 89%✓correct
  7. Q4 1:55GB2nd & 10 at MIN 2022–39

    (Shotgun) J.Love pass short right to M.Golden to MIN 12 for 8 yards (J.Metellus).

    EPA+0.32
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP99.9%
    Yards8
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetM.Golden
    PredictedPass 94%✓correct
  8. Q4 2:00GB1st & 10 at MIN 2022–39

    (Shotgun) J.Love pass incomplete deep left to M.Lloyd (J.Pierre) [D.Turner].

    EPA-0.71
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP99.9%
    Yards0
    Air zonedeep left
    TargetM.Lloyd (inc)
    PredictedPass 76%✓correct
  9. Q4 2:00GB1st & 10 at MIN 2022–39

    Two-Minute Warning

    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP99.9%
  10. Q4 2:13GB3rd & 3 at MIN 2722–39

    (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Love pass short middle to J.Smith to MIN 20 for 7 yards (H.Smith).

    EPA+2.97
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP99.9%
    Yards7
    Air zoneshort middle
    TargetJ.Smith
    PredictedPass 89%✓correct
  11. Q4 2:35GB2nd & 10 at MIN 3422–39

    (Shotgun) J.Love pass short middle to J.Reed to MIN 27 for 7 yards (J.Pierre).

    EPA+0.19
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP99.9%
    Yards7
    Air zoneshort middle
    TargetJ.Reed
    PredictedPass 85%✓correct
  12. Q4 2:38GB1st & 10 at MIN 3422–39

    (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Love pass incomplete short right to J.Reed.

    EPA-0.72
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP99.9%
    Yards0
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetJ.Reed (inc)
    PredictedPass 76%✓correct
  13. Q4 3:09GB2nd & 15 at GB 4622–39

    (Shotgun) J.Love pass deep right to M.Golden to MIN 34 for 20 yards (J.Pierre) [D.Turner].

    EPA+2.43
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP99.9%
    Yards20
    Air zonedeep right
    TargetM.Golden
    PredictedPass 85%✓correct
  14. Q4 3:30GB1st & 10 at MIN 4922–39

    (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Love sacked at GB 46 for -5 yards (A.Van Ginkel). The player down by contact was assisted by replay.

    EPA-1.35
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP99.9%
    PredictedPass 76%✓correct
  15. Q4 3:52GB2nd & 10 at GB 3522–39

    (Shotgun) J.Love pass short middle to C.Watson to MIN 49 for 16 yards (J.Metellus).

    EPA+1.87
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP99.9%
    Yards16
    Air zoneshort middle
    TargetC.Watson
    PredictedPass 85%✓correct
  16. Q4 3:55GB1st & 10 at GB 3522–39

    (Shotgun) J.Love pass incomplete short left to M.Golden.

    EPA-0.72
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP99.9%
    Yards0
    Air zoneshort left
    TargetM.Golden (inc)
    PredictedPass 76%✓correct
  17. Q4 3:55MIN22–39

    W.Reichard kicks 65 yards from MIN 35 to end zone, Touchback to the GB 35.

    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP99.9%
  18. Q4 3:55MIN3rd & 5 at GB 9Score22–39

    C.Wentz pass short right to J.Jefferson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.

    EPA+2.39
    WPA (home)+0.9%
    Home WP99.9%
    Yards9
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetJ.Jefferson
    PredictedRun 55%×incorrect
  19. Q4 4:03MIN3rd & 5 at GB 922–32

    Timeout #2 by GB at 04:03.

    WPA (home)+0.1%
    Home WP99.0%
  20. Q4 4:09MIN2nd & 8 at GB 1222–32

    J.Mason left end to GB 9 for 3 yards (K.Brooks; E.Williams).

    EPA+0.33
    WPA (home)-0.1%
    Home WP98.9%
    Yards3
    PredictedRun 73%✓correct
  21. Q4 4:09MIN2nd & 8 at GB 1222–32

    Timeout #1 by GB at 04:09.

    WPA (home)+0.1%
    Home WP99.0%
  22. Q4 4:13MIN1st & 10 at GB 1422–32

    A.Jones up the middle to GB 12 for 2 yards (X.McKinney).

    EPA+0.40
    WPA (home)-0.6%
    Home WP98.9%
    Yards2
    PredictedRun 83%✓correct
  23. Q4 4:21GB2nd & 3 at GB 32Turnover22–32

    (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Love pass short middle intended for C.Watson INTERCEPTED by J.Pierre (H.Smith) at GB 42. J.Pierre pushed ob at GB 14 for 28 yards (J.Love).

    EPA-6.57
    WPA (home)+4.5%
    Home WP99.4%
    Yards28
    Air zoneshort middle
    TargetC.Watson (inc)
    PredictedPass 56%✓correct
  24. Q4 4:44GB1st & 10 at GB 2522–32

    (Shotgun) J.Love pass short middle to J.Reed to GB 32 for 7 yards (J.Pierre).

    EPA+0.17
    WPA (home)-1.3%
    Home WP95.0%
    Yards7
    Air zoneshort middle
    TargetJ.Reed
    PredictedPass 66%✓correct
  25. Q4 4:48MIN22–32

    W.Reichard kicks 59 yards from MIN 35 to GB 6. B.Melton to GB 25 for 19 yards (Jac.Thomas). ** Injury Update: GB-B.Melton has returned to the game.

    WPA (home)-0.1%
    Home WP96.2%
  26. Q4 4:48MIN1st & Goal at GB 1Score22–32

    J.Mason right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on GB-B.Sorrell, Defensive Offside, declined. W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.

    EPA+0.42
    WPA (home)+4.7%
    Home WP96.3%
    Yards1
    PredictedRun 89%✓correct
  27. Q4 5:01GB3rd & 17 at GB 23Turnover22–25

    (Shotgun) J.Love sacked at GB 11 for -12 yards (sack split by A.Van Ginkel and B.Cashman). FUMBLES (A.Van Ginkel) [B.Cashman], RECOVERED by MIN-A.Van Ginkel at GB 8. A.Van Ginkel to GB 1 for 7 yards (Z.Bako-Bewele).

    EPA-5.63
    WPA (home)+19.1%
    Home WP91.5%
    PredictedPass 88%✓correct
  28. Q4 5:52GB2nd & 13 at GB 2722–25

    (Shotgun) J.Love sacked at GB 18 for -9 yards (D.Turner). FUMBLES (D.Turner) [D.Turner], recovered by GB-Z.Bako-Bewele at GB 16. Z.Bako-Bewele to GB 23 for 7 yards (D.Orange).

    EPA-1.21
    WPA (home)+5.2%
    Home WP72.4%
    PredictedPass 68%✓correct
  29. Q4 6:33GB1st & 10 at GB 3022–25

    M.Lloyd up the middle to GB 27 for -3 yards (B.Cashman, T.Ingram-Dawkins).

    EPA-1.10
    WPA (home)+5.7%
    Home WP67.2%
    Yards-3
    PredictedPass 55%×incorrect
  30. Q4 6:37MIN22–25

    W.Reichard kicks 62 yards from MIN 35 to GB 3. K.Johnson to GB 30 for 27 yards (I.Pace).

    WPA (home)-2.0%
    Home WP61.5%

Box score

Box score

Team statsGBMIN
Total yards419239
Yards / play6.33.9
Turnovers21
3rd down3-128-15
Red zone1-44-4
Possession27:0232:58

Green Bay Packers

PassingC/ATTYDSTDINT
J.Love21/4238721
RushingCARYDSYPCTD
M.Lloyd13372.80
C.Brooks7294.10
J.Love100.00
ReceivingREC/TGTYDSTD
C.Watson6/81472
M.Golden6/12950
T.Kraft3/6650
J.Smith2/3500
J.Reed3/7200
DefenseTKLSACKINT
K.Nixon50.51
E.Cooper710
L.Van Ness410
E.Williams700

Minnesota Vikings

PassingC/ATTYDSTDINT
C.Wentz12/1913330
K.Murray3/51801
RushingCARYDSYPCTD
J.Mason15593.91
A.Jones Sr.12403.31
K.Murray294.50
C.Wentz5-1-0.20
ReceivingREC/TGTYDSTD
J.Jefferson8/9922
T.Hockenson4/5361
J.Oliver2/4220
D.Dallas1/110
A.Jones Sr.0/100
DefenseTKLSACKINT
A.Van Ginkel31.50
B.Cashman70.50
J.Pierre301
B.Murphy Jr.800