MIN @ CHI

Vikings

2-0

Bears

1-1

Final

Pregame model pick

CHI 61.5%

Missed

Low

Model spread: CHI -4
Model total: 49.6
ATS pick: Pass; +0.5 pt edge
Total pick: O 45.5; +4.1 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

MIN spread+4.5

MIN ML+180

Over46.5

CHI spread-4.5

CHI ML-218

Under46.5

Why the model likes CHI

The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.

Market priorhelps CHI+2.6 pts · +7.6%
Opening line CHI -3.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 1 game
Passing offensehelps CHI+1.4 pts · +3.9%
CHI +0.67 vs MIN -0.62 EPA/dropback (vs. league avg)
Run defensehurts CHI-0.8 pts · -2.4%
CHI +0.14 vs MIN -0.99 EPA/rush allowed (vs. league avg)
Rushing offensehelps CHI+0.7 pts · +1.9%
CHI +0.58 vs MIN +0.08 EPA/rush (vs. league avg)
Pass defensehurts CHI-0.4 pts · -1.2%
CHI +0.20 vs MIN -0.08 EPA/dropback allowed (vs. league avg)
Home fieldhelps CHI+0.4 pts · +1.2%
CHI at home (1.7 pts)
Point differentialhelps CHI+0.2 pts · +0.5%
CHI +22.0 vs MIN +17.0 per game

Early-season sample (1 game), so the stats are shrunk toward average and the market carries more weight.

Model vs. market

CHI win probability

GameLens: 62%
Market: 66%
Difference: -4%

Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.

Matchup Lens

The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.

Edge: MINMajor
MIN red-zone offense vs CHI red-zone defense
MIN red-zone TD rate
100% (1st)
CHI red-zone TD rate allowed
100% (18th)
Edge: CHIClear
CHI explosive plays vs MIN big-play defense
CHI explosive-play rate
12.9% (6th)
MIN explosive-play rate allowed
14.9% (30th)
Edge: MINClear
MIN run defense vs CHI run game
CHI EPA per rush
+0.61 (2nd)
MIN EPA per rush allowed
-0.96 (1st)
Edge: CHISlight
CHI passing attack vs MIN secondary
CHI EPA per dropback
+0.70 (5th)
MIN EPA per dropback allowed
-0.05 (17th)
Edge: CHISlight
CHI big-play defense vs MIN explosive plays
MIN explosive-play rate
3.2% (30th)
CHI explosive-play rate allowed
11.5% (21st)

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% MIN win probability

CHI aboveMIN below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

clutchQ4 0:06
(Shotgun) T.Bagent pass incomplete short middle to C.Loveland.
WPA -32.0%EPA +0.01
clutchQ4 0:31
(Shotgun) T.Bagent pass short right to L.Burden to MIN 12 for 8 yards (J.Pierre).
WPA +31.8%EPA +0.30
clutchQ4 0:38
(Shotgun) T.Bagent pass deep right to R.Odunze pushed ob at MIN 20 for 21 yards (I.Rodgers).
WPA +24.2%EPA +2.23
clutchQ4 0:10
(No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Bagent pass incomplete short left to L.Burden (I.Rodgers).The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld.
WPA -17.8%EPA -0.70
defenseQ3 9:42
D.Swift right tackle to MIN 1 for no gain (J.Redmond; I.Pace). FUMBLES (J.Redmond), RECOVERED by MIN-I.Rodgers at MIN 1. CHI-C.Kmet was injured during the play.
WPA -15.3%EPA -10.00
clutchQ4 6:26
C.Santos 23 yard field goal is BLOCKED (I.Rodgers), Center-B.Gardner, Holder-T.Taylor, recovered by CHI-T.Taylor at MIN 12.
WPA -13.8%

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Highlight clips post during and after the game.

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
Kalif Raymond CHI	Receiving Yards	O 23.5(-1.0 from open)	35.6	79%	+26.6%	40Hit
Kyle Monangai CHI	Rushing Yards	O 35.5(-2.0 from open)	48.4	77%	+24.2%	47Hit
Kalif Raymond CHI	Receptions	O 2.5	3.6	73%	+20.3%	5Hit
Kyle Monangai CHI	Rush + Rec Yards	O 50.5(-3.0 from open)	65.2	72%	+19.6%	58Hit
Caleb Williams CHI	Rushing Yards	O 24.5(-1.0 from open)	32.6	71%	+18.1%	42Hit
D'Andre Swift CHI	Rushing Yards	O 61.5	74	66%	+13.4%	45Miss
Jordan Addison MIN	Receiving Yards	U 40.5(+4.0 from open)	32.4	66%	+13.1%	21Hit
Colston Loveland CHI	Receiving Yards	U 49.5(+1.0 from open)	39.6	66%	+13.1%	3Hit
Colston Loveland CHI	Receptions	U 4.5	3.6	64%	+12.0%	1Hit
Caleb Williams CHI	Carries	O 5.5	6.4	63%	+10.7%	5Miss
Jordan Addison MIN	Receptions	U 3.5(+1.0 from open)	2.8	63%	+10.4%	2Hit
D'Andre Swift CHI	Rush + Rec Yards	O 76.5	88	62%	+9.4%	99Hit
Cole Kmet CHI	Receiving Yards	O 13.5(-1.0 from open)	17.8	61%	+8.9%	0Miss
Aaron Jones Sr. MIN	Receptions	U 2.5	2	61%	+8.4%	0Hit
Carson Wentz MIN	Completions	U 18.5(-1.0 from open)	17.2	60%	+8.0%	11Hit
Jauan Jennings MIN	Receiving Yards	U 18.5(+1.0 from open)	14.8	60%	+7.3%	0Hit
Aaron Jones Sr. MIN	Receiving Yards	U 17.5(+3.0 from open)	14	59%	+6.8%	0Hit
Carson Wentz MIN	Passing TDs	O 1.5	1.8	58%	+6.0%	0Miss
Jauan Jennings MIN	Receptions	U 1.5	1.2	58%	+6.0%	0Hit
Aaron Jones Sr. MIN	Rush + Rec Yards	U 78.5(-3.0 from open)	70.8	58%	+5.4%	105Miss
Kyle Monangai CHI	Receiving Yards	O 10.5	13.2	57%	+4.7%	11Hit
D'Andre Swift CHI	Carries	O 14.5	15.2	56%	+4.0%	16Hit
Carson Wentz MIN	Passing Yards	U 211.5(+4.0 from open)	195.8	56%	+3.5%	143Hit
Carson Wentz MIN	Rushing Yards	U 8.5	6.6	55%	+2.6%	6Hit
Rome Odunze CHI	Receiving Yards	O 39.5	42	55%	+2.6%	43Hit
Josh Oliver MIN	Receiving Yards	O 13.5(+3.0 from open)	15.2	55%	+2.1%	24Hit
Aaron Jones Sr. MIN	Rushing Yards	U 55.5(-7.0 from open)	52.4	54%	+2.0%	105Miss
Luther Burden III CHI	Receiving Yards	O 49.5(-1.0 from open)	52.2	54%	+1.9%	32Miss
Justin Jefferson MIN	Receptions	O 6.5(+1.0 from open)	6.8	54%	+1.7%	3Miss
Kyle Monangai CHI	Carries	O 8.5	8.8	54%	+1.2%	10Hit
T.J. Hockenson MIN	Receiving Yards	O 29.5(+2.0 from open)	30.8	53%	+1.1%	29Miss
Caleb Williams CHI	Passing Yards	O 225.5(-1.0 from open)	234.2	53%	+0.7%	138Miss
Justin Jefferson MIN	Receiving Yards	O 77.5(+5.0 from open)	80.4	53%	+0.6%	55Miss
Caleb Williams CHI	Passing TDs	O 1.5	1.6	53%	+0.4%	0Miss
Aaron Jones Sr. MIN	Carries	U 13.5(-3.0 from open)	13.2	53%	+0.4%	23Miss
Josh Oliver MIN	Receptions	O 1.5	1.6	53%	+0.4%	1Miss
Cole Kmet CHI	Receptions	O 1.5	1.6	53%	+0.4%	0Miss
D'Andre Swift CHI	Receptions	U 1.5	1.4	53%	+0.4%	5Miss
Kyle Monangai CHI	Receptions	O 1.5	1.6	53%	+0.4%	2Hit
Caleb Williams CHI	Completions	O 19.5	19.8	52%	0.0%	15Miss
Rome Odunze CHI	Receptions	U 2.5	2.4	52%	-0.2%	3Miss
T.J. Hockenson MIN	Receptions	O 3.5	3.6	52%	-0.5%	3Miss
Luther Burden III CHI	Receptions	O 4.5	4.6	52%	-0.8%	3Miss
D'Andre Swift CHI	Receiving Yards	O 9.5(-2.0 from open)	9.6	50%	-2.1%	54Hit
Aaron Jones Sr. MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
T.J. Hockenson MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Cole Kmet CHI	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
D'Andre Swift CHI	Anytime TD	Yes	3	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Justin Jefferson MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	2	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Jordan Mason MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Caleb Williams CHI	Anytime TD	Yes	2	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Kyle Monangai CHI	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Jahdae Walker CHI	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Carson Wentz MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Kalif Raymond CHI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Jauan Jennings MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Josh Oliver MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
DeeJay Dallas MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Roschon Johnson CHI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Jordan Addison MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Myles Price MIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Rome Odunze CHI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Luther Burden III CHI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Colston Loveland CHI	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Minnesota Vikings

deep left31/3 · 30 yds

deep middle10/1 · 0 yds

deep right10/1 · 0 yds

short left52/5 · 18 yds

short middle54/5 · 47 yds

short right54/5 · 48 yds

Line of scrimmage

20 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Chicago Bears

deep left10/1 · 0 yds

deep middle21/2 · 18 yds

deep right21/2 · 21 yds

short left116/11 · 76 yds

short middle62/6 · 23 yds

short right1010/10 · 54 yds

Line of scrimmage

32 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 77/120 (64%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00MIN9–3
END GAME
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.0%
Q4 0:01CHI4th & 2 at MIN 129–3
(Shotgun) T.Bagent sacked at MIN 21 for -9 yards (D.Turner).
EPA-3.71
WPA (home)-13.5%
Home WP0.1%
PredictedPass 78%✓correct
Q4 0:01CHI4th & 2 at MIN 129–3
Timeout #2 by MIN at 00:01.
WPA (home)-6.8%
Home WP13.6%
Q4 0:06CHI3rd & 2 at MIN 129–3
(Shotgun) T.Bagent pass incomplete short middle to C.Loveland.
EPA+0.01
WPA (home)-32.0%
Home WP20.4%
Yards0
Air zoneshort middle
TargetC.Loveland (inc)
PredictedPass 74%✓correct
Q4 0:10CHI2nd & 2 at MIN 129–3
(No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Bagent pass incomplete short left to L.Burden (I.Rodgers).The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld.
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)-17.8%
Home WP52.4%
Yards0
Air zoneshort left
TargetL.Burden (inc)
PredictedPass 70%✓correct
Q4 0:31CHI1st & 10 at MIN 209–3
(Shotgun) T.Bagent pass short right to L.Burden to MIN 12 for 8 yards (J.Pierre).
EPA+0.30
WPA (home)+31.8%
Home WP70.2%
Yards8
Air zoneshort right
TargetL.Burden
PredictedPass 78%✓correct
Q4 0:38CHI2nd & 10 at MIN 419–3
(Shotgun) T.Bagent pass deep right to R.Odunze pushed ob at MIN 20 for 21 yards (I.Rodgers).
EPA+2.23
WPA (home)+24.2%
Home WP38.4%
Yards21
Air zonedeep right
TargetR.Odunze
PredictedPass 86%✓correct
Q4 0:39CHI1st & 10 at MIN 419–3
(No Huddle) T.Bagent spiked the ball to stop the clock.
EPA-0.71
WPA (home)-8.0%
Home WP14.2%
Yards0
PredictedPass 78%✓correct
Q4 0:54CHI2nd & 4 at CHI 419–3
(Shotgun) T.Bagent pass deep middle to L.Burden to MIN 41 for 18 yards (B.Murphy).
EPA+1.68
WPA (home)+6.5%
Home WP22.2%
Yards18
Air zonedeep middle
TargetL.Burden
PredictedPass 80%✓correct
Q4 1:00CHI1st & 10 at CHI 359–3
(Shotgun) T.Bagent pass short left to L.Burden pushed ob at CHI 41 for 6 yards (J.Pierre).
EPA+0.05
WPA (home)+4.6%
Home WP15.7%
Yards6
Air zoneshort left
TargetL.Burden
PredictedPass 78%✓correct
Q4 1:09MIN9–3
W.Reichard kicks 60 yards from MIN 35 to CHI 5. Z.Thomas to CHI 35 for 30 yards (J.Ward; J.Golday).
WPA (home)+5.8%
Home WP11.1%
Q4 1:09MIN4th & 7 at CHI 21Score9–3
W.Reichard 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.
WPA (home)-1.3%
Home WP5.4%
Q4 1:13MIN4th & 7 at CHI 216–3
Timeout #1 by MIN at 01:13.
WPA (home)-6.1%
Home WP6.7%
Q4 2:00MIN3rd & 10 at CHI 246–3
(Shotgun) C.Wentz pass short right to T.Hockenson to CHI 21 for 3 yards (T.Edwards; X.Woods).
EPA+1.04
WPA (home)+4.0%
Home WP12.8%
Yards3
Air zoneshort right
TargetT.Hockenson
PredictedPass 61%✓correct
Q4 2:00MIN3rd & 10 at CHI 246–3
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)-2.3%
Home WP8.8%
Q4 2:13MIN2nd & 10 at CHI 246–3
A.Jones right guard to CHI 24 for no gain (J.Lynch).
EPA+1.03
WPA (home)-2.5%
Home WP11.1%
Yards0
PredictedRun 69%✓correct
Q4 2:56MIN1st & 10 at CHI 246–3
A.Jones right guard to CHI 24 for no gain (G.Jarrett).
EPA-0.71
WPA (home)+5.2%
Home WP13.6%
Yards0
PredictedRun 80%✓correct
Q4 2:56MIN1st & 10 at CHI 246–3
Timeout #3 by CHI at 02:56.
WPA (home)-2.8%
Home WP8.4%
Q4 3:04MIN2nd & 5 at CHI 396–3
A.Jones left end to CHI 24 for 15 yards (C.Lewis).
EPA+3.25
WPA (home)-4.3%
Home WP11.2%
Yards15
PredictedRun 77%✓correct
Q4 3:04MIN2nd & 5 at CHI 396–3
Timeout #2 by CHI at 03:04.
WPA (home)-2.3%
Home WP15.5%
Q4 3:09MIN1st & 10 at CHI 446–3
A.Jones right guard to CHI 39 for 5 yards (D.Jackson; M.Muhammad).
EPA+2.73
WPA (home)+3.0%
Home WP17.9%
Yards5
PredictedRun 80%✓correct
Q4 3:09MIN1st & 10 at CHI 446–3
Timeout #1 by CHI at 03:09.
WPA (home)-2.5%
Home WP14.9%
Q4 3:15MIN2nd & 10 at MIN 376–3
C.Wentz pass short right to T.Hockenson to CHI 44 for 19 yards (J.Johnson).
EPA+5.25
WPA (home)-10.7%
Home WP17.4%
Yards19
Air zoneshort right
TargetT.Hockenson
PredictedRun 69%×incorrect
Q4 3:58MIN1st & 10 at MIN 376–3
A.Jones right tackle to MIN 37 for no gain (J.Johnson).
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)+4.6%
Home WP28.1%
Yards0
PredictedRun 80%✓correct
Q4 4:05MIN1st & 10 at MIN 326–3
C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right to J.Jefferson.PENALTY on CHI-T.Stevenson, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 32 - No Play.
WPA (home)-3.6%
Home WP23.5%
Air zonedeep right
TargetJ.Jefferson
Q4 4:51MIN3rd & 5 at MIN 176–3
(Shotgun) C.Wentz pass short middle to J.Addison to MIN 32 for 15 yards (C.Lewis).
EPA+2.22
WPA (home)-11.2%
Home WP27.0%
Yards15
Air zoneshort middle
TargetJ.Addison
PredictedPass 61%✓correct
Q4 5:41MIN2nd & 5 at MIN 176–3
A.Jones left tackle to MIN 17 for no gain (T.Stevenson).
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)+1.6%
Home WP38.2%
Yards0
PredictedRun 57%✓correct
Q4 6:21MIN1st & 10 at MIN 126–3
A.Jones right guard to MIN 17 for 5 yards (J.Johnson). ** Injury Update: MIN-A.Jones has returned to the game.
EPA-0.08
WPA (home)+0.2%
Home WP36.6%
Yards5
PredictedRun 61%✓correct
Q4 6:21MIN1st & 10 at MIN 126–3
Official Timeout at 06:21.
WPA (home)-2.6%
Home WP36.4%
Q4 6:26CHI4th & Goal at MIN 5Turnover6–3
C.Santos 23 yard field goal is BLOCKED (I.Rodgers), Center-B.Gardner, Holder-T.Taylor, recovered by CHI-T.Taylor at MIN 12.
WPA (home)-13.8%
Home WP39.0%

Box score

Team stats	MIN	CHI
Total yards	246	297
Yards / play	4.8	4.2
Turnovers	0	2
3rd down	3-13	5-15
Red zone	0-1	0-3
Possession	27:19	32:41

Minnesota Vikings

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
C.Wentz	11/20	143	0	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
A.Jones Sr.	23	105	4.6
D.Dallas	2	8	4.0
C.Wentz	3	6	2.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS
J.Jefferson	3/6	55
T.Hockenson	3/4	29
J.Oliver	1/1	24
J.Addison	2/5	21
D.Dallas	1/1	12

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
B.Cashman	10	1	0
D.Turner	5	2	0
B.Murphy Jr.	7	0	1
A.Van Ginkel	3	1	0

Chicago Bears

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
C.Williams	15/26	138	0	1
T.Bagent	5/9	54	0	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
K.Monangai	10	47	4.7
D.Swift	16	45	2.8
C.Williams	5	42	8.4

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS
D.Swift	5/6	54
R.Odunze	3/4	43
K.Raymond	5/5	40
L.Burden III	3/7	32
K.Monangai	2/2	11

Defense	TKL	SACK
M.Muhammad II	3	1
D.Thieneman	7	0
J.Lynch	7	0
D.Odeyingbo	1	1

Model breakdown

Why the model likes CHI

Model vs. market

Matchup Lens

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Chicago Bears