Lions
1-1
31
Bills
2-0
41
Final
Pregame model pick
BUF 61.4%
Correct
- Model spread
- BUF -4
- Model total
- 53.0
- ATS pick
- Pass
- +0.9 pt edge
- Total pick
- Pass
- +0.5 pt edge
Model breakdown
Why the model likes BUF
The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.
- Market priorhelps BUF+2.3 pts · +6.5%
Opening line BUF -3, weighted 75% while the sample is 1 game
- Passing offensehelps BUF+2.0 pts · +5.7%
BUF +0.82 vs DET -0.60 EPA/dropback (vs. league avg)
- Rushing offensehurts BUF-0.5 pts · -1.5%
BUF -0.29 vs DET +0.24 EPA/rush (vs. league avg)
- Home fieldhelps BUF+0.4 pts · +1.2%
BUF at home (1.7 pts)
- Pass defensehurts BUF-0.2 pts · -0.6%
BUF +0.28 vs DET +0.08 EPA/dropback allowed (vs. league avg)
- Point differentialhelps BUF+0.1 pts · +0.4%
BUF +5.0 vs DET +1.0 per game
- Run defensehurts BUF-0.1 pts · -0.2%
BUF +0.29 vs DET +0.34 EPA/rush allowed (vs. league avg)
Early-season sample (1 game), so the stats are shrunk toward average and the market carries more weight.
Model vs. market
BUF win probability
- GameLens
- 61%
- Market
- 68%
- Difference
- -7%
Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.
Matchup Lens
The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.
- Edge: BUFClear
BUF passing attack vs DET secondary
- BUF EPA per dropback
- +0.85 (3rd)
- DET EPA per dropback allowed
- +0.11 (20th)
- Edge: BUFClear
BUF explosive plays vs DET big-play defense
- BUF explosive-play rate
- 15.7% (2nd)
- DET explosive-play rate allowed
- 9.4% (15th)
- Edge: DETSlight
DET red-zone defense vs BUF red-zone offense
- BUF red-zone TD rate
- 33% (21st)
- DET red-zone TD rate allowed
- 80% (15th)
- Edge: DETSlight
DET run game vs BUF run defense
- DET EPA per rush
- +0.27 (11th)
- BUF EPA per rush allowed
- +0.32 (22nd)
Live win probability
Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.
Win probability
100.0% BUF win probability
Key moments
Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.
Key moments
- clutchQ2 1:27
(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short middle to D.Kincaid to BUF 30 for 6 yards (J.Campbell; C.Clark).
WPA +33.9%EPA +6.46 - clutchQ2 1:27
Timeout #2 by BUF at 01:27.
WPA -33.6% - touchdownQ1 3:42
(Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [S.Gill-Howard]. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.
WPA +8.1%EPA +5.17 - big playQ1 5:14
(Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to D.Kincaid to DET 42 for 25 yards (A.Maddox; D.Reed).
WPA +3.3%EPA +2.46 - defenseQ1 13:48
J.Allen sacked at BUF 32 for -4 yards (A.Hutchinson). FUMBLES (A.Hutchinson) [A.Hutchinson], recovered by BUF-S.Brown at BUF 31.
WPA -3.2%EPA -1.35 - defenseQ1 2:25
J.Goff sacked at 50 for -9 yards (G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (G.Rousseau) [G.Rousseau], recovered by DET-B.Wright at DET 49.
WPA +3.1%EPA -1.97
Highlights
Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.
Highlights
Highlight clips post during and after the game.
Player props
Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.
Player props
Passing target maps
Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.
Target maps
40 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
31 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
Play-by-play
EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.
Play-by-play
Play-call model: 80/131 (61%) run/pass correct
- Q4 0:00BUF31–41
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP100.0% - Q4 0:11BUF3rd & 12 at DET 2231–41
J.Allen kneels to DET 23 for -1 yards.
EPA-3.29WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-1PredictedPass 57%×incorrect - Q4 0:49BUF2nd & 11 at DET 2131–41
J.Allen kneels to DET 22 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.83WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-1PredictedRun 72%✓correct - Q4 1:28BUF1st & 10 at DET 2031–41
J.Allen kneels to DET 21 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.84WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-1PredictedRun 82%✓correct - Q4 1:33BUF2nd & 9 at DET 3531–41
J.Cook left tackle to DET 38 for -3 yards (T.Lacy, T.Williams).PENALTY on DET-T.Lacy, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at DET 35 - No Play.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 1:33BUF2nd & 9 at DET 3531–41
Timeout #2 by DET at 01:33.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 1:39BUF1st & 10 at DET 3631–41
J.Cook right guard to DET 35 for 1 yard (M.Rodriguez; T.Williams).
EPA+1.93WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards1PredictedRun 82%✓correct - Q4 1:42DET31–41
J.Bates kicks onside 12 yards from DET 35 to DET 47. K.Shakir to DET 36 for 11 yards (J.Saylors).
WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP99.9% - Q4 1:42DET1st & 10 at BUF 27Score31–41
(Shotgun) J.Goff pass deep middle to A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN [M.Danna]. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.
EPA+2.54WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP99.8%Yards27Air zonedeep middleTargetA.St. BrownPredictedPass 85%✓correct - Q4 1:48DET1st & 10 at BUF 2724–41
Timeout #1 by BUF at 01:48.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 2:00DET1st & 10 at BUF 4424–41
(Shotgun) J.Goff pass deep left to J.Williams to BUF 27 for 17 yards (T.Bernard; D.Hamlin). BUF-J.Solomon was injured during the play.
EPA+3.17WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards17Air zonedeep leftTargetJ.WilliamsPredictedPass 75%✓correct - Q4 2:00DET1st & 10 at BUF 4424–41
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 2:06DET1st & 10 at DET 4424–41
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Goff pass short middle to J.Gibbs to BUF 44 for 12 yards (C.Bishop).
EPA+4.03WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards12Air zoneshort middleTargetJ.GibbsPredictedPass 75%✓correct - Q4 2:12DET4th & 18 at DET 2424–41
(Shotgun) J.Goff pass deep left to I.TeSlaa pushed ob at DET 44 for 20 yards (C.Benford).
EPA+4.14WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards20Air zonedeep leftTargetI.TeSlaaPredictedPass 96%✓correct - Q4 2:16DET3rd & 18 at DET 2424–41
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to A.St. Brown.
EPA-0.85WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards0Air zonedeep middleTargetA.St. Brown (inc)PredictedPass 95%✓correct - Q4 2:41DET2nd & 10 at DET 3224–41
(Shotgun) J.Goff sacked at DET 24 for -8 yards (sack split by M.Hoecht and B.Chubb).
EPA-1.72WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%PredictedPass 84%✓correct - Q4 2:45DET1st & 10 at DET 3224–41
(Shotgun) J.Goff pass incomplete short right to J.Gibbs.
EPA-0.72WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards0Air zoneshort rightTargetJ.Gibbs (inc)PredictedPass 75%✓correct - Q4 2:50BUF24–41
T.Bass kicks 56 yards from BUF 35 to DET 9. T.Kennedy pushed ob at DET 32 for 23 yards (D.Igbinosun).
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 2:50BUF & Goal at DET 1524–41
Official Timeout at 02:50.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 2:50BUF1st & Goal at DET 1Score24–41
J.Cook right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.
EPA+0.42WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards1PredictedRun 93%✓correct - Q4 3:01BUF1st & 10 at DET 2324–34
J.Cook right tackle pushed ob at DET 1 for 22 yards (C.Clark).
EPA+1.83WPA (home)+0.2%Home WP99.9%Yards22PredictedRun 82%✓correct - Q4 3:45BUF1st & 10 at DET 3524–34
J.Allen pass short middle to K.Coleman to DET 23 for 12 yards (J.Campbell) [T.Nowaske]. ** Injury Update: DET-R.Ya-Sin has returned to the game.
EPA+0.86WPA (home)+0.2%Home WP99.7%Yards12Air zoneshort middleTargetK.ColemanPredictedRun 82%×incorrect - Q4 4:31BUF2nd & 12 at BUF 4924–34
(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to K.Shakir to DET 35 for 16 yards (C.Clark; J.Campbell).
EPA+1.98WPA (home)+1.4%Home WP99.5%Yards16Air zoneshort rightTargetK.ShakirPredictedRun 72%×incorrect - Q4 5:25BUF1st & 10 at DET 4924–34
J.Cook right tackle to BUF 49 for -2 yards (K.Dorsey). The player down by contact was assisted by replay.
EPA-0.97WPA (home)-0.5%Home WP98.1%Yards-2PredictedRun 64%✓correct - Q4 6:05BUF3rd & 7 at BUF 4224–34
(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to K.Coleman to DET 49 for 9 yards (R.Ya-Sin). DET-R.Ya-Sin was injured during the play.
EPA+1.90WPA (home)+1.8%Home WP98.7%Yards9Air zoneshort leftTargetK.ColemanPredictedPass 77%✓correct - Q4 6:47BUF2nd & 8 at BUF 4124–34
(Shotgun) J.Cook left guard to BUF 42 for 1 yard (C.Izien).
EPA-0.57WPA (home)0.0%Home WP96.9%Yards1PredictedRun 50%✓correct - Q4 7:28BUF1st & 10 at BUF 3924–34
J.Cook left tackle to BUF 41 for 2 yards (C.Clark).
EPA-0.46WPA (home)-0.6%Home WP96.8%Yards2PredictedRun 64%✓correct - Q4 7:28BUF1st & 10 at BUF 3924–34
Official Timeout at 07:28.
WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP97.4% - Q4 7:36DET4th & 10 at DET 1024–34
J.Fox punts 51 yards to BUF 39, Center-H.Hatten. G.Dortch ran ob at BUF 39 for no gain.
WPA (home)-0.7%Home WP97.3% - Q4 7:41DET3rd & 10 at DET 1024–34
(Shotgun) J.Goff pass incomplete short right to A.St. Brown (D.Walker).
EPA-4.91WPA (home)+1.1%Home WP98.0%Yards0Air zoneshort rightTargetA.St. Brown (inc)PredictedPass 92%✓correct
Box score
Box score
| Team stats | DET | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 355 | 446 |
| Yards / play | 5.7 | 6.5 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| 3rd down | 4-11 | 9-12 |
| Red zone | 3-4 | 5-5 |
| Possession | 26:15 | 33:45 |
Detroit Lions
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 J.Goff | 26/38 | 327 | 4 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 A.St. Brown | 9/13 | 142 | 2 |
 J.Gibbs | 6/8 | 61 | 1 |
 S.LaPorta | 6/7 | 52 | 1 |
 J.Williams | 2/4 | 33 | 0 |
 I.TeSlaa | 2/5 | 26 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 D.Barnes | 7 | 1 | 0 |
 C.Clark | 11 | 0 | 0 |
 A.Hutchinson | 3 | 1 | 0 |
 R.Ya-Sin | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Buffalo Bills
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 J.Allen | 20/31 | 248 | 3 | 0 |
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 J.Cook III | 21 | 135 | 6.4 | 1 |
| J.Allen | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 2 |
 D.Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 G.Rousseau | 3 | 2 | 0 |
 B.Chubb | 4 | 1.5 | 0 |
 C.Benford | 8 | 0 | 0 |
 D.Williams | 6 | 0 | 0 |
