JAX @ DEN

Jaguars

1-1

Broncos

1-1

Final

Final · Game report

Denver Broncos rally past JAX, 20-13

Denver Broncos were down to a 10% win probability at their low point and still came back to win by 7.

Play for play, DEN had the more efficient offense: +0.13 EPA per play for DEN versus -0.17 for JAX.

GameLens picked JAX at 54% before kickoff, and this is one the model missed.

Play of the game · Q4 7:30 · 15% win-prob swing

(Shotgun) B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to C.Sutton.PENALTY on JAX-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at JAX 28 - No Play.PENALTY on JAX, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 3 yards, enforced between downs.

How it was won

DEN won on the ground, averaging 0.22 EPA per run compared with 0.05 per dropback.

Team stat comparison
JAX	Stat	DEN
-0.17	EPA / play	+0.13
49%	Success rate	49%
268	Total yards	392
4.9	Yards / play	6.6
1	Turnovers	1
5-12	3rd down	4-11
1-2	Red zone	2-5
28:43	Possession	31:17

Standouts

Pregame model pick

JAX 53.5%

Missed · ATS loss

Low

Model spread: DEN +1
Model total: 44.3
ATS pick: JAX +2.5; -3.7 pt edge
Total pick: Pass; -0.2 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

JAX spread+2.5

JAX ML+120

Over45.5

DEN spread-2.5

DEN ML-142

Under45.5

Why the model likes JAX

The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.

Market priorhurts JAX-1.9 pts · -5.5%
Opening line DEN -2.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 1 game
Passing offensehelps JAX+1.6 pts · +4.9%
DEN -0.38 vs JAX +1.02 EPA/dropback (vs. league avg)
Point differentialhelps JAX+1.4 pts · +4.3%
DEN -21.0 vs JAX +24.0 per game
Home fieldhurts JAX-0.4 pts · -1.2%
DEN at home (1.7 pts)
Run defensehelps JAX+0.3 pts · +0.9%
DEN +0.31 vs JAX +0.10 EPA/rush allowed (vs. league avg)
Pass defensehelps JAX+0.1 pts · +0.3%
DEN -0.58 vs JAX -0.55 EPA/dropback allowed (vs. league avg)

Early-season sample (1 game), so the stats are shrunk toward average and the market carries more weight.

Model vs. market

JAX win probability

GameLens: 54%
Market: 44%
Difference: +10%

Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.

Matchup Lens

The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.

Edge: JAXMajor
JAX pass rush vs DEN offensive line
DEN sack rate allowed
15.6% (30th)
JAX sack rate generated
18.5% (1st)
Edge: JAXClear
JAX explosive plays vs DEN big-play defense
JAX explosive-play rate
16.1% (1st)
DEN explosive-play rate allowed
11.9% (22nd)
Edge: JAXClear
JAX big-play defense vs DEN explosive plays
DEN explosive-play rate
2.2% (31st)
JAX explosive-play rate allowed
10.2% (16th)
Edge: JAXSlight
JAX secondary vs DEN passing attack
DEN EPA per dropback
-0.35 (20th)
JAX EPA per dropback allowed
-0.52 (10th)
Edge: JAXSlight
JAX third-down offense vs DEN third-down defense
JAX third-down conversion rate
50% (8th)
DEN third-down rate allowed
53% (20th)

Momentum tracker

0–100 score for who controls the game right now, weighted toward the most recent plays by EPA.

Final momentum

13/100JAX · Even

Last 60 plays

JAXDEN

Recent swing plays

-73Q4 0:39 B.Nix kneels to JAX 21 for -1 yards.
-19Q4 1:20B.Nix kneels to JAX 20 for -1 yards.
-13Q4 2:00B.Nix kneels to JAX 19 for -1 yards.

Positive values push momentum toward DEN.

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% DEN win probability

DEN aboveJAX below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

clutchQ4 7:30
(Shotgun) B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to C.Sutton.PENALTY on JAX-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at JAX 28 - No Play.PENALTY on JAX, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 3 yards, enforced between downs.
WPA +14.9%
clutchQ4 11:47
B.Nix pass short right to N.Adkins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.
WPA +10.9%EPA +1.65
clutchQ4 11:11
(No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass deep left to J.Meyers to DEN 38 for 28 yards (T.Hufanga).
WPA -10.4%EPA +3.32
defenseQ2 2:15
(Shotgun) B.Nix pass deep left intended for C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by J.Lewis at JAX -8. Touchback.
WPA -10.0%EPA -5.16
big playQ2 13:06
(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass deep middle to P.Washington to DEN 1 for 32 yards (B.Jones).
WPA -9.7%EPA +3.71
clutchQ4 9:45
C.Little 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.
WPA +9.7%

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Highlight clips post during and after the game.

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
Jaylen Waddle DEN	Receiving Yards	U 54.5(+1.0 from open)	44	65%	+12.6%	138Miss
Trevor Lawrence JAX	Passing TDs	O 1.5	2	64%	+11.5%	0Miss
Courtland Sutton DEN	Receiving Yards	U 40.5(-2.0 from open)	34.6	61%	+9.1%	25Hit
Jaylen Waddle DEN	Receptions	U 4.5	3.8	61%	+8.9%	8Miss
J.K. Dobbins DEN	Carries	U 13.5(+1.0 from open)	12.4	60%	+7.9%	10Hit
Jonah Coleman DEN	Rushing Yards	U 18.5	14.8	60%	+7.3%	39Miss
Bo Nix DEN	Rushing Yards	U 18.5	15.2	59%	+6.3%	6Hit
Evan Engram DEN	Receiving Yards	O 26.5(+2.0 from open)	29.8	59%	+6.3%	17Miss
Trevor Lawrence JAX	Carries	U 4.5(+1.0 from open)	4	58%	+5.7%	2Hit
Trevor Lawrence JAX	Rushing Yards	U 17.5(+1.0 from open)	14.6	58%	+5.3%	6Hit
Bo Nix DEN	Completions	U 21.5	20.6	57%	+4.3%	22Miss
Bo Nix DEN	Passing Yards	U 220.5(-3.0 from open)	202.6	56%	+4.0%	288Miss
Parker Washington JAX	Receiving Yards	O 59.5(+8.0 from open)	64.2	56%	+3.9%	98Hit
Bhayshul Tuten JAX	Rush + Rec Yards	O 63.5(+1.0 from open)	68.4	56%	+3.7%	62Miss
J.K. Dobbins DEN	Rushing Yards	U 58.5(+8.0 from open)	54	56%	+3.7%	36Hit
Bhayshul Tuten JAX	Receiving Yards	O 10.5(+2.0 from open)	12.8	56%	+3.7%	-3Miss
Bhayshul Tuten JAX	Rushing Yards	O 48.5(-4.0 from open)	52	56%	+3.3%	65Hit
Courtland Sutton DEN	Receptions	U 3.5	3.2	56%	+3.1%	3Hit
Jakobi Meyers JAX	Receptions	U 3.5	3.2	56%	+3.1%	1Hit
Brenton Strange JAX	Receptions	U 3.5	3.2	56%	+3.1%	2Hit
Bo Nix DEN	Carries	U 4.5	4.2	55%	+2.5%	5Miss
Bhayshul Tuten JAX	Carries	O 12.5(-1.0 from open)	13	55%	+2.5%	13Hit
Pat Bryant DEN	Receiving Yards	O 32.5(-1.0 from open)	34.4	55%	+2.3%	0Miss
Brenton Strange JAX	Receiving Yards	U 31.5(-2.0 from open)	29.8	54%	+1.9%	17Hit
Bo Nix DEN	Passing TDs	U 1.5	1.4	53%	+0.4%	1Hit
Adam Trautman DEN	Receptions	O 1.5	1.6	53%	+0.4%	0Miss
Bhayshul Tuten JAX	Receptions	U 1.5	1.4	53%	+0.4%	2Miss
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX	Receiving Yards	O 34.5(+1.0 from open)	35.6	53%	+0.1%	40Hit
Trevor Lawrence JAX	Completions	U 19.5	19.2	52%	0.0%	17Hit
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX	Receptions	O 2.5	2.6	52%	-0.2%	3Hit
Evan Engram DEN	Receptions	O 3.5(+1.0 from open)	3.6	52%	-0.5%	1Miss
Pat Bryant DEN	Receptions	O 3.5	3.6	52%	-0.5%	0Miss
Parker Washington JAX	Receptions	O 4.5	4.6	52%	-0.8%	7Hit
Trevor Lawrence JAX	Passing Yards	O 223.5(+3.0 from open)	227.8	52%	-0.9%	189Miss
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX	Rushing Yards	U 24.5	24.2	51%	-1.6%	13Hit
Jakobi Meyers JAX	Receiving Yards	O 38.5(+2.0 from open)	38.8	51%	-1.8%	28Miss
Adam Trautman DEN	Receiving Yards	U 10.5(+2.0 from open)	10.4	50%	-2.1%	0Hit
Evan Engram DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Jakobi Meyers JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Brenton Strange JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Parker Washington JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Josh Cameron JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Ameer Abdullah JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Courtland Sutton DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Adam Trautman DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
J.K. Dobbins DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Quintin Morris JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Trevor Lawrence JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Jaylen Waddle DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Nate Adkins DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	1Hit
Bo Nix DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Troy Franklin DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
RJ Harvey DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Pat Bryant DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Travis Hunter JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Nate Boerkircher JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Marvin Mims Jr. DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Jonah Coleman DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	1Hit
Bhayshul Tuten JAX	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	1Hit

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Jacksonville Jaguars

deep left62/6 · 46 yds

deep middle22/2 · 50 yds

deep right0—

short left118/11 · 70 yds

short middle20/2 · 0 yds

short right107/10 · 42 yds

Line of scrimmage

31 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Denver Broncos

deep left43/4 · 62 yds

deep middle11/1 · 49 yds

deep right31/3 · 29 yds

short left1311/13 · 88 yds

short middle11/1 · 14 yds

short right96/9 · 51 yds

Line of scrimmage

31 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 80/120 (67%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00DEN13–20
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP100.0%
Q4 0:39DEN3rd & 12 at JAX 2013–20
B.Nix kneels to JAX 21 for -1 yards.
EPA-3.44
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedPass 85%×incorrect
Q4 1:20DEN2nd & 11 at JAX 1913–20
B.Nix kneels to JAX 20 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.83
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedPass 63%×incorrect
Q4 2:00DEN1st & 10 at JAX 1813–20
B.Nix kneels to JAX 19 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.84
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 76%✓correct
Q4 2:00DEN1st & 10 at JAX 1813–20
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 2:35DEN2nd & 11 at JAX 3013–20
J.Coleman left end to JAX 18 for 12 yards (T.Hunter).
EPA+2.93
WPA (home)+1.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards12
PredictedRun 64%✓correct
Q4 2:35DEN2nd & 11 at JAX 3013–20
Timeout #1 by DEN at 02:35.
WPA (home)+1.3%
Home WP98.9%
Q4 3:19DEN1st & 10 at JAX 2913–20
J.Coleman up the middle to JAX 30 for -1 yards (A.Armstead). ** Injury Update: JAX-D.Hamilton has returned to the game.
EPA+1.32
WPA (home)-1.5%
Home WP97.6%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 76%✓correct
Q4 3:19DEN1st & 10 at JAX 2913–20
Timeout #3 by JAX at 03:19.
WPA (home)+0.8%
Home WP99.2%
Q4 3:26DEN2nd & 7 at JAX 4113–20
J.Coleman left tackle to JAX 29 for 12 yards (E.Murray).
EPA+3.50
WPA (home)+3.3%
Home WP98.4%
Yards12
PredictedRun 64%✓correct
Q4 3:26DEN2nd & 7 at JAX 4113–20
Timeout #2 by JAX at 03:26.
WPA (home)+0.7%
Home WP95.1%
Q4 3:33DEN1st & 10 at JAX 4413–20
J.Coleman right guard to JAX 41 for 3 yards (A.Regis; V.Miller).
EPA+2.62
WPA (home)-1.2%
Home WP94.3%
Yards3
PredictedRun 76%✓correct
Q4 3:41DEN3rd & 3 at DEN 2713–20
(Shotgun) B.Nix pass deep right to J.Waddle to JAX 44 for 29 yards (J.Lewis).Penalty on JAX-M.Brown, Defensive Holding, declined.
EPA+3.12
WPA (home)+5.9%
Home WP95.5%
Yards29
Air zonedeep right
TargetJ.Waddle
PredictedRun 55%×incorrect
Q4 3:47DEN3rd & 3 at DEN 2713–20
Official Timeout at 03:47.
WPA (home)+0.3%
Home WP89.6%
Q4 3:59DEN2nd & 4 at DEN 2613–20
(Shotgun) J.Coleman left tackle to DEN 27 for 1 yard (D.Hamilton; T.Walker). JAX-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.
EPA+4.68
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP89.3%
Yards1
PredictedRun 73%✓correct
Q4 4:41DEN1st & 10 at DEN 2013–20
J.Coleman left guard to DEN 26 for 6 yards (V.Miller).
EPA+0.05
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP89.4%
Yards6
PredictedRun 76%✓correct
Q4 4:41DEN1st & 10 at DEN 2013–20
Official Timeout at 04:41.
WPA (home)+0.2%
Home WP89.3%
Q4 4:46JAX4th & 11 at JAX 3413–20
L.Cooke punts 46 yards to DEN 20, Center-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
WPA (home)-1.3%
Home WP89.1%
Q4 4:52JAX3rd & 11 at JAX 3413–20
(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left to Bri.Thomas (P.Surtain) [N.Bonitto].
EPA-6.58
WPA (home)+2.8%
Home WP90.5%
Yards0
Air zonedeep left
TargetBri.Thomas (inc)
PredictedPass 88%✓correct
Q4 4:56JAX2nd & 11 at JAX 3413–20
(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to Bri.Thomas (R.Moss).
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)+2.7%
Home WP87.7%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetBri.Thomas (inc)
PredictedPass 68%✓correct
Q4 5:35JAX1st & 10 at JAX 3513–20
(Shotgun) B.Tuten left end pushed ob at JAX 34 for -1 yards (M.Roach).
EPA-0.84
WPA (home)+4.2%
Home WP85.0%
Yards-1
PredictedPass 54%×incorrect
Q4 6:03JAX1st & 10 at JAX 3013–20
(Shotgun) T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 28 for -2 yards (sack split by Z.Allen and J.Elliss).PENALTY on DEN-P.Surtain, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 30 - No Play.
EPA+0.36
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP80.8%
PredictedPass 54%✓correct
Q4 6:41JAX2nd & 2 at JAX 2813–20
A.Abdullah left tackle to JAX 30 for 2 yards (J.Elliss).
EPA+0.42
WPA (home)+1.5%
Home WP80.8%
Yards2
PredictedRun 56%✓correct
Q4 7:21JAX1st & 10 at JAX 2013–20
W.Milum reported in as eligible. B.Tuten left end to JAX 28 for 8 yards (R.Moss).
EPA+0.30
WPA (home)-2.5%
Home WP79.3%
Yards8
PredictedPass 54%×incorrect
Q4 7:21DEN13–20
W.Lutz kicks 65 yards from DEN 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the JAX 20.
WPA (home)+0.5%
Home WP81.7%
Q4 7:21DEN & Goal at JAX 1513–20
Official Timeout at 07:21.
WPA (home)+0.5%
Home WP81.2%
Q4 7:21DEN1st & Goal at JAX 3Score13–20
J.Coleman right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.
EPA+0.62
WPA (home)+6.3%
Home WP80.7%
Yards3
PredictedRun 68%✓correct
Q4 7:30DEN2nd & 10 at JAX 2813–13
(Shotgun) B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to C.Sutton.PENALTY on JAX-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at JAX 28 - No Play.PENALTY on JAX, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 3 yards, enforced between downs.
WPA (home)+14.9%
Home WP74.5%
Air zonedeep right
TargetC.Sutton
Q4 7:34DEN1st & 10 at JAX 2813–13
(Shotgun) B.Nix pass incomplete short left to L.Humphrey (J.Jones).
EPA-0.71
WPA (home)-2.3%
Home WP59.6%
Yards0
Air zoneshort left
TargetL.Humphrey (inc)
PredictedPass 56%✓correct
Q4 8:23DEN1st & 10 at JAX 4513–13
(Shotgun) B.Nix pass deep left to E.Engram to JAX 28 for 17 yards (T.Hunter).
EPA+1.22
WPA (home)+6.0%
Home WP61.9%
Yards17
Air zonedeep left
TargetE.Engram
PredictedPass 56%✓correct

Box score

Team stats	JAX	DEN
Total yards	268	392
Yards / play	4.9	6.6
Turnovers	1	1
3rd down	5-12	4-11
Red zone	1-2	2-5
Possession	28:43	31:17

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
T.Lawrence	17/29	189	0	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
B.Tuten	13	65	5.0	1
C.Rodriguez Jr.	6	13	2.2	0
A.Abdullah	3	11	3.7	0
T.Lawrence	2	6	3.0	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS
P.Washington	7/12	98
B.Thomas Jr.	3/9	40
J.Meyers	1/1	28
B.Strange	2/2	17
Q.Morris	1/1	7

Defense	TKL	INT
J.Lewis	4	1
F.Oluokun	7	0
V.Miller	7	0
A.Johnson	6	0

Denver Broncos

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
B.Nix	22/31	288	1	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
J.Coleman	10	39	3.9	1
J.Dobbins	10	36	3.6	0
P.Bryant	1	16	16.0	0
B.Nix	5	6	1.2	0
N.Adkins	1	6	6.0	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
J.Waddle	8/10	138	0
N.Adkins	3/3	32	1
T.Badie	2/3	28	0
T.Franklin	1/2	27	0
C.Sutton	3/4	25	0

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
A.Singleton	9	0	0
M.Roach	4	1	0
Q.Robinson	3	1	0
R.Moss	2	0	1