Packers
1-1
20
Jets
1-1
17
Final/OT
Pregame model pick
GB 54.1%
Correct · ATS win
- Model spread
- NYJ +1.5
- Model total
- 43.4
- ATS pick
- NYJ +6.5
- +5.1 pt edge
- Total pick
- Pass
- +0.9 pt edge
Model breakdown
Why the model likes GB
The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.
- Market priorhelps GB+4.9 pts · +14.3%
Opening line GB -6.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 1 game
- Rushing offensehurts GB-1.1 pts · -3.3%
NYJ +0.27 vs GB -0.99 EPA/rush (vs. league avg)
- Point differentialhurts GB-1.0 pts · -2.8%
NYJ +13.0 vs GB -17.0 per game
- Passing offensehurts GB-0.8 pts · -2.2%
NYJ +0.69 vs GB -0.08 EPA/dropback (vs. league avg)
- Pass defensehurts GB-0.7 pts · -1.9%
NYJ -0.78 vs GB -0.62 EPA/dropback allowed (vs. league avg)
- Run defensehelps GB+0.5 pts · +1.3%
NYJ +0.83 vs GB +0.08 EPA/rush allowed (vs. league avg)
- Home fieldhurts GB-0.4 pts · -1.2%
NYJ at home (1.7 pts)
Early-season sample (1 game), so the stats are shrunk toward average and the market carries more weight.
Model vs. market
GB win probability
- GameLens
- 54%
- Market
- 62%
- Difference
- -8%
Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.
Matchup Lens
The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.
- Edge: NYJSlight
NYJ third-down defense vs GB third-down offense
- GB third-down conversion rate
- 25% (20th)
- NYJ third-down rate allowed
- 33% (10th)
- Edge: GBSlight
GB big-play defense vs NYJ explosive plays
- NYJ explosive-play rate
- 11.3% (14th)
- GB explosive-play rate allowed
- 3.2% (3rd)
- Edge: NYJSlight
NYJ red-zone offense vs GB red-zone defense
- NYJ red-zone TD rate
- 67% (13th)
- GB red-zone TD rate allowed
- 100% (18th)
- Edge: NYJSlight
NYJ secondary vs GB passing attack
- GB EPA per dropback
- -0.05 (16th)
- NYJ EPA per dropback allowed
- -0.76 (5th)
Live win probability
Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.
Win probability
100.0% GB win probability
Key moments
Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.
Key moments
- clutchQ5 6:17
(Shotgun) J.Love pass short right to C.Brooks pushed ob at NYJ 37 for 15 yards (J.Brownlee).PENALTY on NYJ-J.Brownlee, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 37.
WPA -26.2%EPA +2.71 - clutchQ4 2:00
(Shotgun) B.Hall left guard to 50 for 1 yard (K.Brooks; L.Van Ness).
WPA -22.2%EPA -0.72 - clutchQ4 4:49
A.McNamara punts 51 yards to GB 18, Center-T.Hennessy. S.Moore pushed ob at NYJ 19 for 63 yards (A.Smith).
WPA -20.8% - clutchQ4 1:20
(Shotgun) B.Allen right guard to 50 for no gain (L.Van Ness).
WPA -17.9%EPA -3.83 - clutchQ5 7:29
K.Johnson left end pushed ob at GB 45 for 11 yards (A.Cisco).
WPA -12.7%EPA +0.79 - clutchQ4 12:35
M.Lloyd left tackle to GB 16 for 2 yards (K.Enagbare; D.Davis). FUMBLES (K.Enagbare), touched at GB 17, RECOVERED by NYJ-H.Phillips at GB 18.
WPA +12.1%EPA -5.31
Highlights
Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.
Highlights
Highlight clips post during and after the game.
Player props
Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.
Player props
Passing target maps
Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.
Target maps
33 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
37 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
Play-by-play
EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.
Play-by-play
Play-call model: 82/130 (63%) run/pass correct
- QOT 5:23GB20–17
END GAME
WPA (home)-4.1%Home WP0.0% - QOT 5:23GB1st & Goal at NYJ 8Score20–17
T.Smack 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.
- QOT 5:26GB1st & 8 at NYJ 817–17
Timeout #1 by NYJ at 05:26.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP4.1% - QOT 5:26GB1st & 8 at NYJ 817–17
Timeout #1 by GB at 05:26.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP4.1% - QOT 5:54GB1st & 10 at NYJ 2217–17
J.Love pass short left to M.Golden pushed ob at NYJ 8 for 14 yards (A.Cisco).
EPA+1.64WPA (home)-6.2%Home WP4.1%Yards14Air zoneshort leftTargetM.GoldenPredictedPass 55%✓correct - QOT 6:17GB2nd & 7 at GB 4817–17
(Shotgun) J.Love pass short right to C.Brooks pushed ob at NYJ 37 for 15 yards (J.Brownlee).PENALTY on NYJ-J.Brownlee, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 37.
EPA+2.71WPA (home)-26.2%Home WP10.3%Yards15Air zoneshort rightTargetC.BrooksPredictedPass 69%✓correct - QOT 6:55GB1st & 10 at GB 4517–17
K.Johnson left tackle to GB 48 for 3 yards (T.Sweat; J.Briggs).
EPA-0.33WPA (home)+4.4%Home WP36.5%Yards3PredictedPass 55%×incorrect - QOT 7:29GB1st & 10 at GB 3417–17
K.Johnson left end pushed ob at GB 45 for 11 yards (A.Cisco).
EPA+0.79WPA (home)-12.7%Home WP32.1%Yards11PredictedPass 55%×incorrect - QOT 7:29GB1st & 10 at GB 3417–17
Official Timeout at 07:29.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP44.8% - QOT 7:41NYJ4th & 18 at NYJ 2217–17
J.Sherwood reported in as eligible. A.McNamara punts 56 yards to GB 22, Center-T.Hennessy. S.Moore to GB 34 for 12 yards (T.Hennessy; T.Reeder). NYJ-A.Smith was injured during the play.
WPA (home)+8.1%Home WP44.8% - QOT 8:23NYJ3rd & 30 at NYJ 1017–17
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass short left to K.Sadiq to NYJ 22 for 12 yards (D.Dennis-Sutton; J.Bullard).
EPA-3.90WPA (home)+6.6%Home WP36.7%Yards12Air zoneshort leftTargetK.SadiqPredictedPass 81%✓correct - QOT 8:23NYJ3rd & 25 at NYJ 1517–17
(Shotgun) PENALTY on NYJ-I.Williams, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 15 - No Play.
WPA (home)-3.5%Home WP30.1% - QOT 9:12NYJ2nd & 16 at NYJ 2417–17
(Shotgun) G.Smith sacked at NYJ 15 for -9 yards (sack split by L.Van Ness and D.Dennis-Sutton).
EPA-1.84WPA (home)-9.1%Home WP33.6%PredictedPass 55%✓correct - QOT 9:54NYJ1st & 10 at NYJ 3017–17
G.Smith sacked at NYJ 24 for -6 yards (sack split by B.Sorrell and B.Cisse).
EPA-1.48WPA (home)-10.5%Home WP42.7%PredictedRun 60%×incorrect - QOT 10:00GB17–17
T.Smack kicks 60 yards from GB 35 to NYJ 5. I.Williams to NYJ 30 for 25 yards (I.McDuffie; E.Williams).
WPA (home)+3.2%Home WP53.2% - Q4 0:00NYJ17–17
END QUARTER 4
WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP50.0% - Q4 0:02GB4th & 10 at 5017–17
(Shotgun) J.Love sacked at GB 45 for -5 yards (K.Enagbare).
EPA-0.54WPA (home)+0.7%Home WP50.1%PredictedPass 97%✓correct - Q4 0:02GB4th & 10 at 5017–17
Timeout #2 by NYJ at 00:02.
WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP49.4% - Q4 0:02GB4th & 10 at 5017–17
Timeout #2 by GB at 00:02.
WPA (home)-0.4%Home WP49.5% - Q4 0:21GB4th & 5 at NYJ 4517–17
(Shotgun) PENALTY on GB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 45 - No Play. 10-second runoff.
WPA (home)-1.0%Home WP49.9% - Q4 1:05GB3rd & 10 at 5017–17
(Shotgun) J.Love pass short right to C.Watson to NYJ 45 for 5 yards (D.Belton).
EPA-0.22WPA (home)+9.4%Home WP50.9%Yards5Air zoneshort rightTargetC.WatsonPredictedPass 96%✓correct - Q4 1:11GB2nd & 10 at 5017–17
(Shotgun) J.Love pass incomplete deep right to M.Golden.
EPA-0.70WPA (home)+6.6%Home WP41.5%Yards0Air zonedeep rightTargetM.Golden (inc)PredictedPass 87%✓correct - Q4 1:11GB2nd & 10 at 5017–17
Timeout #1 by GB at 01:11.
WPA (home)+1.5%Home WP34.9% - Q4 1:15GB1st & 10 at 5017–17
(Shotgun) J.Love pass incomplete short middle to C.Watson.
EPA+2.89WPA (home)+11.6%Home WP33.4%Yards0Air zoneshort middleTargetC.Watson (inc)PredictedPass 79%✓correct - Q4 1:20NYJ4th & 1 at 5017–17
(Shotgun) B.Allen right guard to 50 for no gain (L.Van Ness).
EPA-3.83WPA (home)-17.9%Home WP21.8%Yards0PredictedPass 67%×incorrect - Q4 2:00NYJ3rd & 2 at NYJ 4917–17
(Shotgun) B.Hall left guard to 50 for 1 yard (K.Brooks; L.Van Ness).
EPA-0.72WPA (home)-22.2%Home WP39.7%Yards1PredictedRun 64%✓correct - Q4 2:00NYJ3rd & 2 at NYJ 4917–17
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)+2.7%Home WP61.9% - Q4 2:40NYJ2nd & 10 at NYJ 4117–17
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass short right to G.Wilson to NYJ 49 for 8 yards (L.Van Ness).
EPA+3.99WPA (home)+7.6%Home WP59.2%Yards8Air zoneshort rightTargetG.WilsonPredictedPass 55%✓correct - Q4 2:48NYJ1st & 10 at NYJ 4117–17
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to A.Mitchell (E.Williams).
EPA-0.72WPA (home)-7.7%Home WP51.6%Yards0Air zonedeep rightTargetA.Mitchell (inc)PredictedRun 60%×incorrect - Q4 2:54NYJ1st & 10 at NYJ 3017–17
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass short right to G.Wilson to NYJ 41 for 11 yards (K.Nixon).Penalty on GB-K.Nixon, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
EPA+0.79WPA (home)+4.3%Home WP59.3%Yards11Air zoneshort rightTargetG.WilsonPredictedRun 60%×incorrect
Box score
Box score
| Team stats | GB | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 199 | 285 |
| Yards / play | 4 | 4 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| 3rd down | 1-9 | 8-19 |
| Red zone | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Possession | 26:57 | 37:40 |
Green Bay Packers
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 J.Love | 16/29 | 145 | 2 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 L.Van Ness | 10 | 1.5 | 0 |
 E.Cooper | 8 | 1 | 0 |
 E.Williams | 10 | 0 | 0 |
 D.Dennis-Sutton | 6 | 0.5 | 0 |
New York Jets
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 G.Smith | 27/41 | 247 | 1 | 0 |
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 B.Hall | 16 | 29 | 1.8 | 0 |
| G.Smith | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
 I.Williams | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
 B.Allen | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall | 5/5 | 63 | 0 |
 A.Mitchell | 6/12 | 63 | 0 |
 G.Wilson | 5/7 | 57 | 1 |
| I.Williams | 6/6 | 34 | 0 |
 K.Sadiq | 2/3 | 17 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 J.Briggs | 4 | 1 | 0 |
 K.Enagbare | 3 | 1 | 0 |
 D.Bailey | 3 | 1 | 0 |
 D.Belton | 6 | 0 | 0 |
