TEN @ NYG

Titans

0-3

Giants

2-1

Final

Pregame model pick

NYG 56.3%

Correct

Low

Model spread: NYG -2
Model total: 43.9
ATS pick: Pass; -0.9 pt edge
Total pick: U 45.5; -1.6 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

TEN spread+2.5

TEN ML+114

Over37.5

NYG spread-2.5

NYG ML-135

Under37.5

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% NYG win probability

NYG aboveTEN below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

clutchQ4 0:24
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass short left intended for E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by J.Holland at NYG -4. Touchback.PENALTY on NYG-A.Carter, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 20.
WPA +68.1%EPA -5.90
clutchQ4 0:44
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass short left to E.Ayomanor to NYG 7 for 11 yards (J.Pinnock).
WPA -28.4%EPA +2.09
clutchQ4 0:50
(Run formation) PENALTY on NYG-T.Edmunds, Encroachment, 6 yards, enforced at NYG 24 - No Play.
WPA -14.3%
clutchQ4 2:16
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass short right to T.Pollard pushed ob at NYG 44 for 18 yards (T.Edmunds).
WPA -11.4%EPA +2.55
clutchQ4 0:50
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass incomplete short middle to W.Robinson (A.Reese).
WPA +10.2%EPA -0.71
clutchQ4 0:55
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass short left to W.Robinson pushed ob at NYG 24 for 9 yards (A.Phillips).
WPA -9.5%EPA +0.29

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Recaps
Tennessee Titans vs. New York Giants: Game Highlights
Defense
Giants recover Chimere Dike's fumble on opening kickoff
Touchdowns
Cam Ward puts Titans on the board with TD pass to Wan'Dale Robinson
Clutch
Jevon Holland picks off Cam Ward to seal the win for the Giants

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
Elic Ayomanor TEN	Receiving Yards	O 13.5(-2.0 from open)	22.3	72%	+19.8%	11Miss
Isaiah Likely NYG	Receptions	O 3.5	4.5	68%	+15.5%	2Miss
Darnell Mooney NYG	Receiving Yards	O 18.5	24.8	66%	+14.0%	20Hit
Tyjae Spears TEN	Rush + Rec Yards	O 31.5(-2.0 from open)	36.7	63%	+10.5%	5Miss
Tony Pollard TEN	Carries	U 14.5(+4.0 from open)	13.2	62%	+9.6%	17Miss
Isaiah Likely NYG	Receiving Yards	O 38.5(-4.0 from open)	44.2	62%	+9.2%	13Miss
Jameis Winston NYG	Completions	U 17.5(-1.0 from open)	16.2	61%	+8.3%	14Hit
Calvin Ridley TEN	Receiving Yards	O 15.5(+1.0 from open)	19.4	60%	+7.9%	0Miss
Malik Nabers NYG	Receiving Yards	U 55.5	48.7	60%	+7.3%	26Hit
Tyjae Spears TEN	Rushing Yards	O 16.5(-4.0 from open)	19.8	59%	+6.4%	5Miss
Najee Harris NYG	Rushing Yards	U 22.5(+4.0 from open)	19.2	59%	+6.3%	52Miss
Tyjae Spears TEN	Receiving Yards	O 11.5(+1.0 from open)	14.5	58%	+5.5%	0Miss
Tony Pollard TEN	Rush + Rec Yards	U 70.5(+9.0 from open)	63.5	58%	+5.5%	96Miss
Jameis Winston NYG	Passing Yards	U 203.5(-3.0 from open)	185	57%	+4.8%	118Hit
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN	Receiving Yards	U 31.5(+2.0 from open)	28.8	57%	+4.3%	57Miss
Tony Pollard TEN	Receiving Yards	U 7.5(+2.0 from open)	5	57%	+4.2%	22Miss
Malik Nabers NYG	Receptions	U 4.5	4.2	55%	+3.0%	5Miss
Carnell Tate TEN	Receiving Yards	U 40.5(-6.0 from open)	37.8	55%	+2.8%	58Miss
Tony Pollard TEN	Receptions	U 1.5	1.3	55%	+2.3%	4Miss
Darnell Mooney NYG	Receptions	O 1.5	1.7	55%	+2.3%	2Hit
Devin Singletary NYG	Receptions	O 1.5	1.7	55%	+2.3%	0Miss
Tyjae Spears TEN	Receptions	O 1.5	1.7	55%	+2.3%	0Miss
Cam Skattebo NYG	Receiving Yards	U 14.5(+2.0 from open)	12.8	54%	+2.0%	40Miss
Cam Ward TEN	Completions	U 17.5	17	54%	+1.7%	23Miss
Tony Pollard TEN	Rushing Yards	U 58.5(+8.0 from open)	55.5	54%	+1.7%	74Miss
Jameis Winston NYG	Passing TDs	U 0.5(-1.0 from open)	0.4	54%	+1.6%	0Hit
Devin Singletary NYG	Receiving Yards	O 6.5	8	54%	+1.6%	0Miss
Malachi Fields NYG	Receptions	U 2.5	2.3	54%	+1.3%	2Hit
Gunnar Helm TEN	Receptions	O 2.5	2.7	54%	+1.3%	2Miss
Cam Skattebo NYG	Receptions	U 2.5	2.3	54%	+1.3%	3Miss
Cam Skattebo NYG	Rush + Rec Yards	U 78.5(+4.0 from open)	75	54%	+1.2%	100Miss
Cam Ward TEN	Carries	O 3.5	3.7	53%	+0.7%	1Miss
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN	Receptions	U 3.5	3.3	53%	+0.7%	7Miss
Calvin Ridley TEN	Receptions	O 1.5	1.6	53%	+0.4%	0Miss
Malachi Fields NYG	Receiving Yards	O 24.5(+1.0 from open)	25.5	53%	+0.3%	19Miss
Tyjae Spears TEN	Carries	U 5.5(-1.0 from open)	5.3	52%	+0.1%	3Hit
Cam Ward TEN	Passing Yards	U 177.5(-12.0 from open)	172.2	52%	0.0%	181Miss
Jameis Winston NYG	Rushing Yards	U 5.5(-1.0 from open)	4.6	52%	0.0%	14Miss
Devin Singletary NYG	Rush + Rec Yards	O 21.5(-1.0 from open)	22.2	52%	-0.6%	0Miss
Cam Skattebo NYG	Carries	U 15.5	15.3	51%	-0.9%	20Miss
Cam Ward TEN	Rushing Yards	O 12.5(-1.0 from open)	13	51%	-1.1%	2Miss
Cam Skattebo NYG	Rushing Yards	U 59.5(+3.0 from open)	59.2	50%	-2.0%	60Miss
Cam Ward TEN	Passing TDs	O 0.5	0.5	50%	-2.4%	1Hit
Devin Singletary NYG	Rushing Yards	O 12.5	12.5	50%	-2.4%	0Miss
Gunnar Helm TEN	Receiving Yards	O 20.5(-3.0 from open)	20.5	50%	-2.4%	14Miss
Carnell Tate TEN	Receptions	O 3.5	3.5	50%	-2.4%	6Hit
Elic Ayomanor TEN	Receptions	O 1.5	1.5	50%	-2.4%	1Miss
Devin Singletary NYG	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Isaiah Likely NYG	Anytime TD	Yes	1	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Cam Ward TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	1	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Cam Skattebo NYG	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Elic Ayomanor TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Jameis Winston NYG	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Patrick Ricard NYG	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Calvin Ridley TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Najee Harris NYG	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Julius Chestnut TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Nicholas Singleton TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Braxton Berrios NYG	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Tony Pollard TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Darnell Mooney NYG	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Daniel Bellinger TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Tyjae Spears TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Theo Johnson NYG	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Chimere Dike TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Malik Nabers NYG	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Malachi Fields NYG	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Gunnar Helm TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Carnell Tate TEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Tennessee Titans

deep left10/1 · 0 yds

deep middle0—

deep right30/3 · 0 yds

short left137/13 · 69 yds

short middle42/4 · 13 yds

short right1614/16 · 99 yds

Line of scrimmage

37 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

New York Giants

deep left11/1 · 30 yds

deep middle0—

deep right10/1 · 0 yds

short left107/10 · 43 yds

short middle21/2 · 7 yds

short right75/7 · 38 yds

Line of scrimmage

21 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 82/117 (70%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00NYG7–12
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP100.0%
Q4 0:17NYG1st & 10 at NYG 107–12
J.Winston kneels to NYG 9 for -1 yards.
EPA+0.08
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 56%✓correct
Q4 0:24TEN1st & Goal at NYG 7Turnover7–12
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass short left intended for E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by J.Holland at NYG -4. Touchback.PENALTY on NYG-A.Carter, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 20.
EPA-5.90
WPA (home)+68.1%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-6
Air zoneshort left
TargetE.Ayomanor (inc)
PredictedPass 81%✓correct
Q4 0:24TEN1st & 7 at NYG 77–12
Timeout #3 by NYG at 00:24.
WPA (home)-4.6%
Home WP31.8%
Q4 0:44TEN2nd & 10 at NYG 187–12
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass short left to E.Ayomanor to NYG 7 for 11 yards (J.Pinnock).
EPA+2.09
WPA (home)-28.4%
Home WP36.5%
Yards11
Air zoneshort left
TargetE.Ayomanor
PredictedPass 88%✓correct
Q4 0:50TEN1st & 10 at NYG 187–12
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass incomplete short middle to W.Robinson (A.Reese).
EPA-0.71
WPA (home)+10.2%
Home WP64.9%
Yards0
Air zoneshort middle
TargetW.Robinson (inc)
PredictedPass 81%✓correct
Q4 0:50TEN4th & 1 at NYG 247–12
(Run formation) PENALTY on NYG-T.Edmunds, Encroachment, 6 yards, enforced at NYG 24 - No Play.
WPA (home)-14.3%
Home WP54.8%
Q4 0:55TEN3rd & 10 at NYG 337–12
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass short left to W.Robinson pushed ob at NYG 24 for 9 yards (A.Phillips).
EPA+0.29
WPA (home)-9.5%
Home WP69.1%
Yards9
Air zoneshort left
TargetW.Robinson
PredictedPass 96%✓correct
Q4 0:59TEN2nd & 10 at NYG 337–12
(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Ward pass incomplete deep right to C.Tate.
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)+8.0%
Home WP78.6%
Yards0
Air zonedeep right
TargetC.Tate (inc)
PredictedPass 88%✓correct
Q4 1:20TEN1st & 10 at NYG 337–12
(No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Spears right tackle to NYG 33 for no gain (C.Golston).
EPA-0.71
WPA (home)+8.4%
Home WP70.6%
Yards0
PredictedPass 81%×incorrect
Q4 1:44TEN3rd & 1 at NYG 357–12
C.Ward up the middle to NYG 33 for 2 yards (A.Reese).
EPA+1.06
WPA (home)+0.8%
Home WP62.2%
Yards2
PredictedPass 77%×incorrect
Q4 2:00TEN2nd & 7 at NYG 417–12
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass short right to C.Tate to NYG 34 for 7 yards (C.Hood).The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) C.Ward pass short right to C.Tate to NYG 35 for 6 yards (C.Hood). ** Injury Update: TEN-T.Spears has returned to the game. 10-second runoff.
EPA+0.06
WPA (home)-6.2%
Home WP61.4%
Yards6
Air zoneshort right
TargetC.Tate
PredictedPass 71%✓correct
Q4 2:00TEN2nd & 6 at NYG 407–12
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)-1.7%
Home WP67.6%
Q4 2:08TEN1st & 10 at NYG 447–12
(Shotgun) T.Pollard left tackle to NYG 41 for 3 yards (A.Reese).
EPA+2.67
WPA (home)+1.6%
Home WP69.3%
Yards3
PredictedPass 58%×incorrect
Q4 2:16TEN3rd & 7 at TEN 387–12
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass short right to T.Pollard pushed ob at NYG 44 for 18 yards (T.Edmunds).
EPA+2.55
WPA (home)-11.4%
Home WP67.7%
Yards18
Air zoneshort right
TargetT.Pollard
PredictedPass 89%✓correct
Q4 2:22TEN2nd & 7 at TEN 387–12
(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Ward pass incomplete short left to E.Ayomanor (G.Newsome).
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)+4.1%
Home WP79.1%
Yards0
Air zoneshort left
TargetE.Ayomanor (inc)
PredictedPass 71%✓correct
Q4 2:43TEN1st & 10 at TEN 357–12
(No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Pollard left tackle to TEN 38 for 3 yards (D.Reader).
EPA-0.33
WPA (home)+1.3%
Home WP75.1%
Yards3
PredictedPass 58%×incorrect
Q4 3:03TEN1st & 10 at TEN 237–12
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass short right to W.Robinson to TEN 35 for 12 yards (A.Phillips). ** Injury Update: NYG-C.Hood has returned to the game.
EPA+0.86
WPA (home)-2.5%
Home WP73.8%
Yards12
Air zoneshort right
TargetW.Robinson
PredictedPass 58%✓correct
Q4 3:03TEN1st & 10 at TEN 247–12
Official Timeout at 03:03.
WPA (home)-0.3%
Home WP76.3%
Q4 3:12NYG4th & 9 at TEN 467–12
J.Stout punts 38 yards to TEN 8, Center-B.Mann, fair catch by C.Dike.PENALTY on NYG-E.Campbell, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 8.
WPA (home)-2.9%
Home WP76.6%
Q4 3:12NYG4th & 5 at TEN 417–12
(Run formation) PENALTY on NYG, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 41 - No Play.
WPA (home)-0.4%
Home WP79.5%
Q4 3:16NYG3rd & 5 at TEN 417–12
(Shotgun) J.Winston pass incomplete short right to M.Nabers (J.Franklin-Myers).
EPA-0.85
WPA (home)-9.1%
Home WP79.9%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetM.Nabers (inc)
PredictedPass 62%✓correct
Q4 3:16NYG3rd & 3 at TEN 407–12
Timeout #2 by NYG at 03:16.
WPA (home)+3.1%
Home WP89.0%
Q4 4:00NYG2nd & 6 at TEN 427–12
C.Skattebo up the middle to TEN 41 for 1 yard (C.Barton; J.Simmons).
EPA+2.49
WPA (home)-1.2%
Home WP85.9%
Yards1
PredictedRun 76%✓correct
Q4 4:43NYG1st & 10 at TEN 467–12
C.Skattebo left guard to TEN 42 for 4 yards (A.Hill).
EPA-0.21
WPA (home)-0.2%
Home WP87.1%
Yards4
PredictedRun 79%✓correct
Q4 5:31NYG1st & 10 at NYG 427–12
J.Winston pass short right to M.Nabers to TEN 46 for 12 yards (C.Flott).
EPA+0.86
WPA (home)+2.6%
Home WP87.2%
Yards12
Air zoneshort right
TargetM.Nabers
PredictedRun 61%×incorrect
Q4 5:35TEN7–12
J.Slye kicks 65 yards from TEN 35 to NYG 0. B.Berrios pushed ob at NYG 27 for 27 yards (T.Adams).PENALTY on TEN-J.Williams, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 27.
WPA (home)+3.7%
Home WP84.6%
Q4 5:35TEN & Goal at NYG 157–12
Official Timeout at 05:35.
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP80.9%
Q4 5:35TEN3rd & Goal at NYG 4Score7–12
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass short right to W.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG-C.Hood was injured during the play. J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Cox, Holder-T.Townsend.
EPA+1.97
WPA (home)-7.6%
Home WP81.1%
Yards4
Air zoneshort right
TargetW.Robinson
PredictedPass 78%✓correct
Q4 6:23TEN2nd & Goal at NYG 50–12
(Shotgun) Direct snap to T.Pollard. T.Pollard left tackle to NYG 4 for 1 yard (C.Golston).
EPA-0.57
WPA (home)+3.1%
Home WP88.6%
Yards1
PredictedPass 71%×incorrect

Box score

Team stats	TEN	NYG
Total yards	262	238
Yards / play	4.6	4.1
Turnovers	2	0
3rd down	5-13	4-13
Red zone	1-3	0-2
Possession	25:34	34:26

Tennessee Titans

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
C.Ward	23/36	181	1	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
T.Pollard	17	74	4.4
T.Spears	3	5	1.7
C.Ward	1	2	2.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
C.Tate	6/9	58	0
W.Robinson	7/11	57	1
T.Pollard	4/4	22	0
D.Bellinger	2/2	16	0
G.Helm	2/4	14	0

Defense	TKL	SACK
J.Simmons	10	1
A.Taylor	4	1
A.Hill Jr.	8	0
K.Faulk	3	1

New York Giants

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
J.Winston	14/22	118	0	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
C.Skattebo	20	60	3.0
N.Harris	9	52	5.8
J.Winston	2	14	7.0
D.Mooney	1	9	9.0
T.Tracy Jr.	1	3	3.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS
C.Skattebo	3/4	40
M.Nabers	5/6	26
D.Mooney	2/3	20
M.Fields	2/2	19
I.Likely	2/5	13

Defense	TKL	INT
A.Reese	13	0
D.Phillips	11	0
T.Edmunds	10	0
J.Holland	2	1

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Tennessee Titans

New York Giants