BAL @ DAL

Ravens

2-1

Cowboys

1-2

Final

Pregame model pick

BAL 58.8%

Correct

Low

Model spread: DAL +3
Model total: 52.0
ATS pick: Pass; -0.5 pt edge
Total pick: Pass; -0.5 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

BAL spread-3

BAL ML-162

Over54.5

DAL spread+3

DAL ML+136

Under54.5

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% BAL win probability

DAL aboveBAL below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

clutchQ4 0:00
T.Loop 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.
WPA -48.6%
clutchQ4 0:28
(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to C.Lamb (N.Wiggins).PENALTY on BLT-N.Wiggins, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at BLT 22 - No Play.
WPA +35.7%
clutchQ4 1:54
(Shotgun) L.Jackson pass short left to Z.Flowers to DAL 2 for 14 yards (D.Winters).
WPA -27.5%EPA +2.09
clutchQ4 1:30
L.Jackson pass short middle to M.Hibner for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.
WPA -18.1%EPA +1.72
clutchQ4 1:14
(No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short left to R.Flournoy pushed ob at BLT 29 for 9 yards (C.Rivers) [T.Hendrickson].
WPA +14.4%EPA +0.43
defenseQ3 10:40
(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short middle to J.Ferguson to BLT 24 for -1 yards (T.Jones). FUMBLES (T.Jones), RECOVERED by BLT-T.Simpson at BLT 25.The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
WPA -13.6%EPA -10.00

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Big plays
Ravens take down Cowboys in instant classic in Rio de Janeiro
Big plays
Javonte Williams powers across the goal line to pad the Cowboys' lead
Touchdowns
Derrick Henry takes the direct snap for a TD
Touchdowns
Derrick Henry cuts outside for 2nd rushing TD
Big plays
Lamar Jackson finds Chris Moore to pad the Ravens' lead
Touchdowns
Jake Ferguson hauls in the dime from Dak Prescott for a Cowboys TD

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
Zay Flowers BAL	Receiving Yards	O 46.5(-29.0 from open)	67.2	80%	+27.6%	84Hit
Dak Prescott DAL	Passing TDs	O 1.5	2	64%	+11.5%	1Miss
George Pickens DAL	Receiving Yards	U 68.5(+11.0 from open)	57	63%	+10.7%	82Miss
Chris Moore BAL	Receiving Yards	O 16.5(-3.0 from open)	20.8	61%	+9.0%	4Miss
Javonte Williams DAL	Receptions	O 2.5(-1.0 from open)	3	61%	+8.4%	2Miss
Javonte Williams DAL	Rushing Yards	U 57.5(-1.0 from open)	50.2	60%	+7.7%	98Miss
Javonte Williams DAL	Receiving Yards	O 14.5(-2.0 from open)	18.2	60%	+7.3%	5Miss
Javonte Williams DAL	Carries	U 14.5	13.7	58%	+5.1%	19Miss
Derrick Henry BAL	Receiving Yards	O 10.5(+1.0 from open)	13.3	57%	+5.1%	0Miss
Justice Hill BAL	Receptions	U 2.5	2.2	57%	+4.9%	0Hit
Ryan Flournoy DAL	Receiving Yards	U 30.5	27.8	57%	+4.5%	22Hit
Dak Prescott DAL	Rushing Yards	O 12.5	15	57%	+4.2%	19Hit
Zay Flowers BAL	Receptions	O 3.5(-2.0 from open)	3.8	56%	+3.1%	5Hit
Javonte Williams DAL	Rush + Rec Yards	U 76.5(-3.0 from open)	71.3	55%	+3.0%	103Miss
George Pickens DAL	Receptions	U 5.5	5.2	55%	+2.5%	7Miss
Lamar Jackson BAL	Passing TDs	U 1.5	1.3	55%	+2.3%	2Miss
Chris Moore BAL	Receptions	U 1.5	1.3	55%	+2.3%	1Hit
Derrick Henry BAL	Receptions	O 1.5	1.7	55%	+2.3%	1Miss
Lamar Jackson BAL	Carries	U 6.5	6.2	55%	+2.1%	6Hit
Dak Prescott DAL	Passing Yards	U 271.5(+5.0 from open)	256.7	54%	+2.0%	276Miss
Derrick Henry BAL	Rushing Yards	O 91.5(+12.0 from open)	96.3	54%	+1.8%	89Miss
Lamar Jackson BAL	Passing Yards	O 241.5(+8.0 from open)	254.2	54%	+1.8%	186Miss
Derrick Henry BAL	Rush + Rec Yards	O 108.5(+2.0 from open)	114	54%	+1.6%	89Miss
CeeDee Lamb DAL	Receiving Yards	O 85.5(-2.0 from open)	89.8	54%	+1.6%	112Hit
Derrick Henry BAL	Carries	O 18.5	19	54%	+1.6%	26Hit
Jake Ferguson DAL	Receiving Yards	U 28.5	27.2	54%	+1.1%	23Hit
Dak Prescott DAL	Completions	U 25.5	25	53%	+1.0%	25Hit
Derrick Henry BAL	Anytime TD	Yes	2	53%	+0.9%	2Hit
CeeDee Lamb DAL	Anytime TD	Yes	1.5	53%	+0.9%	0Miss
Justice Hill BAL	Receiving Yards	U 14.5(+1.0 from open)	13.3	53%	+0.7%	0Hit
Dak Prescott DAL	Carries	U 3.5	3.3	53%	+0.7%	4Miss
Jake Ferguson DAL	Receptions	U 3.5	3.3	53%	+0.7%	3Hit
Mark Andrews BAL	Receptions	O 4.5	4.7	53%	+0.3%	3Miss
Justice Hill BAL	Rushing Yards	U 14.5(+1.0 from open)	13.7	52%	-0.2%	33Miss
Mark Andrews BAL	Receiving Yards	O 45.5(+1.0 from open)	46.7	52%	-0.4%	24Miss
LaJohntay Wester BAL	Receiving Yards	O 12.5(-8.0 from open)	13.2	52%	-0.6%	0Miss
Lamar Jackson BAL	Completions	U 19.5	19.3	51%	-1.1%	15Hit
Emari Demercado DAL	Rushing Yards	U 8.5(+1.0 from open)	8.2	51%	-1.5%	0Hit
Lamar Jackson BAL	Rushing Yards	U 37.5	37.3	50%	-2.0%	50Miss
Rashod Bateman BAL	Receiving Yards	O 43.5(-4.0 from open)	43.7	50%	-2.1%	37Miss
CeeDee Lamb DAL	Receptions	O 6.5	6.5	50%	-2.4%	7Hit
Rashod Bateman BAL	Receptions	O 3.5	3.5	50%	-2.4%	2Miss
LaJohntay Wester BAL	Receptions	O 1.5(-1.0 from open)	1.5	50%	-2.4%	0Miss
Ryan Flournoy DAL	Receptions	O 3.5	3.5	50%	-2.4%	2Miss
Zay Flowers BAL	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Lamar Jackson BAL	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Jake Ferguson DAL	Anytime TD	Yes	1	37%	-15.7%	1Hit
Rashod Bateman BAL	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Javonte Williams DAL	Anytime TD	Yes	1	37%	-15.7%	1Hit
Luke Schoonmaker DAL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Jonathan Mingo DAL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Matthew Hibner BAL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	1Hit
Devontez Walker BAL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Chris Moore BAL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Dak Prescott DAL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Durham Smythe BAL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Mark Andrews BAL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
KaVontae Turpin DAL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Justice Hill BAL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Brevyn Spann-Ford DAL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Emari Demercado DAL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Hunter Luepke DAL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
George Pickens DAL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Rasheen Ali BAL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
LaJohntay Wester BAL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Ryan Flournoy DAL	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Baltimore Ravens

deep left31/3 · 31 yds

deep middle21/2 · 27 yds

deep right10/1 · 0 yds

short left64/6 · 41 yds

short middle54/5 · 47 yds

short right65/6 · 40 yds

Line of scrimmage

23 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Dallas Cowboys

deep left21/2 · 49 yds

deep middle10/1 · 0 yds

deep right31/3 · 19 yds

short left1510/15 · 86 yds

short middle53/5 · 26 yds

short right1610/16 · 98 yds

Line of scrimmage

42 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 74/129 (57%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00BAL34–31
END GAME
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.0%
Q4 0:00BAL1st & 10 at DAL 38Score34–31
T.Loop 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.
WPA (home)-48.6%
Home WP0.0%
Q4 0:01BAL1st & 10 at DAL 3931–31
Timeout #3 by BLT at 00:01.
WPA (home)+0.2%
Home WP48.6%
Q4 0:07BAL1st & 10 at BAL 3531–31
(Shotgun) L.Jackson pass deep middle to Z.Flowers to DAL 38 for 27 yards (R.Steward).
EPA+4.68
WPA (home)-2.9%
Home WP48.4%
Yards27
Air zonedeep middle
TargetZ.Flowers
PredictedPass 72%✓correct
Q4 0:07DAL31–31
B.Aubrey kicks 65 yards from DAL 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BLT 35.
WPA (home)-2.7%
Home WP51.4%
Q4 0:07DAL4th & Goal at BAL 5Score31–31
B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Sieg, Holder-B.Anger.
WPA (home)+12.6%
Home WP54.1%
Q4 0:14DAL3rd & Goal at BAL 531–28
D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to G.Pickens.
EPA-1.90
WPA (home)-13.3%
Home WP41.5%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetG.Pickens (inc)
PredictedPass 96%✓correct
Q4 0:14DAL3rd & 5 at BAL 531–28
Timeout #3 by DAL at 00:14.
WPA (home)-4.0%
Home WP54.8%
Q4 0:20DAL2nd & Goal at BAL 731–28
(Shotgun) D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to BLT 5 for 2 yards (R.Smith). DAL-T.Steele was injured during the play.
EPA-0.09
WPA (home)-5.2%
Home WP58.9%
Yards2
PredictedPass 88%×incorrect
Q4 0:20DAL2nd & Goal at BAL 231–28
PENALTY on DAL-L.Schoonmaker, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 2 - No Play.
WPA (home)-9.3%
Home WP64.1%
Q4 0:23DAL1st & Goal at BAL 231–28
D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to G.Pickens (N.Wiggins).
EPA-0.49
WPA (home)-4.1%
Home WP73.4%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetG.Pickens (inc)
PredictedPass 70%✓correct
Q4 0:28DAL1st & 10 at BAL 2231–28
(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to C.Lamb (N.Wiggins).PENALTY on BLT-N.Wiggins, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at BLT 22 - No Play.
WPA (home)+35.7%
Home WP77.5%
Air zonedeep right
TargetC.Lamb
Q4 0:28DAL1st & 10 at BAL 2231–28
Timeout #2 by BLT at 00:28.
WPA (home)-5.9%
Home WP41.9%
Q4 1:09DAL2nd & 1 at BAL 2931–28
(Shotgun) D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to BLT 22 for 7 yards (M.Starks).
EPA+2.31
WPA (home)-4.0%
Home WP47.8%
Yards7
PredictedPass 73%×incorrect
Q4 1:14DAL1st & 10 at BAL 3831–28
(No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short left to R.Flournoy pushed ob at BLT 29 for 9 yards (C.Rivers) [T.Hendrickson].
EPA+0.43
WPA (home)+14.4%
Home WP51.8%
Yards9
Air zoneshort left
TargetR.Flournoy
PredictedPass 80%✓correct
Q4 1:20DAL2nd & 10 at DAL 4831–28
(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short right to C.Lamb pushed ob at BLT 38 for 14 yards (M.Starks).
EPA+1.72
WPA (home)+13.0%
Home WP37.4%
Yards14
Air zoneshort right
TargetC.Lamb
PredictedPass 88%✓correct
Q4 1:24DAL1st & 10 at DAL 4831–28
(No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to G.Pickens.
EPA-0.71
WPA (home)-6.1%
Home WP24.4%
Yards0
Air zoneshort left
TargetG.Pickens (inc)
PredictedPass 80%✓correct
Q4 1:30DAL1st & 10 at DAL 3531–28
(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short left to R.Flournoy pushed ob at DAL 48 for 13 yards (J.Hawkins).
EPA+0.94
WPA (home)+6.7%
Home WP30.5%
Yards13
Air zoneshort left
TargetR.Flournoy
PredictedPass 80%✓correct
Q4 1:30BAL31–28
T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BLT 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DAL 35.
WPA (home)+6.4%
Home WP23.9%
Q4 1:30BAL3rd & Goal at DAL 2Score31–28
L.Jackson pass short middle to M.Hibner for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.
EPA+1.72
WPA (home)-18.1%
Home WP17.5%
Yards2
Air zoneshort middle
TargetM.Hibner
PredictedRun 71%×incorrect
Q4 1:38BAL2nd & Goal at DAL 224–28
(Shotgun) L.Jackson pass incomplete short left to R.Bateman.
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)+3.4%
Home WP35.6%
Yards0
Air zoneshort left
TargetR.Bateman (inc)
PredictedPass 57%✓correct
Q4 1:38BAL2nd & 2 at DAL 224–28
Timeout #2 by DAL at 01:38.
WPA (home)-0.9%
Home WP32.3%
Q4 1:43BAL1st & Goal at DAL 224–28
E.Jones reported in as eligible. D.Henry right tackle to DAL 2 for no gain (C.Carson; L.Overton).
EPA-0.35
WPA (home)+1.0%
Home WP33.2%
Yards0
PredictedPass 67%×incorrect
Q4 1:47BAL1st & Goal at DAL 724–28
(Shotgun) L.Jackson pass incomplete short left [R.Gary].PENALTY on DAL-M.Bell, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 7 - No Play.
WPA (home)-8.9%
Home WP32.2%
Q4 1:47BAL1st & Goal at DAL 224–28
(Shotgun) E.Jones reported in as eligible. PENALTY on BLT-J.Simpson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 2 - No Play.
WPA (home)+8.9%
Home WP41.1%
Q4 1:47BAL1st & 2 at DAL 224–28
Timeout #1 by DAL at 01:47.
WPA (home)-1.0%
Home WP32.2%
Q4 1:54BAL2nd & 10 at DAL 1624–28
(Shotgun) L.Jackson pass short left to Z.Flowers to DAL 2 for 14 yards (D.Winters).
EPA+2.09
WPA (home)-27.5%
Home WP33.2%
Yards14
Air zoneshort left
TargetZ.Flowers
PredictedPass 86%✓correct
Q4 2:00BAL1st & 10 at DAL 1624–28
(Shotgun) L.Jackson left end pushed ob at DAL 16 for no gain (D.Winters). ** Injury Update: DAL-D.Ezeiruaku has returned to the game.
EPA-0.71
WPA (home)+10.7%
Home WP60.7%
Yards0
PredictedPass 53%×incorrect
Q4 2:00BAL1st & 10 at DAL 1624–28
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)-1.4%
Home WP50.0%
Q4 2:36BAL2nd & 7 at DAL 3024–28
(Shotgun) L.Jackson pass short middle to Z.Flowers to DAL 16 for 14 yards (A.Clark).
EPA+2.71
WPA (home)-11.7%
Home WP51.4%
Yards14
Air zoneshort middle
TargetZ.Flowers
PredictedPass 67%✓correct

Box score

Team stats	BAL	DAL
Total yards	378	415
Yards / play	6.5	5.8
Turnovers	0	1
3rd down	3-9	5-13
Red zone	4-6	3-5
Possession	29:22	30:38

Baltimore Ravens

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
L.Jackson	15/20	186	2	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
D.Henry	26	89	3.4	2
L.Jackson	6	50	8.3	0
J.Hill	5	33	6.6	0
Z.Flowers	1	20	20.0	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
Z.Flowers	5/6	84	0
R.Bateman	2/3	37	0
M.Andrews	3/5	24	0
M.Hibner	2/2	23	1
J.Cuevas	1/1	14	0

Defense	TKL	SACK
R.Smith	9	1
J.Hawkins	8	0
K.Hamilton	8	0
T.Simpson	7	0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
D.Prescott	25/40	276	1	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
J.Williams	19	98	5.2	1
T.Goodson	6	22	3.7	0
D.Prescott	4	19	4.8	0
K.Turpin	1	9	9.0	1

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
C.Lamb	7/8	112	0
G.Pickens	7/11	82	0
J.Ferguson	3/5	23	1
R.Flournoy	2/8	22	0
B.Spann-Ford	1/1	19	0

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
M.Bell	8	0	0
D.Winters	7	0	0
J.Barham	7	0	0
O.Ogbonnia	6	0	0

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Dallas Cowboys