LAC @ BUF

Chargers

0-3

Bills

3-0

Final

Pregame model pick

BUF 63.9%

Correct · ATS win

Low

Model spread: BUF -5
Model total: 49.9
ATS pick: BUF -2.5; +2.3 pt edge
Total pick: Pass; +1.4 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

LAC spread+7

LAC ML+275

Over50.5

BUF spread-7

BUF ML-345

Under50.5

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% BUF win probability

BUF aboveLAC below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

clutchQ4 13:38
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by C.Gardner-Johnson at BUF 1. C.Gardner-Johnson to BUF 42 for 41 yards (J.Alt).
WPA +18.9%EPA -10.00
clutchQ4 11:15
(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [J.Eboigbe].PENALTY on BUF-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 14.
WPA +16.6%EPA +3.41
clutchQ4 9:36
(Shotgun) J.Allen scrambles right end to LAC 32 for 8 yards (A.Mesidor; C.Hart). FUMBLES (A.Mesidor), RECOVERED by LAC-T.Tuipulotu at LAC 27.PENALTY on LAC-R.Shelley, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 40 - No Play.The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) J.Allen scrambles right end to LAC 32 for 8 yards (C.Hart; A.Mesidor).PENALTY on LAC-R.Shelley, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 32.
WPA +13.9%
clutchQ4 15:00
(Shotgun) J.Allen sacked at BUF 28 for -6 yards (K.Mack).Los Angeles Chargers challenged the passer was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) J.Allen sacked at BUF 28 for -6 yards (K.Mack). FUMBLES (K.Mack) [K.Mack], RECOVERED by LAC-D.Henley at BUF 28. Fumble Forced by 0-D.Henley.
WPA -12.6%EPA -4.45
touchdownQ2 0:16
J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on LAC-T.Tart, Defensive Offside, declined. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.
WPA +9.5%EPA +0.42
clutchQ4 10:00
(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to R.Davis to LAC 30 for no gain (D.James).PENALTY on BUF-A.Anderson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 30 - No Play.
WPA -8.1%

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Recaps
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills: Game Highlights
Touchdowns
Keaton Mitchell puts Chargers on the board with TD catch
Defense
Josh Allen throws INT as Bills commit second turnover
Touchdowns
Josh Allen mashes into the end zone for a Bills TD
Big plays
Josh Allen's QB sneak give the Bills the lead
Clutch
James Cook III's late TD seals Bills' win

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
Dalton Kincaid BUF	Receiving Yards	O 57.5(+1.0 from open)	75.8	74%	+21.4%	38Miss
Keon Coleman BUF	Receptions	O 1.5	2.2	68%	+15.8%	1Miss
Quentin Johnston LAC	Receiving Yards	U 37.5(+2.0 from open)	29	67%	+15.1%	40Miss
Keon Coleman BUF	Receiving Yards	O 15.5(+1.0 from open)	21	64%	+11.9%	37Hit
Quentin Johnston LAC	Receptions	U 3.5	2.8	62%	+9.8%	3Hit
Justin Herbert LAC	Completions	U 20.5	19	61%	+8.9%	20Hit
Josh Allen BUF	Carries	O 7.5	8.3	60%	+8.0%	8Hit
Josh Allen BUF	Rushing Yards	O 33.5(-2.0 from open)	37.7	60%	+7.4%	22Miss
Josh Allen BUF	Passing TDs	O 1.5	1.8	59%	+7.0%	0Miss
Oronde Gadsden LAC	Receptions	U 3.5	3	59%	+6.8%	0Hit
Oronde Gadsden LAC	Receiving Yards	U 37.5(+1.0 from open)	33.3	59%	+6.4%	0Hit
Dalton Kincaid BUF	Receptions	O 4.5	5	58%	+5.7%	2Miss
DJ Moore BUF	Receptions	U 3.5	3.2	56%	+3.8%	6Miss
Omarion Hampton LAC	Carries	O 15.5	16.2	56%	+3.5%	15Miss
Josh Allen BUF	Passing Yards	O 239.5	256.7	56%	+3.3%	204Miss
James Cook III BUF	Rushing Yards	O 81.5(-1.0 from open)	86.3	55%	+2.3%	154Hit
Justin Herbert LAC	Passing TDs	U 1.5	1.3	55%	+2.3%	1Hit
James Cook III BUF	Receptions	O 1.5	1.7	55%	+2.3%	0Miss
Omarion Hampton LAC	Receptions	U 1.5	1.3	55%	+2.3%	0Hit
Omarion Hampton LAC	Rushing Yards	O 58.5	61.8	55%	+2.1%	56Miss
Tre' Harris LAC	Receiving Yards	O 31.5(-2.0 from open)	33.2	54%	+1.8%	76Hit
Tre' Harris LAC	Receptions	U 2.5	2.3	54%	+1.3%	6Miss
Justin Herbert LAC	Rushing Yards	U 19.5	18.2	54%	+1.1%	17Hit
Justin Herbert LAC	Passing Yards	U 230.5(+12.0 from open)	220.5	53%	+1.1%	226Hit
Josh Allen BUF	Anytime TD	Yes	2	53%	+0.9%	2Hit
Joshua Palmer BUF	Anytime TD	Yes	1	53%	+0.9%	0Miss
Omarion Hampton LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	1	53%	+0.9%	0Miss
Dawson Knox BUF	Receiving Yards	U 9.5	8.3	53%	+0.7%	5Hit
James Cook III BUF	Receiving Yards	U 11.5	10.3	53%	+0.7%	0Hit
Justin Herbert LAC	Carries	O 3.5(-1.0 from open)	3.7	53%	+0.7%	4Hit
Ladd McConkey LAC	Receptions	U 4.5	4.3	53%	+0.3%	4Hit
Keaton Mitchell LAC	Rushing Yards	O 14.5	15.2	52%	-0.6%	52Hit
Omarion Hampton LAC	Rush + Rec Yards	O 74.5(+1.0 from open)	76	52%	-0.8%	56Miss
James Cook III BUF	Carries	U 17.5	17.3	51%	-1.0%	24Miss
Josh Allen BUF	Completions	U 20.5	20.3	51%	-1.1%	16Hit
James Cook III BUF	Rush + Rec Yards	O 99.5(+3.0 from open)	101	51%	-1.2%	154Hit
Khalil Shakir BUF	Receiving Yards	O 42.5(+3.0 from open)	43	51%	-1.5%	6Miss
Omarion Hampton LAC	Receiving Yards	U 11.5	11.2	51%	-1.5%	0Hit
Ladd McConkey LAC	Receiving Yards	U 60.5(+6.0 from open)	59.8	51%	-1.5%	66Miss
DJ Moore BUF	Receiving Yards	O 48.5(-1.0 from open)	49	51%	-1.6%	67Hit
Dawson Knox BUF	Receptions	O 1.5	1.5	50%	-2.4%	1Miss
Khalil Shakir BUF	Receptions	O 3.5(-1.0 from open)	3.5	50%	-2.4%	1Miss
DJ Moore BUF	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Dawson Knox BUF	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
James Cook III BUF	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	1Hit
Dalton Kincaid BUF	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Oronde Gadsden LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Ladd McConkey LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Alec Ingold LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Kimani Vidal LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Brenen Thompson LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Greg Dortch BUF	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Justin Herbert LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Derius Davis LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Khalil Shakir BUF	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Quentin Johnston LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Ray Davis BUF	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Keaton Mitchell LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Keon Coleman BUF	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Tre' Harris LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Keleki Latu BUF	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Los Angeles Chargers

deep left31/3 · 19 yds

deep middle10/1 · 0 yds

deep right73/7 · 81 yds

short left84/8 · 40 yds

short middle22/2 · -5 yds

short right1510/15 · 91 yds

Line of scrimmage

36 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Buffalo Bills

deep left20/2 · 0 yds

deep middle20/2 · 0 yds

deep right11/1 · 37 yds

short left97/9 · 64 yds

short middle85/8 · 33 yds

short right53/5 · 26 yds

Line of scrimmage

27 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 81/126 (64%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00BUF16–24
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP100.0%
Q4 0:31BUF1st & 10 at LAC 3216–24
J.Allen kneels to LAC 33 for -1 yards.
EPA-4.10
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 61%✓correct
Q4 1:06BUF3rd & 6 at LAC 4116–24
J.Cook left guard to LAC 32 for 9 yards (R.Mickens).
EPA+1.84
WPA (home)+0.2%
Home WP99.9%
Yards9
PredictedPass 80%×incorrect
Q4 1:06BUF3rd & 6 at LAC 4116–24
Timeout #1 by BUF at 01:06.
WPA (home)+0.5%
Home WP99.7%
Q4 1:50BUF2nd & 8 at LAC 4316–24
J.Cook left guard to LAC 41 for 2 yards (C.Hart).
EPA+2.51
WPA (home)-0.3%
Home WP99.3%
Yards2
PredictedPass 54%×incorrect
Q4 1:50BUF2nd & 8 at LAC 4316–24
Timeout #3 by LAC at 01:50.
WPA (home)+0.4%
Home WP99.6%
Q4 1:55BUF1st & 10 at LAC 4516–24
J.Cook right guard to LAC 43 for 2 yards (D.James; K.Mack).
EPA+2.64
WPA (home)-0.7%
Home WP99.2%
Yards2
PredictedRun 61%✓correct
Q4 1:56LAC16–24
C.Dicker kicks onside 10 yards from LAC 35 to LAC 45. K.Coleman (didn't try to advance) to LAC 45 for no gain.
WPA (home)+0.9%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 1:56LAC4th & 7 at BUF 15Score16–24
C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Harris, Holder-J.Scott.
WPA (home)+0.7%
Home WP99.0%
Q4 1:59LAC4th & 7 at BUF 1513–24
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)+0.2%
Home WP98.3%
Q4 2:06LAC3rd & 7 at BUF 1513–24
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to O.Gadsden.
EPA+0.23
WPA (home)+1.1%
Home WP98.1%
Yards0
Air zoneshort left
TargetO.Gadsden (inc)
PredictedPass 92%✓correct
Q4 2:10LAC2nd & 7 at BUF 1513–24
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Herbert sacked at BUF 18 for -3 yards (E.Oliver). FUMBLES (E.Oliver) [E.Oliver], RECOVERED by BUF-D.Alford at BUF 13. D.Alford for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete short left [E.Oliver].
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)+1.5%
Home WP97.0%
PredictedPass 78%✓correct
Q4 2:28LAC1st & 10 at BUF 1813–24
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right to T.Harris to BUF 15 for 3 yards (D.Igbinosun).
EPA-0.33
WPA (home)-1.0%
Home WP95.5%
Yards3
Air zoneshort right
TargetT.Harris
PredictedPass 66%✓correct
Q4 2:36LAC1st & 10 at BUF 4713–24
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass deep right to L.McConkey pushed ob at BUF 18 for 29 yards (T.Bernard).
EPA+2.09
WPA (home)-2.3%
Home WP96.5%
Yards29
Air zonedeep right
TargetL.McConkey
PredictedPass 66%✓correct
Q4 2:43LAC1st & 10 at LAC 3913–24
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short left to K.Vidal ran ob at BUF 47 for 14 yards (C.Gardner-Johnson).
EPA+1.01
WPA (home)-0.2%
Home WP98.8%
Yards14
Air zoneshort left
TargetK.Vidal
PredictedPass 66%✓correct
Q4 3:05LAC1st & 10 at LAC 1613–24
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass deep right to T.Harris to LAC 39 for 23 yards (T.Bernard).
EPA+1.66
WPA (home)-0.6%
Home WP99.0%
Yards23
Air zonedeep right
TargetT.Harris
PredictedPass 66%✓correct
Q4 3:13BUF13–24
T.Bass kicks 65 yards from BUF 35 to LAC 0. D.Davis MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 2. D.Davis to LAC 31 for 29 yards (J.Andreessen; D.Hamlin).PENALTY on LAC-H.Rucci, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 26.
WPA (home)+0.2%
Home WP99.6%
Q4 3:13BUF1st & Goal at LAC 3Score13–24
J.Cook up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.
EPA+0.62
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP99.4%
Yards3
PredictedRun 91%✓correct
Q4 3:23BUF3rd & 10 at LAC 1913–17
(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to D.Moore pushed ob at LAC 3 for 16 yards (R.Shelley).
EPA+2.76
WPA (home)+6.6%
Home WP99.3%
Yards16
Air zoneshort left
TargetD.Moore
PredictedPass 64%✓correct
Q4 3:23BUF3rd & 11 at LAC 2013–17
Timeout #2 by LAC at 03:23.
WPA (home)+0.8%
Home WP92.7%
Q4 3:29BUF2nd & 17 at LAC 2613–17
(Shotgun) J.Allen up the middle to LAC 19 for 7 yards (D.Henley; K.Mack).
EPA+1.50
WPA (home)+1.4%
Home WP91.9%
Yards7
PredictedRun 66%✓correct
Q4 3:30BUF2nd & 17 at LAC 2613–17
Timeout #1 by LAC at 03:30.
WPA (home)+1.2%
Home WP90.4%
Q4 3:38BUF1st & 10 at LAC 1913–17
J.Allen sacked at LAC 26 for -7 yards (sack split by N.Barrett and T.Tuipulotu).
EPA+0.27
WPA (home)-4.0%
Home WP89.3%
PredictedRun 78%×incorrect
Q4 4:24BUF2nd & 7 at LAC 4213–17
J.Cook right guard to LAC 19 for 23 yards (T.Still).
EPA+2.21
WPA (home)+5.3%
Home WP93.3%
Yards23
PredictedRun 66%✓correct
Q4 5:08BUF1st & 10 at LAC 4513–17
J.Cook right tackle to LAC 42 for 3 yards (T.Tuipulotu).
EPA-0.33
WPA (home)-1.3%
Home WP87.9%
Yards3
PredictedRun 59%✓correct
Q4 5:14LAC4th & 10 at LAC 4513–17
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to K.Vidal [E.Oliver].
EPA-3.34
WPA (home)+4.4%
Home WP89.2%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetK.Vidal (inc)
PredictedPass 92%✓correct
Q4 5:18LAC3rd & 10 at LAC 4513–17
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to Q.Johnston.
EPA-0.85
WPA (home)+4.3%
Home WP84.9%
Yards0
Air zoneshort left
TargetQ.Johnston (inc)
PredictedPass 88%✓correct
Q4 6:02LAC2nd & 7 at LAC 4813–17
(Shotgun) J.Herbert sacked at LAC 45 for -3 yards (G.Rousseau).
EPA-1.08
WPA (home)+4.6%
Home WP80.5%
PredictedPass 68%✓correct
Q4 6:47LAC1st & 10 at LAC 4513–17
(Shotgun) J.Herbert scrambles right end to LAC 48 for 3 yards (D.Igbinosun; D.Walker).
EPA-0.33
WPA (home)+1.6%
Home WP75.9%
Yards3
PredictedPass 55%×incorrect
Q4 7:25LAC1st & 5 at LAC 3813–17
O.Hampton right guard to LAC 45 for 7 yards (C.Gardner-Johnson; B.Chubb).
EPA+0.37
WPA (home)-1.4%
Home WP74.3%
Yards7
PredictedPass 55%×incorrect

Box score

Team stats	LAC	BUF
Total yards	348	350
Yards / play	5.4	5.6
Turnovers	1	5
3rd down	6-15	6-12
Red zone	1-4	3-4
Possession	31:22	28:38

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
J.Herbert	20/34	226	1	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
O.Hampton	15	56	3.7
K.Mitchell	8	52	6.5
J.Herbert	4	17	4.3
K.Vidal	1	6	6.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS
T.Harris	6/7	76
L.McConkey	4/5	66
Q.Johnston	3/6	40
A.Ingold	3/4	35
K.Vidal	1/3	14

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
G.Smith	5	0	2
T.Tuipulotu	6	1.5	0
D.Henley	9	0	0
A.Mesidor	3	1	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
J.Allen	16/26	204	0	2

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
J.Cook III	24	154	6.4	1
J.Allen	8	22	2.8	2
D.Knox	1	0	0.0	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS
D.Moore	6/10	67
T.Johnson	4/4	50
D.Kincaid	2/3	38
K.Coleman	1/2	37
K.Shakir	1/3	6

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
G.Rousseau	8	2	0
C.Gardner-Johnson	5	0	1
D.Williams	9	0	0
D.Igbinosun	6	0	0

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Buffalo Bills