Giants
1-1
6
Rams
1-1
28
Final
Pregame model pick
LAR 58.3%
Correct · ATS loss
- Model spread
- LAR -3
- Model total
- 46.4
- ATS pick
- NYG +8.5
- -5.7 pt edge
- Total pick
- Pass
- -1.1 pt edge
Model breakdown
Why the model likes LAR
The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.
- Market priorhelps LAR+6.4 pts · +18.7%
Opening line LAR -8.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 1 game
- Passing offensehurts LAR-2.2 pts · -6.3%
LAR -1.00 vs NYG +1.00 EPA/dropback (vs. league avg)
- Point differentialhurts LAR-0.9 pts · -2.6%
LAR -20.0 vs NYG +8.0 per game
- Run defensehurts LAR-0.5 pts · -1.5%
LAR +0.38 vs NYG -0.12 EPA/rush allowed (vs. league avg)
- Rushing offensehurts LAR-0.5 pts · -1.4%
LAR -0.31 vs NYG +0.10 EPA/rush (vs. league avg)
- Home fieldhelps LAR+0.4 pts · +1.2%
LAR at home (1.7 pts)
- Pass defensehelps LAR+0.2 pts · +0.5%
LAR +0.30 vs NYG +0.36 EPA/dropback allowed (vs. league avg)
Early-season sample (1 game), so the stats are shrunk toward average and the market carries more weight.
Model vs. market
LAR win probability
- GameLens
- 58%
- Market
- 73%
- Difference
- -14%
Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.
Matchup Lens
The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.
- Edge: NYGMajor
NYG third-down offense vs LAR third-down defense
- NYG third-down conversion rate
- 82% (1st)
- LAR third-down rate allowed
- 58% (23rd)
- Edge: LARMajor
LAR pass protection vs NYG pass rush
- LAR sack rate allowed
- 0.0% (1st)
- NYG sack rate generated
- 0.0% (28th)
- Edge: NYGMajor
NYG big-play defense vs LAR explosive plays
- LAR explosive-play rate
- 7.0% (23rd)
- NYG explosive-play rate allowed
- 1.9% (1st)
- Edge: NYGMajor
NYG passing attack vs LAR secondary
- NYG EPA per dropback
- +1.03 (2nd)
- LAR EPA per dropback allowed
- +0.33 (25th)
- Edge: NYGClear
NYG run defense vs LAR run game
- LAR EPA per rush
- -0.28 (28th)
- NYG EPA per rush allowed
- -0.10 (7th)
Live win probability
Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.
Win probability
100.0% LAR win probability
Key moments
Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.
Key moments
- touchdownQ1 0:11
(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short middle to D.Adams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.
WPA +9.7%EPA +3.77 - big playQ2 12:50
(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass deep right to D.Adams to NYG 14 for 64 yards (J.Holland).
WPA +8.3%EPA +7.03 - defenseQ2 3:11
K.Williams up the middle to LA 11 for 5 yards (J.Holland; A.Reese). FUMBLES (J.Holland), RECOVERED by NYG-J.Holland at LA 11.
WPA -6.5%EPA -5.24 - defenseQ2 6:31
(Shotgun) J.Winston pass deep middle intended for M.Nabers INTERCEPTED by T.McDuffie [B.Young] at LA -1. T.McDuffie to LA 21 for 22 yards (T.Johnson).
WPA +4.8%EPA -10.00 - touchdownQ2 11:07
(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short left to K.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.
WPA +4.3%EPA +2.51 - big playQ2 10:20
J.Winston pass deep left to D.Mooney pushed ob at LA 31 for 33 yards (K.Curl) [D.Johnson].
WPA -3.1%EPA +2.98
Highlights
Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.
Highlights
Highlight clips post during and after the game.
Player props
Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.
Player props
Passing target maps
Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.
Target maps
33 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
30 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
Play-by-play
EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.
Play-by-play
Play-call model: 73/115 (63%) run/pass correct
- Q4 0:00LAR6–28
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP100.0% - Q4 0:38LAR3rd & 12 at NYG 226–28
M.Stafford kneels to NYG 23 for -1 yards.
EPA-3.29WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-1PredictedRun 69%✓correct - Q4 1:17LAR2nd & 11 at NYG 216–28
M.Stafford kneels to NYG 22 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.83WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-1PredictedRun 88%✓correct - Q4 2:00LAR1st & 10 at NYG 206–28
M.Stafford kneels to NYG 21 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.84WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-1PredictedRun 93%✓correct - Q4 2:00LAR1st & 10 at NYG 206–28
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 2:38LAR3rd & 3 at NYG 276–28
M.Stafford pass short left to D.Allen to NYG 20 for 7 yards (N.Jones).
EPA+2.97WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards7Air zoneshort leftTargetD.AllenPredictedRun 84%×incorrect - Q4 3:25LAR2nd & 4 at NYG 286–28
K.Williams up the middle to NYG 27 for 1 yard (A.Reese; T.Edmunds).
EPA-0.57WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards1PredictedRun 92%✓correct - Q4 4:11LAR1st & 10 at NYG 346–28
K.Williams right tackle to NYG 28 for 6 yards (J.Holland).
EPA+0.05WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards6PredictedRun 93%✓correct - Q4 4:57LAR2nd & 2 at NYG 396–28
B.Corum up the middle to NYG 34 for 5 yards (S.Harris).
EPA+0.63WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards5PredictedRun 95%✓correct - Q4 5:42LAR1st & 10 at NYG 476–28
B.Corum left tackle to NYG 39 for 8 yards (A.Reese).
EPA+0.30WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards8PredictedRun 83%✓correct - Q4 6:04LAR1st & 10 at NYG 476–28
Official Timeout at 06:04.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 6:12LAR1st & 10 at LAR 356–28
B.Corum right end pushed ob at NYG 47 for 18 yards (J.Holland). NYG-B.Burns was injured during the play.
EPA+4.68WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards18PredictedRun 83%✓correct - Q4 6:12LAR1st & 10 at LAR 356–28
Official Timeout at 06:12.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 6:17NYG4th & 10 at LAR 356–28
(Shotgun) J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to M.Fields (E.Forbes).Penalty on NYG-M.Fields, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
EPA-8.01WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards0Air zonedeep rightTargetM.Fields (inc)PredictedPass 97%✓correct - Q4 6:21NYG3rd & 10 at LAR 356–28
(Shotgun) J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to M.Fields.
EPA-0.85WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards0Air zoneshort middleTargetM.Fields (inc)PredictedPass 95%✓correct - Q4 6:21NYG3rd & 5 at LAR 306–28
(Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-F.Mauigoa, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 30 - No Play.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 7:05NYG2nd & 5 at LAR 306–28
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Winston pass short right to C.Skattebo to LA 30 for no gain (Q.Lake). FUMBLES (Q.Lake), ball out of bounds at LA 30.
EPA-0.70WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP99.9%Yards0Air zoneshort rightTargetC.SkatteboPredictedPass 79%✓correct - Q4 7:42NYG1st & 10 at LAR 356–28
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Winston pass short right to I.Likely to LA 30 for 5 yards (T.McDuffie).
EPA-0.08WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.8%Yards5Air zoneshort rightTargetI.LikelyPredictedPass 76%✓correct - Q4 8:10NYG1st & 10 at NYG 496–28
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Winston pass short left to M.Fields to LA 35 for 16 yards (J.Watson).
EPA+1.15WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.8%Yards16Air zoneshort leftTargetM.FieldsPredictedPass 76%✓correct - Q4 8:37NYG2nd & 2 at NYG 436–28
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Winston pass short middle to I.Likely to NYG 49 for 6 yards (Q.Lake).
EPA+0.71WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards6Air zoneshort middleTargetI.LikelyPredictedPass 67%✓correct - Q4 8:57NYG1st & 10 at NYG 356–28
(Shotgun) C.Skattebo left end pushed ob at NYG 43 for 8 yards (K.Curl).
EPA+0.30WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.8%Yards8PredictedPass 75%×incorrect - Q4 8:57LAR6–28
H.Mevis kicks 65 yards from LA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the NYG 35.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 8:57LAR & Goal at NYG 156–28
Official Timeout at 08:57.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 8:57LAR2nd & Goal at NYG 5Score6–28
(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short middle to T.Ferguson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.
EPA+1.40WPA (home)+0.3%Home WP99.9%Yards5Air zoneshort middleTargetT.FergusonPredictedRun 80%×incorrect - Q4 9:47LAR1st & Goal at NYG 86–21
K.Williams right end to NYG 5 for 3 yards (C.Hood; A.Carter).
EPA-0.28WPA (home)+0.2%Home WP99.6%Yards3PredictedRun 75%✓correct - Q4 10:34LAR2nd & 9 at NYG 216–21
(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short left to B.Corum to NYG 8 for 13 yards (T.Edmunds; G.Newsome).
EPA+1.65WPA (home)+0.4%Home WP99.4%Yards13Air zoneshort leftTargetB.CorumPredictedRun 63%×incorrect - Q4 11:21LAR1st & 10 at NYG 226–21
B.Corum left guard to NYG 18 for 4 yards (J.Holland). FUMBLES (J.Holland), and recovers at NYG 21.
EPA-0.59WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP99.0%Yards1PredictedRun 75%✓correct - Q4 12:00LAR3rd & 1 at NYG 306–21
M.Stafford pass short right to C.Parkinson to NYG 22 for 8 yards (C.Hood).
EPA+1.50WPA (home)+0.2%Home WP99.1%Yards8Air zoneshort rightTargetC.ParkinsonPredictedRun 78%×incorrect - Q4 12:44LAR2nd & 4 at NYG 336–21
K.Williams up the middle to NYG 30 for 3 yards (D.Reader).
EPA-0.32WPA (home)+0.2%Home WP98.9%Yards3PredictedRun 71%✓correct - Q4 13:21LAR1st & 10 at NYG 396–21
K.Williams up the middle to NYG 33 for 6 yards (T.Nubin).
EPA+0.05WPA (home)+0.2%Home WP98.7%Yards6PredictedRun 74%✓correct
Box score
Box score
| Team stats | NYG | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 182 | 481 |
| Yards / play | 3.3 | 8 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| 3rd down | 3-14 | 5-9 |
| Red zone | 0-2 | 3-3 |
| Possession | 27:25 | 32:35 |
New York Giants
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 C.Skattebo | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 |
 D.Singletary | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
 N.Harris | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
 J.Winston | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 D.Mooney | 2/3 | 48 | 0 |
 I.Likely | 5/10 | 33 | 0 |
 M.Fields | 2/6 | 30 | 0 |
| C.Skattebo | 4/4 | 19 | 0 |
 M.Nabers | 1/4 | 1 | 0 |
Los Angeles Rams
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 M.Stafford | 22/31 | 327 | 4 | 1 |
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 K.Williams | 12 | 85 | 7.1 | 0 |
 B.Corum | 12 | 79 | 6.6 | 0 |
| M.Stafford | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 D.Adams | 8/10 | 195 | 2 |
 T.Ferguson | 6/9 | 54 | 1 |
 T.Atwell | 1/2 | 19 | 0 |
 C.Parkinson | 2/2 | 15 | 0 |
| B.Corum | 1/1 | 13 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 B.Young | 5 | 1 | 0 |
 T.McDuffie | 2 | 0 | 1 |
 Q.Lake | 7 | 0 | 0 |
 N.Landman | 7 | 0 | 0 |
