LAR @ DEN

Rams

1-2

Broncos

2-1

Final

Pregame model pick

LAR 55.8%

Missed

Low

Model spread: DEN +2
Model total: 42.8
ATS pick: Pass; +0.5 pt edge
Total pick: U 45.5; -2.7 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

LAR spread+1.5

LAR ML-102

Over44.5

DEN spread-1.5

DEN ML-118

Under44.5

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% DEN win probability

DEN aboveLAR below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

clutchQ4 4:49
(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short left intended for K.Williams INTERCEPTED by T.Hufanga at DEN 34. T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.
WPA +50.4%EPA -9.47
clutchQ4 3:38
(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Stafford pass deep right to K.Mumpfield for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.
WPA -32.2%EPA +4.28
clutchQ4 0:47
A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. B.Nix up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.PENALTY on LA-T.McDuffie, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
WPA +24.0%EPA +1.59
clutchQ4 0:03
(No Huddle) M.Stafford spiked the ball to stop the clock.
WPA +24.0%EPA +0.29
clutchQ4 1:01
(Shotgun) B.Nix pass incomplete short left to E.Engram (Q.Lake).PENALTY on LA-Q.Lake, Illegal Use of Hands, 3 yards, enforced at LA 5 - No Play.
WPA +22.0%
clutchQ4 3:26
(Shotgun) B.Nix pass short right to P.Bryant to LA 36 for 39 yards (K.Curl).
WPA +21.4%EPA +4.07

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Big plays
Broncos erase 16-point deficit, take down Rams 30-26 in a thriller
Touchdowns
Broncos tie the game with another TD, 2-point conversion
Touchdowns
Matthew Stafford airs it out to Konata Mumpfield for a 48-yard TD
Defense
Broncos crowd erupts as Hufanga gets pick-six on Stafford
Clutch
Bo Nix reaches across the goal line for the go-ahead TD
Clutch
Broncos pick off Stafford on final play to seal win over Rams

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
Davante Adams LAR	Receiving Yards	O 68.5(-7.0 from open)	82.5	66%	+13.5%	137Hit
Matthew Stafford LAR	Carries	O 1.5	2	64%	+11.5%	2Hit
J.K. Dobbins DEN	Carries	U 13.5(+1.0 from open)	12	64%	+11.5%	17Miss
Courtland Sutton DEN	Receiving Yards	U 36.5(-5.0 from open)	30.3	63%	+10.8%	46Miss
Terrance Ferguson LAR	Receiving Yards	U 49.5(-1.0 from open)	42	62%	+9.5%	9Hit
Adam Trautman DEN	Receptions	O 0.5	0.8	62%	+9.4%	0Miss
Bo Nix DEN	Rushing Yards	U 16.5(-1.0 from open)	12.3	61%	+8.5%	7Hit
Konata Mumpfield LAR	Receptions	U 1.5	1.2	59%	+7.0%	4Miss
Blake Corum LAR	Rushing Yards	O 50.5(+5.0 from open)	55.8	58%	+6.0%	15Miss
Blake Corum LAR	Rush + Rec Yards	O 55.5(+1.0 from open)	61.3	58%	+5.9%	15Miss
Terrance Ferguson LAR	Receptions	U 4.5(+1.0 from open)	4	58%	+5.7%	1Hit
J.K. Dobbins DEN	Rushing Yards	U 51.5(+1.0 from open)	46.3	58%	+5.6%	49Hit
RJ Harvey DEN	Carries	U 5.5	5	57%	+5.0%	2Hit
Colby Parkinson LAR	Receptions	U 2.5	2.2	57%	+4.9%	0Hit
Evan Engram DEN	Receiving Yards	O 22.5(+1.0 from open)	25	57%	+4.2%	0Miss
J.K. Dobbins DEN	Receptions	U 0.5	0.3	57%	+4.2%	1Miss
RJ Harvey DEN	Receptions	O 2.5	2.8	57%	+4.2%	6Hit
Courtland Sutton DEN	Receptions	U 3.5	3.2	56%	+3.8%	3Hit
Kyren Williams LAR	Rushing Yards	O 52.5(-3.0 from open)	56	55%	+2.9%	88Hit
Colby Parkinson LAR	Receiving Yards	U 16.5(-2.0 from open)	14.5	55%	+2.9%	0Hit
Blake Corum LAR	Receiving Yards	O 0.5	2.5	55%	+2.9%	0Miss
Matthew Stafford LAR	Completions	U 20.5(-1.0 from open)	19.8	55%	+2.7%	30Miss
Bo Nix DEN	Completions	U 21.5	20.8	55%	+2.6%	17Hit
Kyren Williams LAR	Receiving Yards	O 12.5	14.3	55%	+2.5%	70Hit
Pat Bryant DEN	Receiving Yards	U 26.5	24.7	55%	+2.5%	44Miss
Matthew Stafford LAR	Passing TDs	O 1.5	1.7	55%	+2.3%	2Hit
Bo Nix DEN	Passing TDs	U 1.5	1.3	55%	+2.3%	2Miss
Kyren Williams LAR	Rush + Rec Yards	O 69.5(+1.0 from open)	73.3	54%	+2.0%	158Hit
Jaylen Waddle DEN	Receiving Yards	O 61.5(+4.0 from open)	64.3	54%	+1.3%	10Miss
Pat Bryant DEN	Receptions	U 2.5	2.3	54%	+1.3%	2Hit
Jordan Whittington LAR	Receiving Yards	U 14.5	13.2	53%	+1.1%	0Hit
Kyren Williams LAR	Anytime TD	Yes	1	53%	+0.9%	0Miss
Konata Mumpfield LAR	Receiving Yards	U 9.5(-1.0 from open)	8.3	53%	+0.7%	93Miss
RJ Harvey DEN	Receiving Yards	O 17.5(-1.0 from open)	18.6	53%	+0.5%	41Hit
Jordan Whittington LAR	Receptions	U 1.5	1.4	53%	+0.4%	0Hit
Bo Nix DEN	Carries	U 4.5	4.3	53%	+0.3%	4Hit
Adam Trautman DEN	Receiving Yards	O 6.5	7.2	52%	-0.5%	0Miss
Blake Corum LAR	Carries	U 11.5	11.3	52%	-0.7%	6Hit
Matthew Stafford LAR	Rushing Yards	U 0.5	0	51%	-1.1%	13Miss
RJ Harvey DEN	Rushing Yards	U 20.5(+1.0 from open)	20	51%	-1.1%	6Hit
J.K. Dobbins DEN	Receiving Yards	U 1.5	1	51%	-1.1%	4Miss
Matthew Stafford LAR	Passing Yards	O 233.5(-11.0 from open)	236	51%	-1.5%	390Hit
Bo Nix DEN	Passing Yards	U 215.5(+2.0 from open)	213.5	51%	-1.7%	186Hit
RJ Harvey DEN	Rush + Rec Yards	U 41.5	41.4	50%	-2.2%	47Miss
Kyren Williams LAR	Carries	O 11.5(-2.0 from open)	11.5	50%	-2.4%	15Hit
Davante Adams LAR	Receptions	O 5.5	5.5	50%	-2.4%	7Hit
Evan Engram DEN	Receptions	O 2.5	2.5	50%	-2.4%	0Miss
Jaylen Waddle DEN	Receptions	O 4.5	4.5	50%	-2.4%	2Miss
Blake Corum LAR	Receptions	O 0.5	0.5	50%	-2.4%	2Hit
Kyren Williams LAR	Receptions	O 2.5	2.5	50%	-2.4%	6Hit
Davante Adams LAR	Anytime TD	Yes	1	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Evan Engram DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Nate Adkins DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	1Hit
Terrance Ferguson LAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Jonah Coleman DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Tyler Higbee LAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	1Hit
Adam Trautman DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Adam Prentice DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Lil'Jordan Humphrey DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Tutu Atwell LAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Tyler Badie DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Puka Nacua LAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
RJ Harvey DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Jordan Whittington LAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Marvin Mims Jr. DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Matthew Stafford LAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Courtland Sutton DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
J.K. Dobbins DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Colby Parkinson LAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Jaylen Waddle DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Xavier Smith LAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Bo Nix DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Davis Allen LAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Blake Corum LAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Troy Franklin DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Pat Bryant DEN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Konata Mumpfield LAR	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Los Angeles Rams

deep left51/5 · 22 yds

deep middle0—

deep right104/10 · 111 yds

short left116/11 · 60 yds

short middle33/3 · 55 yds

short right2315/23 · 128 yds

Line of scrimmage

52 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Denver Broncos

deep left21/2 · 27 yds

deep middle10/1 · 0 yds

deep right10/1 · 0 yds

short left136/13 · 51 yds

short middle20/2 · 0 yds

short right1510/15 · 108 yds

Line of scrimmage

34 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 91/142 (64%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00DEN26–30
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP100.0%
Q4 0:02LAR2nd & 15 at DEN 19Turnover26–30
(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass deep right intended for D.Adams INTERCEPTED by T.Hufanga at DEN -1. Touchback.
EPA-4.04
WPA (home)+6.6%
Home WP99.9%
Yards0
Air zonedeep right
TargetD.Adams (inc)
PredictedPass 86%✓correct
Q4 0:02LAR2nd & 10 at DEN 1426–30
(Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-A.Jackson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 14 - No Play.
WPA (home)+5.1%
Home WP93.3%
Q4 0:02LAR2nd & 10 at DEN 1426–30
Timeout #2 by DEN at 00:02.
WPA (home)+0.7%
Home WP88.2%
Q4 0:03LAR1st & 10 at DEN 1426–30
(No Huddle) M.Stafford spiked the ball to stop the clock.
EPA+0.29
WPA (home)+24.0%
Home WP87.5%
Yards0
PredictedPass 78%✓correct
Q4 0:16LAR2nd & 10 at DEN 3426–30
(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass deep right to K.Williams to DEN 14 for 20 yards (D.Key).
EPA+2.16
WPA (home)-21.2%
Home WP63.5%
Yards20
Air zonedeep right
TargetK.Williams
PredictedPass 86%✓correct
Q4 0:21LAR1st & 10 at DEN 3426–30
(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to D.Adams.
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)+2.5%
Home WP84.7%
Yards0
Air zonedeep left
TargetD.Adams (inc)
PredictedPass 78%✓correct
Q4 0:26LAR1st & 10 at DEN 4826–30
(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to T.Higbee.The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short right to T.Higbee ran ob at DEN 34 for 14 yards.
EPA+1.01
WPA (home)-9.5%
Home WP82.2%
Yards14
Air zoneshort right
TargetT.Higbee (inc)
PredictedPass 78%✓correct
Q4 0:26LAR1st & 10 at DEN 4926–30
Timeout #3 by LA at 00:26.
WPA (home)+2.9%
Home WP91.8%
Q4 0:32LAR3rd & 10 at LAR 3326–30
(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short right to K.Williams to DEN 48 for 19 yards (B.Jones).
EPA+6.24
WPA (home)-7.9%
Home WP88.9%
Yards19
Air zoneshort right
TargetK.Williams
PredictedPass 96%✓correct
Q4 0:37LAR2nd & 10 at LAR 3326–30
(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to D.Adams.
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)+1.4%
Home WP96.8%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetD.Adams (inc)
PredictedPass 86%✓correct
Q4 0:42LAR1st & 10 at LAR 3326–30
(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to K.Mumpfield (R.Moss).
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)+1.8%
Home WP95.3%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetK.Mumpfield (inc)
PredictedPass 78%✓correct
Q4 0:47DEN26–30
W.Lutz kicks 53 yards from DEN 40 to LA 7. X.Smith to LA 33 for 26 yards (A.Prentice; J.Turner).
WPA (home)-2.9%
Home WP93.5%
Q4 0:47DEN3rd & Goal at LAR 1Score26–30
A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. B.Nix up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.PENALTY on LA-T.McDuffie, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
EPA+1.59
WPA (home)+24.0%
Home WP96.5%
Yards1
PredictedRun 69%✓correct
Q4 0:48DEN3rd & Goal at LAR 126–23
A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. PENALTY on LA-K.Turner, Encroachment, 0 yards, enforced at LA 1 - No Play.
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP72.5%
Q4 0:51DEN2nd & Goal at LAR 226–23
(Shotgun) A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. B.Nix right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. B.Nix right end ran ob at LA 1 for 1 yard (T.McDuffie).
EPA-0.57
WPA (home)-4.0%
Home WP72.4%
Yards1
PredictedPass 60%×incorrect
Q4 0:56DEN1st & Goal at LAR 226–23
A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. B.Nix pass incomplete short right to N.Adkins.
EPA-0.49
WPA (home)-3.8%
Home WP76.4%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetN.Adkins (inc)
PredictedPass 69%✓correct
Q4 1:01DEN3rd & Goal at LAR 526–23
(Shotgun) B.Nix pass incomplete short left to E.Engram (Q.Lake).PENALTY on LA-Q.Lake, Illegal Use of Hands, 3 yards, enforced at LA 5 - No Play.
WPA (home)+22.0%
Home WP80.3%
Air zoneshort left
TargetE.Engram
Q4 1:01DEN3rd & 5 at LAR 526–23
Timeout #1 by DEN at 01:01.
WPA (home)-1.2%
Home WP58.3%
Q4 1:05DEN2nd & Goal at LAR 526–23
(Shotgun) B.Nix pass incomplete short left to C.Sutton.
EPA-0.34
WPA (home)-10.9%
Home WP59.4%
Yards0
Air zoneshort left
TargetC.Sutton (inc)
PredictedPass 82%✓correct
Q4 1:05DEN2nd & 5 at LAR 526–23
Timeout #2 by LA at 01:05.
WPA (home)+0.3%
Home WP70.3%
Q4 1:09DEN1st & Goal at LAR 726–23
J.Dobbins right tackle to LA 5 for 2 yards (Q.Lake; B.Young).
EPA-0.02
WPA (home)-0.7%
Home WP70.0%
Yards2
PredictedPass 79%×incorrect
Q4 1:15DEN3rd & 6 at LAR 1126–23
(Shotgun) B.Nix pass short right intended for P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by J.Wallace [B.Young] at LA 8. J.Wallace ran ob at LA 8 for no gain.PENALTY on LA-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at LA 11 - No Play.
WPA (home)+16.1%
Home WP70.7%
Air zoneshort right
TargetP.Bryant
Q4 1:15DEN3rd & 6 at LAR 1126–23
Timeout #1 by LA at 01:15.
WPA (home)+0.3%
Home WP54.6%
Q4 1:22DEN2nd & 8 at LAR 1326–23
(Shotgun) B.Nix pass short right to R.Harvey to LA 11 for 2 yards (N.Landman; J.McCollough).
EPA+0.35
WPA (home)+1.9%
Home WP54.3%
Yards2
Air zoneshort right
TargetR.Harvey
PredictedPass 87%✓correct
Q4 2:00DEN1st & 10 at LAR 1526–23
A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. J.Dobbins up the middle to LA 13 for 2 yards (P.Ford).
EPA-0.46
WPA (home)-4.4%
Home WP52.3%
Yards2
PredictedPass 56%×incorrect
Q4 2:00DEN1st & 10 at LAR 1526–23
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)+4.0%
Home WP56.7%
Q4 2:35DEN1st & 10 at LAR 3626–23
(Shotgun) B.Nix pass short right to T.Franklin to LA 15 for 21 yards (T.McDuffie).
EPA+2.59
WPA (home)+12.3%
Home WP52.6%
Yards21
Air zoneshort right
TargetT.Franklin
PredictedPass 56%✓correct
Q4 3:26DEN2nd & 20 at DEN 2526–23
(Shotgun) B.Nix pass short right to P.Bryant to LA 36 for 39 yards (K.Curl).
EPA+4.07
WPA (home)+21.4%
Home WP40.4%
Yards39
Air zoneshort right
TargetP.Bryant
PredictedPass 69%✓correct
Q4 3:33DEN2nd & 10 at DEN 3526–23
(Shotgun) B.Nix scrambles right end ran ob at DEN 40 for 5 yards (J.Wallace).PENALTY on DEN-G.Bolles, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 35 - No Play.
WPA (home)-6.2%
Home WP19.0%

Box score

Team stats	LAR	DEN
Total yards	482	257
Yards / play	5.9	4.3
Turnovers	2	1
3rd down	8-17	7-13
Red zone	1-4	3-3
Possession	34:29	25:31

Los Angeles Rams

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
M.Stafford	30/55	390	2	2

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
K.Williams	15	88	5.9
B.Corum	6	15	2.5
M.Stafford	2	13	6.5

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
D.Adams	7/13	137	0
K.Mumpfield	4/8	93	1
K.Williams	6/7	70	0
T.Higbee	8/11	62	1
D.Allen	2/3	19	0

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
O.Speights	6	1	0
J.Wallace	3	0	1
Q.Lake	6	0	0
K.Turner	5	0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
B.Nix	17/34	186	2	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
J.Dobbins	17	49	2.9	0
J.Waddle	1	14	14.0	0
B.Nix	4	7	1.8	1
R.Harvey	2	6	3.0	0
T.Badie	1	2	2.0	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
C.Sutton	3/7	46	0
P.Bryant	2/2	44	1
R.Harvey	6/7	41	0
T.Franklin	1/1	21	0
T.Badie	1/1	12	0

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
T.Hufanga	5	1	2
B.Jones	12	0	0
P.Surtain II	8	0	0
A.Singleton	8	0	0

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Denver Broncos