CIN @ PIT

Bengals

2-1

Steelers

2-1

Final

Pregame model pick

CIN 61.5%

Missed · ATS loss

Low

Model spread: PIT +4
Model total: 44.1
ATS pick: CIN -1.5; -2.4 pt edge
Total pick: U 47.5; -3.4 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

CIN spread-3.5

CIN ML-185

Over42.5

PIT spread+3.5

PIT ML+154

Under42.5

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% PIT win probability

PIT aboveCIN below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

clutchQ4 0:53
(Shotgun) J.Burrow sacked at PIT 46 for -8 yards (D.Harmon). FUMBLES (D.Harmon) [D.Harmon], RECOVERED by PIT-S.Joseph at CIN 49.
WPA +37.1%EPA -6.54
clutchQ4 11:04
C.Johnston punts 51 yards to CIN 13, Center-C.Kuntz. K.Williams MUFFS catch, touched at CIN 16, RECOVERED by PIT-B.Skowronek at CIN 14. PIT-B.Echols was injured during the play.
WPA +22.4%
clutchQ4 13:29
(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass deep middle to M.Gesicki for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner, Holder-R.Rehkow.
WPA -22.2%EPA +4.22
clutchQ4 6:16
A.Rodgers pass short right to D.Washington to CIN 32 for 47 yards (K.Dugger).
WPA +15.2%EPA +3.38
touchdownQ2 0:34
(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass deep right to T.Higgins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [S.Joseph]. E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner, Holder-R.Rehkow.
WPA -13.4%EPA +2.62
clutchQ4 5:23
J.Warren left guard to CIN 6 for 26 yards (T.Davis).
WPA +13.0%EPA +2.41

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Recaps
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Game Highlights
Touchdowns
Aaron Rodgers airs it out to Roman Wilson for a 38-yard TD
Touchdowns
Tee Higgins somehow hauls in a TD with Asante Samuel Jr. all over him
Touchdowns
Rodgers puts Steelers back in front with TD pass to a wide-open Metcalf
Clutch
Joe Burrow connects with Mike Gesicki for go-ahead TD
Clutch
Steelers hit Burrow, recover fumble to seal win over Bengals

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
Mike Gesicki CIN	Receiving Yards	O 24.5(+1.0 from open)	35.2	76%	+23.8%	37Hit
Michael Pittman Jr. PIT	Receiving Yards	O 26.5(-1.0 from open)	32.8	66%	+13.9%	16Miss
Jaylen Warren PIT	Carries	U 15.5	13.8	64%	+12.0%	17Miss
Samaje Perine CIN	Receiving Yards	O 8.5(+1.0 from open)	13.3	63%	+10.2%	5Miss
Erick All Jr. CIN	Receptions	O 0.5	0.8	62%	+9.4%	0Miss
Ja'Marr Chase CIN	Receiving Yards	U 76.5(-1.0 from open)	65.5	61%	+8.9%	98Miss
Tee Higgins CIN	Receiving Yards	O 54.5(+1.0 from open)	62	61%	+8.4%	90Hit
Mike Gesicki CIN	Receptions	O 2.5	3	61%	+8.4%	3Hit
Roman Wilson PIT	Receptions	O 2.5	3	61%	+8.4%	3Hit
Chase Brown CIN	Receiving Yards	U 23.5(+1.0 from open)	19.7	60%	+7.7%	8Hit
Aaron Rodgers PIT	Passing TDs	U 1.5	1.2	59%	+7.0%	3Miss
Samaje Perine CIN	Rush + Rec Yards	O 25.5	29	59%	+6.8%	14Miss
DK Metcalf PIT	Receiving Yards	U 51.5(-2.0 from open)	45.5	59%	+6.8%	31Hit
Ja'Marr Chase CIN	Receptions	U 6.5	5.8	59%	+6.6%	9Miss
Drew Sample CIN	Receptions	O 1.5	1.8	58%	+6.0%	1Miss
Chase Brown CIN	Carries	O 15.5(-1.0 from open)	16.3	57%	+4.9%	13Miss
Drew Sample CIN	Receiving Yards	O 6.5	9	57%	+4.2%	0Miss
Jaylen Warren PIT	Rushing Yards	U 58.5(+1.0 from open)	53.8	56%	+3.9%	127Miss
Pat Freiermuth PIT	Receptions	O 3.5	3.8	56%	+3.8%	2Miss
Jaylen Warren PIT	Receptions	U 4.5(+1.0 from open)	4.2	55%	+3.0%	3Hit
Samaje Perine CIN	Receptions	O 1.5	1.7	55%	+2.3%	1Miss
Jaylen Warren PIT	Rush + Rec Yards	U 88.5(+3.0 from open)	84	54%	+1.7%	176Miss
Joe Burrow CIN	Rushing Yards	O 5.5(-1.0 from open)	6.8	54%	+1.1%	13Hit
Jaylen Warren PIT	Receiving Yards	O 26.5(+3.0 from open)	27.8	54%	+1.1%	49Hit
Roman Wilson PIT	Receiving Yards	O 23.5	24.7	53%	+0.7%	60Hit
Chase Brown CIN	Receptions	O 3.5	3.7	53%	+0.7%	2Miss
Chase Brown CIN	Rush + Rec Yards	U 90.5	87	53%	+0.7%	69Hit
DK Metcalf PIT	Receptions	U 4.5	4.3	53%	+0.3%	3Hit
Tee Higgins CIN	Receptions	U 4.5	4.3	53%	+0.3%	6Miss
Aaron Rodgers PIT	Completions	O 22.5	22.8	52%	0.0%	19Miss
Joe Burrow CIN	Passing Yards	U 253.5(+4.0 from open)	245.8	52%	0.0%	282Miss
Joe Burrow CIN	Completions	U 23.5	23.2	52%	0.0%	28Miss
Michael Pittman Jr. PIT	Receptions	O 2.5	2.6	52%	-0.2%	2Miss
Chase Brown CIN	Rushing Yards	O 63.5	65	52%	-0.5%	61Miss
Aaron Rodgers PIT	Passing Yards	U 219.5	214.3	52%	-0.5%	292Miss
Darnell Washington PIT	Receiving Yards	U 14.5(+4.0 from open)	13.8	52%	-0.6%	67Miss
Samaje Perine CIN	Rushing Yards	U 14.5	14	51%	-1.1%	9Hit
Pat Freiermuth PIT	Receiving Yards	O 37.5	38	51%	-1.3%	30Miss
Erick All Jr. CIN	Receiving Yards	U 6.5(+1.0 from open)	6.2	51%	-1.6%	0Hit
Aaron Rodgers PIT	Rushing Yards	O 0.5	0.7	50%	-2.0%	10Hit
Joe Burrow CIN	Passing TDs	O 1.5	1.5	50%	-2.4%	3Hit
Darnell Washington PIT	Receptions	O 1.5	1.5	50%	-2.4%	3Hit
Mike Gesicki CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	1Hit
Pat Freiermuth PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Chase Brown CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Ja'Marr Chase CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	1	37%	-15.7%	1Hit
Tanner Hudson CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Drew Sample CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Ben Skowronek PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	1Hit
Michael Pittman Jr. PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Travis Homer PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Erick All Jr. CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Tahj Brooks CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Germie Bernard PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Riley Nowakowski PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Colbie Young CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Aaron Rodgers PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Samaje Perine CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Joe Burrow CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Rico Dowdle PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
DK Metcalf PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Tee Higgins CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Andrei Iosivas CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Dohnte Meyers CIN	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Darnell Washington PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Roman Wilson PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Jaylen Warren PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Kaden Wetjen PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Eli Heidenreich PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Cincinnati Bengals

deep left0—

deep middle11/1 · 25 yds

deep right32/3 · 49 yds

short left1412/14 · 95 yds

short middle117/11 · 83 yds

short right96/9 · 30 yds

Line of scrimmage

38 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Pittsburgh Steelers

deep left41/4 · 38 yds

deep middle11/1 · 17 yds

deep right51/5 · 23 yds

short left54/5 · 49 yds

short middle118/11 · 100 yds

short right64/6 · 65 yds

Line of scrimmage

32 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 67/117 (57%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00PIT27–30
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP100.0%
Q4 0:17PIT2nd & 11 at 5027–30
A.Rodgers kneels to PIT 49 for -1 yards.
EPA-2.03
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedPass 68%×incorrect
Q4 0:44PIT1st & 10 at CIN 4927–30
A.Rodgers kneels to 50 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.84
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedPass 54%×incorrect
Q4 0:53CIN1st & 10 at PIT 38Turnover27–30
(Shotgun) J.Burrow sacked at PIT 46 for -8 yards (D.Harmon). FUMBLES (D.Harmon) [D.Harmon], RECOVERED by PIT-S.Joseph at CIN 49.
EPA-6.54
WPA (home)+37.1%
Home WP99.9%
PredictedPass 79%✓correct
Q4 0:58CIN3rd & 8 at CIN 4927–30
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Burrow pass short right to J.Chase ran ob at PIT 38 for 13 yards (D.Everette).
EPA+2.24
WPA (home)-11.5%
Home WP62.8%
Yards13
Air zoneshort right
TargetJ.Chase
PredictedPass 96%✓correct
Q4 1:25CIN2nd & 14 at CIN 4327–30
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Burrow pass short left to M.Gesicki to CIN 49 for 6 yards (R.Jenkins).
EPA+0.06
WPA (home)-3.0%
Home WP74.3%
Yards6
Air zoneshort left
TargetM.Gesicki
PredictedPass 87%✓correct
Q4 2:00CIN1st & 10 at CIN 4727–30
(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass short right to C.Brown to CIN 43 for -4 yards (P.Queen) [K.Benton].
EPA-1.22
WPA (home)+11.8%
Home WP77.3%
Yards-4
Air zoneshort right
TargetC.Brown
PredictedPass 55%✓correct
Q4 2:00CIN1st & 10 at CIN 4727–30
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)+0.6%
Home WP65.4%
Q4 2:08CIN1st & 10 at CIN 3027–30
(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass short middle to J.Chase to CIN 47 for 17 yards (R.Jenkins).
EPA+5.04
WPA (home)-8.2%
Home WP64.8%
Yards17
Air zoneshort middle
TargetJ.Chase
PredictedPass 55%✓correct
Q4 2:08CIN1st & 10 at CIN 3027–30
Timeout #2 by CIN at 02:08.
WPA (home)+2.6%
Home WP73.0%
Q4 2:15PIT27–30
C.Boswell kicks 62 yards from PIT 35 to CIN 3. T.Brooks to CIN 30 for 27 yards (D.Slaughter).
WPA (home)-3.2%
Home WP70.4%
Q4 2:15PIT4th & Goal at CIN 15Score27–30
C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.
WPA (home)+10.6%
Home WP73.6%
Q4 3:03PIT3rd & Goal at CIN 527–27
(Shotgun) A.Rodgers sacked at CIN 15 for -10 yards (D.Lawrence).
EPA-1.90
WPA (home)-9.7%
Home WP63.0%
PredictedPass 88%✓correct
Q4 3:48PIT2nd & Goal at CIN 1127–27
J.Warren left guard to CIN 5 for 6 yards (J.Allen; B.Carter).
EPA+0.06
WPA (home)+3.0%
Home WP72.8%
Yards6
PredictedPass 68%×incorrect
Q4 3:52PIT2nd & Goal at CIN 627–27
(Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right.PENALTY on PIT-T.Fautanu, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 6 - No Play.
WPA (home)-5.0%
Home WP69.8%
Q4 4:35PIT1st & Goal at CIN 627–27
(Shotgun) L.Nichols left guard to CIN 6 for no gain (D.Knight). ** Injury Update: CIN-B.Cook has returned to the game.
EPA-0.61
WPA (home)-1.6%
Home WP74.7%
Yards0
PredictedPass 54%×incorrect
Q4 4:35PIT1st & 6 at CIN 627–27
Timeout #2 by PIT at 04:35.
WPA (home)+0.6%
Home WP76.3%
Q4 5:23PIT1st & 10 at CIN 3227–27
J.Warren left guard to CIN 6 for 26 yards (T.Davis).
EPA+2.41
WPA (home)+13.0%
Home WP75.7%
Yards26
PredictedPass 54%×incorrect
Q4 6:16PIT1st & 10 at PIT 2127–27
A.Rodgers pass short right to D.Washington to CIN 32 for 47 yards (K.Dugger).
EPA+3.38
WPA (home)+15.2%
Home WP62.7%
Yards47
Air zoneshort right
TargetD.Washington
PredictedPass 54%✓correct
Q4 7:02PIT1st & 11 at PIT 727–27
(Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short middle to D.Metcalf to PIT 21 for 14 yards (K.Dugger) [J.Allen].
EPA+1.04
WPA (home)+4.8%
Home WP47.6%
Yards14
Air zoneshort middle
TargetD.Metcalf
PredictedPass 66%✓correct
Q4 7:39PIT1st & 10 at PIT 827–27
J.Warren up the middle to CIN 5 for 87 yards (J.Battle).PENALTY on PIT-D.Metcalf, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at PIT 14.
EPA-0.10
WPA (home)-0.3%
Home WP42.8%
Yards-8
PredictedPass 54%×incorrect
Q4 7:39PIT1st & 10 at PIT 827–27
Official Timeout at 07:39.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP43.1%
Q4 7:46CIN4th & 2 at CIN 4927–27
R.Rehkow punts 43 yards to PIT 8, Center-W.Wagner, fair catch by K.Wetjen.
WPA (home)-4.2%
Home WP43.1%
Q4 7:51CIN3rd & 2 at CIN 4927–27
(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle to S.Perine [C.Heyward].
EPA-8.15
WPA (home)+9.2%
Home WP47.4%
Yards0
Air zoneshort middle
TargetS.Perine (inc)
PredictedRun 55%×incorrect
Q4 8:35CIN2nd & 10 at CIN 4127–27
(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass short middle to T.Higgins to CIN 49 for 8 yards (R.Jenkins).
EPA+0.32
WPA (home)-4.2%
Home WP38.1%
Yards8
Air zoneshort middle
TargetT.Higgins
PredictedPass 64%✓correct
Q4 8:39CIN1st & 10 at CIN 4127–27
(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to J.Chase (P.Wilson).
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)+3.7%
Home WP42.4%
Yards0
Air zoneshort left
TargetJ.Chase (inc)
PredictedPass 50%✓correct
Q4 8:45PIT27–27
C.Boswell kicks 58 yards from PIT 35 to CIN 7. K.Williams to CIN 41 for 34 yards (T.Homer; D.Slaughter).
WPA (home)-5.3%
Home WP38.7%
Q4 8:45PIT & Goal at PIT 3527–27
Official Timeout at 08:45.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP44.0%
Q4 8:45PIT4th & 14 at CIN 18Score27–27
C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.
WPA (home)+3.3%
Home WP44.0%
Q4 9:28PIT3rd & 5 at CIN 927–24
(Shotgun) A.Rodgers sacked at CIN 18 for -9 yards (D.Lawrence).
EPA-1.61
WPA (home)-9.6%
Home WP40.7%
PredictedPass 90%✓correct

Box score

Team stats	CIN	PIT
Total yards	352	411
Yards / play	6.3	7
Turnovers	2	1
3rd down	6-12	7-12
Red zone	1-2	1-3
Possession	30:06	29:54

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
J.Burrow	28/37	282	3	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
C.Brown	13	61	4.7
J.Burrow	2	13	6.5
S.Perine	3	9	3.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
J.Chase	9/12	98	1
T.Higgins	6/7	90	1
M.Gesicki	3/3	37	1
D.Meyers	3/5	29	0
T.Hudson	2/2	13	0

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
D.Lawrence II	4	2	0
J.Battle	4	0	1
D.Knight Jr.	9	0	0
K.Dugger	8	0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
A.Rodgers	19/34	292	3	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
J.Warren	17	127	7.5
A.Rodgers	3	10	3.3
P.Freiermuth	1	1	1.0
T.Homer	1	0	0.0
L.Nichols	1	0	0.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
D.Washington	3/4	67	0
R.Wilson	3/6	60	1
J.Warren	3/4	49	0
D.Metcalf	3/5	31	1
P.Freiermuth	2/4	30	0

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
P.Queen	13	0	0
R.Jenkins	9	0	0
J.Ramsey	8	0	0
J.Brisker	8	0	0

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Pittsburgh Steelers