LV @ LAC

Raiders

2-0

Chargers

0-2

Final

Pregame model pick

LAC 59.3%

Missed · ATS win

Low

Model spread: LAC -3
Model total: 42.5
ATS pick: LV +8.5; -5.3 pt edge
Total pick: Pass; 0.0 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

LV spread+6.5

LV ML+260

Over43.5

LAC spread-6.5

LAC ML-325

Under43.5

Why the model likes LAC

The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.

Market priorhelps LAC+6.4 pts · +18.7%
Opening line LAC -8.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 1 game
Pass defensehurts LAC-1.7 pts · -4.9%
LAC +0.16 vs LV -1.03 EPA/dropback allowed (vs. league avg)
Rushing offensehurts LAC-0.9 pts · -2.6%
LAC -0.24 vs LV +0.52 EPA/rush (vs. league avg)
Point differentialhurts LAC-0.8 pts · -2.4%
LAC -12.0 vs LV +14.0 per game
Passing offensehurts LAC-0.6 pts · -1.7%
LAC -0.41 vs LV +0.01 EPA/dropback (vs. league avg)
Run defensehelps LAC+0.4 pts · +1.3%
LAC +0.02 vs LV +0.55 EPA/rush allowed (vs. league avg)
Home fieldhelps LAC+0.4 pts · +1.2%
LAC at home (1.7 pts)

Early-season sample (1 game), so the stats are shrunk toward average and the market carries more weight.

Model vs. market

LAC win probability

GameLens: 59%
Market: 73%
Difference: -14%

Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.

Matchup Lens

The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.

Edge: LVClear
LV pass protection vs LAC pass rush
LV sack rate allowed
0.0% (1st)
LAC sack rate generated
2.6% (27th)
Edge: LVClear
LV pass rush vs LAC offensive line
LAC sack rate allowed
10.0% (25th)
LV sack rate generated
15.6% (2nd)
Edge: LVClear
LV secondary vs LAC passing attack
LAC EPA per dropback
-0.38 (21st)
LV EPA per dropback allowed
-1.00 (2nd)
Edge: LVClear
LV red-zone defense vs LAC red-zone offense
LAC red-zone TD rate
67% (13th)
LV red-zone TD rate allowed
33% (2nd)
Edge: LACSlight
LAC big-play defense vs LV explosive plays
LV explosive-play rate
7.5% (21st)
LAC explosive-play rate allowed
6.9% (9th)

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% LV win probability

LAC aboveLV below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

clutchQ4 3:52
(Shotgun) O.Hampton up the middle to LV 46 for 2 yards (N.Dean). FUMBLES (N.Dean), RECOVERED by LV-J.Chinn at LV 41. J.Chinn to LAC 16 for 43 yards (J.Herbert).
WPA -29.2%EPA -8.19
clutchQ4 3:52
(Run formation) PENALTY on LV, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 46 - No Play.
WPA +18.4%
touchdownQ3 3:53
(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short right to C.White for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.
WPA -14.9%EPA +2.95
big playQ3 11:14
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass deep left to T.Harris pushed ob at LV 5 for 53 yards (J.Chinn).
WPA +12.2%EPA +5.09
touchdownQ2 11:51
(No Huddle, Shotgun) K.Cousins pass deep left to T.Tucker for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.
WPA -11.7%EPA +3.48
clutchQ4 2:59
(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short left to C.White for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.
WPA -11.4%EPA +2.53

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Highlight clips post during and after the game.

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
David Njoku LAC	Receiving Yards	O 23.5(-1.0 from open)	30.4	68%	+15.3%	9Miss
Ladd McConkey LAC	Receiving Yards	O 44.5(+3.0 from open)	52	63%	+10.8%	35Miss
Ashton Jeanty LV	Carries	O 15.5(-2.0 from open)	17	63%	+10.6%	21Hit
Mike Washington Jr. LV	Rushing Yards	O 17.5(-3.0 from open)	22.2	62%	+9.9%	7Miss
David Njoku LAC	Receptions	O 2.5	3	61%	+8.4%	1Miss
Omarion Hampton LAC	Receptions	U 2.5	2	61%	+8.4%	2Hit
Oronde Gadsden LAC	Receiving Yards	O 12.5(-10.0 from open)	16.4	60%	+7.9%	18Hit
Ashton Jeanty LV	Receiving Yards	O 25.5(-2.0 from open)	29.4	60%	+7.9%	15Miss
Quentin Johnston LAC	Receiving Yards	U 46.5(-4.0 from open)	40.6	60%	+7.6%	7Hit
Ashton Jeanty LV	Rushing Yards	O 62.5(-3.0 from open)	70.4	60%	+7.6%	48Miss
Ashton Jeanty LV	Rush + Rec Yards	O 92.5(-4.0 from open)	103.4	59%	+6.9%	63Miss
Ashton Jeanty LV	Receptions	O 3.5(-1.0 from open)	4	59%	+6.8%	4Hit
Kirk Cousins LV	Passing TDs	O 1.5(+1.0 from open)	1.8	58%	+6.0%	3Hit
Omarion Hampton LAC	Carries	U 16.5(+1.0 from open)	15.6	58%	+5.2%	23Miss
Omarion Hampton LAC	Rush + Rec Yards	U 78.5(-1.0 from open)	71.4	57%	+4.8%	115Miss
Keaton Mitchell LAC	Rushing Yards	U 22.5(-1.0 from open)	19.8	57%	+4.7%	24Miss
Omarion Hampton LAC	Receiving Yards	U 12.5(+2.0 from open)	10	57%	+4.2%	21Miss
Tre Tucker LV	Receptions	U 3.5	3.2	56%	+3.1%	5Miss
Quentin Johnston LAC	Receptions	U 3.5(-1.0 from open)	3.2	56%	+3.1%	1Hit
Ladd McConkey LAC	Receptions	O 3.5	3.8	56%	+3.1%	3Miss
Tre' Harris LAC	Receiving Yards	U 30.5(-3.0 from open)	28.4	55%	+3.1%	53Miss
Justin Herbert LAC	Rushing Yards	O 19.5	21.4	55%	+2.6%	2Miss
Omarion Hampton LAC	Rushing Yards	U 61.5(-3.0 from open)	57.8	55%	+2.4%	94Miss
Michael Mayer LV	Receiving Yards	U 44.5	42	54%	+2.1%	23Hit
Mike Washington Jr. LV	Carries	O 5.5	5.8	54%	+2.0%	3Miss
Ladd McConkey LAC	Carries	U 0.5	0.4	54%	+1.6%	0Hit
Justin Herbert LAC	Completions	U 19.5	19	54%	+1.5%	15Hit
Tre Tucker LV	Receiving Yards	U 34.5(-1.0 from open)	33	53%	+1.1%	119Miss
Justin Herbert LAC	Passing TDs	U 1.5	1.4	53%	+0.4%	1Hit
Oronde Gadsden LAC	Receptions	O 1.5(-1.0 from open)	1.6	53%	+0.4%	2Hit
Kirk Cousins LV	Passing Yards	U 193.5(+5.0 from open)	186.8	53%	+0.4%	253Miss
Jalen Nailor LV	Receiving Yards	U 32.5(-1.0 from open)	31.4	53%	+0.3%	9Hit
Kirk Cousins LV	Completions	O 19.5(+1.0 from open)	19.8	52%	0.0%	19Miss
Jalen Nailor LV	Receptions	O 2.5	2.6	52%	-0.2%	1Miss
Tre' Harris LAC	Receptions	O 2.5(-1.0 from open)	2.6	52%	-0.2%	1Miss
Michael Mayer LV	Receptions	O 5.5(+1.0 from open)	5.6	51%	-0.9%	3Miss
Justin Herbert LAC	Passing Yards	U 224.5(+1.0 from open)	221.4	51%	-1.3%	192Hit
Jack Bech LV	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Ladd McConkey LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Omarion Hampton LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	1Hit
Ashton Jeanty LV	Anytime TD	Yes	2	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Kirk Cousins LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
David Njoku LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Justin Herbert LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Connor Heyward LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Cody White LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	2Hit
Derius Davis LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Dylan Laube LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Jalen Nailor LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Tre Tucker LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	1Hit
Quentin Johnston LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Michael Mayer LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Oronde Gadsden LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	1Hit
Keaton Mitchell LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Tre' Harris LAC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Mike Washington Jr. LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Malik Benson LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Las Vegas Raiders

deep left32/3 · 82 yds

deep middle0—

deep right10/1 · 0 yds

short left1410/14 · 100 yds

short middle64/6 · 34 yds

short right64/6 · 41 yds

Line of scrimmage

30 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Los Angeles Chargers

deep left62/6 · 72 yds

deep middle0—

deep right20/2 · 0 yds

short left95/9 · 61 yds

short middle32/3 · 11 yds

short right86/8 · 48 yds

Line of scrimmage

28 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 78/126 (62%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00LV26–14
END GAME
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.0%
Q4 0:37LV3rd & 12 at LAC 4426–14
K.Cousins kneels to LAC 45 for -1 yards.
EPA-1.71
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 55%✓correct
Q4 0:59LV2nd & 11 at LAC 4326–14
K.Cousins kneels to LAC 44 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.83
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 81%✓correct
Q4 1:41LV1st & 10 at LAC 4226–14
K.Cousins kneels to LAC 43 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.84
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 88%✓correct
Q4 1:41LAC26–14
J.Scott kicks onside 22 yards from LAC 20 to LAC 42, fair catch by T.Tucker.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 1:41LAC2nd & 10 at LAC 6Score26–14
Team Safety
EPA-0.92
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
PredictedPass 93%✓correct
Q4 1:52LAC1st & 10 at LAC 624–14
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to T.Harris.
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
Air zoneshort left
TargetT.Harris (inc)
PredictedPass 86%✓correct
Q4 2:00LV4th & 2 at LAC 4024–14
A.Cole punts 34 yards to LAC 6, Center-A.Ward, downed by LV-D.Young.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 2:00LV4th & 2 at LAC 4024–14
Timeout #2 by LV at 02:00.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 2:00LV4th & 2 at LAC 4024–14
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 2:13LV3rd & 3 at LAC 4124–14
A.Jeanty up the middle to LAC 40 for 1 yard (D.Phillips).
EPA+2.16
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP0.2%
Yards1
PredictedRun 71%✓correct
Q4 2:13LV3rd & 3 at LAC 4124–14
Timeout #3 by LAC at 02:13.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 2:18LV2nd & 8 at LAC 4624–14
A.Jeanty up the middle to LAC 41 for 5 yards (N.Barrett).
EPA+2.89
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards5
PredictedRun 78%✓correct
Q4 2:18LV2nd & 8 at LAC 4624–14
Timeout #2 by LAC at 02:18.
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 2:24LV1st & 10 at LAC 4824–14
A.Jeanty right guard to LAC 46 for 2 yards (A.Mesidor; D.James). ** Injury Update: LV-A.Jeanty has returned to the game.
EPA+2.85
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP0.2%
Yards2
PredictedRun 86%✓correct
Q4 2:29LAC3rd & 11 at LAC 34Turnover24–14
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short left intended for D.Davis INTERCEPTED by H.Masses at LAC 48. H.Masses to LAC 48 for no gain (D.Davis).
EPA-3.12
WPA (home)-0.9%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
Air zoneshort left
TargetD.Davis (inc)
PredictedPass 92%✓correct
Q4 2:33LAC2nd & 11 at LAC 3424–14
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to Q.Johnston.
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)-0.7%
Home WP1.0%
Yards0
Air zonedeep left
TargetQ.Johnston (inc)
PredictedPass 78%✓correct
Q4 2:54LAC1st & 15 at LAC 3024–14
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short middle to L.McConkey to LAC 34 for 4 yards (N.Dean).
EPA-0.34
WPA (home)+0.3%
Home WP1.6%
Yards4
Air zoneshort middle
TargetL.McConkey
PredictedPass 77%✓correct
Q4 2:59LAC1st & 10 at LAC 3524–14
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short left to Q.Johnston to LAC 39 for 4 yards (T.Johnson; I.Pola-Mao).PENALTY on LAC, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 35 - No Play.
WPA (home)-0.9%
Home WP1.4%
Air zoneshort left
TargetQ.Johnston
Q4 2:59LV24–14
M.Gay kicks 65 yards from LV 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LAC 35. ** Injury Update: LV-D.Young has returned to the game.
WPA (home)+0.8%
Home WP2.3%
Q4 2:59LV3rd & 5 at LAC 11Score24–14
(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short left to C.White for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.
EPA+2.53
WPA (home)-11.4%
Home WP1.4%
Yards11
Air zoneshort left
TargetC.White
PredictedRun 51%×incorrect
Q4 3:03LV3rd & 5 at LAC 1117–14
Timeout #1 by LAC at 03:03.
WPA (home)-2.2%
Home WP12.9%
Q4 3:09LV2nd & 7 at LAC 1317–14
M.Washington right tackle to LAC 11 for 2 yards (T.Jefferson).
EPA+0.35
WPA (home)+2.1%
Home WP15.1%
Yards2
PredictedRun 69%✓correct
Q4 3:34LV2nd & 7 at LAC 1317–14
Timeout #1 by LAC at 03:34.
WPA (home)-2.4%
Home WP13.0%
Q4 3:42LV1st & 10 at LAC 1617–14
A.Jeanty right guard to LAC 13 for 3 yards (D.James; T.Tart). LV-A.Jeanty was injured during the play.
EPA+0.60
WPA (home)-0.3%
Home WP15.3%
Yards3
PredictedRun 80%✓correct
Q4 3:52LAC1st & 10 at LV 48Turnover17–14
(Shotgun) O.Hampton up the middle to LV 46 for 2 yards (N.Dean). FUMBLES (N.Dean), RECOVERED by LV-J.Chinn at LV 41. J.Chinn to LAC 16 for 43 yards (J.Herbert).
EPA-8.19
WPA (home)-29.2%
Home WP15.6%
Yards43
PredictedPass 55%×incorrect
Q4 3:52LAC4th & 1 at LAC 4617–14
(Run formation) PENALTY on LV, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 46 - No Play.
WPA (home)+18.4%
Home WP44.8%
Q4 3:52LAC4th & 1 at LAC 4617–14
Timeout #1 by LV at 03:52.
WPA (home)-3.2%
Home WP26.4%
Q4 4:49LAC3rd & 7 at LAC 4017–14
(Shotgun) J.Herbert sacked at LAC 36 for -4 yards (M.Koonce). FUMBLES (M.Koonce) [M.Koonce], recovered by LAC-T.Harris at LAC 46.
EPA+3.80
WPA (home)-8.0%
Home WP29.6%
PredictedPass 88%✓correct
Q4 5:29LAC2nd & 15 at LAC 3217–14
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right to O.Gadsden to LAC 40 for 8 yards (T.Booker).
EPA+0.32
WPA (home)+3.7%
Home WP37.6%
Yards8
Air zoneshort right
TargetO.Gadsden
PredictedPass 69%✓correct

Box score

Team stats	LV	LAC
Total yards	305	310
Yards / play	5.1	5
Turnovers	1	3
3rd down	4-14	5-14
Red zone	2-3	2-2
Possession	27:43	32:17

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
K.Cousins	19/29	253	3	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
A.Jeanty	21	48	2.3
M.Washington Jr.	3	7	2.3
K.Cousins	4	1	0.3
C.Heyward	1	1	1.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
T.Tucker	5/7	119	1
D.Young	1/1	27	0
J.Bech	2/2	25	0
C.White	2/2	24	2
M.Mayer	3/4	23	0

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
H.Masses	5	0	2
N.Dean	9	0.5	0
M.Koonce	3	1.5	0
Q.Walker	10	0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
J.Herbert	15/27	192	1	2

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
O.Hampton	23	94	4.1	1
K.Mitchell	5	24	4.8	0
Q.Johnston	1	7	7.0	0
J.Herbert	3	2	0.7	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
T.Harris	1/3	53	0
L.McConkey	3/3	35	0
O.Hampton	2/2	21	0
C.Kolar	3/3	21	0
O.Gadsden	2/2	18	1

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
C.Hart	4	0	1
K.Mack	3	1	0
D.Phillips	7	0	0
D.James Jr.	7	0	0

Model breakdown

Why the model likes LAC

Model vs. market

Matchup Lens

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Los Angeles Chargers