Seahawks
2-0
31
Cardinals
1-1
7
Final
Final · Game report
Seattle Seahawks rout ARI, 31-7
Seattle Seahawks controlled this one from start to finish and won by 24.
Play for play, SEA had the more efficient offense: +0.00 EPA per play for SEA versus -0.47 for ARI.
GameLens had SEA at 68% before kickoff, and the pick came in.
Play of the game · Q1 12:25 · 16% win-prob swing
(Shotgun) D.Lock pass deep right to J.Smith-Njigba for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.
How it was won
- Red zone: ARI finished drives (1-1) while SEA stalled (3-5).
- Third downs: SEA converted 6-13, which kept drives alive and the other offense off the field.
- SEA won through the air, averaging 0.58 EPA per dropback compared with -0.36 per run.
| SEA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| +0.00 | EPA / play | -0.47 |
| 43% | Success rate | 41% |
| 381 | Total yards | 151 |
| 5.7 | Yards / play | 3.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 3-5 | Red zone | 1-1 |
| 36:33 | Possession | 23:27 |
Pregame model pick
SEA 67.8%
Correct · ATS loss
- Model spread
- ARI +6
- Model total
- 42.9
- ATS pick
- ARI +10
- +3.8 pt edge
- Total pick
- U 44.5
- -1.6 pt edge
Model breakdown
Why the model likes SEA
The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.
- Market priorhelps SEA+7.5 pts · +21.5%
Opening line SEA -10, weighted 75% while the sample is 1 game
- Pass defensehurts SEA-0.5 pts · -1.4%
ARI -0.41 vs SEA -0.03 EPA/dropback allowed (vs. league avg)
- Home fieldhurts SEA-0.4 pts · -1.1%
ARI at home (1.7 pts)
- Run defensehurts SEA-0.4 pts · -1.0%
ARI -0.24 vs SEA +0.12 EPA/rush allowed (vs. league avg)
- Point differentialhurts SEA-0.3 pts · -0.8%
ARI +12.0 vs SEA +3.0 per game
- Rushing offensehelps SEA+0.2 pts · +0.5%
ARI +0.02 vs SEA +0.21 EPA/rush (vs. league avg)
- Passing offensehelps SEA+0.1 pts · +0.3%
ARI +0.16 vs SEA +0.25 EPA/dropback (vs. league avg)
Early-season sample (1 game), so the stats are shrunk toward average and the market carries more weight.
Model vs. market
SEA win probability
- GameLens
- 68%
- Market
- 66%
- Difference
- +2%
Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.
Matchup Lens
The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.
- Edge: SEAClear
SEA big-play defense vs ARI explosive plays
- ARI explosive-play rate
- 6.9% (24th)
- SEA explosive-play rate allowed
- 6.0% (7th)
- Edge: ARISlight
ARI pass protection vs SEA pass rush
- ARI sack rate allowed
- 2.6% (6th)
- SEA sack rate generated
- 8.3% (11th)
- Edge: ARISlight
ARI pass rush vs SEA offensive line
- SEA sack rate allowed
- 7.7% (20th)
- ARI sack rate generated
- 10.0% (8th)
- Edge: ARISlight
ARI run defense vs SEA run game
- SEA EPA per rush
- +0.24 (13th)
- ARI EPA per rush allowed
- -0.21 (6th)
- Edge: ARISlight
ARI passing attack vs SEA secondary
- ARI EPA per dropback
- +0.18 (12th)
- SEA EPA per dropback allowed
- -0.00 (18th)
Momentum tracker
0–100 score for who controls the game right now, weighted toward the most recent plays by EPA.
Final momentum
50/100SEA · Surging
Recent swing plays
- -50Q4 0:30Z.Knight left tackle to SEA 41 for 6 yards (R.Mills; D.Hall).
- -45Q4 1:11Direct snap to A.Barner. A.Barner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.
- +31Q4 1:11Z.Knight up the middle to SEA 47 for 18 yards (J.Neal).
Positive values push momentum toward ARI.
Live win probability
Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.
Win probability
100.0% SEA win probability
Key moments
Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.
Key moments
- touchdownQ1 12:25
(Shotgun) D.Lock pass deep right to J.Smith-Njigba for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.
WPA -16.3%EPA +7.00 - touchdownQ2 14:57
(Shotgun) J.Brissett pass short left to T.McBride for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.
WPA +11.6%EPA +2.57 - defenseQ2 13:36
(Shotgun) J.Price up the middle to ARZ 45 for 2 yards (Z.Collins; Ma.Wilson). FUMBLES (Z.Collins), RECOVERED by ARZ-Z.Collins at ARZ 47.
WPA +10.8%EPA -8.92 - touchdownQ3 12:27
(Shotgun) D.Lock pass short middle to J.Smith-Njigba for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.
WPA -10.2%EPA +2.35 - defenseQ2 0:01
(Shotgun) D.Lock sacked at SEA 35 for -16 yards (B.Baker).
WPA +6.3%EPA -1.10 - defenseQ3 11:39
(Shotgun) J.Brissett pass deep left intended for Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by J.Love [D.Hall] at ARZ 44. J.Love ran ob at ARZ 44 for no gain.
WPA -5.7%EPA -6.01
Highlights
Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.
Highlights
Highlight clips post during and after the game.
Player props
Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.
Player props
Passing target maps
Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.
Target maps
27 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
29 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
Play-by-play
EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.
Play-by-play
Play-call model: 79/119 (66%) run/pass correct
- Q4 0:00ARI31–7
END GAME
WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP0.0% - Q4 0:30ARI1st & 10 at SEA 4731–7
Z.Knight left tackle to SEA 41 for 6 yards (R.Mills; D.Hall).
EPA-3.02WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards6PredictedPass 93%×incorrect - Q4 1:11ARI1st & 10 at ARI 3531–7
Z.Knight up the middle to SEA 47 for 18 yards (J.Neal).
EPA+1.30WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards18PredictedPass 93%×incorrect - Q4 1:11SEA31–7
J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the ARZ 35.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 1:11SEA4th & Goal at ARI 1Score31–7
Direct snap to A.Barner. A.Barner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.
EPA+2.44WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards1PredictedRun 95%✓correct - Q4 1:15SEA4th & 1 at ARI 124–7
Timeout #2 by SEA at 01:15.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 2:00SEA3rd & Goal at ARI 124–7
J.Jones reported in as eligible. E.Wilson up the middle to ARZ 1 for no gain (Z.Collins).
EPA-0.78WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards0PredictedRun 95%✓correct - Q4 2:00SEA3rd & 1 at ARI 124–7
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 2:22SEA2nd & Goal at ARI 124–7
G.Holani up the middle to ARZ 1 for no gain (D.Stills; Ma.Wilson).
EPA-0.63WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards0PredictedRun 95%✓correct - Q4 3:06SEA1st & Goal at ARI 324–7
G.Holani up the middle to ARZ 1 for 2 yards (Ma.Wilson; J.Gibbens).
EPA-0.27WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards2PredictedRun 94%✓correct - Q4 3:20SEA3rd & 8 at ARI 1324–7
G.Holani left tackle to ARZ 7 for 6 yards (B.Baker; D.Robinson).PENALTY on ARZ-K.Clark, Unnecessary Roughness, 4 yards, enforced at ARZ 7.
EPA+2.22WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards6PredictedRun 57%✓correct - Q4 4:04SEA2nd & 9 at ARI 1424–7
E.Wilson right guard to ARZ 13 for 1 yard (J.Burch).
EPA-0.57WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards1PredictedRun 82%✓correct - Q4 4:47SEA1st & 10 at ARI 1524–7
E.Wilson up the middle to ARZ 14 for 1 yard (B.Browning).
EPA-0.59WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards1PredictedRun 89%✓correct - Q4 4:47SEA1st & 10 at ARI 1524–7
Timeout #1 by SEA at 04:47.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 5:34SEA2nd & 3 at ARI 2224–7
E.Wilson up the middle to ARZ 15 for 7 yards (R.Lopez; B.Baker).
EPA+1.91WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards7PredictedRun 83%✓correct - Q4 6:18SEA1st & 10 at ARI 2924–7
(Shotgun) E.Wilson up the middle to ARZ 22 for 7 yards (Ma.Wilson).
EPA+0.17WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards7PredictedRun 76%✓correct - Q4 7:04SEA3rd & 8 at ARI 3824–7
(Shotgun) E.Wilson right guard to ARZ 29 for 9 yards (W.Nolen; A.Wingard).
EPA+1.95WPA (home)-0.2%Home WP0.1%Yards9PredictedPass 66%×incorrect - Q4 7:46SEA2nd & 10 at ARI 4024–7
E.Wilson right tackle to ARZ 38 for 2 yards (B.Baker; J.Gibbens).
EPA-0.45WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.3%Yards2PredictedRun 64%✓correct - Q4 7:50SEA2nd & 10 at ARI 4024–7
D.Lock pass incomplete short left to E.Wilson (B.Browning).Penalty on ARZ-D.Burke, Defensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at ARZ 40 - No Play.Penalty on SEA-A.Barner, Offensive Holding, offsetting.
EPA0.00WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP0.3%Yards0Air zoneshort leftTargetE.Wilson (inc)PredictedRun 64%×incorrect - Q4 8:35SEA1st & 10 at ARI 4024–7
E.Wilson up the middle to ARZ 40 for no gain (B.Baker).
EPA-0.71WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP0.4%Yards0PredictedRun 76%✓correct - Q4 9:16SEA3rd & 2 at ARI 4424–7
(Shotgun) D.Lock pass short right to J.Smith-Njigba to ARZ 40 for 4 yards (D.Stills).
EPA+1.26WPA (home)-0.4%Home WP0.3%Yards4Air zoneshort rightTargetJ.Smith-NjigbaPredictedRun 79%×incorrect - Q4 10:04SEA2nd & 7 at ARI 4924–7
G.Holani up the middle to ARZ 44 for 5 yards (R.Lopez).
EPA-0.07WPA (home)-0.2%Home WP0.7%Yards5PredictedRun 63%✓correct - Q4 10:45SEA1st & 10 at SEA 4824–7
E.Wilson up the middle to ARZ 49 for 3 yards (Ma.Wilson; D.Stills).
EPA-0.33WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP0.9%Yards3PredictedRun 75%✓correct - Q4 11:25SEA1st & 10 at SEA 3024–7
E.Wilson right tackle to SEA 48 for 18 yards (J.Gibbens).
EPA+1.30WPA (home)-0.2%Home WP0.8%Yards18PredictedRun 75%✓correct - Q4 11:25SEA1st & 10 at SEA 3024–7
Official Timeout at 11:25.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP1.0% - Q4 11:35ARI4th & 9 at ARI 3624–7
B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to SEA 18, Center-C.Kreiter. R.Shaheed ran ob at SEA 30 for 12 yards (C.Simon).
WPA (home)-0.2%Home WP1.1% - Q4 12:16ARI3rd & 2 at ARI 4324–7
(Shotgun) J.Brissett sacked at ARZ 36 for -7 yards (J.Reed).
EPA-7.72WPA (home)-1.7%Home WP1.3%PredictedPass 67%✓correct - Q4 12:20ARI2nd & 2 at ARI 4324–7
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to Mi.Wilson.
EPA-0.70WPA (home)-0.6%Home WP3.0%Yards0Air zoneshort middleTargetMi.Wilson (inc)PredictedPass 62%✓correct - Q4 12:40ARI1st & 10 at ARI 3524–7
(Shotgun) J.Brissett pass short right to K.Bourne to ARZ 43 for 8 yards (D.Witherspoon).
EPA+0.30WPA (home)+0.8%Home WP3.6%Yards8Air zoneshort rightTargetK.BournePredictedPass 71%✓correct - Q4 12:40SEA24–7
J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to end zone, Touchback to the ARZ 35.
WPA (home)+0.6%Home WP2.9%
Box score
Box score
| Team stats | SEA | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 381 | 151 |
| Yards / play | 5.7 | 3.2 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| 3rd down | 6-13 | 3-12 |
| Red zone | 3-5 | 1-1 |
| Possession | 36:33 | 23:27 |
Seattle Seahawks
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 D.Lock | 19/26 | 235 | 3 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 J.Smith-Njigba | 9/11 | 155 | 3 |
 R.Shaheed | 3/6 | 35 | 0 |
 C.Kupp | 2/2 | 20 | 0 |
 E.Arroyo | 1/1 | 17 | 0 |
 J.Price | 1/2 | 8 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 L.Williams | 6 | 1 | 0 |
 J.Love | 3 | 0 | 1 |
 E.Jones IV | 8 | 0 | 0 |
 D.Witherspoon | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Arizona Cardinals
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 J.Brissett | 17/28 | 95 | 1 | 1 |
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 J.Love | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
 B.Knight | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
 T.Allgeier | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| J.Brissett | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 T.McBride | 8/10 | 41 | 1 |
 M.Wilson | 2/7 | 18 | 0 |
| J.Love | 3/3 | 16 | 0 |
 K.Bourne | 2/3 | 11 | 0 |
| T.Allgeier | 2/2 | 9 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 B.Baker | 11 | 1 | 0 |
 M.Wilson Sr. | 9 | 0 | 0 |
 J.Gibbens | 9 | 0 | 0 |
 A.Wingard | 8 | 0 | 0 |
