Jets
1-2
24
Lions
2-1
31
Final
Pregame model pick
DET 59.3%
Correct · ATS win
- Model spread
- DET -3
- Model total
- 46.2
- ATS pick
- NYJ +9.5
- -6.3 pt edge
- Total pick
- O 44.5
- +1.7 pt edge
Live win probability
Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.
Win probability
100.0% DET win probability
Key moments
Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.
Key moments
- clutchQ4 4:06
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep right to G.Wilson to DET 1 for 22 yards (D.Reed).Penalty on DET-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.New York Jets challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep right to G.Wilson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on DET-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. G.Smith pass to S.Shepard is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
WPA -28.7%EPA +4.30 - clutchQ4 4:06
(Shotgun) J.Goff pass deep middle to I.TeSlaa to NYJ 16 for 49 yards (A.Cisco).
WPA +13.5%EPA +3.53 - clutchQ4 0:51
(Shotgun) G.Smith sacked at DET 41 for -13 yards (C.Clark). FUMBLES (C.Clark) [C.Clark], RECOVERED by DET-J.Campbell at DET 45. J.Campbell to NYJ 43 for 12 yards (B.Allen).
WPA +11.0%EPA -6.97 - touchdownQ2 5:33
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep right to K.Sadiq for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.
WPA -10.9%EPA +3.15 - clutchQ4 2:25
(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short right to J.Gibbs for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.
WPA +10.6%EPA +2.53 - clutchQ4 4:44
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass short left to B.Allen to DET 23 for -4 yards (C.Izien).
WPA +9.0%EPA +0.30
Highlights
Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.
Highlights
- Recaps
New York Jets vs. Detroit Lions Game Highlights
- Touchdowns
Jahmyr Gibbs races 17 yards for Lions TD
- Touchdowns
Jahmyr Gibbs punches in for his second TD of the game
- Touchdowns
Jeremy Ruckert hauls in 4-yard TD for Jets
- Clutch
Jahmyr Gibbs' third TD of the day puts that Lions up late
- Touchdowns
Garrett Wilson TD, 2-pointer tie it for Jets
Player props
Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.
Player props
Passing target maps
Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.
Target maps
39 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
32 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
Play-by-play
EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.
Play-by-play
Play-call model: 78/125 (62%) run/pass correct
- Q4 0:00DET24–31
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP100.0% - Q4 0:29DET2nd & 11 at NYJ 4424–31
J.Goff kneels to NYJ 45 for -1 yards.
EPA-2.46WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-1PredictedPass 59%×incorrect - Q4 0:45DET1st & 10 at NYJ 4324–31
J.Goff kneels to NYJ 44 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.84WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-1PredictedRun 55%✓correct - Q4 0:51NYJ2nd & 10 at DET 28Turnover24–31
(Shotgun) G.Smith sacked at DET 41 for -13 yards (C.Clark). FUMBLES (C.Clark) [C.Clark], RECOVERED by DET-J.Campbell at DET 45. J.Campbell to NYJ 43 for 12 yards (B.Allen).
EPA-6.97WPA (home)+11.0%Home WP99.9%PredictedPass 89%✓correct - Q4 0:51NYJ2nd & 10 at DET 2824–31
Timeout #3 by NYJ at 00:51.
WPA (home)+0.7%Home WP88.9% - Q4 0:56NYJ1st & 10 at DET 2824–31
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass incomplete short left to G.Wilson. NYJ-G.Wilson was injured during the play.
EPA+1.30WPA (home)+3.6%Home WP88.2%Yards0Air zoneshort leftTargetG.Wilson (inc)PredictedPass 81%✓correct - Q4 1:01NYJ2nd & 3 at DET 3324–31
(No Huddle, Shotgun) G.Smith pass short left to J.Ruckert pushed ob at DET 28 for 5 yards (C.Izien).
EPA+0.69WPA (home)+1.9%Home WP84.7%Yards5Air zoneshort leftTargetJ.RuckertPredictedPass 74%✓correct - Q4 1:21NYJ1st & 10 at DET 4024–31
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass short left to B.Allen to DET 33 for 7 yards (D.Barnes).
EPA+0.17WPA (home)-3.5%Home WP82.8%Yards7Air zoneshort leftTargetB.AllenPredictedPass 81%✓correct - Q4 1:45NYJ3rd & 3 at DET 4724–31
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass short middle to G.Wilson to DET 40 for 7 yards (R.McCreary).
EPA+1.53WPA (home)-1.4%Home WP86.3%Yards7Air zoneshort middleTargetG.WilsonPredictedPass 92%✓correct - Q4 1:54NYJ2nd & 10 at NYJ 4624–31
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass short right to K.Sadiq pushed ob at DET 47 for 7 yards (D.Reed).
EPA+0.19WPA (home)-3.2%Home WP87.7%Yards7Air zoneshort rightTargetK.SadiqPredictedPass 88%✓correct - Q4 2:00NYJ1st & 10 at NYJ 4624–31
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass short left to B.Allen pushed ob at NYJ 46 for no gain (T.Nowaske).
EPA-0.72WPA (home)+2.1%Home WP90.9%Yards0Air zoneshort leftTargetB.AllenPredictedPass 59%✓correct - Q4 2:00NYJ1st & 10 at NYJ 4624–31
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)+0.6%Home WP88.8% - Q4 2:19NYJ1st & 10 at NYJ 3124–31
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass short middle to K.Sadiq to NYJ 46 for 15 yards (D.Barnes; R.McCreary).
EPA+4.97WPA (home)-2.6%Home WP88.2%Yards15Air zoneshort middleTargetK.SadiqPredictedPass 59%✓correct - Q4 2:25DET24–31
J.Bates kicks 60 yards from DET 35 to NYJ 5. I.Williams to NYJ 31 for 26 yards (K.Dorsey).
WPA (home)-1.2%Home WP90.8% - Q4 2:25DET3rd & 5 at NYJ 11Score24–31
(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short right to J.Gibbs for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.
EPA+2.53WPA (home)+10.6%Home WP92.0%Yards11Air zoneshort rightTargetJ.GibbsPredictedPass 63%✓correct - Q4 2:30DET3rd & 5 at NYJ 1124–24
Timeout #2 by NYJ at 02:30.
WPA (home)+1.2%Home WP81.4% - Q4 2:40DET2nd & 11 at NYJ 1724–24
(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short left to J.Gibbs to NYJ 11 for 6 yards (K.Enagbare).
EPA+0.85WPA (home)+3.3%Home WP80.2%Yards6Air zoneshort leftTargetJ.GibbsPredictedPass 66%✓correct - Q4 3:15DET1st & 10 at NYJ 1624–24
J.Gibbs left end to NYJ 17 for -1 yards (D.Bailey).
EPA-0.84WPA (home)-2.9%Home WP77.0%Yards-1PredictedPass 52%×incorrect - Q4 4:06DET1st & 10 at DET 3524–24
(Shotgun) J.Goff pass deep middle to I.TeSlaa to NYJ 16 for 49 yards (A.Cisco).
EPA+3.53WPA (home)+13.5%Home WP79.9%Yards49Air zonedeep middleTargetI.TeSlaaPredictedPass 52%✓correct - Q4 4:06NYJ24–24
J.Sanders kicks 65 yards from NYJ 35 to end zone, Touchback to the DET 35.
WPA (home)+5.0%Home WP66.4% - Q4 4:06NYJ4th & 6 at DET 23Score24–24
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep right to G.Wilson to DET 1 for 22 yards (D.Reed).Penalty on DET-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.New York Jets challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep right to G.Wilson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on DET-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. G.Smith pass to S.Shepard is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
EPA+4.30WPA (home)-28.7%Home WP61.4%Yards23Air zonedeep rightTargetG.WilsonPredictedPass 89%✓correct - Q4 4:11NYJ4th & 6 at DET 2316–24
Timeout #1 by NYJ at 04:11.
WPA (home)+1.5%Home WP90.1% - Q4 4:44NYJ3rd & 2 at DET 1916–24
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass short left to B.Allen to DET 23 for -4 yards (C.Izien).
EPA+0.30WPA (home)+9.0%Home WP88.6%Yards-4Air zoneshort leftTargetB.AllenPredictedPass 55%✓correct - Q4 5:21NYJ2nd & 3 at DET 2016–24
B.Allen up the middle to DET 19 for 1 yard (D.Reed; A.Hutchinson).
EPA-0.57WPA (home)+1.1%Home WP79.6%Yards1PredictedPass 50%×incorrect - Q4 6:06NYJ1st & 10 at DET 2716–24
B.Allen up the middle to DET 20 for 7 yards (J.Campbell; C.Izien).
EPA+0.17WPA (home)-3.8%Home WP78.5%Yards7PredictedPass 60%×incorrect - Q4 6:39NYJ1st & 10 at DET 4216–24
G.Smith pass short right to G.Wilson pushed ob at DET 27 for 15 yards (R.McCreary).
EPA+1.08WPA (home)-2.6%Home WP82.3%Yards15Air zoneshort rightTargetG.WilsonPredictedPass 60%✓correct - Q4 7:16NYJ3rd & 4 at DET 4816–24
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass short left to G.Wilson to DET 42 for 6 yards (E.Rakestraw; C.Clark).
EPA+1.52WPA (home)-2.7%Home WP84.9%Yards6Air zoneshort leftTargetG.WilsonPredictedPass 79%✓correct - Q4 7:58NYJ2nd & 8 at NYJ 4816–24
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass short left to G.Wilson to DET 48 for 4 yards (R.McCreary) [A.McNeill].
EPA-0.19WPA (home)-0.2%Home WP87.6%Yards4Air zoneshort leftTargetG.WilsonPredictedPass 72%✓correct - Q4 8:32NYJ1st & 10 at NYJ 4616–24
B.Allen left tackle to NYJ 48 for 2 yards (T.Nowaske).
EPA-0.46WPA (home)+1.3%Home WP87.8%Yards2PredictedPass 60%×incorrect - Q4 8:32NYJ1st & 10 at NYJ 4516–24
Official Timeout at 08:32.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP86.5%
Box score
Box score
| Team stats | NYJ | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 335 | 381 |
| Yards / play | 5.5 | 6 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| 3rd down | 6-12 | 5-10 |
| Red zone | 2-3 | 4-5 |
| Possession | 28:30 | 31:30 |
New York Jets
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 G.Smith | 31/37 | 321 | 3 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 G.Wilson | 10/13 | 107 | 1 |
 K.Sadiq | 7/8 | 105 | 1 |
 J.Ruckert | 5/5 | 39 | 1 |
 B.Hall | 3/3 | 23 | 0 |
 I.Williams | 1/2 | 21 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 D.Davis | 10 | 1 | 0 |
 A.Cisco | 6 | 1 | 0 |
 J.Sherwood | 8 | 0 | 0 |
 D.Belton | 7 | 0 | 0 |
