Panthers
1-1
34
Falcons
0-2
3
Final
Pregame model pick
ATL 53.9%
Missed
- Model spread
- ATL -1.5
- Model total
- 46.3
- ATS pick
- Pass
- -0.2 pt edge
- Total pick
- O 43.5
- +2.8 pt edge
Model breakdown
Why the model likes ATL
The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.
- Passing offensehurts ATL-1.6 pts · -4.7%
ATL -1.21 vs CAR +0.20 EPA/dropback (vs. league avg)
- Market priorhelps ATL+1.1 pts · +3.3%
Opening line ATL -1.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 1 game
- Pass defensehelps ATL+0.9 pts · +2.5%
ATL -0.10 vs CAR +0.67 EPA/dropback allowed (vs. league avg)
- Point differentialhelps ATL+0.5 pts · +1.4%
ATL -7.0 vs CAR -22.0 per game
- Home fieldhelps ATL+0.4 pts · +1.3%
ATL at home (1.7 pts)
- Run defensehelps ATL+0.3 pts · +0.9%
ATL +0.61 vs CAR +0.58 EPA/rush allowed (vs. league avg)
- Rushing offensehurts ATL-0.3 pts · -0.8%
ATL -0.11 vs CAR +0.14 EPA/rush (vs. league avg)
Early-season sample (1 game), so the stats are shrunk toward average and the market carries more weight.
Model vs. market
ATL win probability
- GameLens
- 54%
- Market
- 44%
- Difference
- +10%
Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.
Matchup Lens
The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.
- Edge: CARClear
CAR run game vs ATL run defense
- CAR EPA per rush
- +0.17 (15th)
- ATL EPA per rush allowed
- +0.64 (30th)
- Edge: ATLClear
ATL explosive plays vs CAR big-play defense
- ATL explosive-play rate
- 12.3% (9th)
- CAR explosive-play rate allowed
- 12.9% (27th)
- Edge: CARClear
CAR pass rush vs ATL offensive line
- ATL sack rate allowed
- 15.4% (29th)
- CAR sack rate generated
- 6.5% (18th)
Live win probability
Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.
Win probability
100.0% CAR win probability
Key moments
Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.
Key moments
- touchdownQ1 10:48
(Shotgun) B.Young pass short left to C.Hubbard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.
WPA -9.4%EPA +2.70 - big playQ1 12:03
(Shotgun) B.Young pass deep right to T.McMillan to ATL 5 for 26 yards (Aj.Terrell).PENALTY on ATL-G.Dexter, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at ATL 5.
WPA -8.5%EPA +3.41 - defenseQ1 15:00
C.Rush scrambles right end to ATL 29 for 9 yards (Z.Wheatley). FUMBLES (Z.Wheatley), RECOVERED by CAR-N.Scott at ATL 35. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
WPA -8.2%EPA -4.52 - big playQ2 0:48
(Shotgun) B.Young pass deep middle to X.Legette to ATL 10 for 55 yards (M.Hughes).
WPA -7.0%EPA +5.73 - defenseQ1 9:07
(Shotgun) C.Rush pass short middle intended for Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by B.Okereke (D.Lloyd) at CAR 41. B.Okereke to CAR 44 for 3 yards (K.Pitts; D.London).
WPA -5.4%EPA -7.92 - touchdownQ2 0:20
(Shotgun) B.Young pass short right to D.Waller for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.
WPA -4.6%EPA +2.35
Highlights
Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.
Highlights
Highlight clips post during and after the game.
Player props
Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.
Player props
Passing target maps
Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.
Target maps
33 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
32 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
Play-by-play
EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.
Play-by-play
Play-call model: 80/131 (61%) run/pass correct
- Q4 0:00CAR34–3
END GAME
WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP0.0% - Q4 0:42CAR1st & 10 at ATL 4634–3
K.Pickett kneels to 50 for -4 yards.
EPA-3.09WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards-4PredictedRun 95%✓correct - Q4 0:50ATL2nd & 10 at CAR 47Turnover34–3
(Shotgun) J.Strand sacked at ATL 47 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by CAR-A.Hall at ATL 46.
EPA-5.39WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%PredictedPass 97%✓correct - Q4 0:57ATL1st & 10 at CAR 4734–3
(Shotgun) J.Strand pass incomplete short left [A.Hall].
EPA-0.72WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards0PredictedPass 95%✓correct - Q4 1:05ATL4th & 6 at ATL 4634–3
(Shotgun) J.Strand pass short left to A.Hooper to CAR 47 for 7 yards.
EPA+2.55WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards7Air zoneshort leftTargetA.HooperPredictedPass 97%✓correct - Q4 1:46ATL3rd & 10 at ATL 4234–3
(Shotgun) J.Strand pass short middle to Br.Robinson to ATL 46 for 4 yards (B.Okereke).
EPA-0.34WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards4Air zoneshort middleTargetBr.RobinsonPredictedPass 97%✓correct - Q4 1:49ATL2nd & 10 at ATL 4234–3
(Shotgun) J.Strand pass incomplete short right to C.Blair (J.Moon).
EPA-0.70WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards0Air zoneshort rightTargetC.Blair (inc)PredictedPass 97%✓correct - Q4 1:53ATL1st & 10 at ATL 4234–3
J.Strand pass incomplete short right to A.Hooper.
EPA-0.72WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards0Air zoneshort rightTargetA.Hooper (inc)PredictedPass 95%✓correct - Q4 2:00ATL2nd & 7 at ATL 3134–3
J.Strand pass short right to Z.Branch pushed ob at ATL 42 for 11 yards (J.Moon).
EPA+1.34WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards11Air zoneshort rightTargetZ.BranchPredictedPass 92%✓correct - Q4 2:00ATL2nd & 8 at ATL 3034–3
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 2:42ATL1st & 10 at ATL 2834–3
Br.Robinson left guard to ATL 31 for 3 yards (T.Incoom; A.Hall).
EPA+4.58WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards3PredictedPass 86%×incorrect - Q4 2:49ATL2nd & 5 at ATL 2034–3
J.Strand scrambles right end pushed ob at ATL 28 for 8 yards (J.Moon).
EPA+1.02WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards8PredictedPass 88%×incorrect - Q4 3:23ATL1st & 10 at ATL 1534–3
Br.Robinson left tackle to ATL 20 for 5 yards (A.Hall; A.Evans).
EPA-0.08WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards5PredictedPass 86%×incorrect - Q4 3:30CAR4th & 13 at CAR 4034–3
S.Martin punts 45 yards to ATL 15, Center-J.Jansen, fair catch by Z.Branch.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 4:16CAR3rd & 13 at CAR 4034–3
A.Dillon left tackle to CAR 40 for no gain (C.Harris).
EPA-0.78WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards0PredictedRun 74%✓correct - Q4 4:59CAR2nd & 9 at CAR 4434–3
A.Dillon right end to CAR 40 for -4 yards (Z.Smith).
EPA-1.21WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards-4PredictedRun 90%✓correct - Q4 5:45CAR1st & 10 at CAR 4334–3
A.Dillon left guard to CAR 44 for 1 yard (S.Brown; L.London). ** Injury Update: CAR-M.Evans has returned to the game.
EPA-0.59WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards1PredictedRun 87%✓correct - Q4 5:45CAR1st & 10 at CAR 4334–3
Official Timeout at 05:45.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 5:50ATL4th & 17 at CAR 3534–3
N.Folk 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 6:08ATL4th & 7 at CAR 2534–3
(Shotgun) J.Strand scrambles left end pushed ob at CAR 17 for 8 yards (B.Okereke).PENALTY on ATL-M.Jerrell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 25 - No Play.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 6:13ATL3rd & 7 at CAR 2534–3
(Shotgun) J.Strand pass incomplete short right to A.Hooper (W.Lee) [B.Okereke].
EPA-0.85WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards0Air zoneshort rightTargetA.Hooper (inc)PredictedPass 97%✓correct - Q4 6:48ATL2nd & 10 at CAR 2834–3
(Shotgun) J.Strand pass short left to J.Dotson to CAR 25 for 3 yards (M.Jackson).
EPA-0.32WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards3Air zoneshort leftTargetJ.DotsonPredictedPass 91%✓correct - Q4 6:53ATL1st & 10 at CAR 2834–3
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Strand pass incomplete short middle to C.Blair.
EPA-0.71WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards0Air zoneshort middleTargetC.Blair (inc)PredictedPass 85%✓correct - Q4 7:23ATL3rd & 4 at CAR 3334–3
(Shotgun) Br.Robinson up the middle to CAR 28 for 5 yards (B.Okereke).
EPA+1.44WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards5PredictedPass 94%×incorrect - Q4 7:58ATL2nd & 7 at CAR 3634–3
Br.Robinson right guard to CAR 33 for 3 yards (A.Evans).
EPA-0.32WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards3PredictedPass 91%×incorrect - Q4 8:31ATL1st & 10 at CAR 3934–3
(Shotgun) J.Strand pass short left to O.Zaccheaus to CAR 36 for 3 yards (T.Moehrig).
EPA-0.33WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards3Air zoneshort leftTargetO.ZaccheausPredictedPass 84%✓correct - Q4 9:01ATL2nd & 6 at CAR 4734–3
J.Strand scrambles right end ran ob at CAR 39 for 8 yards (J.Moon).
EPA+1.07WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards8PredictedPass 86%×incorrect - Q4 9:35ATL1st & 10 at ATL 4934–3
Br.Robinson left guard to CAR 47 for 4 yards (C.Jackson).
EPA-0.21WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards4PredictedPass 84%×incorrect - Q4 10:08ATL1st & 10 at ATL 3634–3
(Shotgun) J.Strand pass short left to A.Hooper to ATL 49 for 13 yards (T.Incoom).
EPA+0.94WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards13Air zoneshort leftTargetA.HooperPredictedPass 84%✓correct - Q4 10:08ATL1st & 10 at ATL 3634–3
Official Timeout at 10:08.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%
Box score
Box score
| Team stats | CAR | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 340 | 286 |
| Yards / play | 5.7 | 4.3 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 5 |
| 3rd down | 6-14 | 4-13 |
| Red zone | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Possession | 29:31 | 30:29 |
Carolina Panthers
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 B.Young | 23/36 | 287 | 3 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 T.McMillan | 5/10 | 101 | 0 |
 J.Coker | 8/9 | 66 | 0 |
 X.Legette | 2/4 | 64 | 0 |
 D.Waller | 3/3 | 33 | 2 |
 M.Evans | 1/1 | 13 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 D.Lloyd | 9 | 1 | 2 |
 B.Okereke | 9 | 0 | 1 |
 J.Phillips | 2 | 1 | 0 |
 A.Hall | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Atlanta Falcons
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 C.Rush | 10/17 | 86 | 0 | 2 |
| JSJ.Strand | 8/15 | 59 | 0 | 1 |
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 B.Robinson | 16 | 72 | 4.5 | 0 |
 B.Robinson Jr. | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 |
| C.Rush | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| JSJ.Strand | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
 D.London | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.London | 4/5 | 51 | 0 |
 A.Hooper | 2/4 | 20 | 0 |
| B.Robinson Jr. | 2/2 | 16 | 0 |
 K.Pitts Sr. | 1/3 | 15 | 0 |
 Z.Branch | 2/2 | 14 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 X.Watts | 7 | 0 | 0 |
 J.Bates III | 7 | 0 | 0 |
 C.Thomas | 4 | 0.5 | 0 |
 M.Hughes | 5 | 0 | 0 |
