KC @ MIA

Chiefs

3-0

Dolphins

0-3

Final

Pregame model pick

KC 75.6%

Correct · ATS win

Medium

Model spread: MIA +9.5
Model total: 45.5
ATS pick: KC -7; -2.4 pt edge
Total pick: Pass; +1.0 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

KC spread-10

KC ML-600

Over45.5

MIA spread+10

MIA ML+440

Under45.5

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% KC win probability

MIA aboveKC below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

big playQ4 5:16
P.Mahomes pass deep right to R.Rice to MIA 15 for 34 yards (C.Johnson) [Z.Sieler].
WPA -4.4%EPA +3.27
big playQ3 14:15
M.Willis pass deep middle to G.Dulcich to KC 30 for 42 yards (N.Williams).
WPA +4.0%EPA +3.63
defenseQ2 3:16
(Shotgun) M.Willis up the middle to KC 28 for 3 yards (D.Tranquill).Kansas City challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) M.Willis up the middle to KC 28 for 3 yards (D.Tranquill, L.Sneed). FUMBLES (L.Sneed), RECOVERED by KC-L.Sneed at KC 25.
WPA -3.8%EPA -4.51
defenseQ2 2:00
(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for R.Rice INTERCEPTED by J.Rodriguez (D.Trader) at MIA 29. J.Rodriguez to MIA 47 for 18 yards (X.Worthy).
WPA +3.4%EPA -8.52
big playQ1 14:55
P.Mahomes pass deep middle to T.Kelce to MIA 19 for 48 yards (D.Trader).
WPA -3.3%EPA +3.46
big playQ2 6:10
M.Willis pass short middle to C.Bell pushed ob at KC 44 for 44 yards (A.Gilman; J.Bassa).
WPA +2.8%EPA +3.17

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Recaps
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins: Game Highlights
Big plays
Kenneth Walker III dashes in to give the Chiefs an early lead
Touchdowns
Ollie Gordon II muscles it in for a Dolphins TD
Touchdowns
Patrick Mahomes shovels it to Kenneth Walker III for his 2nd TD of the game
Big plays
Patrick Mahomes' pass bobbled and picked off by the Dolphins
Big plays
Dolphins RB De'Von Achane takes big hit, leaves with knee injury
Big plays
Patrick Mahomes links up with Travis Kelce to pad the Chiefs' lead

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
Tyquan Thornton KC	Receiving Yards	O 20.5	28	69%	+16.7%	22Hit
Emmett Johnson KC	Receiving Yards	O 10.5	17.7	68%	+16.0%	0Miss
Travis Kelce KC	Receiving Yards	O 51.5	63	67%	+14.8%	59Hit
Kenneth Walker III KC	Rushing Yards	O 87.5(+1.0 from open)	106.7	67%	+14.5%	70Miss
Kenneth Walker III KC	Carries	O 17.5(-1.0 from open)	19.5	66%	+13.7%	18Hit
Kenneth Walker III KC	Rush + Rec Yards	O 114.5(+1.0 from open)	137.8	66%	+13.4%	73Miss
Kenneth Walker III KC	Receiving Yards	O 22.5	28.2	65%	+12.3%	3Miss
Xavier Worthy KC	Receiving Yards	U 38.5(+3.0 from open)	32.8	62%	+9.2%	20Hit
Patrick Mahomes KC	Passing TDs	O 1.5	1.8	59%	+7.0%	2Hit
Chris Bell MIA	Receptions	U 1.5	1.2	59%	+7.0%	4Miss
Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA	Receptions	U 1.5	1.2	58%	+6.0%	1Hit
Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA	Receiving Yards	U 15.5(-1.0 from open)	12.4	58%	+5.8%	3Hit
Malik Willis MIA	Rushing Yards	U 32.5(-1.0 from open)	29.2	58%	+5.7%	56Miss
Travis Kelce KC	Receptions	O 4.5	5	58%	+5.7%	2Miss
Rashee Rice KC	Receptions	U 4.5	4	58%	+5.7%	7Miss
Malik Willis MIA	Carries	U 5.5	5	57%	+5.0%	9Miss
Emmett Johnson KC	Carries	U 6.5(+1.0 from open)	6	57%	+4.4%	6Hit
Emmett Johnson KC	Rushing Yards	U 26.5(+2.0 from open)	24.2	56%	+3.8%	17Hit
Chris Bell MIA	Receiving Yards	U 19.5(-4.0 from open)	17.2	56%	+3.8%	67Miss
Patrick Mahomes KC	Carries	O 3.5	3.8	56%	+3.8%	1Miss
Kenneth Walker III KC	Receptions	O 3.5	3.8	56%	+3.8%	2Miss
Malik Washington MIA	Receiving Yards	O 39.5(+4.0 from open)	42.3	56%	+3.3%	56Hit
Malik Willis MIA	Completions	U 16.5	15.8	56%	+3.3%	20Miss
Emmett Johnson KC	Rush + Rec Yards	O 42.5(+3.0 from open)	45.5	56%	+3.2%	17Miss
Greg Dulcich MIA	Receiving Yards	U 23.5(+1.0 from open)	21.5	55%	+2.9%	55Miss
Patrick Mahomes KC	Passing Yards	O 236.5(+1.0 from open)	252	55%	+2.8%	246Hit
Patrick Mahomes KC	Completions	O 21.5	22.2	55%	+2.6%	20Miss
Malik Willis MIA	Passing Yards	O 176.5	187.2	55%	+2.4%	210Hit
Tyquan Thornton KC	Receptions	O 1.5	1.7	55%	+2.3%	2Hit
Emmett Johnson KC	Receptions	O 1.5	1.7	55%	+2.3%	0Miss
Patrick Mahomes KC	Rushing Yards	O 15.5(-3.0 from open)	17	54%	+1.6%	1Miss
De'Von Achane MIA	Rush + Rec Yards	U 93.5(+3.0 from open)	88.8	54%	+1.6%	17Hit
Greg Dulcich MIA	Receptions	U 2.5	2.3	54%	+1.3%	5Miss
Xavier Worthy KC	Receptions	O 3.5	3.7	53%	+0.7%	2Miss
De'Von Achane MIA	Receiving Yards	U 27.5(+1.0 from open)	26.5	53%	+0.3%	0Hit
De'Von Achane MIA	Rushing Yards	U 60.5(+1.0 from open)	58.7	52%	0.0%	17Hit
Ollie Gordon II MIA	Rushing Yards	U 9.5(+1.0 from open)	9	51%	-1.1%	41Miss
Rashee Rice KC	Receiving Yards	O 49.5	50	51%	-1.6%	88Hit
Malik Willis MIA	Passing TDs	O 0.5	0.5	50%	-2.4%	0Miss
De'Von Achane MIA	Carries	O 15.5	15.5	50%	-2.4%	3Miss
De'Von Achane MIA	Receptions	O 3.5	3.5	50%	-2.4%	0Miss
Malik Washington MIA	Receptions	O 3.5	3.5	50%	-2.4%	5Hit
Ryan Miller MIA	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Travis Kelce KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	1Hit
Patrick Mahomes KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Malik Willis MIA	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Rashee Rice KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Kenneth Walker III KC	Anytime TD	Yes	1	37%	-15.7%	2Hit
Xavier Worthy KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Jalen Royals KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Ben VanSumeren KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Jake Briningstool KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Brashard Smith KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
DJ Herman MIA	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Ollie Gordon II MIA	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	1Hit
Cyrus Allen KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Noah Gray KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Tyquan Thornton KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Greg Dulcich MIA	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Nikko Remigio KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
De'Von Achane MIA	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Malik Washington MIA	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Jaylen Wright MIA	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Emmett Johnson KC	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Caleb Douglas MIA	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Chris Bell MIA	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Will Kacmarek MIA	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Kansas City Chiefs

deep left11/1 · 24 yds

deep middle31/3 · 48 yds

deep right33/3 · 68 yds

short left33/3 · 22 yds

short middle64/6 · 26 yds

short right98/9 · 46 yds

Line of scrimmage

25 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Miami Dolphins

deep left60/6 · 0 yds

deep middle31/3 · 42 yds

deep right20/2 · 0 yds

short left86/8 · 51 yds

short middle97/9 · 76 yds

short right126/12 · 41 yds

Line of scrimmage

40 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 67/117 (57%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00MIA24–10
END GAME
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.0%
Q4 0:42MIA1st & 10 at MIA 4524–10
(Shotgun) M.Willis scrambles right end to KC 47 for 8 yards (N.Bolton).
EPA-2.44
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards8
PredictedPass 89%×incorrect
Q4 0:42MIA1st & 10 at MIA 4524–10
Timeout #2 by KC at 00:42.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 0:47MIA2nd & 10 at MIA 4024–10
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short right intended for G.Dulcich INTERCEPTED by C.Roland-Wallace at MIA 42. C.Roland-Wallace to MIA 42 for no gain (G.Dulcich).PENALTY on KC-G.Karlaftis, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 40 - No Play.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Air zoneshort right
TargetG.Dulcich
Q4 0:52MIA1st & 10 at MIA 4024–10
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete deep right to K.Coleman.
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
Air zonedeep right
TargetK.Coleman (inc)
PredictedPass 89%✓correct
Q4 0:57KC4th & 6 at MIA 3224–10
H.Butker 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 0:57KC4th & 6 at MIA 3224–10
Timeout #1 by KC at 00:57.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 1:42KC3rd & 10 at MIA 3624–10
(Shotgun) E.Johnson left guard to MIA 32 for 4 yards (D.Trader; J.Brooks).
EPA+1.96
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards4
PredictedRun 53%✓correct
Q4 1:42KC3rd & 10 at MIA 3624–10
Timeout #3 by MIA at 01:42.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 1:48KC2nd & 10 at MIA 3624–10
H.Nourzad reported in as eligible. E.Johnson left end to MIA 36 for no gain (J.Brents).
EPA+1.89
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
PredictedRun 80%✓correct
Q4 1:48KC2nd & 10 at MIA 3624–10
Timeout #2 by MIA at 01:48.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 1:54KC1st & 10 at MIA 3624–10
H.Nourzad reported in as eligible. E.Johnson up the middle to MIA 36 for no gain (J.Rodriguez).
EPA+1.88
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
PredictedRun 87%✓correct
Q4 1:54KC1st & 10 at MIA 3624–10
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 2:03MIA4th & 1 at MIA 48Turnover24–10
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short right intended for R.Miller INTERCEPTED by G.Karlaftis (C.Jones) at MIA 36. G.Karlaftis to MIA 36 for no gain (A.Brewer).
EPA-7.29
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetR.Miller (inc)
PredictedPass 72%✓correct
Q4 2:09MIA3rd & 1 at MIA 4824–10
(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete deep left to M.Washington.
EPA-0.85
WPA (home)-0.3%
Home WP0.2%
Yards0
Air zonedeep left
TargetM.Washington (inc)
PredictedPass 67%✓correct
Q4 2:29MIA2nd & 4 at MIA 4524–10
(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Willis pass short right to K.Coleman to MIA 48 for 3 yards (N.Williams).
EPA-0.32
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.5%
Yards3
Air zoneshort right
TargetK.Coleman
PredictedPass 75%✓correct
Q4 2:46MIA1st & 10 at MIA 3924–10
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short middle to G.Dulcich to MIA 45 for 6 yards (N.Bolton; L.Sneed).
EPA+0.05
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.5%
Yards6
Air zoneshort middle
TargetG.Dulcich
PredictedPass 72%✓correct
Q4 2:55KC24–10
H.Butker kicks 65 yards from KC 35 to MIA 0. K.Coleman to MIA 39 for 39 yards (B.VanSumeren; J.Briningstool).
WPA (home)+0.2%
Home WP0.4%
Q4 2:55KC & Goal at MIA 1524–10
Official Timeout at 02:55.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.2%
Q4 2:55KC3rd & 6 at MIA 11Score24–10
(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass short right to T.Kelce for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [J.Uche]. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.
EPA+2.59
WPA (home)-0.7%
Home WP0.2%
Yards11
Air zoneshort right
TargetT.Kelce
PredictedRun 53%×incorrect
Q4 3:46KC2nd & 21 at MIA 2617–10
(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass short middle to R.Rice to MIA 11 for 15 yards (W.Gay; C.Johnson) [J.Uche].
EPA+1.20
WPA (home)-1.6%
Home WP0.9%
Yards15
Air zoneshort middle
TargetR.Rice
PredictedRun 71%×incorrect
Q4 3:52KC2nd & 11 at MIA 1617–10
(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass short right to T.Kelce to MIA 9 for 7 yards (M.Taaffe).PENALTY on KC-C.Humphrey, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 16 - No Play.
WPA (home)+0.9%
Home WP2.6%
Air zoneshort right
TargetT.Kelce
Q4 4:30KC1st & 10 at MIA 1517–10
K.Walker right tackle to MIA 16 for -1 yards (J.Rodriguez).
EPA-0.84
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP1.6%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 81%✓correct
Q4 5:16KC2nd & 12 at MIA 4917–10
P.Mahomes pass deep right to R.Rice to MIA 15 for 34 yards (C.Johnson) [Z.Sieler].
EPA+3.27
WPA (home)-4.4%
Home WP1.5%
Yards34
Air zonedeep right
TargetR.Rice
PredictedPass 51%✓correct
Q4 5:56KC1st & 10 at MIA 4717–10
K.Walker right guard to MIA 49 for -2 yards (J.Phillips).
EPA-0.97
WPA (home)+2.2%
Home WP5.9%
Yards-2
PredictedRun 63%✓correct
Q4 5:56KC1st & 10 at MIA 4817–10
Official Timeout at 05:56.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP3.7%
Q4 6:00MIA4th & 5 at MIA 4817–10
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete short right to K.Coleman (N.Williams).
EPA-7.07
WPA (home)-2.5%
Home WP3.8%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetK.Coleman (inc)
PredictedPass 93%✓correct
Q4 6:05MIA3rd & 5 at MIA 4817–10
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete short middle to G.Dulcich (N.Bolton).
EPA-0.85
WPA (home)-4.0%
Home WP6.2%
Yards0
Air zoneshort middle
TargetG.Dulcich (inc)
PredictedPass 90%✓correct
Q4 6:38MIA2nd & 10 at MIA 4317–10
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short right to M.Washington to MIA 48 for 5 yards (N.Bolton).
EPA-0.06
WPA (home)+0.6%
Home WP10.2%
Yards5
Air zoneshort right
TargetM.Washington
PredictedPass 73%✓correct
Q4 7:17MIA1st & 10 at MIA 4317–10
(Shotgun) O.Gordon left tackle to MIA 43 for no gain (R.Thomas; A.Gillotte).
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)-2.2%
Home WP9.6%
Yards0
PredictedPass 60%×incorrect

Box score

Team stats	KC	MIA
Total yards	334	329
Yards / play	6.8	4.9
Turnovers	1	2
3rd down	3-7	8-16
Red zone	3-5	1-2
Possession	25:39	34:21

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
P.Mahomes	20/24	246	2	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
K.Walker III	18	70	3.9	1
E.Johnson	6	17	2.8	0
P.Mahomes	1	1	1.0	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
R.Rice	7/9	88	0
T.Kelce	2/2	59	1
N.Gray	3/3	39	0
T.Thornton	2/2	22	0
X.Worthy	2/2	20	0

Defense	TKL	INT
N.Bolton	11	0
M.Delane	10	0
G.Karlaftis	2	1
D.Tranquill	7	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
M.Willis	20/36	210	0	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
M.Willis	9	56	6.2	0
O.Gordon II	17	41	2.4	1
D.Achane	3	17	5.7	0
M.Washington	2	5	2.5	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS
C.Bell	4/7	67
M.Washington	5/10	56
G.Dulcich	5/7	55
R.Miller	2/3	15
O.Gordon II	3/3	14

Defense	TKL	INT
J.Rodriguez	6	1
J.Brooks	10	0
D.Trader Jr.	9	0
C.Johnson	8	0

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Miami Dolphins