Dolphins
0-2
13
49ers
2-0
35
Final
Pregame model pick
SF 84.1%
Correct · ATS win
- Model spread
- SF -13.5
- Model total
- 45.1
- ATS pick
- SF -10.5
- +3.0 pt edge
- Total pick
- Pass
- -1.4 pt edge
Model breakdown
Why the model likes SF
The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.
- Market priorhelps SF+7.9 pts · +18.0%
Opening line SF -10.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 1 game
- Passing offensehelps SF+1.9 pts · +3.7%
SF +0.30 vs MIA -1.03 EPA/dropback (vs. league avg)
- Pass defensehelps SF+1.2 pts · +2.2%
SF -1.00 vs MIA +0.01 EPA/dropback allowed (vs. league avg)
- Point differentialhelps SF+1.1 pts · +2.0%
SF +20.0 vs MIA -14.0 per game
- Run defensehelps SF+1.0 pts · +2.0%
SF -0.31 vs MIA +0.52 EPA/rush allowed (vs. league avg)
- Home fieldhelps SF+0.4 pts · +0.8%
SF at home (1.7 pts)
Early-season sample (1 game), so the stats are shrunk toward average and the market carries more weight.
Model vs. market
SF win probability
- GameLens
- 84%
- Market
- 86%
- Difference
- -2%
Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.
Matchup Lens
The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.
- Edge: SFMajor
SF secondary vs MIA passing attack
- MIA EPA per dropback
- -1.00 (31st)
- SF EPA per dropback allowed
- -0.97 (3rd)
- Edge: SFMajor
SF pass protection vs MIA pass rush
- SF sack rate allowed
- 0.0% (1st)
- MIA sack rate generated
- 0.0% (28th)
- Edge: SFMajor
SF red-zone defense vs MIA red-zone offense
- MIA red-zone TD rate
- 33% (21st)
- SF red-zone TD rate allowed
- 33% (2nd)
- Edge: SFClear
SF run game vs MIA run defense
- SF EPA per rush
- +0.41 (6th)
- MIA EPA per rush allowed
- +0.55 (27th)
Live win probability
Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.
Win probability
100.0% SF win probability
Key moments
Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.
Key moments
- defenseQ2 11:09
(Shotgun) M.Willis sacked at SF 10 for -4 yards (sack split by F.Warner and U.Stout).
WPA +1.5%EPA -1.21 - big playQ3 15:00
(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass deep middle to G.Kittle to MIA 25 for 40 yards (Z.Anderson) [J.Uche].
WPA +1.2%EPA +2.88 - big playQ1 2:56
C.Wallace reported in as eligible. D.Achane up the middle to SF 40 for 17 yards (M.Sigle).
WPA -1.0%EPA +1.72 - big playQ2 7:48
B.Purdy scrambles left end ran ob at MIA 32 for 18 yards (J.Marshall).PENALTY on MIA-J.Brents, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 32.
WPA +1.0%EPA +1.66 - touchdownQ3 13:08
B.Purdy pass short left to G.Kittle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman. ** Injury Update: MIA-R.Beal has returned to the game.
WPA +0.9%EPA +1.46 - defenseQ2 10:32
(Shotgun) M.Willis sacked ob at SF 10 for 0 yards (R.Height).
WPA +0.7%EPA -1.27
Highlights
Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.
Highlights
Highlight clips post during and after the game.
Player props
Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.
Player props
Passing target maps
Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.
Target maps
25 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
22 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
Play-by-play
EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.
Play-by-play
Play-call model: 63/111 (57%) run/pass correct
- Q4 0:00SF13–35
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP100.0% - Q4 0:39SF2nd & 11 at SF 3713–35
M.Jones kneels to SF 36 for -1 yards.
EPA-1.09WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-1PredictedRun 88%✓correct - Q4 1:18SF1st & 10 at SF 3813–35
M.Jones kneels to SF 37 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.84WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-1PredictedRun 93%✓correct - Q4 2:00SF2nd & 2 at SF 3513–35
(Shotgun) J.James up the middle to SF 38 for 3 yards (J.Woodard; J.Wood).
EPA+0.49WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards3PredictedRun 95%✓correct - Q4 2:00SF2nd & 2 at SF 3513–35
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 2:25SF1st & 10 at SF 2713–35
J.James up the middle to SF 35 for 8 yards (L.Anderson).
EPA+4.98WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards8PredictedRun 92%✓correct - Q4 2:30MIA13–35
R.Patterson kicks 63 yards from MIA 35 to SF 2. J.Cowing to SF 27 for 25 yards (J.Woodard).
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 2:30MIA3rd & 4 at MIA 23Score13–35
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass deep right to R.Miller for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN. R.Patterson extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.
EPA+7.23WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards77Air zonedeep rightTargetR.MillerPredictedPass 93%✓correct - Q4 3:24MIA2nd & 9 at MIA 186–35
O.Gordon left guard to MIA 23 for 5 yards (C.West; J.Brown).
EPA-0.06WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards5PredictedPass 93%×incorrect - Q4 4:03MIA1st & 10 at MIA 176–35
O.Gordon right tackle to MIA 18 for 1 yard (J.Dugger; K.Kareem).
EPA-0.59WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards1PredictedPass 89%×incorrect - Q4 4:17SF4th & 10 at SF 366–35
C.Waitman punts 47 yards to MIA 17, Center-J.Weeks, downed by SF-B.Willis.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 5:00SF3rd & 16 at SF 306–35
(Shotgun) K.Black up the middle to SF 36 for 6 yards (J.Rodriguez; J.Marshall).
EPA-0.04WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards6PredictedRun 55%✓correct - Q4 5:29SF3rd & 6 at SF 406–35
(Shotgun) M.Jones scrambles left end pushed ob at SF 47 for 7 yards (Z.Biggers).PENALTY on SF-V.Lowe, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 40 - No Play.
EPA-1.27WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-10PredictedRun 54%✓correct - Q4 6:12SF2nd & 8 at SF 386–35
J.James left tackle to SF 40 for 2 yards (W.Gay; J.Marshall).
EPA-0.45WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards2PredictedRun 80%✓correct - Q4 6:56SF1st & 10 at SF 366–35
J.James right guard to SF 38 for 2 yards (M.Herring; Z.Biggers).
EPA-0.46WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards2PredictedRun 88%✓correct - Q4 6:56SF1st & 10 at SF 356–35
Official Timeout at 06:56.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 7:06MIA4th & 20 at MIA 226–35
B.Pinion punts 43 yards to SF 35, Center-T.Addington. J.Cowing to SF 36 for 1 yard (R.Taylor).
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 7:38MIA3rd & 14 at MIA 286–35
(Shotgun) M.Willis sacked at MIA 22 for -6 yards (K.White).
EPA-5.98WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%PredictedPass 97%✓correct - Q4 7:38MIA3rd & 14 at MIA 286–35
Timeout #1 by MIA at 07:38.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 7:43MIA2nd & 14 at MIA 286–35
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete short right to C.Bell (J.Jones).
EPA+4.48WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards0Air zoneshort rightTargetC.Bell (inc)PredictedPass 93%✓correct - Q4 7:53MIA2nd & 14 at MIA 286–35
Official Timeout at 07:53.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 8:03MIA1st & 20 at MIA 226–35
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short left to G.Dulcich to MIA 28 for 6 yards (K.Kareem). MIA-C.Douglas was injured during the play.
EPA+4.96WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards6Air zoneshort leftTargetG.DulcichPredictedPass 92%✓correct - Q4 8:12MIA1st & 10 at MIA 326–35
M.Willis pass incomplete short right to G.Dulcich (J.Jones).PENALTY on MIA-A.Brewer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 32 - No Play.
EPA-0.99WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-10Air zoneshort rightTargetG.Dulcich (inc)PredictedPass 87%✓correct - Q4 8:53MIA3rd & 7 at MIA 216–35
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short right to C.Douglas to MIA 32 for 11 yards (J.Brown).
EPA+2.04WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards11Air zoneshort rightTargetC.DouglasPredictedPass 97%✓correct - Q4 9:38MIA2nd & 4 at MIA 246–35
D.Achane right tackle to MIA 21 for -3 yards (G.Halton).
EPA-1.08WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-3PredictedPass 89%×incorrect - Q4 10:18MIA1st & 10 at MIA 186–35
D.Achane up the middle to MIA 24 for 6 yards (J.Brown; G.Halton).
EPA+0.05WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards6PredictedPass 87%×incorrect - Q4 10:18MIA1st & 10 at MIA 186–35
Official Timeout at 10:18.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 10:31SF4th & 23 at SF 436–35
C.Waitman punts 46 yards to MIA 11, Center-J.Weeks. M.Washington pushed ob at MIA 18 for 7 yards (B.Willis).
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 10:38SF4th & 23 at SF 436–35
C.Waitman punts 46 yards to MIA 11, Center-J.Weeks, fair catch by M.Washington.Penalty on SF-J.Weeks, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at SF 43 - No Play.Penalty on MIA-O.Gordon, Running Into the Kicker, offsetting.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 10:45SF3rd & 5 at MIA 396–35
(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass incomplete short right.PENALTY on SF-B.Purdy, Intentional Grounding, 18 yards, enforced at MIA 39.
EPA-8.85WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-36PredictedRun 51%×incorrect
Box score
Box score
| Team stats | MIA | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 284 | 382 |
| Yards / play | 5.1 | 7.8 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| 3rd down | 7-15 | 5-7 |
| Red zone | 0-2 | 5-5 |
| Possession | 30:13 | 29:47 |
Miami Dolphins
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 M.Willis | 14/23 | 197 | 1 | 0 |
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 D.Achane | 20 | 74 | 3.7 | 0 |
 J.Wright | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
 O.Gordon II | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| M.Willis | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
 M.Washington | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 R.Miller | 1/1 | 77 | 1 |
| M.Washington | 4/5 | 43 | 0 |
| D.Achane | 3/6 | 19 | 0 |
 C.Douglas | 2/3 | 19 | 0 |
 D.Herman | 1/3 | 18 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 M.Taaffe | 9 | 0 | 0 |
 J.Rodriguez | 8 | 0 | 0 |
 J.Marshall Jr. | 6 | 0 | 0 |
 J.Uche | 5 | 0 | 0 |
San Francisco 49ers
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 B.Purdy | 20/22 | 287 | 2 | 0 |
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 1 |
 K.Black | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
 C.McCaffrey | 10 | 23 | 2.3 | 2 |
 J.James | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
 D.Samuel Sr. | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 G.Kittle | 4/4 | 80 | 1 |
 M.Evans | 3/3 | 54 | 0 |
| C.McCaffrey | 4/4 | 43 | 0 |
 D.Robinson | 3/3 | 34 | 0 |
| D.Samuel Sr. | 3/4 | 31 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 J.Brown | 13 | 0 | 0 |
 M.Sigle | 7 | 1 | 0 |
 D.Greenlaw | 8 | 0 | 0 |
 U.Stout | 5 | 0.5 | 0 |
