PIT @ NE

Steelers

1-1

Patriots

1-1

Final

Final · Game report

New England Patriots rout PIT, 20-3

New England Patriots controlled this one from start to finish and won by 17.

Play for play, NE had the more efficient offense: -0.10 EPA per play for NE versus -0.80 for PIT.

GameLens had NE at 54% before kickoff, and the pick came in.

Play of the game · Q1 8:22 · 8% win-prob swing

(Shotgun) T.Henderson left guard for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.

How it was won

NE won on the ground, averaging 0.57 EPA per run compared with -1.08 per dropback.

Team stat comparison
PIT	Stat	NE
-0.80	EPA / play	-0.10
32%	Success rate	49%
235	Total yards	327
3.5	Yards / play	6.2
2	Turnovers	2
2-12	3rd down	4-12
0-1	Red zone	0-1
32:47	Possession	27:13

Standouts

Pregame model pick

NE 53.8%

Correct · ATS loss

Low

Model spread: NE -1.5
Model total: 41.8
ATS pick: PIT +4.5; -3.2 pt edge
Total pick: U 43.5; -1.7 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

PIT spread+4.5

PIT ML+180

Over41.5

NE spread-4.5

NE ML-218

Under41.5

Why the model likes NE

The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.

Market priorhelps NE+3.4 pts · +9.9%
Opening line NE -4.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 1 game
Pass defensehurts NE-1.6 pts · -4.7%
NE +0.25 vs PIT -1.21 EPA/dropback allowed (vs. league avg)
Home fieldhelps NE+0.4 pts · +1.3%
NE at home (1.7 pts)
Run defensehurts NE-0.4 pts · -1.1%
NE +0.21 vs PIT -0.11 EPA/rush allowed (vs. league avg)
Rushing offensehurts NE-0.3 pts · -1.0%
NE +0.12 vs PIT +0.61 EPA/rush (vs. league avg)
Point differentialhurts NE-0.3 pts · -0.9%
NE -3.0 vs PIT +7.0 per game
Passing offensehelps NE+0.1 pts · +0.4%
NE -0.03 vs PIT -0.10 EPA/dropback (vs. league avg)

Early-season sample (1 game), so the stats are shrunk toward average and the market carries more weight.

Model vs. market

NE win probability

GameLens: 54%
Market: 66%
Difference: -12%

Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.

Matchup Lens

The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.

Edge: NEClear
NE third-down defense vs PIT third-down offense
PIT third-down conversion rate
23% (21st)
NE third-down rate allowed
18% (4th)
Edge: PITClear
PIT third-down defense vs NE third-down offense
NE third-down conversion rate
31% (18th)
PIT third-down rate allowed
17% (1st)
Edge: PITClear
PIT pass rush vs NE offensive line
NE sack rate allowed
8.3% (22nd)
PIT sack rate generated
15.4% (4th)
Edge: PITClear
PIT run game vs NE run defense
PIT EPA per rush
+0.64 (1st)
NE EPA per rush allowed
+0.24 (18th)
Edge: PITClear
PIT secondary vs NE passing attack
NE EPA per dropback
-0.00 (15th)
PIT EPA per dropback allowed
-1.18 (1st)

Momentum tracker

0–100 score for who controls the game right now, weighted toward the most recent plays by EPA.

Final momentum

36/100NE · Edge

Last 60 plays

PITNE

Recent swing plays

+40Q4 2:01R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 22 for 2 yards (D.Harmon; K.Benton).
-22Q4 0:36D.Maye kneels to NE 34 for -1 yards.
-18Q4 1:04 D.Maye kneels to NE 35 for -2 yards.

Positive values push momentum toward NE.

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% NE win probability

NE abovePIT below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

defenseQ1 11:32
D.Maye pass short left to R.Stevenson to PIT 31 for 3 yards (N.Herbig). FUMBLES (N.Herbig), RECOVERED by PIT-P.Wilson at PIT 31.PENALTY on PIT-J.Ramsey, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 31.
WPA -7.6%EPA -10.00
touchdownQ1 8:22
(Shotgun) T.Henderson left guard for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.
WPA +7.6%EPA +3.41
big playQ3 2:12
(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to R.Doubs pushed ob at PIT 29 for 63 yards (R.Jenkins).
WPA +7.6%EPA +4.54
defenseQ4 13:37
(Shotgun) A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 21 for -9 yards (C.Barmore). FUMBLES (C.Barmore) [C.Barmore], RECOVERED by NE-E.Ponder at PIT 19. E.Ponder for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.
WPA +6.5%EPA -7.04
defenseQ2 8:05
(Shotgun) A.Rodgers sacked at NE 31 for -9 yards (C.Elliss). FUMBLES (C.Elliss) [C.Elliss], touched at NE 30, recovered by PIT-T.Fautanu at PIT 42.
WPA +6.0%EPA -9.97
defenseQ3 12:59
D.Maye pass deep left intended for H.Henry INTERCEPTED by P.Queen at PIT 10. P.Queen to PIT 13 for 3 yards (H.Henry).
WPA -5.6%EPA -10.00

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Highlight clips post during and after the game.

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
Romeo Doubs NE	Receiving Yards	U 39.5(+1.0 from open)	31.6	66%	+13.1%	96Miss
Rhamondre Stevenson NE	Receiving Yards	O 18.5(-2.0 from open)	23.6	63%	+10.9%	3Miss
Romeo Doubs NE	Receptions	U 3.5	2.8	63%	+10.4%	3Hit
Rhamondre Stevenson NE	Receptions	O 2.5	3	61%	+8.4%	1Miss
Michael Pittman Jr. PIT	Receiving Yards	O 35.5(+2.0 from open)	40	60%	+7.6%	0Miss
Drake Maye NE	Rushing Yards	O 28.5(+3.0 from open)	32.2	60%	+7.3%	17Miss
Rico Dowdle PIT	Rush + Rec Yards	U 52.5(-3.0 from open)	46.2	59%	+7.1%	44Hit
Rico Dowdle PIT	Rushing Yards	U 33.5(-7.0 from open)	29.8	59%	+6.3%	22Hit
Rhamondre Stevenson NE	Carries	O 13.5	14.4	58%	+6.0%	6Miss
Pat Freiermuth PIT	Receiving Yards	O 31.5(+5.0 from open)	34.4	57%	+4.9%	32Hit
DeMario Douglas NE	Receiving Yards	U 36.5(+1.0 from open)	33.2	57%	+4.8%	9Hit
Mack Hollins NE	Receiving Yards	O 36.5	39.4	56%	+3.9%	18Miss
Pat Freiermuth PIT	Receptions	O 3.5(+1.0 from open)	3.8	56%	+3.1%	4Hit
DeMario Douglas NE	Receptions	O 3.5	3.8	56%	+3.1%	1Miss
Jaylen Warren PIT	Receptions	O 3.5(+1.0 from open)	3.8	56%	+3.1%	2Miss
Aaron Rodgers PIT	Completions	O 20.5	21.2	55%	+2.9%	23Hit
Rhamondre Stevenson NE	Rush + Rec Yards	O 71.5(-2.0 from open)	76.2	55%	+2.8%	46Miss
DK Metcalf PIT	Receiving Yards	U 59.5(+8.0 from open)	55.6	55%	+2.8%	27Hit
Hunter Henry NE	Receiving Yards	U 38.5(+1.0 from open)	36	55%	+2.8%	40Miss
Rico Dowdle PIT	Receiving Yards	U 15.5(+3.0 from open)	13.6	55%	+2.6%	22Miss
Jaylen Warren PIT	Receiving Yards	O 18.5(-2.0 from open)	20.2	55%	+2.1%	34Hit
Drake Maye NE	Carries	O 5.5	5.8	54%	+2.0%	4Miss
Drake Maye NE	Completions	O 20.5	21	54%	+1.4%	14Miss
Drake Maye NE	Passing Yards	U 223.5(-2.0 from open)	214.4	53%	+0.8%	208Hit
Roman Wilson PIT	Receiving Yards	U 32.5(+15.0 from open)	31.2	53%	+0.8%	28Hit
Aaron Rodgers PIT	Passing TDs	U 1.5(+1.0 from open)	1.4	53%	+0.4%	0Hit
Drake Maye NE	Passing TDs	U 1.5	1.4	53%	+0.4%	0Hit
Darnell Washington PIT	Receptions	O 1.5	1.6	53%	+0.4%	1Miss
Rico Dowdle PIT	Receptions	U 2.5	2.4	52%	-0.2%	2Hit
Roman Wilson PIT	Receptions	O 2.5(+1.0 from open)	2.6	52%	-0.2%	5Hit
Jaylen Warren PIT	Rush + Rec Yards	O 64.5(-2.0 from open)	66.2	52%	-0.3%	77Hit
Aaron Rodgers PIT	Rushing Yards	U 0.5	-0.2	52%	-0.5%	5Miss
Darnell Washington PIT	Receiving Yards	O 14.5(-3.0 from open)	15.2	52%	-0.5%	7Miss
Mack Hollins NE	Receptions	O 3.5	3.6	52%	-0.5%	2Miss
Hunter Henry NE	Receptions	U 3.5	3.4	52%	-0.5%	3Hit
Michael Pittman Jr. PIT	Receptions	U 3.5	3.4	52%	-0.5%	0Hit
Jaylen Warren PIT	Rushing Yards	O 41.5	42.4	52%	-0.7%	43Hit
DK Metcalf PIT	Receptions	U 4.5(+1.0 from open)	4.4	52%	-0.8%	4Hit
Rico Dowdle PIT	Carries	U 8.5	8.4	51%	-1.2%	7Hit
Jaylen Warren PIT	Carries	U 10.5	10.4	51%	-1.3%	11Miss
Aaron Rodgers PIT	Passing Yards	O 208.5(+1.0 from open)	211	51%	-1.4%	187Miss
Rhamondre Stevenson NE	Rushing Yards	O 49.5(+1.0 from open)	49.8	50%	-1.9%	43Miss
Pat Freiermuth PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Eli Raridon NE	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Aaron Rodgers PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Mack Hollins NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Hunter Henry NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Michael Pittman Jr. PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Rico Dowdle PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
DK Metcalf PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Romeo Doubs NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
DeMario Douglas NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Darnell Washington PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Corey Kiner NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Drake Maye NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Roman Wilson PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Rhamondre Stevenson NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Jaylen Warren PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Kyle Williams NE	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Riley Nowakowski PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Kaden Wetjen PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Eli Heidenreich PIT	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Pittsburgh Steelers

deep left20/2 · 0 yds

deep middle20/2 · 0 yds

deep right10/1 · 0 yds

short left138/13 · 34 yds

short middle77/7 · 88 yds

short right158/15 · 65 yds

Line of scrimmage

40 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

New England Patriots

deep left32/3 · 59 yds

deep middle0—

deep right22/2 · 92 yds

short left116/11 · 12 yds

short middle32/3 · 19 yds

short right32/3 · 8 yds

Line of scrimmage

22 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 79/123 (64%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00NE3–20
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP100.0%
Q4 0:36NE2nd & 12 at NE 353–20
D.Maye kneels to NE 34 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.90
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 83%✓correct
Q4 1:04NE1st & 10 at NE 373–20
D.Maye kneels to NE 35 for -2 yards.
EPA-0.97
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-2
PredictedRun 90%✓correct
Q4 1:13NE3rd & 10 at NE 203–20
C.Kiner left tackle to NE 22 for 2 yards (J.Brisker; N.Herbig).PENALTY on PIT-P.Wilson, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at NE 22.
EPA+2.64
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards2
PredictedRun 58%✓correct
Q4 1:57NE2nd & 8 at NE 223–20
C.Kiner right guard to NE 20 for -2 yards (P.Wilson).
EPA-0.95
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-2
PredictedRun 83%✓correct
Q4 1:57NE2nd & 8 at NE 223–20
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 2:01NE1st & 10 at NE 203–20
R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 22 for 2 yards (D.Harmon; K.Benton).
EPA+5.16
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards2
PredictedRun 90%✓correct
Q4 2:09PIT4th & 2 at PIT 293–20
C.Johnston punts 51 yards to NE 20, Center-C.Kuntz, fair catch by M.Jones.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 2:53PIT3rd & 5 at PIT 263–20
(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Rudolph scrambles right tackle to PIT 29 for 3 yards (Q.Hutchins; J.Farmer).
EPA-0.57
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards3
PredictedPass 96%×incorrect
Q4 3:19PIT2nd & 10 at PIT 213–20
(Shotgun) J.Warren up the middle to PIT 26 for 5 yards (C.Elliss).
EPA-0.06
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards5
PredictedPass 87%×incorrect
Q4 3:23PIT1st & 10 at PIT 213–20
(Shotgun) M.Rudolph pass incomplete short right to D.Metcalf (C.Gonzalez).
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetD.Metcalf (inc)
PredictedPass 79%✓correct
Q4 3:33NE4th & 5 at NE 373–20
M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to PIT 17, Center-J.Ashby. K.Wetjen to PIT 21 for 4 yards (K.Prunty).
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 3:33NE4th & 5 at NE 373–20
Timeout #1 by PIT at 03:33.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 3:39NE3rd & 10 at NE 323–20
T.Henderson right tackle to NE 37 for 5 yards (J.Ramsey).
EPA+4.32
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards5
PredictedRun 58%✓correct
Q4 4:24NE2nd & 11 at NE 313–20
R.Stevenson left guard to NE 32 for 1 yard (J.Brisker; D.Harmon).
EPA-0.57
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards1
PredictedRun 82%✓correct
Q4 5:09NE1st & 10 at NE 323–20
T.Henderson up the middle to NE 31 for -1 yards (N.Herbig, T.Watt).
EPA-0.84
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 77%✓correct
Q4 5:16PIT2nd & Goal at NE 17Turnover3–20
(Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short right intended for G.Bernard INTERCEPTED by G.Jacas (C.Woods) at NE 21. G.Jacas to NE 32 for 11 yards (A.Rodgers).
EPA-5.58
WPA (home)+0.5%
Home WP99.9%
Yards11
Air zoneshort right
TargetG.Bernard (inc)
PredictedPass 87%✓correct
Q4 5:46PIT1st & Goal at NE 43–20
(Shotgun) A.Rodgers sacked at NE 17 for -13 yards (E.Ponder).Penalty on PIT-T.Fautanu, Offensive Holding, declined.
EPA-2.20
WPA (home)+1.0%
Home WP99.4%
PredictedPass 79%✓correct
Q4 5:46PIT1st & 4 at NE 43–20
Timeout #1 by NE at 05:46.
WPA (home)+0.4%
Home WP98.4%
Q4 6:24PIT1st & 10 at NE 303–20
(Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short middle to J.Warren to NE 4 for 26 yards (C.Woods).
EPA+2.33
WPA (home)-1.0%
Home WP98.0%
Yards26
Air zoneshort middle
TargetJ.Warren
PredictedPass 78%✓correct
Q4 7:01PIT2nd & 5 at NE 393–20
(No Huddle, Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short right to R.Wilson ran ob at NE 30 for 9 yards (M.Jones).
EPA+1.09
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP98.9%
Yards9
Air zoneshort right
TargetR.Wilson
PredictedPass 81%✓correct
Q4 7:31PIT1st & 10 at NE 443–20
(No Huddle, Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short left to R.Wilson to NE 39 for 5 yards (C.Woods).
EPA-0.08
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP99.0%
Yards5
Air zoneshort left
TargetR.Wilson
PredictedPass 78%✓correct
Q4 8:03PIT2nd & 10 at PIT 403–20
(Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short middle to D.Metcalf to NE 44 for 16 yards (K.Byard).
EPA+1.87
WPA (home)-0.5%
Home WP98.9%
Yards16
Air zoneshort middle
TargetD.Metcalf
PredictedPass 86%✓correct
Q4 8:06PIT1st & 10 at PIT 403–20
(No Huddle, Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to G.Bernard.
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)+0.3%
Home WP99.4%
Yards0
Air zoneshort left
TargetG.Bernard (inc)
PredictedPass 78%✓correct
Q4 8:38PIT2nd & 2 at PIT 353–20
(No Huddle, Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short left to R.Wilson to PIT 40 for 5 yards (R.Spillane).
EPA+0.64
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP99.1%
Yards5
Air zoneshort left
TargetR.Wilson
PredictedPass 70%✓correct
Q4 9:03PIT1st & 10 at PIT 273–20
(No Huddle, Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short right to J.Warren to PIT 35 for 8 yards (C.Elliss).
EPA+0.30
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP98.9%
Yards8
Air zoneshort right
TargetJ.Warren
PredictedPass 78%✓correct
Q4 9:31PIT2nd & 1 at PIT 173–20
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Warren right end to PIT 27 for 10 yards (R.Spillane; K.Byard).
EPA+0.94
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP99.0%
Yards10
PredictedPass 70%×incorrect
Q4 9:53PIT1st & 10 at PIT 83–20
(Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short right to D.Metcalf to PIT 17 for 9 yards (C.Gonzalez).
EPA+0.43
WPA (home)-0.3%
Home WP99.0%
Yards9
Air zoneshort right
TargetD.Metcalf
PredictedPass 78%✓correct
Q4 10:00NE4th & 9 at PIT 483–20
M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to PIT 8, Center-J.Ashby, fair catch by K.Wetjen.
WPA (home)+0.2%
Home WP99.3%
Q4 10:04NE3rd & 9 at PIT 483–20
(Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short right to R.Doubs.
EPA-1.36
WPA (home)-0.2%
Home WP99.1%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetR.Doubs (inc)
PredictedPass 67%✓correct

Box score

Team stats	PIT	NE
Total yards	235	327
Yards / play	3.5	6.2
Turnovers	2	2
3rd down	2-12	4-12
Red zone	0-1	0-1
Possession	32:47	27:13

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
A.Rodgers	23/39	187	0	1
M.Rudolph	0/1	0	0	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
J.Warren	11	43	3.9
R.Dowdle	7	22	3.1
T.Homer	2	16	8.0
A.Rodgers	1	5	5.0
M.Rudolph	1	3	3.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS
G.Bernard	4/8	35
J.Warren	2/4	34
P.Freiermuth	4/5	32
R.Wilson	5/6	28
D.Metcalf	4/9	27

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
T.Watt	4	1.5	0
D.Harmon	8	0.5	0
A.Highsmith	3	1	0
P.Queen	2	0	1

New England Patriots

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
D.Maye	14/22	208	0	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
T.Henderson	16	76	4.8	1
R.Stevenson	6	43	7.2	0
D.Maye	4	17	4.3	0
C.Kiner	2	0	0.0	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS
R.Doubs	3/4	96
H.Henry	3/5	40
E.Raridon	1/1	30
M.Hollins	2/2	18
K.Williams	1/2	10

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
C.Elliss	12	1	0
E.Ponder	5	1	0
C.Woods	10	0	0
G.Jacas	3	0	1