LV @ NO

Raiders

3-0

Saints

1-2

Final

Pregame model pick

NO 54.1%

Missed · ATS win

Low

Model spread: NO -1.5
Model total: 43.5
ATS pick: LV +3; -1.6 pt edge
Total pick: Pass; +1.0 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

LV spread+3.5

LV ML+164

Over44.5

NO spread-3.5

NO ML-198

Under44.5

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% LV win probability

NO aboveLV below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

clutchQ4 8:03
(Shotgun) T.Shough pass short left intended for B.Lance INTERCEPTED by H.Masses [M.Koonce] at NO 43. H.Masses to NO 8 for 35 yards (J.Johnson). FUMBLES (J.Johnson), touched at NO 7, recovered by LV-A.Butler at NO 4.
WPA -24.8%EPA -6.51
clutchQ4 3:01
(No Huddle, Shotgun) A.Kamara up the middle to LV 20 for no gain (M.Koonce).
WPA -14.6%EPA +0.59
clutchQ4 13:04
(Shotgun) T.Shough sacked at LV 39 for -10 yards (M.Koonce). FUMBLES (M.Koonce) [M.Koonce], touched at LV 39, RECOVERED by LV-M.Crosby at LV 45.
WPA -14.4%EPA -5.67
clutchQ4 2:21
(Shotgun) T.Shough sacked at LV 30 for -10 yards (J.Chinn). FUMBLES (J.Chinn) [J.Chinn], RECOVERED by LV-T.Johnson at LV 32. Fumble Forced by 98-M.Crosby.
WPA -13.0%EPA -4.69
clutchQ4 6:22
(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short left to B.Bowers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.
WPA -12.1%EPA +1.97
clutchQ4 9:21
K.Cousins pass short left to C.White for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. K.Cousins is sacked. ATTEMPT FAILS.
WPA -10.9%EPA +1.27

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Touchdowns
Michael Mayer's TD puts Raiders ahead
Touchdowns
Tyler Shough throws 4th TD pass to Noah Fant
Touchdowns
Juwan Johnson's 2nd TD puts Saints ahead
Touchdowns
Mike Washington Jr. TD stands after review
Clutch
Cody White's TD puts Raiders ahead late
Touchdowns
Brock Bowers' TD extends the Raiders' lead
Big plays
Raiders move to 3-0 after road win over the Saints

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player	Market	Pick	Proj	Hit %	Edge	Live tracking
Travis Etienne Jr. NO	Receptions	O 1.5	2.5	76%	+23.7%	2Hit
Tre Tucker LV	Receiving Yards	O 40.5	51.3	70%	+18.0%	43Hit
Chris Olave NO	Receiving Yards	O 79.5	97.7	68%	+15.2%	107Hit
Tyler Shough NO	Completions	O 23.5	26	67%	+14.9%	29Hit
Juwan Johnson NO	Receiving Yards	O 36.5(+2.0 from open)	44.3	67%	+14.2%	53Hit
Michael Mayer LV	Receptions	O 2.5	3.2	64%	+11.9%	3Hit
Kirk Cousins LV	Passing TDs	O 1.5	2	64%	+11.5%	3Hit
Noah Fant NO	Receptions	O 1.5	2	64%	+11.5%	4Hit
Ashton Jeanty LV	Carries	O 17.5(-1.0 from open)	19	62%	+9.8%	19Hit
Chris Olave NO	Receptions	O 6.5	7.3	61%	+8.8%	9Hit
Alvin Kamara NO	Receptions	O 2.5(-1.0 from open)	3	61%	+8.4%	1Miss
Noah Fant NO	Receiving Yards	O 12.5	16.6	61%	+8.4%	33Hit
Jack Bech LV	Receptions	O 1.5	1.8	59%	+7.0%	0Miss
Ashton Jeanty LV	Receptions	O 3.5	4	59%	+6.8%	3Miss
Travis Etienne Jr. NO	Receiving Yards	O 9.5(+1.0 from open)	12.7	58%	+6.0%	13Hit
Devaughn Vele NO	Receptions	O 4.5	5	58%	+5.7%	3Miss
Devaughn Vele NO	Receiving Yards	O 51.5(+3.0 from open)	56.5	58%	+5.3%	39Miss
Tyler Shough NO	Passing Yards	O 257.5(+5.0 from open)	282	58%	+5.1%	255Miss
Mike Washington Jr. LV	Rushing Yards	O 15.5	18.3	57%	+5.1%	54Hit
Jack Bech LV	Receiving Yards	O 15.5(+1.0 from open)	18.3	57%	+5.1%	0Miss
Bryce Lance NO	Receiving Yards	O 16.5	19.3	57%	+5.1%	0Miss
Alvin Kamara NO	Rush + Rec Yards	U 41.5(-4.0 from open)	37.6	57%	+5.1%	41Hit
Travis Etienne Jr. NO	Carries	U 10.5	9.8	57%	+4.7%	13Miss
Jalen Nailor LV	Receiving Yards	U 25.5(+1.0 from open)	23	57%	+4.2%	16Hit
Ashton Jeanty LV	Receiving Yards	O 22.5(+1.0 from open)	25	57%	+4.2%	37Hit
Alvin Kamara NO	Rushing Yards	U 25.5(-2.0 from open)	23.4	56%	+3.2%	36Miss
Michael Mayer LV	Receiving Yards	O 21.5(+1.0 from open)	23.5	55%	+2.9%	32Hit
Tyler Shough NO	Passing TDs	O 1.5	1.7	55%	+2.3%	4Hit
Bryce Lance NO	Receptions	O 1.5	1.7	55%	+2.3%	0Miss
Travis Etienne Jr. NO	Rushing Yards	U 41.5(+3.0 from open)	39.5	54%	+1.4%	57Miss
Kirk Cousins LV	Completions	U 21.5(+1.0 from open)	21	54%	+1.3%	22Miss
Jalen Nailor LV	Receptions	U 2.5	2.3	54%	+1.3%	1Hit
Alvin Kamara NO	Receiving Yards	U 12.5(-2.0 from open)	11.4	53%	+0.5%	5Hit
Kirk Cousins LV	Rushing Yards	U 0.5(-1.0 from open)	-0.5	53%	+0.3%	3Miss
Ashton Jeanty LV	Rush + Rec Yards	O 96.5(+2.0 from open)	99.3	52%	-0.1%	93Miss
Ashton Jeanty LV	Rushing Yards	O 69.5(+1.0 from open)	71.3	52%	-0.3%	56Miss
Kirk Cousins LV	Passing Yards	U 216.5(+1.0 from open)	213.2	51%	-1.2%	248Miss
Travis Etienne Jr. NO	Rush + Rec Yards	U 55.5(+5.0 from open)	55.2	50%	-1.9%	70Miss
Tyler Shough NO	Rushing Yards	O 15.5(-1.0 from open)	15.5	50%	-2.4%	36Hit
Juwan Johnson NO	Receptions	O 3.5	3.5	50%	-2.4%	8Hit
Tre Tucker LV	Receptions	O 3.5	3.5	50%	-2.4%	4Hit
Noah Fant NO	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	2Hit
Kendre Miller NO	Anytime TD	Yes	1	44%	-8.4%	0Miss
Juwan Johnson NO	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	2Hit
Cody White LV	Anytime TD	Yes	1	37%	-15.7%	1Hit
Tyler Shough NO	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Chris Olave NO	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Tre Tucker LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Devaughn Vele NO	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Jack Bech LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0.5	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Ashton Jeanty LV	Anytime TD	Yes	1	37%	-15.7%	0Miss
Alvin Kamara NO	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Ian Thomas LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Kevin Austin Jr. NO	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Dareke Young LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Treyton Welch NO	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Oscar Delp NO	Anytime TD	Yes	0	24%	-28.4%	0Miss
Kirk Cousins LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Travis Etienne Jr. NO	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Connor Heyward LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Dylan Laube LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Jalen Nailor LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Michael Mayer LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Mike Washington Jr. LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	1Hit
Barion Brown NO	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Bryce Lance NO	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
CJ Donaldson NO	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss
Malik Benson LV	Anytime TD	Yes	0	20%	-32.4%	0Miss

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Las Vegas Raiders

deep left11/1 · 20 yds

deep middle10/1 · 0 yds

deep right20/2 · 0 yds

short left108/10 · 86 yds

short middle63/6 · 26 yds

short right1310/13 · 116 yds

Line of scrimmage

33 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

New Orleans Saints

deep left21/2 · 16 yds

deep middle10/1 · 0 yds

deep right41/4 · 19 yds

short left1411/14 · 96 yds

short middle21/2 · 11 yds

short right1915/19 · 113 yds

Line of scrimmage

42 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 88/135 (65%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00LV35–27
END GAME
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.0%
Q4 0:36LV2nd & 11 at NO 3635–27
K.Cousins kneels to NO 37 for -1 yards.
EPA-3.04
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards-1
PredictedPass 50%×incorrect
Q4 0:53LV1st & 10 at NO 3535–27
K.Cousins kneels to NO 36 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.84
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 64%✓correct
Q4 1:02NO1st & 10 at NO 40Turnover35–27
(Shotgun) T.Shough pass short right to J.Johnson to NO 41 for 1 yard (N.Dean). FUMBLES (N.Dean), touched at NO 40, RECOVERED by LV-E.Stokes at NO 35.
EPA-5.96
WPA (home)-3.6%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetJ.Johnson
PredictedPass 86%✓correct
Q4 1:08NO2nd & 14 at NO 2135–27
(No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Shough pass deep right to C.Olave ran ob at NO 40 for 19 yards (T.Johnson).
EPA+2.30
WPA (home)+2.7%
Home WP3.7%
Yards19
Air zonedeep right
TargetC.Olave
PredictedPass 92%✓correct
Q4 1:31NO1st & 10 at NO 2535–27
(Shotgun) T.Shough pass short right to J.Johnson to NO 21 for -4 yards (Q.Walker).
EPA-1.22
WPA (home)-2.0%
Home WP1.0%
Yards-4
Air zoneshort right
TargetJ.Johnson
PredictedPass 86%✓correct
Q4 1:38NO1st & 10 at NO 2035–27
(Shotgun) T.Shough pass short middle intended for J.Johnson INTERCEPTED by T.Hemingway [M.Crosby] at NO 16. T.Hemingway to NO 16 for no gain (T.Shough).PENALTY on LV-J.Chinn, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at NO 20 - No Play.
WPA (home)+0.3%
Home WP3.0%
Air zoneshort middle
TargetJ.Johnson
Q4 1:44LV4th & 14 at LV 4035–27
A.Cole punts 40 yards to NO 20, Center-A.Ward, out of bounds.
WPA (home)-0.7%
Home WP2.7%
Q4 1:44LV4th & 14 at LV 4035–27
Timeout #3 by NO at 01:44.
WPA (home)-0.7%
Home WP3.4%
Q4 1:48LV3rd & 5 at LV 4935–27
K.Cousins sacked at LV 40 for -9 yards (C.Young). FUMBLES (C.Young) [C.Young], recovered by LV-C.Heyward at LV 40.
EPA+2.33
WPA (home)+2.5%
Home WP4.1%
PredictedPass 78%✓correct
Q4 1:48LV3rd & 5 at LV 4935–27
Timeout #2 by NO at 01:48.
WPA (home)-0.7%
Home WP1.6%
Q4 1:55LV2nd & 6 at LV 4835–27
A.Jeanty right end to LV 49 for 1 yard (K.Elliss; J.Reid).
EPA+3.10
WPA (home)+0.6%
Home WP2.3%
Yards1
PredictedRun 60%✓correct
Q4 1:55LV2nd & 6 at LV 4835–27
Timeout #1 by NO at 01:55.
WPA (home)-0.6%
Home WP1.7%
Q4 2:00LV1st & 10 at LV 4435–27
A.Jeanty right guard to LV 48 for 4 yards (N.Shepherd; D.Godchaux).
EPA+3.54
WPA (home)+0.8%
Home WP2.3%
Yards4
PredictedRun 84%✓correct
Q4 2:00LV1st & 10 at LV 4435–27
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)-0.4%
Home WP1.5%
Q4 2:15LV1st & 10 at LV 3235–27
A.Jeanty right tackle to LV 44 for 12 yards (J.Blackmon).
EPA+4.90
WPA (home)-0.7%
Home WP1.9%
Yards12
PredictedRun 84%✓correct
Q4 2:21NO4th & 1 at LV 20Turnover35–27
(Shotgun) T.Shough sacked at LV 30 for -10 yards (J.Chinn). FUMBLES (J.Chinn) [J.Chinn], RECOVERED by LV-T.Johnson at LV 32. Fumble Forced by 98-M.Crosby.
EPA-4.69
WPA (home)-13.0%
Home WP2.6%
PredictedPass 67%✓correct
Q4 2:21NO4th & 1 at LV 2035–27
Timeout #1 by LV at 02:21.
WPA (home)+3.4%
Home WP15.7%
Q4 3:01NO3rd & 1 at LV 2035–27
(No Huddle, Shotgun) A.Kamara up the middle to LV 20 for no gain (M.Koonce).
EPA+0.59
WPA (home)-14.6%
Home WP12.3%
Yards0
PredictedPass 62%×incorrect
Q4 3:38NO2nd & 10 at LV 2935–27
(Shotgun) T.Shough pass short right to C.Olave to LV 20 for 9 yards (T.Johnson).
EPA+0.44
WPA (home)+9.7%
Home WP26.9%
Yards9
Air zoneshort right
TargetC.Olave
PredictedPass 78%✓correct
Q4 3:43NO1st & 10 at LV 2935–27
(Shotgun) T.Shough pass incomplete short right to K.Miller.
EPA-0.71
WPA (home)-3.2%
Home WP17.2%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetK.Miller (inc)
PredictedPass 67%✓correct
Q4 3:52NO1st & 10 at NO 4935–27
(Shotgun) T.Shough pass short left to J.Johnson ran ob at LV 29 for 22 yards (I.Pola-Mao).
EPA+1.58
WPA (home)+4.0%
Home WP20.5%
Yards22
Air zoneshort left
TargetJ.Johnson
PredictedPass 67%✓correct
Q4 4:30NO3rd & 1 at NO 4435–27
(Shotgun) K.Miller right end to NO 49 for 5 yards (J.Chinn). FUMBLES (J.Chinn), ball out of bounds at LV 47.
EPA+1.28
WPA (home)-0.6%
Home WP16.5%
Yards5
PredictedPass 62%×incorrect
Q4 5:09NO2nd & 7 at NO 3835–27
(Shotgun) A.Kamara up the middle to NO 44 for 6 yards (N.Dean).
EPA+0.06
WPA (home)+2.3%
Home WP17.1%
Yards6
PredictedPass 78%×incorrect
Q4 5:44NO1st & 10 at NO 3535–27
A.Kamara right end to NO 38 for 3 yards (Q.Walker; K.Paye).
EPA-0.33
WPA (home)-2.1%
Home WP14.8%
Yards3
PredictedPass 67%×incorrect
Q4 6:17NO1st & 10 at NO 2435–27
A.Kamara left guard to NO 35 for 11 yards (N.Dean).
EPA+0.79
WPA (home)+2.7%
Home WP16.8%
Yards11
PredictedPass 66%×incorrect
Q4 6:22LV35–27
M.Gay kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to NO 4. J.Price to NO 24 for 20 yards (D.Young).
WPA (home)+0.3%
Home WP14.2%
Q4 6:22LV & Goal at NO 1535–27
Official Timeout at 06:22.
WPA (home)-0.3%
Home WP13.8%
Q4 6:22LV3rd & Goal at NO 4Score35–27
(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short left to B.Bowers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.
EPA+1.97
WPA (home)-12.1%
Home WP14.2%
Yards4
Air zoneshort left
TargetB.Bowers
PredictedPass 56%✓correct
Q4 7:10LV2nd & Goal at NO 228–27
T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. A.Jeanty up the middle to NO 4 for -2 yards (K.Boyd).
EPA-0.95
WPA (home)+3.5%
Home WP26.3%
Yards-2
PredictedRun 77%✓correct

Box score

Team stats	LV	NO
Total yards	340	381
Yards / play	5.4	5.3
Turnovers	1	4
3rd down	7-12	9-15
Red zone	3-6	4-4
Possession	27:32	32:28

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
K.Cousins	22/33	248	3	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
A.Jeanty	19	56	2.9	0
M.Washington Jr.	5	54	10.8	1
K.Cousins	3	3	1.0	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
B.Bowers	10/13	116	1
T.Tucker	4/4	43	0
A.Jeanty	3/3	37	0
M.Mayer	3/3	32	1
J.Nailor	1/3	16	0

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
J.Chinn	8	1	0
H.Masses	6	0	1
N.Dean	12	0	0
T.Johnson	8	0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
T.Shough	29/42	255	4	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
T.Etienne Jr.	13	57	4.4
T.Shough	1	36	36.0
A.Kamara	9	36	4.0
K.Miller	4	14	3.5
C.Donaldson	1	5	5.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
C.Olave	9/13	107	0
J.Johnson	8/8	53	2
D.Vele	3/6	39	0
N.Fant	4/4	33	2
T.Etienne Jr.	2/2	13	0

Defense	TKL	SACK
C.Young	2	2
K.Elliss	9	0
K.Boyd	3	1
D.Stutsman	7	0

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

New Orleans Saints