Commanders
0-2
20
Cowboys
1-1
37
Final
Pregame model pick
DAL 58.2%
Correct · ATS loss
- Model spread
- DAL -3
- Model total
- 50.1
- ATS pick
- WSH +4.5
- -1.7 pt edge
- Total pick
- Pass
- -1.4 pt edge
Model breakdown
Why the model likes DAL
The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.
- Market priorhelps DAL+3.4 pts · +9.9%
Opening line DAL -4.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 1 game
- Pass defensehurts DAL-2.0 pts · -5.6%
DAL +1.00 vs WSH -0.73 EPA/dropback allowed (vs. league avg)
- Passing offensehelps DAL+1.1 pts · +3.2%
DAL +0.36 vs WSH -0.44 EPA/dropback (vs. league avg)
- Home fieldhelps DAL+0.4 pts · +1.2%
DAL at home (1.7 pts)
- Point differentialhurts DAL-0.2 pts · -0.6%
DAL -8.0 vs WSH -2.0 per game
- Rushing offensehelps DAL+0.2 pts · +0.5%
DAL -0.12 vs WSH -0.25 EPA/rush (vs. league avg)
- Run defensehurts DAL-0.1 pts · -0.3%
DAL +0.10 vs WSH +0.00 EPA/rush allowed (vs. league avg)
Early-season sample (1 game), so the stats are shrunk toward average and the market carries more weight.
Model vs. market
DAL win probability
- GameLens
- 58%
- Market
- 66%
- Difference
- -8%
Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.
Matchup Lens
The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.
- Edge: WSHMajor
WSH red-zone offense vs DAL red-zone defense
- WSH red-zone TD rate
- 100% (1st)
- DAL red-zone TD rate allowed
- 100% (18th)
- Edge: DALClear
DAL third-down offense vs WSH third-down defense
- DAL third-down conversion rate
- 73% (2nd)
- WSH third-down rate allowed
- 43% (14th)
- Edge: WSHClear
WSH third-down offense vs DAL third-down defense
- WSH third-down conversion rate
- 33% (16th)
- DAL third-down rate allowed
- 82% (26th)
- Edge: WSHClear
WSH big-play defense vs DAL explosive plays
- DAL explosive-play rate
- 1.9% (32nd)
- WSH explosive-play rate allowed
- 11.3% (20th)
- Edge: DALClear
DAL big-play defense vs WSH explosive plays
- WSH explosive-play rate
- 7.5% (21st)
- DAL explosive-play rate allowed
- 5.9% (6th)
Live win probability
Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.
Win probability
100.0% DAL win probability
Key moments
Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.
Key moments
- defenseQ3 7:15
M.Mariota pass short left to D.Brown to WAS 18 for -6 yards (J.Barham). FUMBLES (J.Barham), RECOVERED by DAL-D.Winters at WAS 18. D.Winters ran ob at WAS 13 for 5 yards.
WPA +10.3%EPA -6.39 - touchdownQ3 6:32
(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short middle to J.Ferguson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Sieg, Holder-B.Anger.
WPA +4.7%EPA +2.12 - defenseQ3 8:04
(Shotgun) D.Prescott sacked at WAS 26 for -4 yards (K.Chaisson).
WPA -4.5%EPA -0.79 - big playQ1 8:05
(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb ran ob at WAS 26 for 38 yards (N.Cross).
WPA +3.6%EPA +2.74 - touchdownQ2 6:37
(No Huddle) J.Daniels pass short left to S.Diggs for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.
WPA -3.6%EPA +1.27 - defenseQ2 6:37
D.Shelton reported in as eligible. D.Prescott sacked at DAL 26 for -9 yards (J.Kinlaw).
WPA -3.2%EPA -1.86
Highlights
Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.
Highlights
Highlight clips post during and after the game.
Player props
Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.
Player props
Passing target maps
Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.
Target maps
35 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
32 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
Play-by-play
EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.
Play-by-play
Play-call model: 73/124 (59%) run/pass correct
- Q4 0:00WSH20–37
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP100.0% - Q4 0:37WSH3rd & 5 at DAL 3620–37
K.Allen left tackle to DAL 33 for 3 yards (S.Revel).
EPA-2.67WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards3PredictedPass 97%×incorrect - Q4 1:16WSH2nd & 9 at DAL 4020–37
K.Allen left tackle to DAL 36 for 4 yards (D.Ezeiruaku).
EPA-0.19WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards4PredictedPass 94%×incorrect - Q4 2:00WSH1st & 10 at DAL 4120–37
K.Allen left tackle to DAL 40 for 1 yard (K.Clark).
EPA-0.59WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards1PredictedPass 74%×incorrect - Q4 2:00WSH1st & 10 at DAL 4120–37
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 2:23WSH2nd & 3 at 5020–37
K.Allen left tackle to DAL 41 for 9 yards (D.Winters). WAS-S.Cosmi was injured during the play.
EPA+3.93WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards9PredictedPass 65%×incorrect - Q4 3:01WSH1st & 10 at WSH 4320–37
(Shotgun) K.Allen left end to 50 for 7 yards (D.Winters).
EPA+0.17WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards7PredictedPass 74%×incorrect - Q4 3:07DAL20–37
B.Aubrey kicks 55 yards from DAL 35 to WAS 10. J.Lane to WAS 43 for 33 yards (C.Downs). FUMBLES (C.Downs), and recovers at WAS 43.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 3:07DAL2nd & 6 at WSH 24Score20–37
(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Sieg, Holder-B.Anger.
EPA+2.82WPA (home)+0.6%Home WP99.9%Yards24Air zonedeep rightTargetC.LambPredictedRun 85%×incorrect - Q4 3:54DAL1st & 10 at WSH 2820–30
J.Williams up the middle to WAS 24 for 4 yards (J.Jean-Baptiste; L.Chenal).
EPA-0.21WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP99.3%Yards4PredictedRun 81%✓correct - Q4 4:39DAL3rd & 1 at WSH 2920–30
H.Luepke up the middle to WAS 28 for 1 yard (L.Chenal).
EPA+0.99WPA (home)+0.6%Home WP99.3%Yards1PredictedRun 83%✓correct - Q4 5:17DAL2nd & 1 at WSH 2920–30
(Shotgun) J.Williams right guard to WAS 29 for no gain (D.Armstrong; S.Styles).
EPA-0.70WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP98.7%Yards0PredictedRun 71%✓correct - Q4 5:40DAL1st & 10 at WSH 3820–30
J.Williams left guard to WAS 29 for 9 yards (L.Chenal; J.Reaves). WAS-J.Kinlaw was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: WAS-J.Kinlaw has returned to the game.
EPA+0.43WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP98.8%Yards9PredictedRun 62%✓correct - Q4 5:40DAL1st & 10 at WSH 3820–30
Timeout #1 by DAL at 05:40.
WPA (home)+0.4%Home WP98.8% - Q4 6:16DAL2nd & 12 at DAL 2720–30
(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb pushed ob at WAS 38 for 35 yards (Q.Martin).
EPA+6.08WPA (home)+3.0%Home WP98.5%Yards35Air zonedeep rightTargetC.LambPredictedPass 52%✓correct - Q4 7:04DAL1st & 18 at DAL 2120–30
(Shotgun) D.Prescott scrambles left end to DAL 27 for 6 yards (T.Settle).
EPA-0.17WPA (home)-0.9%Home WP95.5%Yards6PredictedRun 50%✓correct - Q4 7:12DAL1st & 18 at DAL 2120–30
Official Timeout at 07:12.
WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP96.4% - Q4 7:23DAL1st & 10 at DAL 2920–30
J.Williams right end to WAS 46 for 25 yards (N.Cross). WAS-J.Kinlaw was injured during the play. PENALTY on DAL-G.Pickens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 31.
EPA+4.89WPA (home)-0.2%Home WP96.2%Yards-18PredictedRun 62%✓correct - Q4 7:41DAL3rd & 1 at DAL 2620–30
D.Prescott up the middle to DAL 29 for 3 yards (T.Settle). DAL-J.Ferguson was injured during the play.
EPA+1.14WPA (home)+1.0%Home WP96.4%Yards3PredictedRun 67%✓correct - Q4 8:16DAL2nd & 3 at DAL 2420–30
J.Williams right tackle to DAL 26 for 2 yards (L.Chenal).
EPA-0.45WPA (home)+0.4%Home WP95.5%Yards2PredictedRun 71%✓correct - Q4 8:58DAL1st & 10 at DAL 1720–30
D.Prescott pass short right to J.Ferguson to DAL 24 for 7 yards (J.Jean-Baptiste).
EPA+0.17WPA (home)+0.3%Home WP95.1%Yards7Air zoneshort rightTargetJ.FergusonPredictedRun 62%×incorrect - Q4 9:03WSH20–30
D.Stevens kicks 60 yards from WAS 35 to DAL 5. K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 40 for 35 yards (J.Reaves). PENALTY on DAL-C.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 27.
WPA (home)-0.4%Home WP94.7% - Q4 9:03WSH & Goal at DAL 1520–30
Official Timeout at 09:03.
WPA (home)+0.7%Home WP95.1% - Q4 9:03WSH1st & 10 at DAL 20Score20–30
(Shotgun) M.Mariota pass deep right to S.Diggs for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [O.Ogbonnia]. D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.
EPA+2.04WPA (home)-2.9%Home WP94.4%Yards20Air zonedeep rightTargetS.DiggsPredictedPass 62%✓correct - Q4 9:39WSH2nd & 5 at DAL 2813–30
(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Mariota pass short left to D.Brown ran ob at DAL 20 for 8 yards (S.Revel).
EPA+1.02WPA (home)-0.2%Home WP97.2%Yards8Air zoneshort leftTargetD.BrownPredictedPass 75%✓correct - Q4 10:08WSH1st & 10 at DAL 3313–30
(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Mariota pass short left to A.Williams to DAL 28 for 5 yards (C.Downs).
EPA-0.08WPA (home)0.0%Home WP97.4%Yards5Air zoneshort leftTargetA.WilliamsPredictedPass 72%✓correct - Q4 10:49WSH3rd & 4 at DAL 4313–30
(Shotgun) M.Mariota pass short right to R.White to DAL 33 for 10 yards (S.James; D.Bland) [K.Clark].
EPA+1.81WPA (home)-0.7%Home WP97.4%Yards10Air zoneshort rightTargetR.WhitePredictedPass 87%✓correct - Q4 10:54WSH2nd & 4 at DAL 4313–30
(Shotgun) M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to T.McLaurin.
EPA-0.70WPA (home)+0.6%Home WP98.1%Yards0Air zonedeep leftTargetT.McLaurin (inc)PredictedPass 75%✓correct - Q4 11:32WSH1st & 10 at DAL 4913–30
(Shotgun) M.Mariota pass short middle to R.White to DAL 43 for 6 yards (D.Winters). WAS-B.Coleman was injured during the play.
EPA+0.05WPA (home)0.0%Home WP97.5%Yards6Air zoneshort middleTargetR.WhitePredictedPass 71%✓correct - Q4 12:07WSH1st & 10 at WSH 4113–30
(Shotgun) M.Mariota pass short left to A.Williams pushed ob at DAL 49 for 10 yards (D.Winters).
EPA+0.72WPA (home)-0.2%Home WP97.5%Yards10Air zoneshort leftTargetA.WilliamsPredictedPass 71%✓correct
Box score
Box score
| Team stats | WSH | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 389 | 332 |
| Yards / play | 5.8 | 6.1 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| 3rd down | 8-14 | 7-11 |
| Red zone | 1-3 | 3-4 |
| Possession | 31:29 | 28:31 |
Washington Commanders
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 M.Mariota | 11/16 | 111 | 1 | 0 |
 J.Daniels | 11/17 | 96 | 1 | 0 |
 D.Brown | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 A.Williams | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Daniels | 7 | 69 | 9.9 | 0 |
 R.White | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 |
 J.Croskey-Merritt | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
 K.Allen | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| M.Mariota | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 T.McLaurin | 2/9 | 50 | 0 |
 S.Diggs | 5/6 | 47 | 2 |
| R.White | 6/6 | 40 | 0 |
| A.Williams | 3/3 | 24 | 0 |
| D.Brown | 4/6 | 21 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 L.Chenal | 12 | 0 | 0 |
 K.Chaisson | 3 | 1 | 0 |
 J.Reaves | 7 | 0 | 0 |
 J.Kinlaw | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Dallas Cowboys
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 D.Prescott | 26/31 | 279 | 4 | 0 |
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 J.Williams | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 |
| D.Prescott | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
 E.Demercado | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
 K.Turpin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
 H.Luepke | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 C.Lamb | 8/9 | 153 | 2 |
 J.Ferguson | 4/4 | 43 | 2 |
 G.Pickens | 6/8 | 40 | 0 |
 R.Flournoy | 5/6 | 23 | 0 |
| J.Williams | 3/4 | 20 | 0 |
