Bills
1-0
36
Texans
0-1
31
Final
Pregame model pick
BUF 52.1%
Correct
- Model spread
- HOU +0.5
- Model total
- 45.4
- ATS pick
- Pass
- +0.8 pt edge
- Total pick
- Pass
- -0.1 pt edge
Model breakdown
Why the model likes BUF
The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.
- Market priorhelps BUF+1.1 pts · +3.3%
Opening line BUF -1.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 0 games
- Home fieldhurts BUF-0.4 pts · -1.3%
HOU at home (1.7 pts)
Model vs. market
BUF win probability
- GameLens
- 52%
- Market
- 50%
- Difference
- +2%
Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.
Matchup Lens
The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.
Matchup edges appear once both teams have played.
Live win probability
Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.
Win probability
100.0% BUF win probability
Key moments
Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.
Key moments
- clutchQ4 0:25
(Shotgun) C.Stroud sacked at BUF 18 for -9 yards (D.Walker).
WPA -41.3%EPA -0.53 - clutchQ4 1:36
(Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Allen pass to K.Coleman is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
WPA -40.4%EPA +4.52 - clutchQ4 0:35
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short middle to N.Collins to BUF 27 for 12 yards (C.Gardner-Johnson).
WPA +24.2%EPA +2.77 - clutchQ4 0:30
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short right to J.Noel pushed ob at BUF 9 for 18 yards (C.Gardner-Johnson).
WPA +20.5%EPA +2.35 - clutchQ4 6:44
K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.
WPA +18.2% - clutchQ4 2:00
J.Allen pass short right to D.Kincaid pushed ob at HST 33 for 35 yards (J.Pitre).
WPA -14.7%EPA +2.52
Highlights
Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.
Highlights
Highlight clips post during and after the game.
Player props
Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.
Player props
Passing target maps
Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.
Target maps
31 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
41 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
Play-by-play
EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.
Play-by-play
Play-call model: 77/124 (62%) run/pass correct
- Q4 0:00BUF36–31
END GAME
WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP0.0% - Q4 0:09BUF1st & 10 at BUF 2436–31
J.Allen kneels to BUF 23 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.93WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards-1PredictedRun 54%✓correct - Q4 0:16HOU3rd & Goal at BUF 18Turnover36–31
(Shotgun) C.Stroud sacked at BUF 28 for -10 yards (G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (G.Rousseau) [G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-T.Bernard at BUF 24.
EPA-4.18WPA (home)-8.8%Home WP0.1%PredictedPass 96%✓correct - Q4 0:20HOU2nd & Goal at BUF 1836–31
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to N.Collins.
EPA-0.70WPA (home)-4.3%Home WP8.9%Yards0Air zonedeep rightTargetN.Collins (inc)PredictedPass 88%✓correct - Q4 0:20HOU2nd & 18 at BUF 1836–31
Timeout #3 by HST at 00:20.
WPA (home)-0.5%Home WP13.2% - Q4 0:25HOU1st & Goal at BUF 936–31
(Shotgun) C.Stroud sacked at BUF 18 for -9 yards (D.Walker).
EPA-0.53WPA (home)-41.3%Home WP13.7%PredictedPass 81%✓correct - Q4 0:30HOU3rd & 3 at BUF 2736–31
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short right to J.Noel pushed ob at BUF 9 for 18 yards (C.Gardner-Johnson).
EPA+2.35WPA (home)+20.5%Home WP54.9%Yards18Air zoneshort rightTargetJ.NoelPredictedPass 92%✓correct - Q4 0:30HOU3rd & 3 at BUF 2736–31
Timeout #1 by BUF at 00:30.
WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP34.4% - Q4 0:30HOU3rd & 3 at BUF 2736–31
Timeout #2 by HST at 00:30.
WPA (home)-1.2%Home WP34.5% - Q4 0:35HOU2nd & 15 at BUF 3936–31
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short middle to N.Collins to BUF 27 for 12 yards (C.Gardner-Johnson).
EPA+2.77WPA (home)+24.2%Home WP35.7%Yards12Air zoneshort middleTargetN.CollinsPredictedPass 88%✓correct - Q4 0:39HOU1st & 15 at BUF 3936–31
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass incomplete deep middle to X.Hutchinson [G.Rousseau].
EPA-0.85WPA (home)-1.7%Home WP11.5%Yards0Air zonedeep middleTargetX.Hutchinson (inc)PredictedPass 87%✓correct - Q4 0:39HOU1st & 10 at BUF 3436–31
(Shotgun) PENALTY on HST-T.Brown, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 34 - No Play.
WPA (home)-11.6%Home WP13.2% - Q4 0:44HOU3rd & 2 at BUF 4536–31
(Shotgun) W.Marks up the middle to BUF 39 for 6 yards (T.Bernard; B.Chubb).PENALTY on BUF-D.Walker, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 39.
EPA+1.77WPA (home)+1.9%Home WP24.8%Yards6PredictedPass 78%×incorrect - Q4 0:50HOU2nd & 2 at BUF 4536–31
(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to X.Hutchinson.
EPA-0.70WPA (home)-8.0%Home WP23.0%Yards0Air zonedeep rightTargetX.Hutchinson (inc)PredictedPass 74%✓correct - Q4 1:11HOU1st & 10 at HOU 4736–31
(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short right to D.Schultz to BUF 45 for 8 yards (D.Hamlin; C.Bishop).
EPA+0.30WPA (home)+7.0%Home WP31.0%Yards8Air zoneshort rightTargetD.SchultzPredictedPass 81%✓correct - Q4 1:31HOU1st & 10 at HOU 2936–31
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short right to D.Schultz to HST 47 for 18 yards (D.Alford; E.Oliver).
EPA+1.30WPA (home)+7.9%Home WP24.0%Yards18Air zoneshort rightTargetD.SchultzPredictedPass 81%✓correct - Q4 1:36BUF36–31
T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HST 3. J.Noel to HST 29 for 26 yards (J.Solomon).
WPA (home)+6.3%Home WP16.2% - Q4 1:36BUF3rd & 11 at HOU 34Score36–31
(Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Allen pass to K.Coleman is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
EPA+4.52WPA (home)-40.4%Home WP9.8%Yards34Air zonedeep middleTargetJ.Palmer (inc)PredictedPass 84%✓correct - Q4 1:48BUF2nd & 11 at HOU 3430–31
J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to J.Palmer.
EPA-0.70WPA (home)+4.8%Home WP50.2%Yards0Air zonedeep leftTargetJ.Palmer (inc)PredictedPass 85%✓correct - Q4 1:48BUF2nd & 11 at HOU 3430–31
Timeout #1 by HST at 01:48.
WPA (home)-0.8%Home WP45.5% - Q4 1:53BUF1st & 10 at HOU 3330–31
J.Cook up the middle to HST 34 for -1 yards (A.Al-Shaair).
EPA+1.61WPA (home)+8.6%Home WP46.3%Yards-1PredictedPass 76%×incorrect - Q4 2:00BUF1st & 10 at BUF 3230–31
J.Allen pass short right to D.Kincaid pushed ob at HST 33 for 35 yards (J.Pitre).
EPA+2.52WPA (home)-14.7%Home WP37.7%Yards35Air zoneshort rightTargetD.KincaidPredictedPass 52%✓correct - Q4 2:00BUF1st & 10 at BUF 3230–31
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP52.4% - Q4 2:06BUF2nd & 3 at BUF 2630–31
J.Allen pass short right to J.Cook ran ob at BUF 32 for 6 yards (D.Stingley).
EPA+5.66WPA (home)-1.5%Home WP52.5%Yards6Air zoneshort rightTargetJ.CookPredictedRun 58%×incorrect - Q4 2:20BUF2nd & 3 at BUF 2630–31
Official Timeout at 02:20.
WPA (home)-0.6%Home WP54.1% - Q4 2:34BUF1st & 10 at BUF 1930–31
J.Allen pass short left to D.Knox to BUF 26 for 7 yards (K.Lassiter; H.To'oTo'o). HST-H.To'oTo'o was injured during the play.
EPA+5.50WPA (home)-4.9%Home WP54.7%Yards7Air zoneshort leftTargetD.KnoxPredictedPass 52%✓correct - Q4 3:13BUF1st & 10 at BUF 430–31
J.Cook left guard to BUF 16 for 12 yards (D.Stingley). FUMBLES (D.Stingley), recovered by BUF-O.Torrence at BUF 19.
EPA+1.08WPA (home)-4.7%Home WP59.7%Yards15PredictedPass 52%×incorrect - Q4 3:24HOU4th & 9 at HOU 3730–31
K.Kroeger punts 59 yards to BUF 4, Center-A.Brinkman, downed by HST-J.Smith.
WPA (home)+7.2%Home WP64.4% - Q4 4:10HOU3rd & 9 at HOU 3730–31
(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short left to D.Schultz to HST 37 for no gain (B.Chubb; C.Bishop) [E.Oliver].
EPA+0.01WPA (home)-4.3%Home WP57.2%Yards0Air zoneshort leftTargetD.SchultzPredictedPass 70%✓correct - Q4 4:57HOU2nd & 7 at HOU 3930–31
B.Fisher reported in as eligible. D.Montgomery right end to HST 37 for -2 yards (D.Williams, E.Oliver).
EPA-0.95WPA (home)-3.3%Home WP61.5%Yards-2PredictedRun 60%✓correct
Box score
Box score
| Team stats | BUF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 409 | 381 |
| Yards / play | 7.9 | 5.2 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| 3rd down | 3-9 | 7-16 |
| Red zone | 1-3 | 4-5 |
| Possession | 23:43 | 36:17 |
Buffalo Bills
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 J.Allen | 20/29 | 334 | 2 | 0 |
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 J.Cook III | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 |
| J.Allen | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 2 |
 R.Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
 F.Gore Jr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 D.Kincaid | 5/6 | 130 | 0 |
 D.Moore | 5/8 | 100 | 1 |
 K.Shakir | 4/6 | 50 | 0 |
 J.Palmer | 1/2 | 34 | 1 |
| J.Cook III | 3/4 | 12 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 G.Rousseau | 4 | 2 | 0 |
 T.Bernard | 12 | 0 | 0 |
 D.Walker | 6 | 1 | 0 |
 D.Williams | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Houston Texans
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 C.Stroud | 26/38 | 274 | 2 | 0 |
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 D.Montgomery | 20 | 60 | 3.0 | 2 |
 W.Marks | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| C.Stroud | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
 N.Collins | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| N.Collins | 7/10 | 75 | 1 |
 J.Noel | 2/2 | 53 | 0 |
 D.Schultz | 4/8 | 35 | 0 |
 X.Hutchinson | 3/6 | 32 | 0 |
 K.Boutte | 1/2 | 21 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 A.Al-Shaair | 8 | 0 | 0 |
 R.Blankenship | 7 | 0 | 0 |
 C.Bullock | 6 | 0 | 0 |
 J.Pitre | 6 | 0 | 0 |