gameLens

Saints

0-1

30

Lions

1-0

31

Final/OT

Pregame model pick

DET 66.3%

Correct · ATS win

Low
Model spread
DET -5.5
Model total
47.6
ATS pick
NO +7
-1.3 pt edge
Total pick
Pass
-0.9 pt edge
Market · DraftKings
NO spread+7
NO ML+270
Over49.5
DET spread-7
DET ML-340
Under49.5

Model breakdown

Why the model likes DET

The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.

  • Market priorhelps DET+5.3 pts · +15.0%

    Opening line DET -7, weighted 75% while the sample is 0 games

  • Home fieldhelps DET+0.4 pts · +1.2%

    DET at home (1.7 pts)

Model vs. market

DET win probability

GameLens
66%
Market
74%
Difference
-8%

Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.

Matchup Lens

The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.

Matchup edges appear once both teams have played.

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

Win probability

100.0% DET win probability

DET aboveNO below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

Key moments

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Highlights

Highlight clips post during and after the game.

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player props

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Target maps

New Orleans Saints
deep left10/1 · 0 yds2% of targets
deep middle32/3 · 60 yds5% of targets
deep right65/6 · 144 yds11% of targets
short left2010/20 · 50 yds36% of targets
short middle32/3 · 24 yds5% of targets
short right2215/22 · 124 yds40% of targets
Line of scrimmage

55 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Detroit Lions
deep left31/3 · 22 yds8% of targets
deep middle0—
deep right31/3 · 19 yds8% of targets
short left1512/15 · 71 yds39% of targets
short middle54/5 · 47 yds13% of targets
short right128/12 · 43 yds32% of targets
Line of scrimmage

38 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-by-play

Play-call model: 105/157 (67%) run/pass correct

  1. QOT 1:34NO30–31

    END GAME

    WPA (home)+47.0%
    Home WP100.0%
  2. QOT 1:34NO & Goal at DET 1530–31

    Timeout #1 by DET at 01:34.

  3. QOT 1:34NO2nd & Goal at DET 8Score30–31

    (Shotgun) T.Shough pass short right to N.Fant for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. T.Shough pass to B.Lance is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

    EPA+1.78
    WPA (home)-23.6%
    Home WP53.0%
    Yards8
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetN.Fant (inc)
    PredictedPass 85%✓correct
  4. QOT 1:45NO1st & Goal at DET 824–31

    T.Shough pass incomplete short right to J.Johnson (D.Barnes).

    EPA-0.66
    WPA (home)+6.3%
    Home WP76.6%
    Yards0
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetJ.Johnson (inc)
    PredictedPass 83%✓correct
  5. QOT 1:53NO1st & 10 at DET 3524–31

    (Shotgun) T.Shough pass deep right to J.Johnson pushed ob at DET 8 for 27 yards (T.Harper).

    EPA+2.00
    WPA (home)-13.6%
    Home WP70.3%
    Yards27
    Air zonedeep right
    TargetJ.Johnson
    PredictedPass 83%✓correct
  6. QOT 2:00NO2nd & 8 at DET 4024–31

    (Shotgun) T.Shough pass incomplete short left to T.Etienne.PENALTY on DET-K.Abney, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at DET 40 - No Play.

    WPA (home)-3.7%
    Home WP84.0%
    Air zoneshort left
    TargetT.Etienne
  7. QOT 2:00NO2nd & 8 at DET 4024–31

    Two-Minute Warning

    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP87.7%
  8. QOT 2:12NO1st & 10 at DET 4224–31

    K.Miller up the middle to DET 40 for 2 yards (E.O'Neill; A.Maddox).

    EPA+2.42
    WPA (home)+2.4%
    Home WP87.7%
    Yards2
    PredictedPass 62%×incorrect
  9. QOT 2:17NO2nd & 9 at NO 4824–31

    (No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Shough pass short right to N.Fant ran ob at DET 42 for 10 yards (R.Ya-Sin).

    EPA+1.38
    WPA (home)-4.3%
    Home WP85.3%
    Yards10
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetN.Fant
    PredictedPass 74%✓correct
  10. QOT 2:38NO1st & 10 at NO 4724–31

    T.Etienne right tackle to NO 48 for 1 yard (R.McCreary).

    EPA-0.59
    WPA (home)+2.6%
    Home WP89.6%
    Yards1
    PredictedPass 62%×incorrect
  11. QOT 3:13NO4th & 3 at NO 2724–31

    (No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Shough pass deep right to C.Olave to NO 47 for 20 yards (A.Maddox). ** Injury Update: DET-R.Ya-Sin has returned to the game.

    EPA+3.32
    WPA (home)-6.8%
    Home WP87.0%
    Yards20
    Air zonedeep right
    TargetC.Olave
    PredictedPass 94%✓correct
  12. QOT 3:49NO3rd & 4 at NO 2624–31

    (Shotgun) T.Shough FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 21, recovered by NO-T.Etienne at NO 23. T.Etienne to NO 27 for 4 yards (D.Wonnum; D.Barnes).

    WPA (home)+1.8%
    Home WP93.8%
  13. QOT 4:17NO2nd & 12 at NO 1824–31

    (Shotgun) T.Shough pass short left to B.Lance to NO 26 for 8 yards (R.Ya-Sin). DET-R.Ya-Sin was injured during the play.

    EPA+0.32
    WPA (home)-2.2%
    Home WP92.1%
    Yards8
    Air zoneshort left
    TargetB.Lance
    PredictedPass 74%✓correct
  14. QOT 4:57NO1st & 10 at NO 2024–31

    (Shotgun) T.Shough sacked at NO 18 for -2 yards (A.McNeill).

    EPA-0.97
    WPA (home)+3.2%
    Home WP94.3%
    PredictedPass 61%✓correct
  15. QOT 5:04DET24–31

    J.Bates kicks 66 yards from DET 35 to NO -1. B.Brown to NO 20 for 21 yards (E.O'Neill).

    WPA (home)+0.3%
    Home WP91.0%
  16. QOT 5:04DET2nd & Goal at NO 4Score24–31

    (Shotgun) J.Goff pass short left to A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.

    EPA+1.27
    WPA (home)+9.5%
    Home WP90.7%
    Yards4
    Air zoneshort left
    TargetA.St. Brown
    PredictedRun 57%×incorrect
  17. QOT 5:45DET1st & Goal at NO 524–24

    J.Gibbs right tackle to NO 4 for 1 yard (K.Elliss).

    EPA-0.45
    WPA (home)-3.1%
    Home WP81.3%
    Yards1
    PredictedPass 50%×incorrect
  18. QOT 6:19DET2nd & 11 at NO 2724–24

    (Shotgun) J.Goff pass deep left to J.Williams ran ob at NO 5 for 22 yards.

    EPA+2.49
    WPA (home)+15.5%
    Home WP84.4%
    Yards22
    Air zonedeep left
    TargetJ.Williams
    PredictedPass 64%✓correct
  19. QOT 6:49DET1st & 10 at NO 2624–24

    J.Gibbs right end pushed ob at NO 27 for -1 yards (J.Sanker).

    EPA-0.84
    WPA (home)-4.0%
    Home WP68.8%
    Yards-1
    PredictedPass 50%×incorrect
  20. QOT 7:28DET2nd & 10 at NO 3624–24

    J.Gibbs left end to NO 26 for 10 yards (J.Blackmon).

    EPA+1.43
    WPA (home)+9.7%
    Home WP72.8%
    Yards10
    PredictedPass 64%×incorrect
  21. QOT 7:34DET1st & 10 at NO 3624–24

    J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to J.Williams.

    EPA-0.71
    WPA (home)-5.0%
    Home WP63.1%
    Yards0
    Air zonedeep left
    TargetJ.Williams (inc)
    PredictedPass 50%✓correct
  22. QOT 8:07DET2nd & 3 at NO 4324–24

    (Shotgun) J.Gibbs up the middle to NO 36 for 7 yards (J.Sanker).

    EPA+0.83
    WPA (home)+5.1%
    Home WP68.2%
    Yards7
    PredictedRun 60%✓correct
  23. QOT 8:47DET1st & 10 at 5024–24

    J.Goff pass short left to J.Gibbs to NO 43 for 7 yards (P.Werner).

    EPA+0.17
    WPA (home)+0.8%
    Home WP63.1%
    Yards7
    Air zoneshort left
    TargetJ.Gibbs
    PredictedPass 50%✓correct
  24. QOT 9:22DET2nd & 1 at DET 3924–24

    J.Gibbs up the middle to 50 for 11 yards (J.Sanker).

    EPA+1.01
    WPA (home)+5.8%
    Home WP62.3%
    Yards11
    PredictedRun 60%✓correct
  25. QOT 9:55DET1st & 10 at DET 3024–24

    J.Goff pass short right to S.LaPorta to DET 39 for 9 yards (J.Sanker).

    EPA+0.43
    WPA (home)+3.3%
    Home WP56.5%
    Yards9
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetS.LaPorta
    PredictedPass 50%✓correct
  26. QOT 10:00NO24–24

    D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from NO 35 to DET 5. J.Saylors to DET 30 for 25 yards (T.Wilson; J.Howden).

    WPA (home)+3.2%
    Home WP53.2%
  27. Q4 0:00DET24–24

    END QUARTER 4

    WPA (home)-0.9%
    Home WP50.0%
  28. Q4 0:02NO3rd & 10 at DET 4424–24

    D.Carlson 62 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-Z.Wood, Holder-R.Wright.

    WPA (home)-0.4%
    Home WP50.9%
  29. Q4 0:06NO2nd & 10 at DET 4424–24

    (Shotgun) T.Shough pass incomplete short right.

    EPA-2.52
    WPA (home)+0.4%
    Home WP51.3%
    Yards0
    PredictedPass 84%✓correct
  30. Q4 0:06NO2nd & 10 at DET 4324–24

    Timeout #1 by DET at 00:06.

    WPA (home)-0.8%
    Home WP50.9%

Box score

Box score

Team statsNODET
Total yards469369
Yards / play5.55.1
Turnovers31
3rd down8-175-13
Red zone4-54-5
Possession31:3536:51

New Orleans Saints

PassingC/ATTYDSTDINT
T.Shough35/5641032
RushingCARYDSYPCTD
T.Etienne Jr.9465.10
K.Miller9303.31
T.Shough482.00
C.Donaldson242.00
B.Brown133.00
ReceivingREC/TGTYDSTD
C.Olave10/131820
D.Vele7/9691
J.Johnson3/7541
B.Lance3/4420
N.Fant4/8331
DefenseTKLSACKINT
J.Sanker1000
K.Elliss900
J.Reid800
K.McKinstry700

Detroit Lions

PassingC/ATTYDSTDINT
J.Goff26/3920620
RushingCARYDSYPCTD
J.Gibbs291565.42
S.Vaki273.50
J.Goff221.00
ReceivingREC/TGTYDSTD
A.St. Brown10/14672
S.LaPorta5/8480
J.Williams4/9450
J.Gibbs5/5300
S.Vaki1/1110
DefenseTKLSACKINT
D.Barnes611
A.Hutchinson520
D.Reed1000
R.McCreary410