NYJ @ TEN

Jets

1-0

Titans

0-1

Final

Pregame model pick

TEN 57.9%

Missed

Low

Model spread: TEN -2.5
Model total: 40.9
ATS pick: Pass; -0.3 pt edge
Total pick: Pass; +1.4 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

NYJ spread+1.5

NYJ ML-102

Over39.5

TEN spread-1.5

TEN ML-118

Under39.5

Why the model likes TEN

The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.

Market priorhelps TEN+2.3 pts · +6.6%
Opening line TEN -3, weighted 75% while the sample is 0 games
Home fieldhelps TEN+0.4 pts · +1.2%
TEN at home (1.7 pts)

Model vs. market

TEN win probability

GameLens: 58%
Market: 52%
Difference: +6%

Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.

Matchup Lens

The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.

Matchup edges appear once both teams have played.

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% NYJ win probability

TEN aboveNYJ below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

big playQ3 11:14
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep right to A.Mitchell to TEN 11 for 40 yards (A.Hooker).
WPA -10.8%EPA +3.16
big playQ1 12:10
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass short left to O.Cooper to TEN 4 for 30 yards (A.Taylor; J.Johnson).
WPA -9.1%EPA +3.68
touchdownQ1 10:45
K.Sadiq left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.
WPA -4.2%EPA +1.15
big playQ3 12:19
(Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep right to G.Wilson pushed ob at TEN 41 for 31 yards (A.Taylor).
WPA -4.2%EPA +2.51
touchdownQ3 9:41
B.Hall left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on TEN, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.
WPA -3.6%EPA +1.22
defenseQ1 6:36
C.Ward sacked at NYJ 31 for -1 yards (K.Enagbare).
WPA -2.7%EPA -0.84

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Highlight clips post during and after the game.

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

No player prop lines posted yet.

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

New York Jets

deep left21/2 · 22 yds

deep middle0—

deep right33/3 · 89 yds

short left76/7 · 64 yds

short middle64/6 · 24 yds

short right75/7 · 16 yds

Line of scrimmage

25 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Tennessee Titans

deep left20/2 · 0 yds

deep middle10/1 · 0 yds

deep right10/1 · 0 yds

short left97/9 · 62 yds

short middle32/3 · 14 yds

short right1210/12 · 64 yds

Line of scrimmage

28 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 77/111 (69%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00NYJ23–10
END GAME
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.0%
Q4 0:38NYJ3rd & 12 at TEN 3723–10
G.Smith kneels to TEN 38 for -1 yards.
EPA-2.21
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards-1
PredictedPass 50%×incorrect
Q4 1:19NYJ2nd & 11 at TEN 3623–10
G.Smith kneels to TEN 37 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.83
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 77%✓correct
Q4 2:00NYJ1st & 10 at TEN 3523–10
G.Smith kneels to TEN 36 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.84
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 86%✓correct
Q4 2:00NYJ1st & 10 at TEN 3523–10
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 2:35NYJ2nd & 5 at TEN 4123–10
B.Hall up the middle to TEN 35 for 6 yards (A.Taylor; A.Hill).
EPA+3.39
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards6
PredictedRun 83%✓correct
Q4 2:35NYJ2nd & 5 at TEN 4123–10
Timeout #2 by TEN at 02:35.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 2:40NYJ1st & 10 at TEN 4623–10
B.Hall up the middle to TEN 41 for 5 yards (A.Hooker).
EPA+2.87
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards5
PredictedRun 86%✓correct
Q4 2:42TEN23–10
J.Slye kicks onside 11 yards from TEN 35 to TEN 46, impetus ends at TEN 44. G.Wilson (didn't try to advance) to TEN 46 for no gain.
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 2:42TEN3rd & 10 at NYJ 11Score23–10
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass short right to E.Ayomanor for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Cox, Holder-T.Townsend.
EPA+2.81
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP0.2%
Yards11
Air zoneshort right
TargetE.Ayomanor
PredictedPass 94%✓correct
Q4 2:49TEN2nd & 10 at NYJ 1123–3
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass incomplete short middle to G.Helm [H.Phillips].
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
Air zoneshort middle
TargetG.Helm (inc)
PredictedPass 87%✓correct
Q4 2:53TEN1st & 10 at NYJ 1123–3
(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Ward pass incomplete short left to E.Ayomanor.
EPA-0.71
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
Air zoneshort left
TargetE.Ayomanor (inc)
PredictedPass 79%✓correct
Q4 3:16TEN2nd & 2 at NYJ 2123–3
(No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Spears up the middle to NYJ 11 for 10 yards (D.Bailey).
EPA+0.99
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards10
PredictedPass 72%×incorrect
Q4 3:41TEN1st & 10 at NYJ 2923–3
(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Ward pass short right to T.Spears to NYJ 21 for 8 yards (A.Cisco).
EPA+0.30
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP0.1%
Yards8
Air zoneshort right
TargetT.Spears
PredictedPass 79%✓correct
Q4 3:48TEN2nd & 6 at NYJ 3923–3
(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Ward pass short left to G.Helm pushed ob at NYJ 29 for 10 yards (A.Cisco).
EPA+1.22
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards10
Air zoneshort left
TargetG.Helm
PredictedPass 82%✓correct
Q4 4:17TEN1st & 10 at NYJ 4323–3
(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Ward pass short right to T.Spears to NYJ 39 for 4 yards (A.Thomas; J.Brownlee).
EPA-0.21
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards4
Air zoneshort right
TargetT.Spears
PredictedPass 79%✓correct
Q4 4:37TEN2nd & 2 at TEN 4323–3
(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Ward pass short left to C.Tate to NYJ 43 for 14 yards (A.Cisco).
EPA+1.28
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards14
Air zoneshort left
TargetC.Tate
PredictedPass 71%✓correct
Q4 5:00TEN1st & 10 at TEN 3523–3
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass short left to W.Robinson to TEN 43 for 8 yards (D.Davis).
EPA+0.30
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards8
Air zoneshort left
TargetW.Robinson
PredictedPass 79%✓correct
Q4 5:00NYJ23–3
J.Sanders kicks 65 yards from NYJ 35 to end zone, Touchback to the TEN 35.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 5:00NYJ4th & 4 at TEN 34Score23–3
J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 5:05NYJ4th & 4 at TEN 3420–3
Timeout #1 by NYJ at 05:05.
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.1%
Q4 5:52NYJ3rd & 8 at TEN 3820–3
B.Allen left guard to TEN 34 for 4 yards (J.Franklin-Myers; K.Winston).
EPA+2.11
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.2%
Yards4
PredictedPass 67%×incorrect
Q4 6:35NYJ2nd & 10 at TEN 4020–3
(Shotgun) B.Allen left guard to TEN 38 for 2 yards (J.Franklin-Myers).
EPA-0.45
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.1%
Yards2
PredictedRun 63%✓correct
Q4 7:21NYJ1st & 10 at TEN 4020–3
B.Hall right end to TEN 40 for no gain (A.Taylor).
EPA-0.71
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.2%
Yards0
PredictedRun 75%✓correct
Q4 8:01NYJ1st & 10 at NYJ 4720–3
B.Hall right end pushed ob at TEN 40 for 13 yards (K.Winston).
EPA+0.94
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.2%
Yards13
PredictedRun 74%✓correct
Q4 8:11TEN4th & 5 at TEN 1820–3
T.Townsend punts 49 yards to NYJ 33, Center-M.Cox. I.Williams to NYJ 47 for 14 yards (M.Robinson).
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.2%
Q4 8:20TEN3rd & 5 at TEN 1820–3
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass incomplete short right.
EPA-1.94
WPA (home)-0.3%
Home WP0.2%
Yards0
PredictedPass 95%✓correct
Q4 8:23TEN2nd & 5 at TEN 1820–3
(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to C.Tate.
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)-0.3%
Home WP0.5%
Yards0
Air zonedeep left
TargetC.Tate (inc)
PredictedPass 77%✓correct
Q4 8:44TEN1st & 10 at TEN 1320–3
(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Ward pass short middle to G.Helm to TEN 18 for 5 yards (A.Cisco).
EPA-0.08
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.8%
Yards5
Air zoneshort middle
TargetG.Helm
PredictedPass 74%✓correct
Q4 9:10TEN2nd & 5 at TEN 720–3
(Shotgun) C.Ward pass short right to W.Robinson to TEN 13 for 6 yards (D.Belton).
EPA+0.87
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.8%
Yards6
Air zoneshort right
TargetW.Robinson
PredictedPass 77%✓correct

Box score

Team stats	NYJ	TEN
Total yards	367	195
Yards / play	5.8	4
Turnovers	0	1
3rd down	2-12	4-12
Red zone	2-3	1-1
Possession	38:46	21:14

New York Jets

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
G.Smith	19/24	215	0	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
B.Hall	22	102	4.6	1
B.Allen	10	40	4.0	0
G.Smith	6	7	1.2	0
K.Sadiq	1	3	3.0	1

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS
G.Wilson	6/7	79
A.Mitchell	3/3	60
O.Cooper Jr.	1/1	30
K.Sadiq	3/3	21
B.Hall	2/2	16

Defense	TKL	SACK
D.Bailey	4	1
D.Davis	8	0
K.Enagbare	2	1
W.McDonald IV	1	1

Tennessee Titans

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
C.Ward	19/32	140	1	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
T.Pollard	7	35	5.0
C.Ward	4	21	5.3
T.Spears	3	12	4.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
C.Tate	4/6	38	0
W.Robinson	5/6	38	0
G.Helm	4/5	28	0
T.Spears	2/4	12	0
E.Ayomanor	1/3	11	1

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
A.Hill Jr.	16	0	0
A.Hooker	10	0	0
K.Winston Jr.	10	0	0
M.Harris	7	0	0

Model breakdown

Why the model likes TEN

Model vs. market

Matchup Lens

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

New York Jets

Tennessee Titans