TB @ CIN

Buccaneers

0-1

Bengals

1-0

Final

Pregame model pick

CIN 58.9%

Correct

Low

Model spread: CIN -3
Model total: 49.1
ATS pick: Pass; -0.5 pt edge
Total pick: Pass; -1.4 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

TB spread+3.5

TB ML+164

Over50.5

CIN spread-3.5

CIN ML-198

Under50.5

Why the model likes CIN

The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.

Market priorhelps CIN+2.6 pts · +7.7%
Opening line CIN -3.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 0 games
Home fieldhelps CIN+0.4 pts · +1.2%
CIN at home (1.7 pts)

Model vs. market

CIN win probability

GameLens: 59%
Market: 64%
Difference: -5%

Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.

Matchup Lens

The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.

Matchup edges appear once both teams have played.

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% CIN win probability

CIN aboveTB below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

defenseQ1 6:18
(No Huddle) B.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for -8 yards (sack split by M.Murphy and B.Carter). FUMBLES (M.Murphy) [B.Carter], touched at TB 26, RECOVERED by CIN-D.Knight at TB 27. D.Knight for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner, Holder-R.Rehkow.
WPA +16.2%EPA -7.22
defenseQ3 2:16
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Burrow pass short right intended for A.Iosivas INTERCEPTED by J.Trotter [V.Vea] at CIN 38. J.Trotter for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.
WPA -11.7%EPA -7.51
defenseQ2 12:15
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to CIN 4 for 8 yards (B.Carter). FUMBLES (B.Carter), RECOVERED by CIN-B.Cook at CIN -3. Touchback.
WPA +10.0%EPA -10.00
touchdownQ4 3:19
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.
WPA -7.8%EPA +1.91
defenseQ1 5:38
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to B.Irving to TB 32 for 7 yards (B.Cook) [D.Lawrence]. FUMBLES (B.Cook), RECOVERED by CIN-B.Mafe at TB 33.
WPA +5.0%EPA -3.39
defenseQ4 10:41
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield sacked at TB 39 for -7 yards (B.Mafe). FUMBLES (B.Mafe) [B.Mafe], touched at TB 43, RECOVERED by CIN-T.Slaton at TB 44.
WPA +3.8%EPA -8.77

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Highlight clips post during and after the game.

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

No player prop lines posted yet.

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

deep left31/3 · 16 yds

deep middle0—

deep right0—

short left1310/13 · 98 yds

short middle43/4 · 54 yds

short right109/10 · 41 yds

Line of scrimmage

30 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Cincinnati Bengals

deep left22/2 · 40 yds

deep middle21/2 · 18 yds

deep right10/1 · 0 yds

short left138/13 · 24 yds

short middle22/2 · 36 yds

short right1512/15 · 136 yds

Line of scrimmage

35 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 69/115 (60%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00CIN27–33
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP100.0%
Q4 0:29CIN1st & 10 at TB 1627–33
J.Burrow kneels to TB 17 for -1 yards.
EPA-5.25
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 55%✓correct
Q4 1:12CIN3rd & 1 at TB 1727–33
J.Burrow left guard to TB 16 for 1 yard (A.Anzalone; J.Trotter).
EPA+0.99
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards1
PredictedRun 60%✓correct
Q4 2:00CIN2nd & 6 at TB 2227–33
(Shotgun) C.Brown right end to TB 17 for 5 yards (Z.McCollum).
EPA-0.07
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards5
PredictedRun 76%✓correct
Q4 2:00CIN2nd & 11 at TB 2727–33
PENALTY on TB-E.Roberts, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at TB 27 - No Play.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 2:00CIN2nd & 11 at TB 2727–33
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 2:08CIN1st & 10 at TB 2627–33
J.Bayer reported in as eligible. C.Brown left tackle to TB 27 for -1 yards (J.Trotter).
EPA+1.10
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 79%✓correct
Q4 2:08CIN1st & 10 at TB 2627–33
Timeout #3 by TB at 02:08.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 2:13CIN2nd & 10 at TB 4427–33
(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass deep middle to T.Higgins to TB 26 for 18 yards (Z.McCollum).
EPA+3.88
WPA (home)+5.8%
Home WP99.9%
Yards18
Air zonedeep middle
TargetT.Higgins
PredictedRun 68%×incorrect
Q4 2:13CIN2nd & 11 at TB 4527–33
Timeout #2 by TB at 02:13.
WPA (home)+1.1%
Home WP94.1%
Q4 2:17CIN1st & 10 at TB 4427–33
C.Brown up the middle to TB 44 for no gain (T.Smith).
EPA+2.40
WPA (home)-3.9%
Home WP93.0%
Yards0
PredictedRun 79%✓correct
Q4 2:17CIN1st & 10 at TB 4427–33
Timeout #1 by TB at 02:17.
WPA (home)+1.7%
Home WP96.9%
Q4 2:26CIN1st & 10 at CIN 4227–33
(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass short right to S.Perine to TB 44 for 14 yards (A.Winfield).
EPA+4.18
WPA (home)+4.6%
Home WP95.2%
Yards14
Air zoneshort right
TargetS.Perine
PredictedRun 79%×incorrect
Q4 3:14CIN1st & 10 at CIN 2427–33
(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass short right to D.Meyers to CIN 42 for 18 yards (Z.McCollum; A.Winfield).
EPA+1.30
WPA (home)+3.1%
Home WP90.6%
Yards18
Air zoneshort right
TargetD.Meyers
PredictedRun 79%×incorrect
Q4 3:19TB27–33
C.McLaughlin kicks 64 yards from TB 35 to CIN 1. T.Brooks to CIN 24 for 23 yards (J.Trotter).
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP87.6%
Q4 3:19TB & Goal at CIN 1526–33
PENALTY on TB-C.Mauch, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 15 - No Play.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP87.6%
Q4 3:19TB2nd & Goal at CIN 9Score27–33
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.
EPA+1.91
WPA (home)-7.8%
Home WP87.6%
Yards9
PredictedPass 73%×incorrect
Q4 3:31TB1st & Goal at CIN 920–33
(No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to T.Johnson.
EPA-0.69
WPA (home)+1.5%
Home WP95.5%
Yards0
Air zoneshort left
TargetT.Johnson (inc)
PredictedPass 70%✓correct
Q4 3:54TB2nd & 2 at CIN 1220–33
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short left to C.Otton to CIN 9 for 3 yards (D.Knight).
EPA+0.52
WPA (home)+2.9%
Home WP94.0%
Yards3
Air zoneshort left
TargetC.Otton
PredictedPass 61%✓correct
Q4 4:01TB1st & 10 at CIN 2020–33
(No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Mayfield scrambles left end ran ob at CIN 12 for 8 yards (D.Knight).
EPA+0.30
WPA (home)-3.2%
Home WP91.1%
Yards8
PredictedPass 70%×incorrect
Q4 4:23TB2nd & 2 at CIN 3220–33
(No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short left to T.Hurst to CIN 20 for 12 yards (J.Davis; B.Cook).
EPA+1.14
WPA (home)-0.7%
Home WP94.3%
Yards12
Air zoneshort left
TargetT.Hurst
PredictedPass 61%✓correct
Q4 4:43TB1st & 10 at CIN 4020–33
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short left to T.Hurst to CIN 32 for 8 yards (D.Hill).
EPA+0.30
WPA (home)-0.5%
Home WP95.0%
Yards8
Air zoneshort left
TargetT.Hurst
PredictedPass 70%✓correct
Q4 5:11TB1st & 15 at TB 4420–33
(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass deep left to T.Hurst pushed ob at CIN 40 for 16 yards (D.Hill).
EPA+1.29
WPA (home)-2.1%
Home WP95.5%
Yards16
Air zonedeep left
TargetT.Hurst
PredictedPass 79%✓correct
Q4 5:11TB1st & 10 at TB 4920–33
(Shotgun) PENALTY on TB-T.Wirfs, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 49 - No Play.
WPA (home)+1.4%
Home WP97.6%
Q4 5:19CIN20–33
E.McPherson kicks 63 yards from CIN 35 to TB 2. J.Williams pushed ob at TB 49 for 47 yards (E.McPherson).
WPA (home)-1.5%
Home WP96.3%
Q4 5:19CIN & Goal at CIN 3520–33
Official Timeout at 05:19.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP97.8%
Q4 5:19CIN4th & 6 at TB 13Score20–33
E.McPherson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner, Holder-R.Rehkow.
WPA (home)+0.3%
Home WP97.8%
Q4 5:23CIN4th & 2 at TB 920–30
(Run formation) PENALTY on CIN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at TB 9 - No Play.
WPA (home)+0.4%
Home WP97.5%
Q4 6:09CIN3rd & 5 at TB 1220–30
(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass short left to C.Brown to TB 9 for 3 yards (K.Scott).
EPA-0.47
WPA (home)-0.7%
Home WP97.1%
Yards3
Air zoneshort left
TargetC.Brown
PredictedPass 76%✓correct
Q4 6:50CIN2nd & 8 at TB 1520–30
(Shotgun) S.Perine right guard to TB 12 for 3 yards (A.Muhammad).
EPA-0.32
WPA (home)+0.3%
Home WP97.8%
Yards3
PredictedRun 52%✓correct

Box score

Team stats	TB	CIN
Total yards	282	351
Yards / play	5.4	5.6
Turnovers	4	1
3rd down	5-10	8-14
Red zone	2-4	2-5
Possession	28:35	31:25

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
B.Mayfield	23/28	216	0	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
B.Irving	8	45	5.6	1
B.Mayfield	5	30	6.0	1
K.Gainwell	5	15	3.0	0
C.Godwin Jr.	1	3	3.0	0
T.Johnson	1	-4	-4.0	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS
E.Egbuka	5/6	63
B.Irving	7/7	48
C.Godwin Jr.	4/4	40
T.Hurst III	3/3	36
C.Otton	3/5	26

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
J.Trotter	11	1	1
Z.McCollum	9	0	0
A.Winfield Jr.	9	0	0
A.Anzalone	7	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
J.Burrow	25/35	254	1	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
C.Brown	16	56	3.5	1
J.Burrow	5	20	4.0	0
S.Perine	5	20	4.0	0
D.Meyers	1	10	10.0	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
M.Gesicki	5/7	78	1
T.Higgins	3/6	59	0
S.Perine	3/3	30	0
C.Brown	5/6	22	0
D.Sample	3/3	19	0

Defense	TKL	SACK
B.Carter	8	0.5
J.Battle	9	0
J.Allen	3	1
D.Knight Jr.	7	0

Model breakdown

Why the model likes CIN

Model vs. market

Matchup Lens

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cincinnati Bengals