ARI @ LAC

Cardinals

1-0

Chargers

0-1

Final

Pregame model pick

LAC 74.9%

Missed · ATS win

Low

Model spread: LAC -9
Model total: 45.4
ATS pick: ARI +11.5; -2.4 pt edge
Total pick: Pass; -0.1 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

ARI spread+8.5

ARI ML+370

Over47.5

LAC spread-8.5

LAC ML-485

Under47.5

Why the model likes LAC

The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.

Market priorhelps LAC+8.6 pts · +23.6%
Opening line LAC -11.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 0 games
Home fieldhelps LAC+0.4 pts · +1.0%
LAC at home (1.7 pts)

Model vs. market

LAC win probability

GameLens: 75%
Market: 80%
Difference: -5%

Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.

Matchup Lens

The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.

Matchup edges appear once both teams have played.

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% ARI win probability

LAC aboveARI below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

clutchQ4 12:28
J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by S.Fehoko, Center-J.Harris, recovered by LAC-A.Ingold at LAC 3.
WPA -18.9%
touchdownQ3 6:03
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right to L.McConkey for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Harris, Holder-J.Scott.
WPA +11.1%EPA +2.37
big playQ3 11:27
(Shotgun) J.Brissett pass deep left to M.Harrison to ARZ 45 for 33 yards (C.Hart) [D.Phillips].
WPA -9.0%EPA +2.98
clutchQ4 11:44
(Shotgun) J.Brissett pass short left to T.McBride for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.
WPA -8.6%EPA +1.15
defenseQ2 13:37
(Shotgun) O.Hampton left end to ARZ 31 for -1 yards (A.Wingard). FUMBLES (A.Wingard), RECOVERED by ARZ-W.Johnson at ARZ 34.
WPA -7.5%EPA -9.93
defenseQ2 2:00
(Shotgun) J.Herbert sacked at ARZ 13 for -10 yards (D.Stills).
WPA -5.9%EPA -10.00

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Highlight clips post during and after the game.

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

No player prop lines posted yet.

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Arizona Cardinals

deep left31/3 · 33 yds

deep middle0—

deep right32/3 · 44 yds

short left87/8 · 65 yds

short middle95/9 · 45 yds

short right1712/17 · 91 yds

Line of scrimmage

40 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Los Angeles Chargers

deep left10/1 · 0 yds

deep middle22/2 · 41 yds

deep right40/4 · 0 yds

short left95/9 · 52 yds

short middle54/5 · 49 yds

short right106/10 · 67 yds

Line of scrimmage

31 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 82/123 (67%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00ARI26–14
END GAME
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.0%
Q4 0:34ARI3rd & 12 at LAC 4626–14
J.Brissett kneels to LAC 47 for -1 yards.
EPA-1.56
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards-1
PredictedPass 52%×incorrect
Q4 1:11ARI2nd & 11 at LAC 4526–14
J.Brissett kneels to LAC 46 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.83
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 76%✓correct
Q4 1:52ARI1st & 10 at LAC 4426–14
J.Brissett kneels to LAC 45 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.84
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP0.1%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 85%✓correct
Q4 2:00LAC4th & 7 at LAC 3826–14
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short left to O.Gadsden to LAC 44 for 6 yards (W.Johnson; Ma.Wilson).
EPA-3.07
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.1%
Yards6
Air zoneshort left
TargetO.Gadsden
PredictedPass 95%✓correct
Q4 2:00LAC4th & 7 at LAC 3826–14
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.2%
Q4 2:04LAC3rd & 18 at LAC 2726–14
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short middle to T.Harris to LAC 38 for 11 yards (B.Baker).
EPA+5.01
WPA (home)+0.2%
Home WP0.3%
Yards11
Air zoneshort middle
TargetT.Harris
PredictedPass 93%✓correct
Q4 2:07LAC2nd & 18 at LAC 2726–14
(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to Q.Johnston.
EPA-0.70
WPA (home)-0.3%
Home WP0.1%
Yards0
Air zoneshort right
TargetQ.Johnston (inc)
PredictedPass 80%✓correct
Q4 2:33LAC1st & 10 at LAC 3526–14
(Shotgun) J.Herbert sacked at LAC 27 for -8 yards (sack split by B.Baker and J.Gibbens).
EPA-1.73
WPA (home)-0.7%
Home WP0.4%
PredictedPass 69%✓correct
Q4 2:33ARI26–14
C.Ryland kicks 65 yards from ARZ 35 to end zone, Touchback to the LAC 35.
WPA (home)+0.5%
Home WP1.1%
Q4 2:33ARI4th & 2 at LAC 30Score26–14
C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.
WPA (home)-2.1%
Home WP0.6%
Q4 3:21ARI3rd & 5 at LAC 3323–14
T.Allgeier up the middle to LAC 30 for 3 yards (J.Eboigbe).
EPA+0.12
WPA (home)+0.4%
Home WP2.8%
Yards3
PredictedPass 58%×incorrect
Q4 4:06ARI2nd & 8 at LAC 3623–14
T.Allgeier up the middle to LAC 33 for 3 yards (T.Still; D.Tomlinson).
EPA-0.32
WPA (home)+0.2%
Home WP2.4%
Yards3
PredictedRun 72%✓correct
Q4 4:06ARI2nd & 8 at LAC 3623–14
Timeout #3 by LAC at 04:06.
WPA (home)-0.3%
Home WP2.2%
Q4 4:09ARI1st & 10 at LAC 3823–14
T.Allgeier up the middle to LAC 36 for 2 yards (D.Phillips; K.Mack).
EPA+2.13
WPA (home)+1.5%
Home WP2.5%
Yards2
PredictedRun 82%✓correct
Q4 4:17LAC4th & 18 at LAC 2323–14
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right to D.Njoku to LAC 38 for 15 yards (W.Johnson; A.Wingard).Penalty on LAC-D.Njoku, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
EPA-1.82
WPA (home)-0.1%
Home WP0.9%
Yards15
Air zoneshort right
TargetD.Njoku
PredictedPass 94%✓correct
Q4 4:24LAC3rd & 30 at LAC 1123–14
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right to D.Njoku pushed ob at LAC 23 for 12 yards (D.Burke).
EPA+0.65
WPA (home)+0.2%
Home WP1.0%
Yards12
Air zoneshort right
TargetD.Njoku
PredictedPass 92%✓correct
Q4 4:24LAC3rd & 30 at LAC 1123–14
Timeout #2 by LAC at 04:24.
WPA (home)-0.6%
Home WP0.8%
Q4 4:28LAC2nd & 30 at LAC 1123–14
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to T.Harris (K.Clark).
EPA+5.71
WPA (home)-0.5%
Home WP1.4%
Yards0
Air zonedeep right
TargetT.Harris (inc)
PredictedPass 76%✓correct
Q4 4:33LAC2nd & 20 at LAC 2123–14
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short left to K.Mitchell to LAC 25 for 4 yards (Ma.Wilson).PENALTY on LAC-J.Slaughter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 21 - No Play.
WPA (home)-0.6%
Home WP1.9%
Air zoneshort left
TargetK.Mitchell
Q4 4:33LAC2nd & 15 at LAC 2623–14
(Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-Q.Johnston, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 26 - No Play.
WPA (home)-1.3%
Home WP2.5%
Q4 4:33LAC2nd & 10 at LAC 3123–14
(Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-J.Slaughter, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 31 - No Play.
WPA (home)-2.1%
Home WP3.8%
Q4 4:36LAC1st & 10 at LAC 3123–14
(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to Q.Johnston (D.Stills).
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)-2.6%
Home WP5.9%
Yards0
Air zoneshort left
TargetQ.Johnston (inc)
PredictedPass 64%✓correct
Q4 4:44LAC1st & 10 at LAC 2023–14
(Shotgun) J.Herbert scrambles left end pushed ob at LAC 31 for 11 yards (J.Gibbens).
EPA+0.79
WPA (home)+2.1%
Home WP8.5%
Yards11
PredictedPass 64%×incorrect
Q4 4:51ARI4th & 2 at ARI 3923–14
B.Gillikin punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
WPA (home)-1.5%
Home WP6.4%
Q4 4:57ARI3rd & 2 at ARI 3923–14
J.Williams reported in as eligible. J.Brissett sacked at ARZ 39 for 0 yards (sack split by T.Dye and D.Henley).
EPA-1.67
WPA (home)+2.5%
Home WP7.9%
PredictedRun 84%×incorrect
Q4 5:39ARI2nd & 6 at ARI 3523–14
J.Love up the middle to ARZ 39 for 4 yards (G.Smith).
EPA-0.19
WPA (home)-1.7%
Home WP5.4%
Yards4
PredictedRun 60%✓correct
Q4 6:20ARI1st & 10 at ARI 3123–14
T.Allgeier up the middle to ARZ 35 for 4 yards (J.Caldwell).
EPA-0.21
WPA (home)-0.4%
Home WP7.2%
Yards4
PredictedRun 64%✓correct
Q4 7:03ARI2nd & 3 at ARI 2423–14
T.Allgeier right guard to ARZ 31 for 7 yards (T.Dye).
EPA+0.83
WPA (home)-2.9%
Home WP7.5%
Yards7
PredictedRun 73%✓correct
Q4 7:47ARI1st & 10 at ARI 1723–14
T.Allgeier left end to ARZ 24 for 7 yards (G.Smith).
EPA+0.17
WPA (home)-2.9%
Home WP10.5%
Yards7
PredictedRun 64%✓correct

Box score

Team stats	ARI	LAC
Total yards	393	268
Yards / play	5.5	5.3
Turnovers	0	2
3rd down	6-14	2-8
Red zone	2-5	2-3
Possession	37:31	22:29

Arizona Cardinals

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
J.Brissett	27/37	277	1	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
T.Allgeier	17	61	3.6	0
J.Love	11	41	3.7	1
J.Brissett	6	14	2.3	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
T.McBride	9/13	95	1
K.Bourne	8/8	75	0
M.Wilson	5/7	56	0
M.Harrison Jr.	1/3	33	0
T.Allgeier	2/2	9	0

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
A.Wingard	4	0	1
J.Gibbens	7	0.5	0
J.Burch	3	1	0
B.Baker	5	0.5	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
J.Herbert	17/27	209	1	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
O.Hampton	12	43	3.6	1
J.Herbert	5	29	5.8	0
K.Mitchell	4	9	2.3	0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
L.McConkey	5/7	82	1
D.Njoku	5/5	58	0
O.Gadsden	2/2	32	0
T.Harris	3/6	20	0
Q.Johnston	2/6	17	0

Defense	TKL	SACK
D.Henley	8	0.5
D.James Jr.	10	0
T.Dye	5	0.5
C.Hart	6	0

Model breakdown

Why the model likes LAC

Model vs. market

Matchup Lens

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Los Angeles Chargers