Cowboys
0-1
20
Giants
1-0
28
Final
Pregame model pick
DAL 54.3%
Missed · ATS win
- Model spread
- NYG +1.5
- Model total
- 47.6
- ATS pick
- NYG +2.5
- +1.1 pt edge
- Total pick
- Pass
- -0.9 pt edge
Model breakdown
Why the model likes DAL
The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.
- Market priorhelps DAL+1.9 pts · +5.5%
Opening line DAL -2.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 0 games
- Home fieldhurts DAL-0.4 pts · -1.2%
NYG at home (1.7 pts)
Model vs. market
DAL win probability
- GameLens
- 54%
- Market
- 60%
- Difference
- -6%
Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.
Matchup Lens
The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.
Matchup edges appear once both teams have played.
Live win probability
Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.
Win probability
100.0% NYG win probability
Key moments
Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.
Key moments
- touchdownQ2 0:20
(Shotgun) J.Dart pass short right to I.Likely for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-B.Mann, Holder-J.Stout.
WPA +11.7%EPA +2.12 - big playQ1 9:38
(Shotgun) J.Dart left end ran ob at DAL 37 for 22 yards (D.Overshown).PENALTY on DAL-D.Overshown, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 37.
WPA +8.5%EPA +3.38 - defenseQ2 2:00
(Shotgun) T.Tracy left end to DAL 21 for 8 yards (Q.Williams). FUMBLES (Q.Williams), RECOVERED by DAL-S.Revel at DAL 19. S.Revel to DAL 16 for -3 yards (A.Thomas).
WPA -8.1%EPA -9.94 - defenseQ2 0:58
(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass deep right INTERCEPTED by J.Holland at NYG 45. J.Holland ran ob at NYG 45 for no gain.
WPA +5.8%EPA -7.05 - touchdownQ4 5:21
(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short left to J.Williams for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: NYG-G.Newsome has returned to the game. PENALTY on DAL-J.Williams, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. B.Aubrey extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-T.Sieg, Holder-B.Anger.
WPA -5.4%EPA +1.82 - touchdownQ2 5:44
(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short left to C.Lamb for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Sieg, Holder-B.Anger.
WPA -4.3%EPA +1.59
Highlights
Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.
Highlights
Highlight clips post during and after the game.
Player props
Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.
Player props
Passing target maps
Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.
Target maps
35 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
29 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
Play-by-play
EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.
Play-by-play
Play-call model: 85/120 (71%) run/pass correct
- Q4 0:00NYG20–28
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP100.0% - Q4 0:34NYG3rd & 14 at DAL 2420–28
J.Dart kneels to DAL 25 for -1 yards.
EPA-3.04WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-1PredictedPass 81%×incorrect - Q4 1:10NYG2nd & 12 at DAL 2220–28
J.Dart kneels to DAL 24 for -2 yards.
EPA-0.95WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-2PredictedPass 56%×incorrect - Q4 1:52NYG1st & 10 at DAL 2020–28
J.Dart kneels to DAL 22 for -2 yards.
EPA-0.97WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-2PredictedRun 59%✓correct - Q4 1:52NYG1st & 10 at DAL 2020–28
Timeout #3 by DAL at 01:52.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 1:58NYG2nd & 7 at DAL 2820–28
C.Skattebo left end to DAL 20 for 8 yards (J.Thompson; J.Houston).
EPA+2.57WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP99.9%Yards8PredictedPass 56%×incorrect - Q4 1:58NYG2nd & 7 at DAL 2820–28
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP99.8% - Q4 2:03NYG1st & 10 at DAL 3120–28
C.Skattebo left tackle to DAL 28 for 3 yards (D.Bland; M.Lawrence).
EPA+1.68WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP99.8%Yards3PredictedRun 81%✓correct - Q4 2:10NYG1st & 10 at DAL 4720–28
A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. J.Dart right end to DAL 46 for 1 yard (D.Ezeiruaku; C.Downs).PENALTY on DAL-D.Ezeiruaku, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 46.
EPA+1.15WPA (home)+0.4%Home WP99.9%Yards1PredictedRun 81%✓correct - Q4 2:10NYG1st & 10 at DAL 4720–28
Timeout #2 by DAL at 02:10.
WPA (home)+0.6%Home WP99.5% - Q4 2:16NYG3rd & 3 at NYG 4820–28
(Shotgun) J.Dart pass short middle to I.Likely to DAL 47 for 5 yards (C.Downs).
EPA+4.77WPA (home)+2.7%Home WP98.9%Yards5Air zoneshort middleTargetI.LikelyPredictedRun 62%×incorrect - Q4 3:01NYG2nd & 16 at NYG 3520–28
(Shotgun) C.Skattebo left guard to NYG 48 for 13 yards (M.Lawrence).
EPA+0.95WPA (home)+2.6%Home WP96.2%Yards13PredictedRun 70%✓correct - Q4 3:01NYG2nd & 11 at NYG 4020–28
(Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-J.Eluemunor, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 40 - No Play.
WPA (home)-0.8%Home WP93.6% - Q4 3:45NYG1st & 10 at NYG 4120–28
C.Skattebo right end to NYG 40 for -1 yards (D.Ezeiruaku).
EPA-0.84WPA (home)-1.4%Home WP94.3%Yards-1PredictedRun 81%✓correct - Q4 4:30NYG3rd & 9 at NYG 2920–28
(Shotgun) J.Dart pass short left to I.Likely to NYG 41 for 12 yards (P.Locke).
EPA+2.22WPA (home)+4.9%Home WP95.7%Yards12Air zoneshort leftTargetI.LikelyPredictedPass 60%✓correct - Q4 4:34NYG2nd & 9 at NYG 2920–28
(Shotgun) J.Dart pass incomplete deep left to M.Nabers.
EPA-0.70WPA (home)-0.4%Home WP90.8%Yards0Air zonedeep leftTargetM.Nabers (inc)PredictedRun 70%×incorrect - Q4 5:16NYG1st & 10 at NYG 2820–28
(Shotgun) C.Skattebo up the middle to NYG 29 for 1 yard (R.Gary).
EPA-0.59WPA (home)-2.2%Home WP91.2%Yards1PredictedRun 63%✓correct - Q4 5:21DAL20–28
B.Aubrey kicks 65 yards from DAL 35 to NYG 0. B.Berrios to NYG 28 for 28 yards (A.Clark).
WPA (home)+0.8%Home WP93.3% - Q4 5:21DAL & Goal at NYG 3020–28
Official Timeout at 05:21.
WPA (home)+3.2%Home WP92.6% - Q4 5:21DAL1st & 10 at NYG 17Score20–28
(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short left to J.Williams for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: NYG-G.Newsome has returned to the game. PENALTY on DAL-J.Williams, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. B.Aubrey extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-T.Sieg, Holder-B.Anger.
EPA+1.82WPA (home)-5.4%Home WP89.3%Yards17Air zoneshort leftTargetJ.WilliamsPredictedPass 63%✓correct - Q4 5:42DAL3rd & 10 at NYG 4914–28
(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short left to R.Flournoy pushed ob at NYG 32 for 17 yards (J.Holland).PENALTY on NYG-J.Holland, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 32.
EPA+3.72WPA (home)-3.5%Home WP94.7%Yards17Air zoneshort leftTargetR.FlournoyPredictedPass 94%✓correct - Q4 5:47DAL2nd & 10 at NYG 4914–28
(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to C.Lamb.
EPA-0.70WPA (home)+0.6%Home WP98.2%Yards0Air zonedeep rightTargetC.Lamb (inc)PredictedPass 82%✓correct - Q4 5:53DAL1st & 10 at NYG 4914–28
(No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to G.Pickens.
EPA-0.71WPA (home)+1.1%Home WP97.7%Yards0Air zonedeep leftTargetG.Pickens (inc)PredictedPass 71%✓correct - Q4 6:19DAL2nd & 6 at DAL 4114–28
(No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short right to J.Mingo pushed ob at NYG 49 for 10 yards (P.Adebo).
EPA+1.21WPA (home)-0.7%Home WP96.6%Yards10Air zoneshort rightTargetJ.MingoPredictedPass 74%✓correct - Q4 6:41DAL1st & 10 at DAL 3714–28
(No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short middle to J.Williams to DAL 41 for 4 yards (T.Edmunds).
EPA-0.21WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP97.3%Yards4Air zoneshort middleTargetJ.WilliamsPredictedPass 71%✓correct - Q4 6:57DAL3rd & 5 at DAL 3114–28
(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short right to C.Lamb pushed ob at DAL 37 for 6 yards (D.Banks).
EPA+1.57WPA (home)-0.7%Home WP97.2%Yards6Air zoneshort rightTargetC.LambPredictedPass 94%✓correct - Q4 7:06DAL3rd & 5 at DAL 3114–28
Official Timeout at 07:06.
WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP97.9% - Q4 7:15DAL2nd & 10 at DAL 2614–28
(No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short right to J.Williams pushed ob at DAL 31 for 5 yards (G.Newsome). NYG-G.Newsome was injured during the play.
EPA+4.90WPA (home)-0.2%Home WP97.8%Yards5Air zoneshort rightTargetJ.WilliamsPredictedPass 81%✓correct - Q4 7:21DAL1st & 10 at DAL 2614–28
(Shotgun) D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to C.Lamb (D.Banks).
EPA-0.72WPA (home)+0.5%Home WP98.0%Yards0Air zoneshort leftTargetC.Lamb (inc)PredictedPass 71%✓correct - Q4 7:26NYG14–28
D.Zvada kicks 64 yards from NYG 35 to DAL 1. K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 26 for 25 yards (P.Adebo).
WPA (home)-1.0%Home WP97.5%
Box score
Box score
| Team stats | DAL | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 244 | 394 |
| Yards / play | 4.7 | 5.8 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| 3rd down | 8-11 | 9-11 |
| Red zone | 3-3 | 4-4 |
| Possession | 23:20 | 36:40 |
Dallas Cowboys
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 D.Prescott | 22/34 | 175 | 2 | 1 |
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 J.Williams | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 1 |
| D.Prescott | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
 H.Luepke | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
 E.Demercado | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
 C.Lamb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| C.Lamb | 5/8 | 44 | 1 |
| J.Williams | 5/5 | 31 | 1 |
 G.Pickens | 3/6 | 28 | 0 |
 R.Flournoy | 2/4 | 22 | 0 |
 B.Spann-Ford | 2/2 | 14 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 C.Downs | 8 | 1 | 0 |
 D.Ezeiruaku | 10 | 0.5 | 0 |
 J.Thompson | 9 | 0 | 0 |
 D.Bland | 8 | 0 | 0 |
New York Giants
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 J.Dart | 23/29 | 230 | 3 | 0 |
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 C.Skattebo | 18 | 81 | 4.5 | 1 |
| J.Dart | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 |
 D.Singletary | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
 T.Tracy Jr. | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 I.Likely | 8/8 | 78 | 2 |
 M.Nabers | 6/9 | 69 | 0 |
 D.Mooney | 2/2 | 27 | 0 |
 M.Fields | 2/4 | 25 | 0 |
| D.Singletary | 4/4 | 22 | 1 |
