Broncos
0-1
10
Chiefs
1-0
31
Final
Final · Game report
Kansas City Chiefs rout DEN, 31-10
Kansas City Chiefs controlled this one from start to finish and won by 21.
Play for play, KC had the more efficient offense: -0.05 EPA per play for KC versus -0.27 for DEN.
GameLens had KC at 57% before kickoff, and the pick came in.
Play of the game · Q3 12:43 · 15% win-prob swing
J.Ezeudu, J.Moore and K.Tonga reported in as eligible. K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.
How it was won
- Turnover battle: KC won it 2-1, and that margin mattered in a 21-point game.
- Third downs: KC converted 9-17, which kept drives alive and the other offense off the field.
- KC won on the ground, averaging 0.34 EPA per run compared with -0.25 per dropback.
| DEN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| -0.27 | EPA / play | -0.05 |
| 35% | Success rate | 43% |
| 176 | Total yards | 392 |
| 3.7 | Yards / play | 5.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-12 | 3rd down | 9-17 |
| 1-2 | Red zone | 3-5 |
| 26:18 | Possession | 33:42 |
Pregame model pick
KC 56.8%
Correct
- Model spread
- KC -2.5
- Model total
- 43.1
- ATS pick
- Pass
- -0.2 pt edge
- Total pick
- Pass
- +0.6 pt edge
Model breakdown
Why the model likes KC
The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.
- Market priorhelps KC+1.9 pts · +5.5%
Opening line KC -2.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 0 games
- Home fieldhelps KC+0.4 pts · +1.2%
KC at home (1.7 pts)
Model vs. market
KC win probability
- GameLens
- 57%
- Market
- 54%
- Difference
- +2%
Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.
Matchup Lens
The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.
Matchup edges appear once both teams have played.
Momentum tracker
0–100 score for who controls the game right now, weighted toward the most recent plays by EPA.
Final momentum
44/100DEN · Surging
Recent swing plays
- -51Q4 0:40P.Mahomes kneels to DEN 18 for -1 yards.
- +29Q4 3:02E.Johnson left guard to DEN 18 for 3 yards (D.Tillman).
- +23Q4 2:20E.Johnson up the middle to DEN 14 for 4 yards (B.Jones; Q.Robinson).
Positive values push momentum toward KC.
Live win probability
Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.
Win probability
100.0% KC win probability
Key moments
Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.
Key moments
- touchdownQ3 12:43
J.Ezeudu, J.Moore and K.Tonga reported in as eligible. K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.
WPA +14.8%EPA +6.69 - touchdownQ1 8:11
(Shotgun) P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.
WPA +8.2%EPA +2.67 - defenseQ3 9:47
P.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for X.Worthy INTERCEPTED by B.Jones at KC 29. B.Jones to KC 5 for 24 yards (J.Moore).
WPA -7.7%EPA -5.59 - big playQ3 6:09
(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass short left to T.Kelce to DEN 4 for 59 yards (J.Barron).
WPA +6.3%EPA +5.61 - touchdownQ2 1:39
(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass short right to R.Rice for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.
WPA +6.2%EPA +1.54 - touchdownQ1 3:48
(Shotgun) B.Nix pass deep left to E.Engram for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.
WPA -5.7%EPA +1.97
Highlights
Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.
Highlights
Highlight clips post during and after the game.
Player props
Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.
Player props
Passing target maps
Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.
Target maps
29 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
25 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
Play-by-play
EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.
Play-by-play
Play-call model: 73/113 (65%) run/pass correct
- Q4 0:00DEN10–31
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP100.0% - Q4 0:36DEN1st & 10 at DEN 1910–31
B.Nix kneels to DEN 18 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.57WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-1PredictedPass 93%×incorrect - Q4 0:40KC4th & 9 at DEN 1710–31
P.Mahomes kneels to DEN 18 for -1 yards.
EPA-3.53WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-1PredictedRun 54%✓correct - Q4 1:19KC3rd & 7 at DEN 1510–31
P.Mahomes kneels to DEN 17 for -2 yards.
EPA-1.10WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-2PredictedRun 63%✓correct - Q4 2:00KC2nd & 6 at DEN 1410–31
P.Mahomes kneels to DEN 15 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.83WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-1PredictedRun 90%✓correct - Q4 2:00KC1st & 10 at DEN 1810–31
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 2:20KC1st & 10 at DEN 1810–31
E.Johnson up the middle to DEN 14 for 4 yards (B.Jones; Q.Robinson).
EPA+1.30WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards4PredictedRun 91%✓correct - Q4 3:02KC3rd & 3 at DEN 2110–31
E.Johnson left guard to DEN 18 for 3 yards (D.Tillman).
EPA+1.25WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards3PredictedRun 80%✓correct - Q4 3:45KC2nd & 4 at DEN 2210–31
E.Johnson left guard to DEN 21 for 1 yard (D.Tillman).
EPA-0.57WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards1PredictedRun 89%✓correct - Q4 4:32KC1st & 10 at DEN 2810–31
E.Johnson up the middle to DEN 22 for 6 yards (P.Surtain; A.Singleton).
EPA+0.05WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards6PredictedRun 91%✓correct - Q4 4:41DEN4th & 8 at DEN 2910–31
(Shotgun) B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to T.Franklin (N.Williams) [G.Karlaftis].
EPA-3.52WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards0Air zonedeep leftTargetT.Franklin (inc)PredictedPass 97%✓correct - Q4 4:41DEN4th & 8 at DEN 2910–31
Timeout #1 by KC at 04:41.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 5:13DEN3rd & 15 at DEN 2210–31
(Shotgun) B.Nix pass short right to R.Harvey pushed ob at DEN 29 for 7 yards (L.Sneed).
EPA+5.15WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards7Air zoneshort rightTargetR.HarveyPredictedPass 96%✓correct - Q4 5:18DEN2nd & 15 at DEN 2210–31
(Shotgun) B.Nix sacked at DEN 12 for -10 yards (N.Bolton). FUMBLES (N.Bolton), RECOVERED by KC-N.Bolton at DEN 12. N.Bolton to DEN 12 for no gain (R.Harvey).The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to E.Engram (N.Bolton) [G.Karlaftis].
EPA-0.70WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Air zoneshort middleTargetE.EngramPredictedPass 88%✓correct - Q4 5:55DEN1st & 10 at DEN 2710–31
(No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Nix FUMBLES (Aborted) at DEN 22, and recovers at DEN 22.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 6:27DEN2nd & 5 at DEN 2110–31
(No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Nix pass short left to E.Engram to DEN 27 for 6 yards (L.Sneed).
EPA+0.87WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards6Air zoneshort leftTargetE.EngramPredictedPass 82%✓correct - Q4 6:54DEN1st & 10 at DEN 1610–31
(Shotgun) R.Harvey up the middle to DEN 21 for 5 yards (N.Bolton; J.Hicks).
EPA-0.08WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards5PredictedPass 79%×incorrect - Q4 6:54DEN1st & 10 at DEN 1610–31
Official Timeout at 06:54.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 7:08KC4th & 12 at KC 3210–31
M.Araiza punts 59 yards to DEN 9, Center-J.Winchester. M.Mims ran ob at DEN 31 for 22 yards (B.VanSumeren).PENALTY on DEN-T.Anderson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 26.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 7:52KC3rd & 4 at KC 4010–31
(Shotgun) P.Mahomes sacked at KC 32 for -8 yards (Z.Allen).
EPA-7.40WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%PredictedRun 59%×incorrect - Q4 8:35KC2nd & 6 at KC 3810–31
E.Johnson up the middle to KC 40 for 2 yards (J.Elliss; B.Jones).
EPA-0.45WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards2PredictedRun 76%✓correct - Q4 9:24KC1st & 25 at KC 1910–31
(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass short middle to E.Johnson to KC 38 for 19 yards (E.Uwazurike).
EPA+1.29WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP99.9%Yards19Air zoneshort middleTargetE.JohnsonPredictedRun 69%×incorrect - Q4 9:50KC1st & 10 at KC 3410–31
E.Johnson left end to KC 34 for no gain (A.Singleton).PENALTY on KC-T.Smith, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at KC 34 - No Play.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.8% - Q4 10:33KC3rd & 2 at KC 2810–31
(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass short middle to T.Kelce to KC 34 for 6 yards (A.Singleton).
EPA+1.41WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP99.8%Yards6Air zoneshort middleTargetT.KelcePredictedRun 81%×incorrect - Q4 11:18KC2nd & 10 at KC 2010–31
K.Walker left tackle to KC 28 for 8 yards (T.Hufanga; A.Singleton).
EPA+0.32WPA (home)+0.2%Home WP99.7%Yards8PredictedRun 67%✓correct - Q4 11:59KC1st & 10 at KC 2010–31
K.Walker up the middle to KC 20 for no gain (Q.Robinson).
EPA-0.72WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP99.5%Yards0PredictedRun 78%✓correct - Q4 12:43KC2nd & 9 at KC 710–31
K.Walker left tackle to KC 20 for 13 yards (R.Moss; A.Singleton).
EPA+1.60WPA (home)+0.4%Home WP99.6%Yards13PredictedRun 66%✓correct - Q4 13:25KC1st & 10 at KC 610–31
K.Walker up the middle to KC 7 for 1 yard (J.Turner).
EPA-0.59WPA (home)-0.2%Home WP99.2%Yards1PredictedRun 77%✓correct - Q4 13:25KC1st & 10 at KC 610–31
Official Timeout at 13:25.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.4% - Q4 13:38DEN4th & 5 at DEN 3210–31
J.Crawshaw punts 56 yards to KC 12, Center-M.Fraboni. N.Remigio to KC 27 for 15 yards (M.Fraboni; J.Skinner).PENALTY on KC-C.Allen, Unnecessary Roughness, 6 yards, enforced at KC 12.
WPA (home)-0.2%Home WP99.4%
Box score
Box score
| Team stats | DEN | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 176 | 392 |
| Yards / play | 3.7 | 5.9 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| 3rd down | 2-12 | 9-17 |
| Red zone | 1-2 | 3-5 |
| Possession | 26:18 | 33:42 |
Denver Broncos
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 B.Nix | 17/28 | 131 | 1 | 1 |
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 J.Dobbins | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
 R.Harvey | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
 T.Franklin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| B.Nix | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 E.Engram | 4/5 | 43 | 1 |
 P.Bryant | 4/6 | 42 | 0 |
| R.Harvey | 4/4 | 23 | 0 |
 C.Sutton | 2/5 | 11 | 0 |
 A.Trautman | 2/3 | 10 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 A.Singleton | 16 | 0 | 0 |
 Z.Allen | 5 | 2 | 0 |
 B.Jones | 5 | 0 | 1 |
 D.Tillman | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Kansas City Chiefs
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 P.Mahomes | 15/27 | 184 | 2 | 1 |
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 K.Walker III | 23 | 173 | 7.5 | 1 |
 E.Johnson | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| P.Mahomes | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 T.Kelce | 3/5 | 71 | 0 |
| E.Johnson | 2/2 | 44 | 0 |
 R.Rice | 2/2 | 19 | 1 |
| K.Walker III | 3/6 | 18 | 1 |
 X.Worthy | 3/6 | 18 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 L.Sneed | 8 | 0 | 0 |
 N.Williams | 3 | 1 | 0 |
 D.Tranquill | 7 | 0 | 0 |
 R.Thomas | 2 | 1 | 0 |