Model accountability
Closing-line value
Every model bet is logged at the opening number and compared to the closing line. Consistently beating the close is the strongest signal of a real edge — more reliable than win rate over small samples.
Avg CLV
+1.26 pts
Beat the close
53.5%
43 bets tracked
Record
19-24
44.2%
Cumulative CLV
+54.0 pts
Cumulative CLV by week
Bet log
| Wk | Game | Pick | Open | Close | CLV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | LAC @ BUF | BUF -2.5 | -2.5 | -7 | +4.5 | win |
| 3 | CAR @ CLE | CAR -1.5 | -1.5 | -2.5 | +1.0 | loss |
| 3 | CAR @ CLE | Over 39.5 | 39.5 | 41.5 | +2.0 | loss |
| 3 | NYJ @ DET | NYJ +9.5 | +9.5 | +7 | +2.5 | win |
| 3 | NYJ @ DET | Over 44.5 | 44.5 | 49.5 | +5.0 | win |
| 3 | HOU @ IND | IND +1.5 | +1.5 | +1.5 | 0.0 | win |
| 3 | HOU @ IND | Over 45.5 | 45.5 | 42.5 | -3.0 | loss |
| 3 | KC @ MIA | KC -7 | -7 | -10 | +3.0 | win |
| 3 | TEN @ NYG | Under 45.5 | 45.5 | 37.5 | +8.0 | win |
| 3 | CIN @ PIT | CIN -1.5 | -1.5 | -3.5 | +2.0 | loss |
| 3 | CIN @ PIT | Under 47.5 | 47.5 | 42.5 | +5.0 | loss |
| 3 | SEA @ WSH | SEA -3.5 | -3.5 | -8.5 | +5.0 | loss |
| 3 | SEA @ WSH | Under 46.5 | 46.5 | 40.5 | +6.0 | loss |
| 3 | NE @ JAX | Under 45.5 | 45.5 | 46.5 | -1.0 | win |
| 3 | ARI @ SF | SF -11.5 | -11.5 | -7.5 | -4.0 | loss |
| 3 | ARI @ SF | Under 46.5 | 46.5 | 48.5 | -2.0 | loss |
| 3 | MIN @ TB | MIN +1.5 | +1.5 | +1.5 | 0.0 | win |
| 3 | LV @ NO | LV +3 | +3 | +3.5 | -0.5 | win |
| 3 | LAR @ DEN | Under 45.5 | 45.5 | 44.5 | +1.0 | loss |
| 2 | CAR @ ATL | Over 43.5 | 43.5 | 43.5 | 0.0 | loss |
| 2 | MIN @ CHI | Over 45.5 | 45.5 | 46.5 | +1.0 | loss |
| 2 | PIT @ NE | PIT +4.5 | +4.5 | +4.5 | 0.0 | loss |
| 2 | PIT @ NE | Under 43.5 | 43.5 | 41.5 | +2.0 | win |
| 2 | GB @ NYJ | NYJ +6.5 | +6.5 | +3.5 | +3.0 | win |
| 2 | CLE @ TB | Over 42.5 | 42.5 | 41.5 | -1.0 | loss |
| 2 | NO @ BAL | Over 46.5 | 46.5 | 45.5 | -1.0 | loss |
| 2 | CIN @ HOU | CIN +2.5 | +2.5 | +3 | -0.5 | win |
| 2 | CIN @ HOU | Over 46.5 | 46.5 | 45.5 | -1.0 | loss |
| 2 | JAX @ DEN | JAX +2.5 | +2.5 | +2.5 | 0.0 | loss |
| 2 | LV @ LAC | LV +8.5 | +8.5 | +6.5 | +2.0 | win |
| 2 | WSH @ DAL | WSH +4.5 | +4.5 | +4.5 | 0.0 | loss |
| 2 | SEA @ ARI | ARI +10 | +10 | +3.5 | +6.5 | loss |
| 2 | SEA @ ARI | Under 44.5 | 44.5 | 40.5 | +4.0 | win |
| 2 | MIA @ SF | SF -10.5 | -10.5 | -12.5 | +2.0 | win |
| 2 | IND @ KC | KC -5.5 | -5.5 | -6 | +0.5 | loss |
| 2 | NYG @ LAR | NYG +8.5 | +8.5 | +7 | +1.5 | loss |
| 1 | NO @ DET | NO +7 | +7 | +7 | 0.0 | win |
| 1 | BAL @ IND | IND +3.5 | +3.5 | +3 | +0.5 | loss |
| 1 | CHI @ CAR | CAR +2.5 | +2.5 | +3 | -0.5 | loss |
| 1 | CLE @ JAX | CLE +7 | +7 | +8.5 | -1.5 | loss |
| 1 | WSH @ PHI | WSH +5.5 | +5.5 | +6 | -0.5 | win |
| 1 | ARI @ LAC | ARI +11.5 | +11.5 | +8.5 | +3.0 | win |
| 1 | DAL @ NYG | NYG +2.5 | +2.5 | +3 | -0.5 | win |