gameLens

Patriots

0-1

10

Seahawks

1-0

13

Final

Pregame model pick

SEA 58.9%

Correct

Low
Model spread
SEA -3
Model total
44.6
ATS pick
Pass
-0.5 pt edge
Total pick
Pass
+0.1 pt edge
Market · DraftKings
NE spread+3
NE ML+142
Over44.5
SEA spread-3
SEA ML-170
Under44.5

Model breakdown

Why the model likes SEA

The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.

  • Market priorhelps SEA+2.6 pts · +7.7%

    Opening line SEA -3.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 0 games

  • Home fieldhelps SEA+0.4 pts · +1.2%

    SEA at home (1.7 pts)

Model vs. market

SEA win probability

GameLens
59%
Market
60%
Difference
-1%

Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.

Matchup Lens

The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.

Matchup edges appear once both teams have played.

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

Win probability

100.0% SEA win probability

SEA aboveNE below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

Key moments

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Highlights

Highlight clips post during and after the game.

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player props

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Target maps

New England Patriots
deep left20/2 · 0 yds6% of targets
deep middle21/2 · 19 yds6% of targets
deep right30/3 · 0 yds9% of targets
short left1411/14 · 88 yds44% of targets
short middle22/2 · 9 yds6% of targets
short right99/9 · 62 yds28% of targets
Line of scrimmage

32 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Seattle Seahawks
deep left10/1 · 0 yds4% of targets
deep middle11/1 · 21 yds4% of targets
deep right11/1 · 24 yds4% of targets
short left85/8 · 69 yds32% of targets
short middle43/4 · 30 yds16% of targets
short right107/10 · 56 yds40% of targets
Line of scrimmage

25 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-by-play

Play-call model: 72/115 (63%) run/pass correct

  1. Q4 0:00SEA10–13

    END GAME

    WPA (home)+0.1%
    Home WP100.0%
  2. Q4 0:21SEA1st & 10 at SEA 2010–13

    D.Lock kneels to SEA 19 for -1 yards.

    EPA-0.64
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP99.9%
    Yards-1
    PredictedRun 50%✓correct
  3. Q4 0:26NE3rd & 5 at SEA 16Turnover10–13

    (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by J.Jobe [D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback.

    EPA-4.75
    WPA (home)+48.4%
    Home WP99.9%
    Yards0
    Air zonedeep right
    TargetM.Hollins (inc)
    PredictedPass 96%✓correct
  4. Q4 0:32NE2nd & 17 at SEA 2810–13

    (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to M.Hollins pushed ob at SEA 16 for 12 yards (J.Jobe).

    EPA+0.82
    WPA (home)-17.5%
    Home WP51.5%
    Yards12
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetM.Hollins
    PredictedPass 87%✓correct
  5. Q4 0:32NE2nd & 17 at SEA 2810–13

    Timeout #2 by NE at 00:32.

    WPA (home)+1.4%
    Home WP69.0%
  6. Q4 0:38NE1st & 10 at SEA 2110–13

    (Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at SEA 28 for -7 yards (D.Hall).

    EPA+0.41
    WPA (home)+13.0%
    Home WP67.7%
    PredictedPass 79%✓correct
  7. Q4 0:44NE3rd & 1 at SEA 2710–13

    G.Van Roten reported in as eligible. D.Maye scrambles left end ran ob at SEA 21 for 6 yards (J.Jobe).

    EPA+1.35
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP54.7%
    Yards6
    PredictedPass 75%×incorrect
  8. Q4 0:44NE3rd & 1 at SEA 2710–13

    Timeout #1 by NE at 00:44.

    WPA (home)+7.8%
    Home WP54.8%
  9. Q4 1:22NE2nd & 2 at SEA 2810–13

    D.Maye pass short left to D.Douglas to SEA 27 for 1 yard (N.Pritchett).

    EPA+1.37
    WPA (home)+0.3%
    Home WP46.9%
    Yards1
    Air zoneshort left
    TargetD.Douglas
    PredictedPass 71%✓correct
  10. Q4 1:22NE2nd & 2 at SEA 2810–13

    Timeout #3 by SEA at 01:22.

    WPA (home)-0.1%
    Home WP46.7%
  11. Q4 1:30NE1st & 10 at SEA 3610–13

    R.Stevenson up the middle to SEA 28 for 8 yards (D.Hall; D.Witherspoon).

    EPA+2.32
    WPA (home)-11.2%
    Home WP46.8%
    Yards8
    PredictedPass 79%×incorrect
  12. Q4 2:00NE4th & 9 at SEA 4710–13

    (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to M.Hollins to SEA 36 for 11 yards (E.Jones).

    EPA+3.00
    WPA (home)-20.3%
    Home WP58.0%
    Yards11
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetM.Hollins
    PredictedPass 92%✓correct
  13. Q4 2:00NE4th & 9 at SEA 4710–13

    Timeout #2 by SEA at 02:00.

    WPA (home)+0.2%
    Home WP78.2%
  14. Q4 2:00NE4th & 9 at SEA 4710–13

    Two-Minute Warning

    WPA (home)+0.5%
    Home WP78.1%
  15. Q4 2:10NE3rd & 19 at NE 4310–13

    (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short left to H.Henry to SEA 47 for 10 yards (E.Jones).

    EPA+3.80
    WPA (home)-5.8%
    Home WP77.6%
    Yards10
    Air zoneshort left
    TargetH.Henry
    PredictedPass 88%✓correct
  16. Q4 2:16NE2nd & 17 at NE 4510–13

    (Shotgun) D.Maye sacked ob at NE 43 for -2 yards (D.Thomas).

    EPA-0.95
    WPA (home)+7.4%
    Home WP83.4%
    PredictedPass 69%✓correct
  17. Q4 2:59NE1st & 15 at NE 4710–13

    (Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to L.Larison to NE 45 for -2 yards (J.Jobe).

    EPA-1.11
    WPA (home)+4.2%
    Home WP76.0%
    Yards-2
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetL.Larison
    PredictedPass 67%✓correct
  18. Q4 3:03NE1st & 10 at SEA 4810–13

    (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short right.PENALTY on NE-A.Vera-Tucker, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 48 - No Play.

    WPA (home)+8.7%
    Home WP71.8%
  19. Q4 3:42NE1st & 10 at NE 4010–13

    R.Stevenson right guard to SEA 48 for 12 yards (D.Witherspoon; R.Thomas).

    EPA+0.86
    WPA (home)-4.4%
    Home WP63.1%
    Yards12
    PredictedPass 55%×incorrect
  20. Q4 3:49NE4th & 2 at NE 3510–13

    (Shotgun) D.Maye scrambles right end ran ob at NE 40 for 5 yards (D.Thomas).

    EPA+2.19
    WPA (home)-13.4%
    Home WP67.6%
    Yards5
    PredictedPass 55%×incorrect
  21. Q4 3:55NE3rd & 2 at NE 3510–13

    (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete short left to R.Doubs.

    EPA-0.85
    WPA (home)+11.8%
    Home WP80.9%
    Yards0
    Air zoneshort left
    TargetR.Doubs (inc)
    PredictedRun 50%×incorrect
  22. Q4 4:41NE2nd & 21 at NE 1610–13

    (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep middle to M.Hollins to NE 35 for 19 yards (R.Thomas).

    EPA+1.71
    WPA (home)-9.2%
    Home WP69.1%
    Yards19
    Air zonedeep middle
    TargetM.Hollins
    PredictedPass 68%✓correct
  23. Q4 5:22NE1st & 20 at NE 1710–13

    (Shotgun) D.Maye sacked at NE 16 for -1 yards (L.Williams).

    EPA-1.12
    WPA (home)+1.6%
    Home WP78.3%
    PredictedPass 66%✓correct
  24. Q4 5:45NE1st & 10 at NE 2710–13

    R.Stevenson left tackle to NE 33 for 6 yards (J.Love).PENALTY on NE-W.Campbell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 27 - No Play.

    WPA (home)+7.9%
    Home WP76.7%
  25. Q4 5:50SEA10–13

    J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to NE 0. L.Larison to NE 27 for 27 yards (C.O'Toole; B.Russell).

    WPA (home)-1.4%
    Home WP68.9%
  26. Q4 5:50SEA & Goal at SEA 3510–13

    Official Timeout at 05:50.

    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP70.3%
  27. Q4 5:50SEA4th & 6 at NE 8Score10–13

    J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.

    WPA (home)+2.5%
    Home WP70.3%
  28. Q4 5:56SEA3rd & 6 at NE 810–10

    (Shotgun) D.Lock pass incomplete short left to J.Smith-Njigba.

    EPA-1.63
    WPA (home)-6.5%
    Home WP67.8%
    Yards0
    Air zoneshort left
    TargetJ.Smith-Njigba (inc)
    PredictedPass 86%✓correct
  29. Q4 5:59SEA2nd & 6 at NE 810–10

    (Shotgun) D.Lock pass incomplete short right to J.Smith-Njigba (C.Gonzalez).

    EPA-0.70
    WPA (home)-3.4%
    Home WP74.3%
    Yards0
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetJ.Smith-Njigba (inc)
    PredictedPass 54%✓correct
  30. Q4 5:59SEA2nd & 1 at NE 310–10

    PENALTY on SEA, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NE 3 - No Play.

    WPA (home)-2.7%
    Home WP77.7%

Box score

Box score

Team statsNESEA
Total yards277285
Yards / play4.15.9
Turnovers30
3rd down5-162-11
Red zone1-20-2
Possession34:1725:43

New England Patriots

PassingC/ATTYDSTDINT
D.Maye23/3317813
RushingCARYDSYPCTD
R.Stevenson18512.80
D.Maye7476.70
C.Kiner6111.80
ReceivingREC/TGTYDSTD
M.Hollins4/5510
R.Stevenson5/6440
H.Henry3/3260
A.Brown3/4260
D.Douglas5/7200
DefenseTKLSACKINT
R.Spillane800
G.Jacas310
D.Jones210
C.Woodson500

Seattle Seahawks

PassingC/ATTYDSTDINT
D.Lock16/2218710
S.Darnold1/21300
RushingCARYDSYPCTD
J.Price10525.20
G.Holani8293.60
D.Lock2136.50
E.Wilson231.50
ReceivingREC/TGTYDSTD
J.Smith-Njigba8/111221
C.Kupp2/3350
B.Russell2/2200
A.Barner2/2130
J.Price2/260
DefenseTKLSACKINT
D.Thomas910
E.Jones IV1300
J.Jobe601
N.Pritchett601