ATL @ PIT

Falcons

0-1

Steelers

1-0

Final

Pregame model pick

PIT 57.9%

Correct

Low

Model spread: PIT -2.5
Model total: 43.1
ATS pick: Pass; -0.3 pt edge
Total pick: Pass; +0.6 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

ATL spread+6.5

ATL ML+240

Over40.5

PIT spread-6.5

PIT ML-298

Under40.5

Why the model likes PIT

The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.

Market priorhelps PIT+2.3 pts · +6.6%
Opening line PIT -3, weighted 75% while the sample is 0 games
Home fieldhelps PIT+0.4 pts · +1.2%
PIT at home (1.7 pts)

Model vs. market

PIT win probability

GameLens: 58%
Market: 72%
Difference: -14%

Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.

Matchup Lens

The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.

Matchup edges appear once both teams have played.

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% PIT win probability

PIT aboveATL below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

clutchQ4 14:05
(Shotgun) C.Rush pass short right intended for Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by T.Watt at ATL 35. T.Watt for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.
WPA +23.6%EPA -8.65
touchdownQ1 1:13
(Shotgun) C.Rush pass short right to Bi.Robinson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.
WPA -10.4%EPA +3.56
clutchQ4 13:57
Br.Robinson left end to ATL 48 for 14 yards (J.Brisker; J.Ramsey).
WPA -10.4%EPA +1.01
defenseQ2 12:17
(Shotgun) C.Rush pass deep middle intended for J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by J.Brisker at ATL 41. J.Brisker pushed ob at ATL 31 for 10 yards (M.Bergeron).
WPA +9.8%EPA -5.10
defenseQ1 2:48
(Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short right to J.Warren to PIT 27 for no gain (M.Hughes, C.Thomas). FUMBLES (C.Thomas), RECOVERED by ATL-D.Deablo at PIT 25.
WPA -9.5%EPA -5.14
clutchQ4 5:01
(Shotgun) C.Rush sacked at PIT 43 for -9 yards (A.Highsmith).
WPA +8.8%EPA -2.59

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Highlight clips post during and after the game.

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

No player prop lines posted yet.

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Atlanta Falcons

deep left22/2 · 40 yds

deep middle10/1 · 0 yds

deep right20/2 · 0 yds

short left55/5 · 56 yds

short middle31/3 · 5 yds

short right84/8 · 45 yds

Line of scrimmage

21 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Pittsburgh Steelers

deep left61/6 · 28 yds

deep middle21/2 · 20 yds

deep right51/5 · 19 yds

short left129/12 · 70 yds

short middle21/2 · 6 yds

short right1211/12 · 80 yds

Line of scrimmage

39 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 73/122 (60%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00PIT13–20
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP100.0%
Q4 0:40PIT3rd & 12 at ATL 4513–20
A.Rodgers kneels to ATL 46 for -1 yards.
EPA-1.64
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedPass 82%×incorrect
Q4 1:17PIT2nd & 11 at ATL 4413–20
A.Rodgers kneels to ATL 45 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.83
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedPass 57%×incorrect
Q4 2:00PIT1st & 10 at ATL 4313–20
A.Rodgers kneels to ATL 44 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.84
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 80%✓correct
Q4 2:00PIT1st & 10 at ATL 4313–20
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 2:23PIT2nd & 6 at PIT 4813–20
J.Warren left end to ATL 43 for 9 yards (G.Dexter).
EPA+4.24
WPA (home)+1.8%
Home WP99.9%
Yards9
PredictedRun 77%✓correct
Q4 2:23PIT2nd & 6 at PIT 4813–20
Timeout #3 by ATL at 02:23.
WPA (home)+1.0%
Home WP98.0%
Q4 2:28PIT1st & 10 at PIT 4413–20
R.Dowdle right end to PIT 48 for 4 yards (M.Hughes).
EPA+3.54
WPA (home)-0.8%
Home WP97.1%
Yards4
PredictedRun 80%✓correct
Q4 2:35PIT3rd & 3 at PIT 2913–20
A.Rodgers pass short left to D.Washington pushed ob at PIT 44 for 15 yards (J.Bates).
EPA+2.11
WPA (home)+3.5%
Home WP97.9%
Yards15
Air zoneshort left
TargetD.Washington
PredictedRun 61%×incorrect
Q4 2:35PIT3rd & 3 at PIT 2913–20
Timeout #2 by ATL at 02:35.
WPA (home)+1.1%
Home WP94.4%
Q4 2:47PIT2nd & 12 at PIT 2013–20
A.Rodgers pass short left to M.Pittman to PIT 29 for 9 yards (S.Brown; S.Ebukam).
EPA+5.56
WPA (home)+2.2%
Home WP93.3%
Yards9
Air zoneshort left
TargetM.Pittman
PredictedRun 69%×incorrect
Q4 2:47PIT2nd & 12 at PIT 2013–20
Timeout #2 by PIT at 02:47.
WPA (home)+1.2%
Home WP91.1%
Q4 3:32PIT1st & 10 at PIT 2213–20
R.Dowdle right guard to PIT 20 for -2 yards (D.Deablo).
EPA+4.79
WPA (home)-3.3%
Home WP90.0%
Yards-2
PredictedRun 80%✓correct
Q4 3:36PIT2nd & 10 at PIT 813–20
A.Rodgers pass short right to D.Metcalf pushed ob at PIT 22 for 14 yards (Aj.Terrell).
EPA+1.72
WPA (home)+5.6%
Home WP93.3%
Yards14
Air zoneshort right
TargetD.Metcalf
PredictedRun 69%×incorrect
Q4 4:16PIT1st & 10 at PIT 813–20
R.Dowdle right tackle to PIT 8 for no gain (L.London).
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)-3.1%
Home WP87.6%
Yards0
PredictedRun 80%✓correct
Q4 4:20ATL4th & 14 at PIT 4313–20
J.Bailey punts 35 yards to PIT 8, Center-L.McCullough, fair catch by K.Wetjen.
WPA (home)-0.9%
Home WP90.7%
Q4 5:01ATL3rd & 5 at PIT 3413–20
(Shotgun) C.Rush sacked at PIT 43 for -9 yards (A.Highsmith).
EPA-2.59
WPA (home)+8.8%
Home WP91.6%
PredictedPass 91%✓correct
Q4 5:44ATL2nd & 10 at PIT 3913–20
(Shotgun) Bi.Robinson up the middle to PIT 34 for 5 yards (J.Brisker).
EPA-0.07
WPA (home)-1.8%
Home WP82.8%
Yards5
PredictedPass 74%×incorrect
Q4 6:21ATL1st & 10 at PIT 3913–20
(Shotgun) Br.Robinson up the middle to PIT 39 for no gain (K.Benton; N.Herbig).
EPA-0.71
WPA (home)+4.4%
Home WP84.5%
Yards0
PredictedPass 61%×incorrect
Q4 6:58ATL1st & 10 at ATL 4613–20
(Shotgun) Bi.Robinson right end pushed ob at PIT 39 for 15 yards (J.Ramsey).
EPA+1.08
WPA (home)-3.0%
Home WP80.2%
Yards15
PredictedPass 61%×incorrect
Q4 6:58ATL1st & 10 at ATL 4613–20
Official Timeout at 06:58.
WPA (home)-1.6%
Home WP83.1%
Q4 7:04PIT4th & 13 at ATL 3813–20
C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston.
WPA (home)-3.0%
Home WP84.7%
Q4 7:42PIT3rd & 5 at ATL 3013–20
(Shotgun) A.Rodgers sacked at ATL 38 for -8 yards (Z.Smith).
EPA-9.50
WPA (home)-5.4%
Home WP87.7%
PredictedPass 80%✓correct
Q4 8:26PIT2nd & 6 at ATL 3113–20
(Shotgun) A.Rodgers pass short right to R.Wilson to ATL 30 for 1 yard (J.Bates). ** Injury Update: PIT-T.Fautanu has returned to the game.
EPA-0.57
WPA (home)-0.6%
Home WP93.2%
Yards1
Air zoneshort right
TargetR.Wilson
PredictedRun 57%×incorrect
Q4 8:26PIT2nd & 6 at ATL 3113–20
Timeout #1 by PIT at 08:26.
WPA (home)+0.4%
Home WP93.7%
Q4 9:15PIT1st & 10 at ATL 3513–20
A.Rodgers pass short left to J.Warren to ATL 31 for 4 yards (Aj.Terrell; D.Deablo).
EPA+2.03
WPA (home)+0.3%
Home WP93.3%
Yards4
Air zoneshort left
TargetJ.Warren
PredictedRun 61%×incorrect
Q4 9:55PIT2nd & 2 at PIT 4813–20
J.Warren right tackle to ATL 35 for 17 yards (D.Deablo; Aj.Terrell). PIT-T.Fautanu was injured during the play.
EPA+1.50
WPA (home)+2.2%
Home WP93.0%
Yards17
PredictedRun 70%✓correct
Q4 10:35PIT1st & 10 at PIT 4013–20
J.Warren up the middle to PIT 48 for 8 yards (D.Deablo; X.Watts).
EPA+0.30
WPA (home)+0.9%
Home WP90.8%
Yards8
PredictedRun 60%✓correct
Q4 10:35ATL13–20
J.Bailey kicks 32 yards from ATL 35 to PIT 33, short of landing zone.PENALTY on ATL-J.Bailey, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at PIT 40.
WPA (home)+2.1%
Home WP90.0%
Q4 10:35ATL & Goal at ATL 3513–20
Official Timeout at 10:35.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP87.8%

Box score

Team stats	ATL	PIT
Total yards	238	264
Yards / play	4.2	4.1
Turnovers	2	1
3rd down	2-12	3-13
Red zone	0-0	1-2
Possession	31:07	28:53

Atlanta Falcons

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
C.Rush	12/22	143	1	2

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
B.Robinson	21	83	4.0
B.Robinson Jr.	9	31	3.4
D.London	1	6	6.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
B.Robinson	8/10	90	1
D.London	2/5	29	0
J.Dotson	1/4	19	0
O.Zaccheaus	1/1	5	0
K.Pitts Sr.	0/1	0	0

Defense	TKL	SACK
Z.Smith	3	2
D.Deablo	7	0
S.Brown	7	0
J.Bates III	6	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
A.Rodgers	24/40	221	1	0
C.Johnston	0/1	0	0	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
J.Warren	10	46	4.6
R.Dowdle	8	15	1.9
A.Rodgers	3	-3	-1.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
M.Pittman Jr.	3/3	58	0
P.Freiermuth	5/5	46	1
D.Metcalf	4/10	40	0
J.Warren	5/6	27	0
R.Wilson	3/6	26	0

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
T.Watt	4	2	1
P.Wilson	13	0	0
A.Highsmith	3	2	0
J.Brisker	6	0	1

Model breakdown

Why the model likes PIT

Model vs. market

Matchup Lens

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Pittsburgh Steelers