gameLens

Ravens

1-0

41

Colts

0-1

23

Final

Final · Game report

Baltimore Ravens rout IND, 41-23

Baltimore Ravens controlled this one from start to finish and won by 18.

Play for play, BAL had the more efficient offense: +0.14 EPA per play for BAL versus -0.42 for IND.

GameLens had BAL at 56% before kickoff, and the pick came in.

Play of the game · Q2 6:54 · 10% win-prob swing

(Shotgun) L.Jackson pass short middle to Z.Flowers for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.

How it was won

  • Turnover battle: BAL won it 2-1, and that margin mattered in a 18-point game.
  • Red zone: IND finished drives (3-3) while BAL stalled (3-4).
  • BAL won on the ground, averaging 0.41 EPA per run compared with 0.06 per dropback.
Team stat comparison
BALStatIND
+0.14EPA / play-0.42
50%Success rate45%
506Total yards251
7.9Yards / play4.7
1Turnovers2
3-93rd down3-10
3-4Red zone3-3
35:20Possession24:40

Standouts

Pregame model pick

BAL 56.5%

Correct · ATS loss

Low
Model spread
IND +2
Model total
48.4
ATS pick
IND +3.5
+1.3 pt edge
Total pick
Pass
-1.1 pt edge
Market · DraftKings
BAL spread-3
BAL ML-162
Over48.5
IND spread+3
IND ML+136
Under48.5

Model breakdown

Why the model likes BAL

The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.

  • Market priorhelps BAL+2.6 pts · +7.7%

    Opening line BAL -3.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 0 games

  • Home fieldhurts BAL-0.4 pts · -1.2%

    IND at home (1.7 pts)

Model vs. market

BAL win probability

GameLens
56%
Market
59%
Difference
-3%

Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.

Matchup Lens

The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.

Matchup edges appear once both teams have played.

Momentum tracker

0–100 score for who controls the game right now, weighted toward the most recent plays by EPA.

Final momentum

12/100BAL · Even

Last 60 plays
BALIND

Recent swing plays

  • -47Q4 3:27(Shotgun) D.Jones sacked at BLT 40 for -9 yards (M.Starks).
  • +36Q4 0:36 L.Jackson kneels to IND 47 for -1 yards.
  • +20Q4 1:18 L.Jackson kneels to IND 46 for -1 yards.

Positive values push momentum toward IND.

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

Win probability

100.0% BAL win probability

IND aboveBAL below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

Key moments

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Highlights

Highlight clips post during and after the game.

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player props

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Target maps

Baltimore Ravens
deep left52/5 · 102 yds19% of targets
deep middle20/2 · 0 yds7% of targets
deep right11/1 · 18 yds4% of targets
short left54/5 · 53 yds19% of targets
short middle66/6 · 115 yds22% of targets
short right84/8 · 36 yds30% of targets
Line of scrimmage

27 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Indianapolis Colts
deep left0—
deep middle31/3 · 23 yds10% of targets
deep right10/1 · 0 yds3% of targets
short left86/8 · 42 yds27% of targets
short middle95/9 · 60 yds30% of targets
short right97/9 · 28 yds30% of targets
Line of scrimmage

30 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-by-play

Play-call model: 79/117 (68%) run/pass correct

  1. Q4 0:00BAL41–23

    END GAME

    WPA (home)-0.1%
    Home WP0.0%
  2. Q4 0:36BAL3rd & 12 at IND 4641–23

    L.Jackson kneels to IND 47 for -1 yards.

    EPA-1.56
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP0.1%
    Yards-1
    PredictedRun 58%✓correct
  3. Q4 1:18BAL2nd & 11 at IND 4541–23

    L.Jackson kneels to IND 46 for -1 yards.

    EPA-0.83
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP0.1%
    Yards-1
    PredictedRun 83%✓correct
  4. Q4 2:00BAL1st & 10 at IND 4441–23

    L.Jackson kneels to IND 45 for -1 yards.

    EPA-0.84
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP0.1%
    Yards-1
    PredictedRun 89%✓correct
  5. Q4 2:00BAL1st & 10 at IND 4441–23

    Two-Minute Warning

    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP0.1%
  6. Q4 2:38BAL2nd & 1 at BAL 4941–23

    J.Hill right end to IND 44 for 7 yards (C.Ward).

    EPA+3.89
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP0.1%
    Yards7
    PredictedRun 93%✓correct
  7. Q4 3:22BAL1st & 10 at BAL 4041–23

    C.Vinson reported in as eligible. D.Henry right end to BLT 49 for 9 yards (A.Davis-Gaither).

    EPA+0.43
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP0.1%
    Yards9
    PredictedRun 89%✓correct
  8. Q4 3:27IND4th & 11 at BAL 3141–23

    (Shotgun) D.Jones sacked at BLT 40 for -9 yards (M.Starks).

    EPA-3.93
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP0.1%
    PredictedPass 97%✓correct
  9. Q4 3:27IND4th & 6 at BAL 2641–23

    (Shotgun) PENALTY on IND, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 26 - No Play.

    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP0.1%
  10. Q4 3:33IND3rd & 6 at BAL 2641–23

    (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Jones pass incomplete short right.

    EPA-0.85
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP0.1%
    Yards0
    PredictedPass 95%✓correct
  11. Q4 3:55IND2nd & 10 at BAL 3041–23

    (Shotgun) D.Jones pass short right to K.Allen to BLT 26 for 4 yards (M.Humphrey).

    EPA-0.19
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP0.1%
    Yards4
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetK.Allen
    PredictedPass 85%✓correct
  12. Q4 4:00IND1st & 10 at BAL 3041–23

    (Shotgun) D.Jones pass incomplete deep right to J.Downs. ** Injury Update: BLT-M.Humphrey has returned to the game.

    EPA-0.71
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP0.1%
    Yards0
    Air zonedeep right
    TargetJ.Downs (inc)
    PredictedPass 77%✓correct
  13. Q4 4:09BAL41–23

    T.Loop kicks 61 yards from BLT 35 to IND 4. S.McGowan ran ob at BLT 30 for 66 yards (C.Jones).

    WPA (home)+0.1%
    Home WP0.2%
  14. Q4 4:09BAL4th & 3 at IND 27Score41–23

    T.Loop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.

    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP0.1%
  15. Q4 4:13BAL4th & 3 at IND 2738–23

    Timeout #1 by BLT at 04:13.

    WPA (home)-0.1%
    Home WP0.1%
  16. Q4 4:58BAL3rd & 5 at IND 2938–23

    (Shotgun) J.Hill right guard to IND 27 for 2 yards (B.Boettcher; T.Smith).

    EPA+1.35
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP0.2%
    Yards2
    PredictedRun 52%✓correct
  17. Q4 5:44BAL2nd & 5 at IND 2938–23

    C.Vinson reported in as eligible. J.Hill right end to IND 29 for no gain (B.Boettcher; A.Davis-Gaither).

    EPA-0.70
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP0.2%
    Yards0
    PredictedRun 69%✓correct
  18. Q4 6:24BAL1st & 10 at IND 3438–23

    (Shotgun) D.Henry left guard to IND 29 for 5 yards (T.Smith).

    EPA-0.08
    WPA (home)-0.1%
    Home WP0.2%
    Yards5
    PredictedRun 72%✓correct
  19. Q4 7:01BAL2nd & 9 at IND 4438–23

    (Shotgun) L.Jackson pass short right to J.Hill pushed ob at IND 34 for 10 yards (L.Latu).

    EPA+1.38
    WPA (home)-0.4%
    Home WP0.3%
    Yards10
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetJ.Hill
    PredictedRun 59%×incorrect
  20. Q4 7:42BAL1st & 10 at IND 4538–23

    D.Henry right tackle to IND 44 for 1 yard (J.Tillery).

    EPA-0.59
    WPA (home)+0.1%
    Home WP0.7%
    Yards1
    PredictedRun 72%✓correct
  21. Q4 8:22BAL2nd & 8 at BAL 4238–23

    C.Vinson reported in as eligible. L.Jackson pass short right to M.Andrews to IND 45 for 13 yards (C.Bynum).

    EPA+1.54
    WPA (home)-0.6%
    Home WP0.6%
    Yards13
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetM.Andrews
    PredictedRun 59%×incorrect
  22. Q4 9:04BAL1st & 10 at BAL 4038–23

    (Shotgun) C.Vinson reported in as eligible. D.Henry left tackle to BLT 42 for 2 yards (A.Haulcy).

    EPA-0.46
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP1.2%
    Yards2
    PredictedRun 72%✓correct
  23. Q4 9:45BAL2nd & 4 at BAL 3638–23

    D.Henry left tackle to BLT 40 for 4 yards (B.Boettcher; J.Tillery).

    EPA+0.67
    WPA (home)-0.3%
    Home WP1.2%
    Yards4
    PredictedRun 68%✓correct
  24. Q4 10:22BAL1st & 10 at BAL 3038–23

    D.Henry left tackle to BLT 36 for 6 yards (A.Davis-Gaither).

    EPA+0.05
    WPA (home)-0.1%
    Home WP1.5%
    Yards6
    PredictedRun 71%✓correct
  25. Q4 10:26IND38–23

    S.Shrader kicks 60 yards from IND 35 to BLT 5. C.Moore to BLT 30 for 25 yards (A.Adebawore; C.Curry).

    WPA (home)-0.1%
    Home WP1.6%
  26. Q4 10:26IND & Goal at BAL 1538–23

    Official Timeout at 10:26.

    WPA (home)+0.1%
    Home WP1.7%
  27. Q4 10:26IND1st & Goal at BAL 9Score38–23

    (Shotgun) D.Jones pass short middle to T.Warren for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.

    EPA+1.22
    WPA (home)+0.7%
    Home WP1.6%
    Yards9
    Air zoneshort middle
    TargetT.Warren
    PredictedPass 71%✓correct
  28. Q4 11:02IND2nd & 4 at BAL 3238–16

    (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Jones pass deep middle to A.Pierce to BLT 9 for 23 yards (R.Smith; M.Starks). BLT-M.Humphrey was injured during the play.

    EPA+2.07
    WPA (home)+0.2%
    Home WP0.9%
    Yards23
    Air zonedeep middle
    TargetA.Pierce
    PredictedPass 82%✓correct
  29. Q4 11:26IND1st & 10 at BAL 3838–16

    (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left to K.Allen to BLT 32 for 6 yards (T.Hendrickson).

    EPA+0.05
    WPA (home)+0.1%
    Home WP0.7%
    Yards6
    Air zoneshort left
    TargetK.Allen
    PredictedPass 79%✓correct
  30. Q4 11:47IND1st & 10 at IND 4838–16

    (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left to A.Pierce pushed ob at BLT 38 for 14 yards (M.Humphrey).

    EPA+1.01
    WPA (home)+0.1%
    Home WP0.7%
    Yards14
    Air zoneshort left
    TargetA.Pierce
    PredictedPass 79%✓correct

Box score

Box score

Team statsBALIND
Total yards506251
Yards / play7.94.7
Turnovers12
3rd down3-93-10
Red zone3-43-3
Possession35:2024:40

Baltimore Ravens

PassingC/ATTYDSTDINT
L.Jackson17/2532410
RushingCARYDSYPCTD
D.Henry241446.03
L.Jackson7405.71
J.Hill6183.00
ReceivingREC/TGTYDSTD
Z.Flowers5/61501
C.Moore1/2530
M.Andrews4/6490
D.Henry1/1190
L.Wester2/2150
DefenseTKLSACKINT
R.Smith1101
M.Starks710
T.Robinson310
K.Hamilton500

Indianapolis Colts

PassingC/ATTYDSTDINT
D.Jones19/3116611
RushingCARYDSYPCTD
J.Taylor19985.22
D.Jones144.00
ReceivingREC/TGTYDSTD
A.Pierce4/6610
J.Downs2/4370
K.Allen6/6320
J.Taylor3/4230
T.Warren3/5131
DefenseTKLSACKINT
L.Latu60.50
A.Davis-Gaither800
A.Key50.50
C.Bynum700