Bears
1-0
59
Panthers
0-1
37
Final
Final · Game report
Chicago Bears rout CAR, 59-37
Chicago Bears controlled this one from start to finish and won by 22.
Play for play, CHI had the more efficient offense: +0.65 EPA per play for CHI versus +0.21 for CAR.
GameLens had CHI at 54% before kickoff, and the pick came in.
Play of the game · Q4 2:00 · 59% win-prob swing
(Shotgun) K.Pickett pass incomplete short left to Ji.Horn.
How it was won
- Turnover battle: CHI won it 3-1, and that margin mattered in a 22-point game.
- Third downs: CHI converted 10-14, which kept drives alive and the other offense off the field.
- CHI won through the air, averaging 0.79 EPA per dropback compared with 0.61 per run.
| CHI | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| +0.65 | EPA / play | +0.21 |
| 53% | Success rate | 48% |
| 552 | Total yards | 478 |
| 7.9 | Yards / play | 7.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 10-14 | 3rd down | 4-9 |
| 4-4 | Red zone | 4-4 |
| 34:03 | Possession | 25:57 |
Pregame model pick
CHI 54.3%
Correct · ATS loss
- Model spread
- CAR +1.5
- Model total
- 44.6
- ATS pick
- CAR +2.5
- +1.1 pt edge
- Total pick
- Pass
- +0.1 pt edge
Model breakdown
Why the model likes CHI
The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.
- Market priorhelps CHI+1.9 pts · +5.5%
Opening line CHI -2.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 0 games
- Home fieldhurts CHI-0.4 pts · -1.2%
CAR at home (1.7 pts)
Model vs. market
CHI win probability
- GameLens
- 54%
- Market
- 60%
- Difference
- -6%
Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.
Matchup Lens
The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.
Matchup edges appear once both teams have played.
Momentum tracker
0–100 score for who controls the game right now, weighted toward the most recent plays by EPA.
Final momentum
65/100CAR · Surging
Recent swing plays
- +82Q4 2:24(Shotgun) A.Dillon left end to CAR 44 for 6 yards (D.Bush; T.Stevenson).
- +48Q4 2:00Two-Minute Warning
- +27Q4 3:03A.Dillon left tackle to CAR 38 for 11 yards (D.Bush; D.Thieneman).
Positive values push momentum toward CAR.
Live win probability
Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.
Win probability
100.0% CHI win probability
Key moments
Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.
Key moments
- clutchQ4 2:00
Two-Minute Warning
WPA +59.4% - clutchQ4 2:00
(Shotgun) K.Pickett pass incomplete short left to Ji.Horn.
WPA -59.4%EPA +5.02 - touchdownQ2 0:22
(Shotgun) C.Williams scrambles left end for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-B.Gardner, Holder-T.Taylor.
WPA -12.1%EPA +2.69 - big playQ2 3:41
(Shotgun) B.Young pass deep right to J.Brooks to CHI 26 for 48 yards (J.Johnson).
WPA +10.4%EPA +4.17 - touchdownQ3 0:40
K.Monangai up the middle for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CAR-B.Brown has returned to the game. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-B.Gardner, Holder-T.Taylor.
WPA -9.2%EPA +4.99 - big playQ1 3:01
(Shotgun) C.Williams pass deep right to R.Odunze pushed ob at CAR 6 for 47 yards (W.Lee). CAR-B.Brown was injured during the play.
WPA -8.9%EPA +4.10
Highlights
Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.
Highlights
Highlight clips post during and after the game.
Player props
Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.
Player props
Passing target maps
Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.
Target maps
28 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
36 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
Play-by-play
EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.
Play-by-play
Play-call model: 81/131 (62%) run/pass correct
- Q4 0:00CAR59–37
END GAME
WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP0.0% - Q4 0:34CAR2nd & 6 at CHI 2859–37
A.Dillon up the middle to CHI 28 for no gain (J.Lynch; D.Bush).
EPA-3.89WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards0PredictedPass 94%×incorrect - Q4 1:12CAR1st & 10 at CHI 3259–37
A.Dillon up the middle to CHI 28 for 4 yards (D.Jackson; T.Edwards).
EPA-0.21WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards4PredictedPass 93%×incorrect - Q4 1:57CAR3rd & 4 at CAR 4459–37
(Shotgun) K.Pickett scrambles right end to CHI 32 for 24 yards (D.Thieneman).
EPA+2.81WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards24PredictedPass 97%×incorrect - Q4 2:00CAR2nd & 4 at CAR 4459–37
(Shotgun) K.Pickett pass incomplete short left to Ji.Horn.
EPA+5.02WPA (home)-59.4%Home WP0.1%Yards0Air zoneshort leftTargetJi.Horn (inc)PredictedPass 84%✓correct - Q4 2:00CAR2nd & 4 at CAR 440–0
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)+59.4%Home WP59.5% - Q4 2:24CAR1st & 10 at CAR 3859–37
(Shotgun) A.Dillon left end to CAR 44 for 6 yards (D.Bush; T.Stevenson).
EPA+4.08WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards6PredictedPass 82%×incorrect - Q4 3:03CAR2nd & 3 at CAR 2759–37
A.Dillon left tackle to CAR 38 for 11 yards (D.Bush; D.Thieneman).
EPA+1.12WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards11PredictedPass 75%×incorrect - Q4 3:40CAR1st & 10 at CAR 2059–37
(Shotgun) A.Dillon up the middle to CAR 27 for 7 yards (T.Stevenson; A.Booker).
EPA+0.17WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards7PredictedPass 81%×incorrect - Q4 3:40CHI59–37
C.Santos kicks 65 yards from CHI 35 to landing zone to end zone, Touchback to the CAR 20.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 3:40CHI2nd & 1 at CAR 28Score59–37
D.Swift right guard for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-B.Gardner, Holder-T.Taylor.
EPA+2.84WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards28PredictedRun 94%✓correct - Q4 3:47CHI2nd & 1 at CAR 2852–37
Timeout #3 by CAR at 03:47.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 3:52CHI1st & 10 at CAR 3752–37
K.Monangai left tackle to CAR 28 for 9 yards (J.Moon).
EPA+2.44WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards9PredictedRun 87%✓correct - Q4 3:52CHI3rd & 3 at CAR 4252–37
PENALTY on CAR-T.Gipson, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 42 - No Play.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 3:52CHI3rd & 3 at CAR 4252–37
Timeout #2 by CAR at 03:52.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 3:55CHI2nd & 6 at CAR 4552–37
K.Monangai right tackle to CAR 42 for 3 yards (N.Scott).
EPA+2.70WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards3PredictedRun 85%✓correct - Q4 3:55CHI2nd & 6 at CAR 4552–37
Timeout #1 by CAR at 03:55.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1% - Q4 3:59CHI1st & 10 at CAR 4952–37
K.Monangai right guard to CAR 45 for 4 yards (L.Hunter).
EPA+3.03WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards4PredictedRun 87%✓correct - Q4 4:00CAR52–37
S.Martin kicks onside 14 yards from CAR 35 to CAR 49. R.Odunze (didn't try to advance) to CAR 49 for no gain.
WPA (home)-0.2%Home WP0.1% - Q4 4:00CAR2nd & Goal at CHI 8Score52–37
(No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Young pass short left to J.Coker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. R.Fitzgerald extra point is Blocked (D.Odeyingbo), Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.
EPA+1.78WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP0.3%Yards8Air zoneshort leftTargetJ.CokerPredictedPass 83%✓correct - Q4 4:35CAR1st & Goal at CHI 1152–31
(Shotgun) B.Young scrambles up the middle to CHI 8 for 3 yards (J.Lynch).
EPA-0.36WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.2%Yards3PredictedPass 87%×incorrect - Q4 4:38CAR1st & Goal at CHI 152–31
(Shotgun) B.Young pass short left to M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty.PENALTY on CAR-J.Coker, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 1 - No Play.
WPA (home)-0.2%Home WP0.1%Air zoneshort leftTargetM.Evans - Q4 4:42CAR1st & 10 at CHI 1952–31
(Shotgun) B.Young pass short left to T.McMillan pushed ob at CHI 1 for 18 yards (M.Muhammad) [D.Bush].
EPA+1.54WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP0.3%Yards18Air zoneshort leftTargetT.McMillanPredictedPass 80%✓correct - Q4 4:50CAR2nd & 10 at CHI 3452–31
(Shotgun) B.Young pass short right to T.McMillan ran ob at CHI 19 for 15 yards.
EPA+1.80WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards15Air zoneshort rightTargetT.McMillanPredictedPass 88%✓correct - Q4 4:55CAR1st & 10 at CHI 3452–31
(No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Young pass incomplete short left.
EPA-0.72WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards0PredictedPass 80%✓correct - Q4 5:30CAR3rd & 10 at CAR 3752–31
(Shotgun) B.Young pass short middle to C.Hubbard to CHI 34 for 29 yards (T.Stevenson).
EPA+3.50WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards29Air zoneshort middleTargetC.HubbardPredictedPass 96%✓correct - Q4 5:35CAR2nd & 10 at CAR 3752–31
(Shotgun) B.Young pass incomplete deep left to T.McMillan [D.Thieneman].
EPA-0.70WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards0Air zonedeep leftTargetT.McMillan (inc)PredictedPass 87%✓correct - Q4 5:43CAR1st & 10 at CAR 3752–31
(No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Young pass incomplete deep right.
EPA-0.72WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards0PredictedPass 80%✓correct - Q4 6:15CAR2nd & 10 at CAR 2452–31
(Shotgun) B.Young pass short left to J.Coker to CAR 37 for 13 yards (C.Lewis).
EPA+1.65WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards13Air zoneshort leftTargetJ.CokerPredictedPass 87%✓correct - Q4 6:20CAR1st & 10 at CAR 2452–31
(Shotgun) B.Young pass incomplete deep right to X.Legette.
EPA-0.72WPA (home)0.0%Home WP0.1%Yards0Air zonedeep rightTargetX.Legette (inc)PredictedPass 79%✓correct
Box score
Box score
| Team stats | CHI | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 552 | 478 |
| Yards / play | 7.9 | 7.7 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 3 |
| 3rd down | 10-14 | 4-9 |
| Red zone | 4-4 | 4-4 |
| Possession | 34:03 | 25:57 |
Chicago Bears
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 C.Williams | 21/29 | 269 | 2 | 0 |
| Rushing | CAR | YDS | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 D.Swift | 18 | 124 | 6.9 | 3 |
 K.Monangai | 10 | 100 | 10.0 | 1 |
| C.Williams | 10 | 65 | 6.5 | 2 |
 L.Burden III | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 K.Raymond | 8/9 | 84 | 0 |
| L.Burden III | 5/5 | 63 | 0 |
 R.Odunze | 2/3 | 52 | 0 |
 C.Kmet | 2/3 | 35 | 1 |
| K.Monangai | 2/2 | 24 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 D.Thieneman | 10 | 0 | 0 |
 T.Stevenson Sr. | 9 | 0 | 0 |
 M.Muhammad II | 3 | 0 | 1 |
 K.Street | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Carolina Panthers
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 J.Coker | 8/9 | 138 | 2 |
 T.McMillan | 5/8 | 75 | 0 |
 J.Brooks | 1/2 | 48 | 0 |
 C.Hubbard | 3/3 | 38 | 1 |
 D.Waller | 2/2 | 28 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 D.Lloyd | 13 | 0 | 0 |
 J.Phillips | 3 | 1 | 0 |
 P.Umanmielen | 3 | 1 | 0 |
 N.Scott | 7 | 0 | 0 |