Dolphins
0-1
13
Raiders
1-0
27
Final
Pregame model pick
LV 57.9%
Correct
- Model spread
- LV -2.5
- Model total
- 42.4
- ATS pick
- Pass
- -0.3 pt edge
- Total pick
- Pass
- +0.9 pt edge
Model breakdown
Why the model likes LV
The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.
- Market priorhelps LV+2.3 pts · +6.6%
Opening line LV -3, weighted 75% while the sample is 0 games
- Home fieldhelps LV+0.4 pts · +1.2%
LV at home (1.7 pts)
Model vs. market
LV win probability
- GameLens
- 58%
- Market
- 60%
- Difference
- -3%
Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.
Matchup Lens
The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.
Matchup edges appear once both teams have played.
Live win probability
Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.
Win probability
100.0% LV win probability
Key moments
Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.
Key moments
- big playQ2 5:35
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass deep right to C.Douglas pushed ob at LV 22 for 25 yards (T.Stukes).
WPA -8.6%EPA +2.48 - touchdownQ3 12:44
(Shotgun) M.Willis scrambles right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. R.Patterson extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.
WPA -8.4%EPA +2.32 - touchdownQ2 1:07
(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short middle to A.Jeanty for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.
WPA +6.3%EPA +2.84 - touchdownQ1 1:33
(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short middle to J.Bech for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.
WPA +6.0%EPA +2.76 - touchdownQ3 9:58
K.Cousins pass short left to A.Jeanty for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.
WPA +5.4%EPA +1.54 - defenseQ3 14:34
(No Huddle, Shotgun) K.Cousins pass deep left intended for J.Bech INTERCEPTED by M.Taaffe at MIA 46. M.Taaffe to MIA 48 for 2 yards (J.Bech).
WPA -5.3%EPA -4.04
Highlights
Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.
Highlights
Highlight clips post during and after the game.
Player props
Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.
Player props
Passing target maps
Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.
Target maps
30 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
29 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards
Play-by-play
EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.
Play-by-play
Play-call model: 79/117 (68%) run/pass correct
- Q4 0:00LV13–27
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP100.0% - Q4 0:36LV3rd & 15 at MIA 3913–27
K.Cousins kneels to MIA 40 for -1 yards.
EPA-1.90WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-1PredictedRun 51%✓correct - Q4 1:07LV2nd & 13 at MIA 3713–27
K.Cousins kneels to MIA 39 for -2 yards.
EPA-0.95WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-2PredictedRun 78%✓correct - Q4 1:51LV1st & 10 at MIA 3413–27
K.Cousins kneels to MIA 37 for -3 yards.
EPA-1.10WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards-3PredictedRun 86%✓correct - Q4 2:00MIA3rd & 13 at MIA 10Turnover13–27
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass deep middle to M.Washington to MIA 36 for 26 yards (J.Chinn). FUMBLES (J.Chinn), RECOVERED by LV-Q.Walker at MIA 34.
EPA-2.29WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards0Air zonedeep middleTargetM.WashingtonPredictedPass 94%✓correct - Q4 2:00MIA3rd & 13 at MIA 1013–27
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9% - Q4 2:20MIA2nd & 22 at MIA 113–27
(Shotgun) M.Willis scrambles left end pushed ob at MIA 10 for 9 yards (N.Dean).
EPA+6.92WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards9PredictedPass 82%×incorrect - Q4 3:01MIA1st & 16 at MIA 713–27
(Shotgun) M.Willis sacked at MIA 1 for -6 yards (K.Paye).
EPA-1.64WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%PredictedPass 81%✓correct - Q4 3:07MIA1st & 10 at MIA 1313–27
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short left to D.Achane ran ob at MIA 29 for 16 yards.PENALTY on MIA-A.Jackson, Illegal Use of Hands, 6 yards, enforced at MIA 13 - No Play.
WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP99.9%Air zoneshort leftTargetD.Achane - Q4 3:11MIA2nd & 5 at MIA 813–27
(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete short right to M.Washington (M.Crosby).PENALTY on LV-H.Masses, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 8 - No Play.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.8%Air zoneshort rightTargetM.Washington - Q4 3:29MIA1st & 10 at MIA 313–27
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short left to D.Achane to MIA 8 for 5 yards (Q.Walker).
EPA-0.08WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.9%Yards5Air zoneshort leftTargetD.AchanePredictedPass 72%✓correct - Q4 3:40LV4th & 15 at LV 4213–27
A.Cole punts 55 yards to MIA 3, impetus ends at MIA 1, Center-A.Ward, downed by LV-D.Young.
WPA (home)+0.3%Home WP99.9% - Q4 3:40LV4th & 10 at LV 4713–27
(Punt formation) PENALTY on LV-A.Ward, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LV 47 - No Play.
WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP99.5% - Q4 3:40LV4th & 10 at LV 4713–27
Timeout #3 by MIA at 03:40.
WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP99.6% - Q4 3:46LV3rd & 13 at LV 4413–27
M.Washington left guard to LV 47 for 3 yards (Z.Biggers).
EPA+3.35WPA (home)-0.1%Home WP99.5%Yards3PredictedRun 50%✓correct - Q4 3:46LV3rd & 13 at LV 4413–27
Timeout #2 by MIA at 03:46.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.6% - Q4 3:51LV2nd & 10 at LV 4713–27
A.Jeanty up the middle to LV 44 for -3 yards (Z.Sieler).
EPA+2.95WPA (home)-0.2%Home WP99.6%Yards-3PredictedRun 78%✓correct - Q4 3:51LV2nd & 10 at LV 4713–27
Timeout #1 by MIA at 03:51.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.7% - Q4 3:58LV1st & 10 at LV 4713–27
A.Jeanty left tackle to LV 47 for no gain (J.Brooks).
EPA+3.10WPA (home)-0.2%Home WP99.7%Yards0PredictedRun 86%✓correct - Q4 4:04MIA4th & 12 at LV 4613–27
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete short right to K.Coleman.
EPA-3.30WPA (home)+0.2%Home WP99.9%Yards0Air zoneshort rightTargetK.Coleman (inc)PredictedPass 96%✓correct - Q4 4:04MIA4th & 7 at LV 4113–27
(Shotgun) PENALTY on MIA, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at LV 41 - No Play.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP99.6% - Q4 4:10MIA3rd & 7 at LV 4113–27
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete short middle to C.Douglas (T.Hemingway).
EPA-0.85WPA (home)+1.1%Home WP99.6%Yards0Air zoneshort middleTargetC.Douglas (inc)PredictedPass 94%✓correct - Q4 4:46MIA2nd & 10 at LV 4413–27
(Shotgun) M.Willis scrambles up the middle to LV 41 for 3 yards (N.Dean).
EPA-0.32WPA (home)+0.1%Home WP98.5%Yards3PredictedPass 82%×incorrect - Q4 4:51MIA1st & 10 at LV 4413–27
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete short left to K.Coleman (H.Masses) [T.Booker].
EPA-0.72WPA (home)+1.0%Home WP98.4%Yards0Air zoneshort leftTargetK.Coleman (inc)PredictedPass 72%✓correct - Q4 5:21MIA2nd & 11 at MIA 2613–27
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass deep middle to M.Washington to LV 44 for 30 yards (T.Stukes). LV-D.Porter was injured during the play.
EPA+2.93WPA (home)-1.6%Home WP97.4%Yards30Air zonedeep middleTargetM.WashingtonPredictedPass 82%✓correct - Q4 5:54MIA1st & 10 at MIA 2713–27
(Shotgun) J.Wright up the middle to MIA 26 for -1 yards (T.Booker).
EPA-0.84WPA (home)+0.4%Home WP99.0%Yards-1PredictedPass 71%×incorrect - Q4 5:58MIA1st & 10 at MIA 2313–27
(Shotgun) M.Willis pass incomplete short middle to C.Douglas.PENALTY on LV-Q.Walker, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at MIA 23 - No Play.
WPA (home)0.0%Home WP98.6%Air zoneshort middleTargetC.Douglas - Q4 6:10LV4th & 12 at LV 2213–27
A.Cole punts 72 yards to MIA 6, Center-A.Ward. M.Washington to MIA 23 for 17 yards (P.Johnson).
WPA (home)+1.0%Home WP98.6% - Q4 6:57LV3rd & 9 at LV 2513–27
(Shotgun) K.Cousins up the middle to LV 22 for -3 yards (M.Herring).
EPA-0.50WPA (home)-0.3%Home WP97.6%Yards-3PredictedPass 72%×incorrect - Q4 7:44LV2nd & 7 at LV 2713–27
K.Cousins pass short left to M.Mayer to LV 25 for -2 yards (Z.Anderson).
EPA-0.95WPA (home)-0.2%Home WP98.0%Yards-2Air zoneshort leftTargetM.MayerPredictedRun 58%×incorrect
Box score
Box score
| Team stats | MIA | LV |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 259 | 290 |
| Yards / play | 5.2 | 4.3 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| 3rd down | 2-10 | 5-13 |
| Red zone | 1-3 | 3-4 |
| Possession | 25:07 | 34:53 |
Miami Dolphins
| Passing | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 M.Willis | 15/27 | 220 | 0 | 1 |
| Receiving | REC/TGT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 C.Douglas | 5/7 | 94 | 0 |
 M.Washington | 3/8 | 53 | 0 |
 D.Achane | 4/5 | 30 | 0 |
 C.Bell | 1/2 | 25 | 0 |
 G.Dulcich | 2/2 | 18 | 0 |
| Defense | TKL | SACK | INT |
|---|---|---|---|
 J.Rodriguez | 14 | 0 | 0 |
 C.Johnson | 11 | 0 | 0 |
 M.Taaffe | 4 | 0 | 1 |
 J.Brooks | 9 | 0 | 0 |
